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My main reason for posting this article is that the summer of 08 may have an impact on what we do(or teams with cap space do) in the summer of 07.
Summer of 2008 could shape up to be something special
It's the summer of 2007, which means it's time to start thinking about free agents. Oh, not this year's free agents -- I took a look at them in March, and our Chris Sheridan will have much more on that gang early next week.
No, it's time to look ahead a year.
2008 is the backdrop for the 2007 free-agent season, because some teams will be using the potential free-agent crop a year from now to guide decisions on how they manage their cap space this summer. And with Washington's Gilbert Arenas announcing recently that he plans to opt out of his contract next summer, the '08 free-agent season is unofficially underway already.
Plus, next year's class is one that -- stop me if you heard this before -- could be the best ever, provided nobody signs an extension this summer and everybody who can opt out of their contract does so.
Of course, this field inevitably will be whittled down severely by the time July of 2008 rolls around. This is particularly true in the case of players on their rookie contracts who are up for extensions this offseason.
Thus, don't expect Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Luol Deng, Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Josh Childress, Nenad Krstic, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin, Delonte West or Devin Harris to be changing teams next summer -- all of those players figure to ink deals with their current teams between now and the end of October to keep them in place for a half-decade or so.
But even without those players on the market, next summer's crop is still potentially awesome. The players essentially break into four different groups -- let's take a look at each.
Group I: The "Big 10" ETO candidates
These are the players with an "early termination option" in their contract, meaning they can opt to forgo the final year(s) of their deals and instead become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2008. In most years there are two or three big stars who have this option -- in 2008 there are 10, as the provisions of recent collective bargaining agreements kick in big-time. Here's the star-studded lineup:
1. Tim Duncan, Spurs -- Keep dreaming. Duncan can opt out after the upcoming season, but the Spurs are going to sign him to an extension this summer that keeps him in San Antonio until at least 2011. Besides, who are we kidding here? Duncan already had the opportunity to leave once and decided to stay put instead.
He's an icon in San Antonio and prefers the laid-back pace there to a bigger city. Plus he loves playing for Gregg Popovich. He's not going anywhere.
2. Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves -- Garnett's option will certainly be invoked if the Wolves don't deal him in the next 12 months, but it seems the more likely scenario is that he'll be dealt to a new team and then inked to an extension upon arrival.
Obviously, his new employers need to make sure he's up for this beforehand; already, his people have signaled to the Celtics that it's a no-go. But the sheer relief of leaving the Wolves' dire situation should make him more than happy to sign on the dotted line if dealt to one of his preapproved destinations.
3. Elton Brand, Clippers -- The Clippers would be wise to get Brand locked up to an extension. But "Clippers" and "wise" have rarely been used in the same sentence, so stay tuned. Plus, Clippers owner Donald Sterling could revert to his cheapskate ways at the snap of a finger if he decides that it's better to win 30 games with a low payroll than 40 games with a midsized one.
With Brand, Corey Maggette, Sam Cassell and Shaun Livingston all potentially coming off the books in '08, he could go back to being the league's reigning slumlord in a nanosecond.
4. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards -- Unlike the top three guys, it doesn't make sense for Arenas to extend his deal because he's not making the maximum, and thus he can get better bucks as an unrestricted free agent. That's why he went ahead and told everyone he'll be opting out of his deal in the offseason.
Presuming the top three guys all sign extensions, Arenas will be the league's most coveted free agent next summer, but at the moment all signs point to him returning to Washington.
5. Shawn Marion, Suns -- Mentioned in trade rumors nearly as often as Garnett, The Matrix is another player who would be in line for an extension this offseason and could opt out next summer. His deal is a little trickier, however, because he'll make $17.8 million in 2008-09, and there's a good chance he might have to accept less if he became a free agent.
Thus, much like Antawn Jamison and Mike Bibby this year, he might decide to take the bird in hand and play out the final year of his deal.
6. Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers -- A similar, albeit more dramatic, situation to Marion's -- both in terms of trade rumors and salary.
Jermaine is pushing $20 million per annum, and his offensive performance and durability have been in decline the past couple seasons (though not his defense, which was spectacular this season). As a result, he's likely to play his deal out through 2008-09 unless he totally blows up this year.
7. Allen Iverson, Nuggets -- Iverson isn't the best player on this list, but in terms of gate and merchandise he's pure gold. That's why he's more likely than the others to opt out -- surely somebody would gamble on his ability to draw in hordes of customers.
The interesting part comes from Denver's end -- is it willing to fork out for an extension (and likely incur more luxury tax bills) in order to keep him in the Rockies a couple more years?
8. Baron Davis, Warriors -- Davis represents a difficult calculation all around. On the one hand he's as good as any point guard in the game when he's healthy and motivated. On the other hand those two events don't coincide often. When they do, as in the Warriors' playoff run, it's amazing to watch, but that doesn't mean somebody should throw a max deal his way.
All of which explains why Davis, like a few of the guys above, may decide to stand pat and play out the last year of his deal.
9. Corey Maggette, Clippers -- The second-biggest name in the "certain free agent" crowd, Maggette has bristled under Mike Dunleavy's yoke in L.A., and he doesn't make enough for an extension to make sense anyway.
The fact that he can easily be lured to another destination should make him a major target next summer -- if he hasn't already been traded by then.
10. Ron Artest, Kings -- Talk about a roll of the dice. I have no idea what other teams would bid for Artest; I imagine several would stay away even if the price was one peso. That said, there's no denying his talent, and one has to think there's a team out there with enough spine and desperation to give it a shot.
The Kings don't seem to be giving any potential suitors the impression that they will stand in their way. It makes sense for Artest to opt out too, as his contract is a pittance relative to other players of his caliber.
Other notables: In addition to the 10 stars above, five other players have ETOs in their contracts -- Raef LaFrentz of the Blazers, Juwan Howard of the Timberwolves, Kenny Thomas of the Kings, and Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis of the Knicks -- but they aren't likely to be factors in free agency since they'd be fools to give up the final years of their excessive contracts.
Meanwhile, here are five to watch with player options: Stromile Swift of the Grizzlies, Justin Reed of the Rockets, Rasho Nesterovic of the Raptors, Keith Bogans of the Magic, and most notably Trevor Ariza also of the Magic. Ariza's current salary is way below market and he's likely to earn a much bigger payday in the summer of 2008, especially if he can take over as a starter for the possibly departing Grant Hill.
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Group II: The restricted free agents
I mentioned several first-round draft picks who are likely to sign extensions by opening day. However, a few second-rounders and European imports will be restricted free agents next summer, and unlike the first-rounders from the Class of 2004, their teams can't realistically sign them to an extension ahead of time. Their restricted status still makes it likely they'll stay put, but at least they'll be in play:
1. Monta Ellis, Warriors -- The league's Most Improved Player obviously makes for a tempting target, but one has to think the Warriors will pay what's necessary to keep him -- especially given Davis' fragility and the stinging memory of losing their last MIP winner, Gilbert Arenas, in a similar situation.
2. Jose Calderon, Raptors -- Calderon supposedly likes Toronto, but he's paid backup money and has a backup's role even though he's better than a lot of the league's starters. That should be enough to get the vultures circling, especially since the Raptors have already made a long-term commitment to T.J. Ford.
3. Craig Smith, Timberwolves -- The heir apparent at power forward once Garnett relocates (you were expecting Juwan Howard?), Smith should benefit nicely from Kevin McHale's penchant for grossly overpaying to retain his role players.
4. Walter Herrmann, Bobcats -- One of the league's better forwards down the stretch, Herrmann could earn himself a big payday if he follows it up with another strong season. He might be available, too, since nobody's really sure if the Bobcats know what they're doing.
5. Ronny Turiaf, Lakers -- I'm a little surprised the athletic French forward hasn't gotten more burn, but the Lakers had to carve out extra minutes to justify all the money they wasted on Vlad the Snow Flake. L.A.'s pain may be somebody else's gain, as Turiaf has played well in limited minutes.
6. Daniel Gibson, Cavaliers -- Teams can bid up to the midlevel exception for the unlikely hero of the Eastern Conference finals, and the Cavs will have the right to match any offer. In other words, he's probably not going anywhere.
7. Ryan Gomes, Celtics -- With so many young Celtics players to pay, will Gomes slip through the cracks in Boston? If so, several teams would love to have him as a role-playing combo forward.
8. Fabricio Oberto, Spurs -- Oberto can opt out of his deal this summer, but if he doesn't he'll be a restricted free agent next year. Role players on championship teams tend to draw crazy money, so he should benefit from the glow of the 2006 title run.
Other notables: Tarence Kinsey, Grizzlies; Alexander Johnson, Grizzlies; Salim Stoudamire, Hawks; Lynn Greer, Bucks; Mickael Gelabale, Sonics; Hassan Adams, Nets; Will Blalock, Pistons; Louis Williams, 76ers.
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Group III: More restricted free agents
In addition to those players above, a few first-rounders from the class of '04 are likely to become restricted free agents, as their teams are unlikely to agree to extensions due to uncertainty about injuries, playing time or general comportment:
1. Tony Allen, Celtics -- Allen was having a breakout year until he tore up his knee going up for a meaningless after-the-whistle dunk. Now he'll have to prove he can return to being the slashing, athletic force he was a year ago before he can sign a big-money deal.
2. J.R. Smith, Nuggets -- On talent alone, Smith is a no-brainer for an extension. But his playoff meltdown against San Antonio and subsequent offseason trouble has to give Denver's management pause. The Nuggies might wait another year to make sure Smith can keep his head on straight before they commit to him long-term.
3. Robert Swift, Sonics -- The Sonics still don't know exactly what they have in Swift after he missed all of last season with a knee injury. With new management in town there's no pressure to make a heavy investment in the previous regime's draft pick, so Swift will have to prove himself worthy to the new guys.
4. Carlos Delfino, Raptors -- The theory is that Delfino will play more consistently with a defined role, but the Raptors probably want to see how the theory works in practice before they put a lot of money behind it.
5. Randolph Morris, Knicks -- A contractual oddity after playing for both Kentucky and the Knicks in the same season last year, Morris' deal expires after this season. Depending on his development there could be quite a market for the young center.
Other notables: Shaun Livingston, Clippers; Sebastian Telfair, Celtics; Dorell Wright, Heat; Kris Humphries, Raptors; Beno Udrih, Spurs; David Harrison, Pacers; Sasha Vujacic, Lakers; Kirk Snyder, Rockets
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Group IV: The real, honest to goodness unrestricted free agents
Finally, we get to the guys who will be on the market with no strings attached -- at least, provided they don't sign extensions between now and then. Note that Vince Carter could also theoretically be on this list if he decides not to opt out of his contract this summer, but the odds on that are highly unlikely.
Basically, there are two players on this list worth making some effort to sign to a big-money deal. After that, you have a bunch of guys who will be in their late 30s by 2008-09, and a few decent role players.
1. Antawn Jamison, Wizards -- The Wizards forward declined opting out this year, but will go the unrestricted route next summer if Washington doesn't extend him. And given his age and production, it doesn't make much sense for the Wizards to give him an extension -- they can re-sign him for substantially less if they let him become a free agent. Of course, the risk of losing both Jamison and Arenas in the same summer may be more than Ernie Grunfeld is willing to contemplate.
2. Ricky Davis, Timberwolves -- Minnesota's mercurial forward might be one of the stronger unrestricted free agents next summer if none of the ETO gang sees the light of day. Davis' head isn't always in the game, but he can flat-out score and could provide a potent sixth man for the right team. Plus, he's still in his 20s -- unlike nearly everyone else on this part of the list -- and he's been extremely consistent year-to-year.
3. Antonio McDyess, Pistons -- He'll be 34 by the time the '08-09 seasons starts and he had a bad wheel, but McDyess has been an extremely effective sixth man since coming to Detroit and should get a nice payday if he can repeat the effort in 2007-08.
4. Alonzo Mourning, Heat -- He's still a quality player, especially when he can play short bursts off the bench, but the expectation is that he'll retire either this year or next. If he still wants to play, though, expect him to get plenty of attention due to his outstanding shot-blocking ability.
5. DeSagana Diop, Mavericks -- Bigs who can defend always come at a premium, regardless of their offensive talents. Diop isn't going to average double figures, but his ability to stop opposing post players and help out against penetration make him a desirable commodity.
6. Bruce Bowen, Spurs -- Bowen is one of the game's elite defenders and takes great care of himself, but he'll also be 37 next summer. One wonders how long a player dependent on quickness can keep chugging along, but several teams will be happy to give him a short-term deal to find out.
7. Kwame Brown, Lakers -- Believe it or not, Brown still will only by 26 next summer, which means some other sucker out there is likely to overpay based on his alleged potential. He's big and can defend a little, so he's not devoid of value, but you can feel the moronic offers coming already.
8. Jason Williams, Heat -- Still an extremely effective player when fully healthy, even during Miami's meltdown last season, but his body broke down a year ago and he was limited in several stretches. If he gets through this season in one piece he'll zoom up the list, but at 32 next summer he can't expect a long-term deal.
9. Sam Cassell, Clippers: He can still play when he's healthy -- really, he hasn't lost much at all. But those moments became increasingly rare as last season wore on and one wonders if his body will hold up. Given his age (38 by next summer) he's probably looking at one-year deals from here on out.
10. Brevin Knight, Bobcats -- He's 5-10 and he'll be 33 the first week of the '08-09 season, which tends to be a bad combination. On the other hand, few guards distribute better or have a more active nose for the ball, and if he shows those traits again this year he should be among the more coveted point guards next summer. There's also the chance the Bobcats can waive him before July 1 and he'll be a free agent this summer.
11. Chris Duhon, Bulls -- One of the few guys on this list who isn't taking Geritol, Duhon's had his ups ands downs in Chicago. However, he will be entering his prime as a 26-year-old free agent next summer and should be a main target for teams eyeing backcourt help.
12. Michael Finley, Spurs -- Mark Cuban has already made his plea for Finley to return, and at 35 next summer the jump-shooting wingman probably will have a year or two of decent basketball left in him. He can also opt out his deal this summer, so this may be a moot point by '08.
By the way, if you're noticing a lot of Spurs on this list, it's because they only have three players under contract after next season -- Parker, Ginobili and (once he extends) Duncan. In other words, the dynasty could potentially add somebody like Brand or Marion midstream. Fans of the 29 other teams just spit up in their mouths reading that.
13. Brent Barry, Spurs -- Barry will be 36 next summer, but thanks to his great shooting ability and feel for the game he may be more productive in his late 30s than most. Somebody will be desperate enough for shooting to give him a new deal; if he's lucky there will be multiple years on it.
14. Kurt Thomas, Suns -- Still a desirable commodity because of his ability to defend the post, Thomas' other numbers have been steadily slipping and he'll be 36 when the '08-09 season tips off, so his best-case scenario is probably a two-year deal.
15. Bostjan Nachbar, Nets -- Bokie had a nice year off the bench in New Jersey, and if he repeats it he should be in line for a substantial raise as one of the few good shooters under 35 on the market.
Other notables: Carlos Arroyo, Magic; Robert Horry, Spurs; Gordan Giricek, Jazz; Michael Doleac, Heat; Francisco Elson, Spurs; Keyon Dooling, Magic; Quinton Ross, Clippers; Eduardo Najera, Nuggets; Fred Jones, Blazers; Juan Dixon, Raptors; Maurice Evans, Lakers; Primoz Brezec, Bobcats; Anthony Johnson, Hawks; Tyronn Lue, Hawks; Devean George, Mavericks
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...llinger_john&page=FreeAgents08&CMP=ILC-INHEAD
Summer of 2008 could shape up to be something special
It's the summer of 2007, which means it's time to start thinking about free agents. Oh, not this year's free agents -- I took a look at them in March, and our Chris Sheridan will have much more on that gang early next week.
No, it's time to look ahead a year.
2008 is the backdrop for the 2007 free-agent season, because some teams will be using the potential free-agent crop a year from now to guide decisions on how they manage their cap space this summer. And with Washington's Gilbert Arenas announcing recently that he plans to opt out of his contract next summer, the '08 free-agent season is unofficially underway already.
Plus, next year's class is one that -- stop me if you heard this before -- could be the best ever, provided nobody signs an extension this summer and everybody who can opt out of their contract does so.
Of course, this field inevitably will be whittled down severely by the time July of 2008 rolls around. This is particularly true in the case of players on their rookie contracts who are up for extensions this offseason.
Thus, don't expect Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Luol Deng, Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, Josh Childress, Nenad Krstic, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin, Delonte West or Devin Harris to be changing teams next summer -- all of those players figure to ink deals with their current teams between now and the end of October to keep them in place for a half-decade or so.
But even without those players on the market, next summer's crop is still potentially awesome. The players essentially break into four different groups -- let's take a look at each.
Group I: The "Big 10" ETO candidates
These are the players with an "early termination option" in their contract, meaning they can opt to forgo the final year(s) of their deals and instead become unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2008. In most years there are two or three big stars who have this option -- in 2008 there are 10, as the provisions of recent collective bargaining agreements kick in big-time. Here's the star-studded lineup:
1. Tim Duncan, Spurs -- Keep dreaming. Duncan can opt out after the upcoming season, but the Spurs are going to sign him to an extension this summer that keeps him in San Antonio until at least 2011. Besides, who are we kidding here? Duncan already had the opportunity to leave once and decided to stay put instead.
He's an icon in San Antonio and prefers the laid-back pace there to a bigger city. Plus he loves playing for Gregg Popovich. He's not going anywhere.
2. Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves -- Garnett's option will certainly be invoked if the Wolves don't deal him in the next 12 months, but it seems the more likely scenario is that he'll be dealt to a new team and then inked to an extension upon arrival.
Obviously, his new employers need to make sure he's up for this beforehand; already, his people have signaled to the Celtics that it's a no-go. But the sheer relief of leaving the Wolves' dire situation should make him more than happy to sign on the dotted line if dealt to one of his preapproved destinations.
3. Elton Brand, Clippers -- The Clippers would be wise to get Brand locked up to an extension. But "Clippers" and "wise" have rarely been used in the same sentence, so stay tuned. Plus, Clippers owner Donald Sterling could revert to his cheapskate ways at the snap of a finger if he decides that it's better to win 30 games with a low payroll than 40 games with a midsized one.
With Brand, Corey Maggette, Sam Cassell and Shaun Livingston all potentially coming off the books in '08, he could go back to being the league's reigning slumlord in a nanosecond.
4. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards -- Unlike the top three guys, it doesn't make sense for Arenas to extend his deal because he's not making the maximum, and thus he can get better bucks as an unrestricted free agent. That's why he went ahead and told everyone he'll be opting out of his deal in the offseason.
Presuming the top three guys all sign extensions, Arenas will be the league's most coveted free agent next summer, but at the moment all signs point to him returning to Washington.
5. Shawn Marion, Suns -- Mentioned in trade rumors nearly as often as Garnett, The Matrix is another player who would be in line for an extension this offseason and could opt out next summer. His deal is a little trickier, however, because he'll make $17.8 million in 2008-09, and there's a good chance he might have to accept less if he became a free agent.
Thus, much like Antawn Jamison and Mike Bibby this year, he might decide to take the bird in hand and play out the final year of his deal.
6. Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers -- A similar, albeit more dramatic, situation to Marion's -- both in terms of trade rumors and salary.
Jermaine is pushing $20 million per annum, and his offensive performance and durability have been in decline the past couple seasons (though not his defense, which was spectacular this season). As a result, he's likely to play his deal out through 2008-09 unless he totally blows up this year.
7. Allen Iverson, Nuggets -- Iverson isn't the best player on this list, but in terms of gate and merchandise he's pure gold. That's why he's more likely than the others to opt out -- surely somebody would gamble on his ability to draw in hordes of customers.
The interesting part comes from Denver's end -- is it willing to fork out for an extension (and likely incur more luxury tax bills) in order to keep him in the Rockies a couple more years?
8. Baron Davis, Warriors -- Davis represents a difficult calculation all around. On the one hand he's as good as any point guard in the game when he's healthy and motivated. On the other hand those two events don't coincide often. When they do, as in the Warriors' playoff run, it's amazing to watch, but that doesn't mean somebody should throw a max deal his way.
All of which explains why Davis, like a few of the guys above, may decide to stand pat and play out the last year of his deal.
9. Corey Maggette, Clippers -- The second-biggest name in the "certain free agent" crowd, Maggette has bristled under Mike Dunleavy's yoke in L.A., and he doesn't make enough for an extension to make sense anyway.
The fact that he can easily be lured to another destination should make him a major target next summer -- if he hasn't already been traded by then.
10. Ron Artest, Kings -- Talk about a roll of the dice. I have no idea what other teams would bid for Artest; I imagine several would stay away even if the price was one peso. That said, there's no denying his talent, and one has to think there's a team out there with enough spine and desperation to give it a shot.
The Kings don't seem to be giving any potential suitors the impression that they will stand in their way. It makes sense for Artest to opt out too, as his contract is a pittance relative to other players of his caliber.
Other notables: In addition to the 10 stars above, five other players have ETOs in their contracts -- Raef LaFrentz of the Blazers, Juwan Howard of the Timberwolves, Kenny Thomas of the Kings, and Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis of the Knicks -- but they aren't likely to be factors in free agency since they'd be fools to give up the final years of their excessive contracts.
Meanwhile, here are five to watch with player options: Stromile Swift of the Grizzlies, Justin Reed of the Rockets, Rasho Nesterovic of the Raptors, Keith Bogans of the Magic, and most notably Trevor Ariza also of the Magic. Ariza's current salary is way below market and he's likely to earn a much bigger payday in the summer of 2008, especially if he can take over as a starter for the possibly departing Grant Hill.
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Group II: The restricted free agents
I mentioned several first-round draft picks who are likely to sign extensions by opening day. However, a few second-rounders and European imports will be restricted free agents next summer, and unlike the first-rounders from the Class of 2004, their teams can't realistically sign them to an extension ahead of time. Their restricted status still makes it likely they'll stay put, but at least they'll be in play:
1. Monta Ellis, Warriors -- The league's Most Improved Player obviously makes for a tempting target, but one has to think the Warriors will pay what's necessary to keep him -- especially given Davis' fragility and the stinging memory of losing their last MIP winner, Gilbert Arenas, in a similar situation.
2. Jose Calderon, Raptors -- Calderon supposedly likes Toronto, but he's paid backup money and has a backup's role even though he's better than a lot of the league's starters. That should be enough to get the vultures circling, especially since the Raptors have already made a long-term commitment to T.J. Ford.
3. Craig Smith, Timberwolves -- The heir apparent at power forward once Garnett relocates (you were expecting Juwan Howard?), Smith should benefit nicely from Kevin McHale's penchant for grossly overpaying to retain his role players.
4. Walter Herrmann, Bobcats -- One of the league's better forwards down the stretch, Herrmann could earn himself a big payday if he follows it up with another strong season. He might be available, too, since nobody's really sure if the Bobcats know what they're doing.
5. Ronny Turiaf, Lakers -- I'm a little surprised the athletic French forward hasn't gotten more burn, but the Lakers had to carve out extra minutes to justify all the money they wasted on Vlad the Snow Flake. L.A.'s pain may be somebody else's gain, as Turiaf has played well in limited minutes.
6. Daniel Gibson, Cavaliers -- Teams can bid up to the midlevel exception for the unlikely hero of the Eastern Conference finals, and the Cavs will have the right to match any offer. In other words, he's probably not going anywhere.
7. Ryan Gomes, Celtics -- With so many young Celtics players to pay, will Gomes slip through the cracks in Boston? If so, several teams would love to have him as a role-playing combo forward.
8. Fabricio Oberto, Spurs -- Oberto can opt out of his deal this summer, but if he doesn't he'll be a restricted free agent next year. Role players on championship teams tend to draw crazy money, so he should benefit from the glow of the 2006 title run.
Other notables: Tarence Kinsey, Grizzlies; Alexander Johnson, Grizzlies; Salim Stoudamire, Hawks; Lynn Greer, Bucks; Mickael Gelabale, Sonics; Hassan Adams, Nets; Will Blalock, Pistons; Louis Williams, 76ers.
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Group III: More restricted free agents
In addition to those players above, a few first-rounders from the class of '04 are likely to become restricted free agents, as their teams are unlikely to agree to extensions due to uncertainty about injuries, playing time or general comportment:
1. Tony Allen, Celtics -- Allen was having a breakout year until he tore up his knee going up for a meaningless after-the-whistle dunk. Now he'll have to prove he can return to being the slashing, athletic force he was a year ago before he can sign a big-money deal.
2. J.R. Smith, Nuggets -- On talent alone, Smith is a no-brainer for an extension. But his playoff meltdown against San Antonio and subsequent offseason trouble has to give Denver's management pause. The Nuggies might wait another year to make sure Smith can keep his head on straight before they commit to him long-term.
3. Robert Swift, Sonics -- The Sonics still don't know exactly what they have in Swift after he missed all of last season with a knee injury. With new management in town there's no pressure to make a heavy investment in the previous regime's draft pick, so Swift will have to prove himself worthy to the new guys.
4. Carlos Delfino, Raptors -- The theory is that Delfino will play more consistently with a defined role, but the Raptors probably want to see how the theory works in practice before they put a lot of money behind it.
5. Randolph Morris, Knicks -- A contractual oddity after playing for both Kentucky and the Knicks in the same season last year, Morris' deal expires after this season. Depending on his development there could be quite a market for the young center.
Other notables: Shaun Livingston, Clippers; Sebastian Telfair, Celtics; Dorell Wright, Heat; Kris Humphries, Raptors; Beno Udrih, Spurs; David Harrison, Pacers; Sasha Vujacic, Lakers; Kirk Snyder, Rockets
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Group IV: The real, honest to goodness unrestricted free agents
Finally, we get to the guys who will be on the market with no strings attached -- at least, provided they don't sign extensions between now and then. Note that Vince Carter could also theoretically be on this list if he decides not to opt out of his contract this summer, but the odds on that are highly unlikely.
Basically, there are two players on this list worth making some effort to sign to a big-money deal. After that, you have a bunch of guys who will be in their late 30s by 2008-09, and a few decent role players.
1. Antawn Jamison, Wizards -- The Wizards forward declined opting out this year, but will go the unrestricted route next summer if Washington doesn't extend him. And given his age and production, it doesn't make much sense for the Wizards to give him an extension -- they can re-sign him for substantially less if they let him become a free agent. Of course, the risk of losing both Jamison and Arenas in the same summer may be more than Ernie Grunfeld is willing to contemplate.
2. Ricky Davis, Timberwolves -- Minnesota's mercurial forward might be one of the stronger unrestricted free agents next summer if none of the ETO gang sees the light of day. Davis' head isn't always in the game, but he can flat-out score and could provide a potent sixth man for the right team. Plus, he's still in his 20s -- unlike nearly everyone else on this part of the list -- and he's been extremely consistent year-to-year.
3. Antonio McDyess, Pistons -- He'll be 34 by the time the '08-09 seasons starts and he had a bad wheel, but McDyess has been an extremely effective sixth man since coming to Detroit and should get a nice payday if he can repeat the effort in 2007-08.
4. Alonzo Mourning, Heat -- He's still a quality player, especially when he can play short bursts off the bench, but the expectation is that he'll retire either this year or next. If he still wants to play, though, expect him to get plenty of attention due to his outstanding shot-blocking ability.
5. DeSagana Diop, Mavericks -- Bigs who can defend always come at a premium, regardless of their offensive talents. Diop isn't going to average double figures, but his ability to stop opposing post players and help out against penetration make him a desirable commodity.
6. Bruce Bowen, Spurs -- Bowen is one of the game's elite defenders and takes great care of himself, but he'll also be 37 next summer. One wonders how long a player dependent on quickness can keep chugging along, but several teams will be happy to give him a short-term deal to find out.
7. Kwame Brown, Lakers -- Believe it or not, Brown still will only by 26 next summer, which means some other sucker out there is likely to overpay based on his alleged potential. He's big and can defend a little, so he's not devoid of value, but you can feel the moronic offers coming already.
8. Jason Williams, Heat -- Still an extremely effective player when fully healthy, even during Miami's meltdown last season, but his body broke down a year ago and he was limited in several stretches. If he gets through this season in one piece he'll zoom up the list, but at 32 next summer he can't expect a long-term deal.
9. Sam Cassell, Clippers: He can still play when he's healthy -- really, he hasn't lost much at all. But those moments became increasingly rare as last season wore on and one wonders if his body will hold up. Given his age (38 by next summer) he's probably looking at one-year deals from here on out.
10. Brevin Knight, Bobcats -- He's 5-10 and he'll be 33 the first week of the '08-09 season, which tends to be a bad combination. On the other hand, few guards distribute better or have a more active nose for the ball, and if he shows those traits again this year he should be among the more coveted point guards next summer. There's also the chance the Bobcats can waive him before July 1 and he'll be a free agent this summer.
11. Chris Duhon, Bulls -- One of the few guys on this list who isn't taking Geritol, Duhon's had his ups ands downs in Chicago. However, he will be entering his prime as a 26-year-old free agent next summer and should be a main target for teams eyeing backcourt help.
12. Michael Finley, Spurs -- Mark Cuban has already made his plea for Finley to return, and at 35 next summer the jump-shooting wingman probably will have a year or two of decent basketball left in him. He can also opt out his deal this summer, so this may be a moot point by '08.
By the way, if you're noticing a lot of Spurs on this list, it's because they only have three players under contract after next season -- Parker, Ginobili and (once he extends) Duncan. In other words, the dynasty could potentially add somebody like Brand or Marion midstream. Fans of the 29 other teams just spit up in their mouths reading that.
13. Brent Barry, Spurs -- Barry will be 36 next summer, but thanks to his great shooting ability and feel for the game he may be more productive in his late 30s than most. Somebody will be desperate enough for shooting to give him a new deal; if he's lucky there will be multiple years on it.
14. Kurt Thomas, Suns -- Still a desirable commodity because of his ability to defend the post, Thomas' other numbers have been steadily slipping and he'll be 36 when the '08-09 season tips off, so his best-case scenario is probably a two-year deal.
15. Bostjan Nachbar, Nets -- Bokie had a nice year off the bench in New Jersey, and if he repeats it he should be in line for a substantial raise as one of the few good shooters under 35 on the market.
Other notables: Carlos Arroyo, Magic; Robert Horry, Spurs; Gordan Giricek, Jazz; Michael Doleac, Heat; Francisco Elson, Spurs; Keyon Dooling, Magic; Quinton Ross, Clippers; Eduardo Najera, Nuggets; Fred Jones, Blazers; Juan Dixon, Raptors; Maurice Evans, Lakers; Primoz Brezec, Bobcats; Anthony Johnson, Hawks; Tyronn Lue, Hawks; Devean George, Mavericks
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
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