With the trade deadline now come and gone, fans who were disappointed by their team's trades (or lack thereof) have to wait until after the season ends for their team before it can start adding new pieces to the puzzle via trade. Realistically, the date is likely to be closer to July 1, since most offseason trades happen near the draft (June 26) or in the weeks after.
July 1 is also the date that free agency season starts, and a date that NBA general managers have circled on their calendars.
Since our November update on the free agent class of 2008, two things have changed.
One, we have a better feel now for which teams will be under the cap come July.
Two, we have a better feel for the value of some of the free agents who will be on the market.
No matter their value, many free agents will once again have trouble cashing in because of the salary cap and luxury tax situations of most teams.
Based on current projections, only two teams -- the Memphis Grizzlies and the Philadelphia 76ers -- will have enough money under the cap to spend on the top-tier free agents.
The Memphis Grizzlies got under the cap by trading away Pau Gasol for expiring contracts. But Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace has sent signals that the team might not spend its estimated $12 million in cap room this summer. Instead, some expect the Grizzlies to wait until the summer of 2009, when they could have more cap space.
The Philadelphia 76ers could have around $20 million in cap space. But to get there, they would have to waive restricted free agents Andre Iguodala and Louis Williams, which seems very unlikely. Therefore, it appears the Sixers will have around $10 million in cap space.
A few other teams -- the Los Angeles Clippers, the Washington Wizards, the Charlotte Bobcats, the Seattle SuperSonics and the Miami Heat -- could create some cap room, but to do so they would have to let their major free agents walk away.
The Clippers will have around $24 million to play with if Elton Brand, Corey Maggette and the rest of their free agents walk. If Brand doesn't opt out and the others leave, they will be about $12 million under the cap. Most likely, they won't have serious cap space.
The Wizards will have roughly $15 million if Gilbert Arenas opts out.
The Bobcats will have roughly $10-11 million if restricted free agent Emeka Okafor signs with another team.
The Sonics will have room if they decide to let Robert Swift walk. If Swift is off the books, they could have between $8.5 million and $9.5 million to spend, depending on where they pick in the draft.
The Heat will have around $14-15 million in cap space if free agent Shawn Marion decides to opt out of his contract.
But none of these five situations is considered likely at this point.
To make matters worse, a number of teams are treating the luxury tax threshold as a hard cap, or a reason to put on the brakes. With 12 teams already in the luxury-tax range -- and potentially more after the 2008 draft picks are accounted for -- free agents will see an unwelcome sight this summer: a continuation of the trend for teams to forego using the midlevel exception.
You may have your eyes set on a star this offseason. But for most fans, unless your team clears a ton of cap room or orchestrates the rare sign-and-trade, the biggest names below will be off-limits. Still, there are some players that might fit your team's budget and cap/tax situation, so read on.
Group I: The "Big 8" ETO candidates
These are the players with an "early termination option" in their contracts, meaning they can opt to forego the final year(s) of their deals and become unrestricted free agents this summer. In most years, two or three big stars have this option. In 2008, there are eight, as the provisions of recent collective bargaining agreements kick in.
Here's the star-studded lineup:
1. Elton Brand, Clippers
The Clippers and Brand are in limbo. The team looks lottery-bound again, and to stay competitive, Donald Sterling is going to have to pay Brand, Maggette and Shaun Livingston. (Add Sam Cassell to this list if he does not receive a buyout.)
Brand is the most important piece, but he may also be the most coveted free agent on the market. He turns 29 in March, but as long as he recovers from his ruptured Achilles tendon (he's begun practicing again), he seems to be the player who has the most to offer in free agency.
Brand might want the long-term security of a new contract, or he might want to wait a year to prove he's fully healthy and increase his value. Another big consideration: to keep from losing money in the next year, Brand will need a team to pay him a starting salary of $16.5 million. No team is likely to have that kind of cap room. So would Brand leave the Clippers to play for less money?
Philadelphia, in need of a power forward, has been regarded as a potential destination, and Miami (which signed Brand to an offer sheet in 2003) would be expected to have major interest as well if Marion were to opt out.
2. Gilbert Arenas, Wizards
Arenas has turned himself into a max player the past few years, and despite recent knee troubles, will likely opt out of his contract to cash in on his newfound celebrity status. While he continues to maintain publicly that his first choice is to re-sign with Washington, it's not inconceivable that, given his eccentricity, he could change his mind. The biggest issue for Arenas is the same that plagues all the other free agents: Who else really has the money to pay him?
3. Shawn Marion, Heat
Marion wanted a huge extension in Phoenix, and is likely to want the same in Miami. Given his age, this may be his last chance to garner a big, long-term deal. So, theoretically, he could opt out of his contract, which runs through the 2008-09 season.
But Marion has a number of factors working against him. He turns 30 in May, is scheduled to make a whopping $17.8 million next season and would likely have to take a major pay cut if he were to opt out. The most likely scenario is that Marion decides not to opt out and tries to work out a reasonable extension with the Heat this summer.
4. Baron Davis, Warriors
Davis showed up at camp in the best shape of his career and seemed ready to opt out after the season. But recently, he seems to have changed his tune.
His value is hard to gauge. He's as good as any point guard in the game when he's healthy and motivated -- and for what it's worth, he hasn't missed a game this season. But he turns 29 in April and of late has rarely been healthy for a full season. Will he stay motivated to stay in shape once he gets a big deal?
And again … who can afford him? It seems more likely that he stays in Golden State.
5. Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers
O'Neal has his reasons to opt out. The Pacers don't look like contenders, and at 29, this could be his last chance to get a big, long-term deal.
However, given O'Neal's huge salary next year ($20 million), his lack of productivity and durability so far this season, and the low interest he got at the trade deadline, it's hard to see him opting out at this point.
6. Allen Iverson, Nuggets
Iverson turns 33 in June and is scheduled to make $21 million next season. But he remains one of the game's most potent scorers, averaging 26.6 points this season.
But again, as with the other free agents, where could he go? I don't think the Sixers are bringing him back.
7. Corey Maggette, Clippers
Maggette has been in trade rumors for years and appears to be eager to bolt the Clippers. He's making $7 million next season and should be due a raise.
Teams will be out in force to get him, but most will have only the midlevel exception to offer -- which means he'd be taking a pay cut. We'll see how badly Maggette wants out.
8. Ron Artest, Kings
Everyone thought the Kings would trade Artest away by the deadline, and many around the league are a little shocked he is still wearing a Kings uniform.
Artest is very likely to opt out looking for a bigger deal. But who gives it to him? Right now it seems like the Kings are his only real option. As usual, he's sent very mixed signals.
He might be a guy who's better off taking a midlevel deal in the right situation, even over the short term. He needs to do something to rehab his image. Maybe this is it.
Other notables: Stephon Marbury, Raef LaFrentz, Kenny Thomas
Group II: The restricted free agents
Only six first-round draft picks from the 2004 draft were signed to extensions last fall. That means there will be some serious young talent available this summer. Their restricted status still makes it likely they'll stay with their current teams, but at least they'll be in play:
1. Emeka Okafor, Bobcats
Okafor turned down $13 million per season to hit free agency this summer. He's not the best player on this list, but he's the best young center on the market. Still, there's no guarantee he'll get more money from the Bobcats or another team.
The Grizzlies, Sonics and Sixers will be interested, but they know the Bobcats are very likely to match. I don't see him going anywhere.
2. Josh Smith, Hawks
On talent and potential, Smith should be at the top of the list. He's a freakish athlete who can score, rebound and block shots. What holds him back is a questionable attitude. Nevertheless, it appears that the Hawks have to sign him back.
Given his talent and the Hawks' ownership woes, Smith is one of the few restricted free agents a team with cap space may try to pluck away -- the same way the Hawks did with Joe Johnson a few years ago.
3. Andre Iguodala, Sixers
Iguodala's decision to turn down a $57 million deal was very questionable, especially since, at the time, the Sixers appeared to be the only team with significant cap room … I'm not sure where he thought his next paycheck would come from. He's having a great season and could end up being coveted by a team like the Grizzlies, but the chances he leaves Philly look very slim.
4. Jose Calderon, Raptors Calderon has been playing at an All-Star level this season. With T.J. Ford in and out of the lineup with injuries, Calderon has become a leader on the Raptors and the best pure point guard on the free-agent market.
The Raptors say they'll match any offer for Calderon, and I believe them. Who would let him walk away?
5. Luol Deng, Bulls
Everyone loves Deng's talent, including the Bulls. At least they used to. Injuries and a poor season have hurt his value around the league.
Still, it's hard to see the Bulls not matching any offer Deng gets next summer. He declined a reported $57.5 million extension in October, so if he makes more than that next summer, he comes out ahead. If he doesn't sign an offer sheet with another team, it will be interesting to see if the budget-conscious Bulls will take advantage of the market conditions and offer him less.
6. Andris Biedrins, Warriors
Biedrins didn't get the lucrative contract offer that several others did. He was looking for something in the five-year, $50 million range and got an offer that was reportedly substantially lower.
Biedrins falls somewhat into the Anderson Varejao category: energetic big man whose stats don't tell the whole story in terms of on-court contributions. Considering that he continues to improve and he's turning only 22 in April, it's hard to believe the Warriors wouldn't match an offer.
But he's young, big and improving. He might be better off taking a qualifying offer this summer and heading into unrestricted free agency in 2009 if the Warriors don't pony up.
7. Monta Ellis, Warriors
He's young and he can score. But his restricted status is going to hurt him. He probably won't be offered more than the midlevel exception by another team, and he probably feels he's worth considerably more than that.
He's another player who, like Biedrins, might be better off taking the one-year tender.
8. Josh Childress, Hawks
Childress doesn't get nearly the respect or hype of many of his teammates in Atlanta, but he's been a extremely effective sixth man who nonetheless seems expendable given all of Atlanta's wing talent.
He probably can't get more than a midlevel deal on this market, but he'd be a bargain at that price.
9. Ben Gordon, Bulls
Of all the players who turned down lucrative contract extensions last year, Gordon's decision is the most mind-boggling. He turned down a five-year, $50 million deal that seemed above market value.
The chances of him recouping that money next year seem remote … and now that the Bulls have added Larry Hughes to the mix, it's no longer clear where Gordon fits into the picture.
There isn't a huge market for undersized 2 guards with streaky jump shots, even those who shoot 3-pointers at 41.5 percent. Even though he appears to be the most likely top restricted free agent not to have his offer matched, Gordon going to struggle to get a big offer. He should consider taking the Bulls' one-year tender offer this summer and entering the free agent market in 2009. He has also been mentioned as a sign-and-trade candidate.
10. Nenad Krstic, Nets
Before his knee injury last season, Krstic looked like he'd be locked up by the Nets. But his slow recovery has hurt his value.
The team to watch is Philadelphia. New GM Ed Stefanski was a Krstic fan while he was back in New Jersey.
Other notables: Shaun Livingston, Clippers; Louis Williams, Sixers; Craig Smith, Timberwolves; Ronny Turiaf, Lakers; Sasha Vujacic, Lakers; Daniel Gibson, Cavaliers; Ryan Gomes, Timberwolves; Robert Swift, Sonics; Carlos Delfino, Raptors; Carl Landry, Rockets; Juan Carlos Navarro, Grizzlies; Kelenna Azubuike, Warriors; Sebastian Telfair, Timberwolves; Delonte West, Cavs; David Harrison, Pacers; Walter Herrmann, Pistons; J.R. Smith, Nuggets; Tony Allen, Celtics; Dorell Wright, Heat; Salim Stoudamire, Hawks; Mickael Gelabale, Sonics; Randolph Morris, Knicks; Kirk Snyder, Wolves.
Group III: The real, honest-to-goodness unrestricted free agents
Finally, we get to the guys who will be on the market with no strings attached.
Unfortunately, there is only one player on this list worth making an effort to sign to a big deal. Several of the others will struggle to come close to matching their current contracts.
1. Antawn Jamison, Wizards: He turns 32 in June, but Jamison is still putting up big scoring and rebounding numbers for the Wizards. He even made a surprise appearance at the All-Star Game this season. Washington will likely try to lock him up, and should have the best shot. With teams capped out, who's going to spend all of their money on a 32-year-old?
2. Kurt Thomas, Spurs: He's 35 years old, but still tough enough to help just about any title contender. The Spurs grabbed him from the Sonics at the trade deadline. Look for them to try to lock him up on a three-year deal this summer.
3. Mickael Pietrus, Warriors: No one is sure why the Warriors don't play Pietrus more. He's one of the more athletic defenders in the league and a solid 3-point shooter. A good team will pick him up and try to use him in a Bruce Bowen-type role.
4. DeSagana Diop, Nets: He's huge and he rebounds and blocks shots. That almost guarantees someone will use its midlevel exception on him. Still, though he's just 25, five points and five boards are the most you can expect to get from him. If the Nets don't re-sign him, then Dallas would probably like to have him back.
5. Ricky Davis, Heat: The talented but troubled forward hasn't been helping his cause in his second tour with Miami. Pat Riley thought, after dumping him the first time, that Davis finally had the maturity to play for him. After the first half of the season, Riley is clearly reassessing the situation. Davis looks like a midlevel or below type of player in next year's free-agent class. I doubt he returns to the Heat.
6. Kwame Brown, Grizzlies: The former No. 1 pick has run out of excuses. Yes, he's huge, athletic and only 25 years old. But after seven years in the league, he has yet to prove that he's anything more than a backup. Someone will pay him something, but no one is expecting much.
7. Sam Cassell, Clippers: He's old (39 next season), but he's still kicking. His willingness to play on a one-year deal for a contender might make him a coveted free agent next summer.
8. Beno Udrih, Kings: The Kings have been impressed enough with his play that they felt no remorse in letting Mike Bibby go. He's probably a $3-4 million per year player.
9. Chris Duhon, Bulls: Duhon isn't a superstar, but he's a solid, steady point guard who plays defense. He won't get a lot of money, but someone will want him.
10. Gerald Green, Rockets: He's long and extremely athletic, and he can shoot. At just 22, he's one of the few unrestricted free agents with upside. Now that he's back home in Houston, I'm sure he'd like to stay.
Someone will offer him $3-4 million a year in the hopes that he figures out how to play defense and learns a few plays.
Other notables: Brent Barry, free agent; Bostjan Nachbar, Nets; Carlos Arroyo, Magic; Eduardo Najera, Nuggets; Matt Barnes, Warriors; Alonzo Mourning, Heat; Patrick O'Bryant, Warriors; Jason Williams, Heat; Juwan Howard, Mavs; Jarvis Hayes, Pistons; Robert Horry, Spurs; Michael Finley, Spurs; Damon Stoudamire, Spurs; Jamaal Magloire; Kareem Rush, Pacers; Gordan Giricek, Sixers; Michael Doleac, Timberwolves; Francisco Elson, Sonics; Keyon Dooling, Magic; Quinton Ross, Clippers; Antoine Wright, Mavericks; Fred Jones, Knicks; Juan Dixon, Pistons; Maurice Evans, Magic; Primoz Brezec, Raptors; Anthony Johnson, Kings; Tyronn Lue, Kings; Theo Ratliff, Wolves.
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