2010-2011 Salary Cap set at $58 million

[scott4life]

yeah but no max free agent wants to come here :chuckles:

We should take that extra cap space and build more night clubs.

 

[Mdog1]

This raises the max contract over 600,000 dollars than the previous cap estimation would have.

 

[Mdog1]

To teams trying to sign two max guys this truly only gives them an additional 800,000 to work with, really doesn't make a big deal.

 

[Lee]

For those trying to do math, a max deal starts at 30% of the salary cap for most of these guys in the league 7 years...or now $17.4. If you resign with your current team. They have 2 max players currently leaving 23.2. They have just under 6 mill tied up in chalmers and Beasly, leaving $17.4. They have to have a roster of 12, meaning need 8 more players. They have to pay atleast league min for a rookie or about $500k. With 7 slots plus the most you can pay that means another 3.5 mill or about 14 mill. Lebron would have to leave 3.5 million the first year alone on the table to go to Miami. A max deal for Lebron on NY or Chi is $101 million over 5 years. Here He could sign a 5 year $105.5 mill deal or 6 year $131.7 million. Not siging here he leaves about 4.5 mill on the table plus a final year guruantee of 26.2...much higher than assumed after the new cba. To go to Miami he would have to take a 5 year 81.2 mill deal leaving atleast 20mill on the table unless wade and bosh split the difference and leave 6.5 mill on the table each.

Basically, he isnt going to Miami and he is most likely signing in Cleveland. It is almost always about the money. I dont care when they say its not about the money, I can count on my hands when that proves to be true. Bosh is the exception. Z was the exception. I expect Lebron to be the rule.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

This raises the max contract over 600,000 dollars than the previous cap estimation would have.

The Man Called X has been quiet, no? I miss X.

 

[Joel]

Lee, I agree with your conclusions, but I think that your math is just a little off. I know that plenty of people out there have their calculations for maximum salaries; here are mine.

Maximum salaries are calculated at 48.04% of basketball related income (BRI) - whereas the salary cap itself was calculated at 51% of BRI. (SOURCE) That means that the maximum salary is calculated based on the formula:

$58.044M (the salary cap) x 48.04 / 51 = $54.6752M (the salary cap for the purposes of maximum salary calculations)

...and then, the maximum salaries are calculated based on 25%, 30%, and 35% multiples of that number, based on years of experience.

In other words: a player with...

...0-6 years of experience = starting maximum salary of $13.6688M (calculated as .25 x $54.6752M)
...7-9 years of experience = starting maximum salary of $16.4026M (calculated as .30 x $54.6752M)
...10+ years of experience = starting maximum salary of $19.1363M (calculated as .35 x $54.6752M)

Therefore, for a player with 7-9 years of experience (which applies to LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Amare, JJ, and Boozer,) a maximum contract would be:
...if they re-sign with their original team: 6Y, $124.25M
...if they sign with a new team: 5Y, $95.14M

Now. To make things complicated, we have this little exception to the maximum salary rule:

A free agent's maximum salary in the first year of a new contract is never less than 105% of his salary in the last year of his previous contract. For example, a ten-year veteran free agent who most recently earned $20 million has a maximum salary of $21 million, even if that is above the league-wide maximum. A free agent does not need to remain with the same team in order to receive 105% of his previous salary, although the team that signs him is subject to the same salary cap restrictions as with any other free agent.

SOURCE

The 105% rule is completely idiotic, but if I understand it correctly, it would apply to LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, all of whom made $15.77912M last year. Now, 105% of that number is $16.569M. So LeBron, Wade, and Bosh can all have their maximum salary start at that number, which gets us to the following maximum contracts:

...if they re-sign with their original team (Wade, hopefully LeBron): 6Y, $125.5M
...if they sign with a new team (Bosh): 5Y, $96.10M

It's not much of a difference, about a million bucks over the life of a contract, but it's a little difference.

Amare Stoudemire would also fall under the 105% rule, *if* he received a maximum contract with New York. (When all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised if he signed for a little less than the max.) His contract last year was for $16.38M, and 105% of that number would be $17.197M. With 8% raises off the base salary, Amare's max contract would be 5Y, $99.744M.

Joe Johnson, on the other hand, would not fall under the 105% rule. He would receive 30% of the maximum salary, calculated at 48% of BRI - in other words, he would receive 6Y, $124.25M from Atlanta.

Again, PLEASE feel free to check my math. I *think* I'm right, but this stuff gets complicated as hell. I'm planning on tweeting with Larry Coon tonight after he logs in on twitter, and I'll correct this post if anything is wrong.

As to Miami's situation. If I'm right about these numbers, and both Bosh and Wade sign for maximum ($16.569M) contracts - if LeBron wants to sign, then their current cap number (including cap holds) will be $42.869M (including $7.360801M in committed cap holds, the max salaries for Bosh and Wade, and five minimum salary cap holds.) This would leave them $15.18M to offer LeBron in starting salary. This is not quite a maximum salary, but it's fairly easy to imagine LeBron, Wade, and Bosh each taking a slightly lower amount - on the order of $16.105M each - if they decide they want to play together in Miami.

Again, check my math. Hope this is helpful. I'm at work all night, so I should have plenty of time to check salary cap numbers.

 

[InBoobieWeTrust]

I think top level executives have probably been aware of this for at least a few days, if not weeks, by now. I don't think it's much of a game-changer as the information was likely already presented to all the free agents in the various presentations and meetings.

The most significant part about this is that the players union now has insane ammunition to lob at the owners in the next collective bargaining agreement...they're been crying financial ruin, yet the salary cap has INCREASED this year..

I think we're heading towards a lock-out next year almost assuredly...

 

[Joel]

I think top level executives have probably been aware of this for at least a few days, if not weeks, by now. I don't think it's much of a game-changer as the information was likely already presented to all the free agents in the various presentations and meetings.

The most significant part about this is that the players union now has insane ammunition to lob at the owners in the next collective bargaining agreement...they're been crying financial ruin, yet the salary cap has INCREASED this year..

I think we're heading towards a lock-out next year almost assuredly...

Everyone read what IBWT just posted very, very carefully. He is absolutely correct.

Today's salary cap numbers are an absolute earthquake when it comes to next summer's collective bargaining agreement negotiations. The higher-than-anticipated salary cap, combined with the obviuos free-spending ways of owners this summer, are going to offer the players union some unbelievable leverage as they had into negotiations. Add that to the fact that the big market-small market divide has never been more pronouned - big markets can attract big stars; small markets have trouble keeping them - and it's going to be an insanely complex labor negotiation.

I believe that a lockout, and probably a very long lockout, was guaranteed today. I'll frankly put money on the idea that we lose the entire 2011-2012 season; I just hope that we don't lose more than that.

And it would almost figure, wouldn't it... my new worst fear has become that we're able to re-sign LeBron - but we then lose 1-2 of his prime years to a lockout. I'll always believed that the 1994 Cleveland Indians were destined to win the World Series; I'm praying that we don't see a repeat of that scenario.

 

[Douglar]

Not good for Cavs as now the teams like the Bulls, Knicks, Heat, etc., have 2 more million to play with...

But it also raises max salary at the same time, so it doesn't help Miami as much as it might sound at first--