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2012 MLB Draft Thread

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Just one correction we contended in CC's Cy Young year.
 
huber14 said:
yeah that worked real well with Grady, Hafner, Wood and now Ubalololdo.
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How many of those were 18 year old pitchers with + arms?

Small market teams have to groom elite talent because they can't acquire elite talent any other way.

If you don't aim to draft elite talent, well.....probably makes it increasingly harder to develop it eh? That's all I'm saying.
 
I'm sorry, but Giolito is nowhere near the super prospect you're making him out to be.

Like him a lot, very high ceiling. But this is not a once an every few years type of arm.

High school guys with + arms are available every year.
 
b00bie said:
I'm sorry, but Giolito is nowhere near the super prospect you're making him out to be.

Like him a lot, very high ceiling. But this is not a once an every few years type of arm.

High school guys with + arms are available every year.
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Your opinion seems to go against the opinion of every scout out there.

I have yet to see someone who didn't think he was a legitimate consideration at #1 overall had he not been shut down due to an elbow sprain.

Had he gone #1, he would have been the first right-handed HS pitcher to ever go #1, so yeah....I think that means he's a rather "super prospect".

We'll see who has the more impactful MLB career.
 
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ImWithDan said:
Your opinion seems to go against the opinion of every scout out there.

I have yet to see someone who didn't think he was a legitimate consideration at #1 overall had he not been shut down due to an elbow sprain.

Had he gone #1, he would have been the first right-handed HS pitcher to ever go #1, so yeah....I think that means he's a rather "super prospect".

We'll see who has the more impactful MLB career.
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You're talking about a mock draft from before any of these guy's seasons.

There have been plenty of high school pitchers who were in contention for the top spot and never got there. Giolito is an excellent prospect, but you're overrating him severely it seems.

Even if he pans out, you're still overrating his prospect status...and I'm certainly not saying I think Naquin will be a better pro. So let's not take it there.
 
Looks like the Tribe is having a pretty good draft.
 
Here is the synopsis I wrote for another site:

What I know about the Indians picks:

1 - Tyler Naquin - CF - TAMU - Great hitting mechanics and speed. Five tool player as they expect the power to come. One of the best outfield arms in the draft could probably play all three OF spots but his bat projects for center. The only way this pick works is if he can play CF, otherwise he's a reserve at best. Below slot value pick IMO who will save money for the prep guys they signed.


2 - Mitchell Brown - RHP - HS (MN) - High schooler with a four pitch mix known as the best prospect in the state. Hammer for a curveball and his velo is respectable enough (tops 94) and projects out as he grows too. Probably could have went higher, lack of competition didn't help him. At least three pitches (FB, curve, change) project as plus with the first two already being there.

Century Baseball Mitch Brown - YouTube


3 - Kieran Lovegrove - RHP - HS (Calif.) - One of my favorite kids in the draft. Wiry frame but his fastball is already sits 90-92 peaking at 94-95. Slider is an underrated pitch, I think it projects to be a wipeout while others grade it out above average. Workable change, not even close to there yet. Few things in his delivery that need to change, as is the case with any high schooler. As an aside, I got to know Kieran pretty well when I worked for Team USA Baseball in 2010. He's a quiet and respectful kid who will definitely react well to coaching and has a good baseball mentality. He also started his own charity with a couple friends called the Going to Bat Foundation, which collects old baseball equipment for needy communities in the US and abroad. Arizona State commit who would be an above slot sign if he plays. Don't sign hm and I bet he's a first round pick in three years.

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | MLB.com: Multimedia
Kieran Lovegrove, RHP Mission Viejo HS - WWBA - YouTube


4 - D'Vone McClure - OF - HS (Ariz.) - Holy bat speed. I don't know much about him aside from what I've seen on film. He is a big kid (6'3, 190-200+) with the frame to add more. Great lower half, will certainly project to hit for some power (could be plus plus down the line) but I wonder how much contact he's going to be making which will be the determining factor in his future. Committed to Arkansas and will probably need to go above slot to get him to break.

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | MLB.com: Multimedia
Dvone McClure - YouTube


5 - Dylan Baker - RHP - Western Nev. CC - Haven't seen much beyond the fastball. Will need to develop his secondary pitches and probably winds up in the bullpen down the road.

Dylan Baker Baseball 2009 - YouTube


6 - Joseph Wendle - 2B - West Chester - I know absolutely nothing about him. Odds are he'll be signing for next to nothing, basically a money saver for the prep guys taken ahead of him.


7 - Josh Schubert - OF - HS (Calif) - Big motherfucker with light-tower power. Swing mechanics are all fucked up but nothing that isn't fixable with good coaching. I question whether his body projects as a 3B, but I've never seen him really move around outside of this video so who knows.

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | Draft Tracker: Joshua McAdams, High School Outfielder - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia


8 - Caleb Hamrick - RHP - HS (Tex.) - Two-way player probably projects to the mound given his low 90s fastball. Not sure what other offerings he has and I'm sure he's relatively raw. Committed to Dallas Baptist University and I'd imagine is more likely to sign than not.


9 - Jacob Lee - RHP - Ark. State - Senior sign who will pitch right away. Not a ton of ceiling here, probably similar to Josh Tomlin as he's a guy who will get hit but finds a way to get it done (or not get it done this year).


10 - Josh Martin - RHP - Samford - Big body w/ a fastball, curve and change. The fastball is low 90s at best but could elevate with better mechanics given his size. Change and curve are average at best. Went 12-1 this year.


11 - Logan Vick - OF - Baylor - This kid is one to watch IMO. Switch hitter who has got some pop and set a school record for walks. The same kind of dirtbag player Jason Kipnis is and can definitely play CF.

Logan Vick, Baylor Junior OF (vs. UCLA) - YouTube
Baylor Baseball: Logan Vick Great Catch vs. Cal - YouTube


15 - Nelson Rodriguez - C - HS (NYC) - Another kid I got to know extremely well on the Team USA circuit in 2010. God given power stroke. Struggles with the finer points of catching and is quiet and reserved from a spot generally needing to be loud and a leader. I watched him hit a home run in Minute Maid (Houston) that hit halfway up the light tower in left-center field over the railroad tracks. One of the most majestic homers I've ever seen and the 100 or so scouts in attendance let out a "ohhhh" like I'd never heard from a cynical bunch like them. Same high school as Manny Ramirez, came over from the Dominican and some question his age. Kid looks 30, but the power is the only thing about his game that is good right now. He'll need to put in a ton of work to ever have a chance.

Baseball Video Highlights & Clips | MLB.com: Multimedia
 
A little insight to the new rules...

New Draft Rules Create Confusion, Run On College Seniors

Posted Jun. 5, 2012 7:22 pm by J.J. Cooper
Filed under: Draft Day

We knew the new draft rules would create some unexpected twists, and the second day of the draft did not disappoint.

The draft rules set up in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement were designed to hold down signing bonuses and get teams to line up their draft boards based more on talent and less on a player's signability.

On Monday night, that ideal held true. Players were largely picked based on where teams saw them on their draft boards. And while Stanford righthander Mark Appel's slide added drama, the draft didn't see a Jacob Turner, Josh Bell or Nick Castellanos-like slide, where a premium talent fell a long way to a team willing to meet his significant asking price. The draft board largely lined up based on talent.

That wasn't true on Tuesday as the draft wore on, however. It became clear that for many teams, the second half of the top 10 rounds was less about best player available and much more about the best player willing to accept a small bonus.

The new draft rules attach a value to each pick in the first 10 rounds. The total of all of those picks is each team's bonus pool for this year's draft. Go over budget and the team pays a tax, and if it goes over by more than 5 percent it starts losing draft picks. Any player selected after the 10th round who signs for more than $100,000 counts against the pool. And if a team doesn't sign a pick in the top 10 rounds, it loses the budget space allotted for that pick.

So teams had to know how to stretch their dollars, but just as importantly, how to make absolutely sure they would sign all of their picks in the first 10 rounds. So while talent was important, finding cheaper players after the first few rounds became even more important. And no draft commodity is cheaper than the college senior.

As an example, the Blue Jays were as aggressive as anyone in the first three rounds of the draft, selecting premium high school talents in Matt Smoral (supplemental first round) and Anthony Alford (third round). Both could have asking prices well beyond their draft slots. But after taking Alford in the third round, Toronto selected seven straight college seniors.

College seniors have little bargaining leverage. If the Blue Jays work out well-below market deals for some or all of those college seniors, they could use the extra money to sign Smoral or Alford. The Blue Jays' total bonus pool is $8,830,800. The seven Blue Jays' picks from the fourth through 10th round carry an allotment of $1.244 million. If the Blue Jays hypothetically signed those seven players for $200,000 total, that would be $1 million that could be used to sign Smoral or Alford.

Teams could also use savings to take swings at difficult signs in the 11th round and beyond. While any player after the 10th round who signs for more than $100,000 counts against the team's bonus pool, there are no rules or penalties for doing that. And because an unsigned player after the 10th round doesn't diminish a team's draft pool, there's less risk to taking a top talent in the 11th round than there is in the fifth. An unsigned fifth round player would cost a team more than $200,000 of its bonus pool. An unsigned 11th-round pick costs nothing.

So the Astros took Hunter Virant, ranked No. 53 on the BA 500, with the first pick of the 11th round (339 overall). If they don't sign Virant and he heads to UCLA, the Astros have lost an 11th-round pick. If they find they have saved enough money on their first 10 picks to sign him, Virant would give them a supplemental first-round talent.

“I think after people got through (round) 10, I think they played it through 10 to see how much they could save in their pool,” White Sox scouting director Doug Laumann said. “Once they realized after 10 what they were going to have, then they went ahead and redistributed in 11, 12, 13 because they knew how much cushion they were going to have.”

And in a perverse incentive, because the first $100,000 for a player taken after the 10th round does not count against a team's budget, a team can stretch its bonus pool by taking better talent in later round. Say a team wants two players, one who will sign for $1,000 and the other who will sign for $250,000. If it takes the $250,000 player in the sixth round and the $1,000 player in the 11th, $250,000 counts against the budget. But reverse those two picks and only $150,000 counts against the pool. That explains why nine players in the BA 500 were picked in the 10th round, while 18 players in the BA 500 were taken in the 11th round.

Some teams played things more conventionally and stuck to their board.

“I haven’t regrouped to see what other teams have done, but I think everyone tried to balance things out and find ways to be creative to the draft,” an American League scouting director said. “I think for us, personally, I think we were happy with how it turned out.”

“I think every team is trying to feel things out and see how things work for them,” the AL scouting director said. “I think each team is definitely trying to figure out the best way to strategize for the draft.

Coming into the draft, signability was the buzzword and it certainly remained a key topic for the second day of the draft.

“It definitely was,” he said. “Especially with having to have your pick sign within those first 10 rounds or you lose your allotment, I think signability definitely came into play."
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2012 MLB draft: Evaluating the draft classes of AL teams - ESPN
Cleveland Indians
Summary: This started somewhat poorly with the overdraft of Tyler Naquin (1), a plus runner who should hit (albeit without power) but does have to prove he can play centerfield, since Texas A&M was busy with the 80 run/20 hit Krey Bratsen out there. But Cleveland rolled the dice on more ceiling with their next three picks, high school arms Mitch Brown (2) and personal favorite Kieran Lovegrove (3) as well as raw high school athlete D'Vone McClure (3). Dylan Baker (4) came out of nowhere this year when he started hitting 97 and showing an above-average breaking ball while starting for Western Nevada, although most scouts project him as a power reliever. Josh McAdams (6) has a smooth, balanced swing with good extension, but needs to find a permanent position, most likely in right field.
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