2016 College Football Lines/Gambling Thread

[AZ_]

Updated

 

[billmac91]

Any of these jumping out at you as good plays?

USC -16.5 vs Utah State
Iowa -15 vs Iowa State
UNC -9.5 at Illinois
Louisville -14.5 at Syracuse

I've missed the last 2 years picking the Iowa/Iowa State game. Traditionally it's pretty tight. Iowa State sucked week 1, but they typically get up to play Iowa. I'm staying away from that one.

I like the Louisville pick because of Petrino and Jackson (just an athletic freak at QB), but betting against a coach like Dino Babers is risky.

USC just isn't a very good team...you'd think their talent would carry them at -16.5 against Utah State, but when you're getting reports of Ju Ju walking out on practice and the team already showing signs of revolt, it's a bit concerning.

I identified the picks I like above, but I think I'm targeting games I think will be close and then taking the points. I like PSU +6, mostly because it's still in-state and they'll represent well at Heinz field, it should be low scoring, and I think it stays within a possession most of the game.

The other one I still really like is SMU +32. Chad Morris (SMU head coach former Clemson OC) continues to build that offense up, and they'll be able to put some points up against Baylor. Baylor is going to score a lot too, but I think it's more of a 21 point win rather than 32 points.

Of AZ's above picks, I'm in agreement on Wyoming +24.5. Wyoming runs the ball extremely well and can take the air out of the ball. Nebraska will have to play lights out to cover that spread.

 

[BimboColesHair]

No one likes Duke -5 at home vs Wake Forest?

 

[billmac91]

No one likes Duke -5 at home vs Wake Forest?

I'd certainly lean Duke in that match-up. Cutty has a lot of new offensive starters and assistant coaches (his OC from last year Scottie Montgomery is now Head Coach at East Carolina). Wake won 7-3 on the road at Tulane last week and was more tested than Duke.

Again, I'd favor Duke, just not sure I'd wager much on it.

 

[AZ_]

No one likes Duke -5 at home vs Wake Forest?

I could get behind it, I just don't know how much I trust Duke's backup QB. Even in the face of how bad Wake's QB1 is.

 

[Surge]

Since this is the only gambling thread, anyone going in on the Carolina/Denver game tonight?

Thinking Carolina comes out to prove something, especially Cam. And I don't think Denvers defense is as legit as last seasons.

Thoughts?

 

[billmac91]

Since this is the only gambling thread, anyone going in on the Carolina/Denver game tonight?

Thinking Carolina comes out to prove something, especially Cam. And I don't think Denvers defense is as legit as last seasons.

Thoughts?

I like Carolina tonight too, but historically I'm much better picking college than NFL.

I think Siemian getting his first taste of live, regular season ball against Carolina's front 4 is going to be a tall order. Kiki Short and Star Lotululei are going to be monsters up the middle on a revamped Denver O-line too.

I also think for Denver, Malik Jackson is going to be a bigger loss than most realize although Derek Wolfe is still probably their most underrated player.

My guess is it's fairly low scoring, but Cam makes enough plays to pull out the win and cover. I guess the caveat being, Denver lost nothing out of their league best secondary, and they should come out ready to lock up the Carolina receiving crew. I still like Newton > Siemian

 

[AZ_]

Since this is the only gambling thread, anyone going in on the Carolina/Denver game tonight?

Thinking Carolina comes out to prove something, especially Cam. And I don't think Denvers defense is as legit as last seasons.

Thoughts?

Thought so too, all of the sites out there keep pushing this "defending SB champs" stat against the spread.

Not sure any defending champs have ever started a second year 7th rounder the next season either. So I'll roll w/ Carolina and let Trevor Siemian prove me wrong.

 

[TheLand1287]

Thought so too, all of the sites out there keep pushing this "defending SB champs" stat against the spread.

Not sure any defending champs have ever started a second year 7th rounder the next season either. So I'll roll w/ Carolina and let Trevor Siemian prove me wrong.

I'm leaning the same way, as billmac mentioned Malik Jackson and other pieces off that Broncos D missing that may make an impact, but what about the Panthers starting 2 rookie CB's and being on the road? Just playing devil's advocate I guess.

I dont know, I want to go Panthers -3 also but betting NFL scares the shit out of me.

 

[billmac91]

I'm leaning the same way, as billmac mentioned Malik Jackson and other pieces off that Broncos D missing that may make an impact, but what about the Panthers starting 2 rookie CB's and being on the road? Just playing devil's advocate I guess.

I dont know, I want to go Panthers -3 also but betting NFL scares the shit out of me.

From a Panthers POV, their secondary is aided by their front 4 and an ability to get to the QB. It's David Gettleman's NYG philosophy that he has transplanted down to Charlotte.

The reason they let Norman walk was because they felt Norman was overvalued based on the production of their D-line. Gettleman will be spending his dollars accross the D-line rather than secondary.

That's what they'd say anyways...they feel comfortable with their scheme and ability to play great defense with inexperience in the back.

However, if Denver is able to protect and Siemian is able to buy time, you could definitely see some breakdowns. It sounds like a cop-out, but that's truly what it is. Last year Carolina's defense was so good, Kurt Coleman (and I love Kurt Coleman, former Buckeye) was a borderline pro-bowler with a near league lead in interceptions. Kurt Coleman is solid, but he's not pro-bowl level good. Carolina's front 4 made him pro-bowl good.

More interesting to me in this game will be Carolina's run game. They averaged 1 YPC on first down in the super bowl. A lot of that was Malik Jackson getting push. Malik Jackson's replacemnt is now on the IR for the year forcing what was a 3rd string guy 1 year ago into the starting role. Will be interesting to see if J-Stew gets any momentum rolling. If Carolina runs the ball well, they cover easily.....

 

[TheLand1287]

From a Panthers POV, their secondary is aided by their front 4 and an ability to get to the QB. It's David Gettleman's NYG philosophy that he has transplanted down to Charlotte.

The reason they let Norman walk was because they felt Norman was overvalued based on the production of their D-line. Gettleman will be spending his dollars accross the D-line rather than secondary.

That's what they'd say anyways...they feel comfortable with their scheme and ability to play great defense with inexperience in the back.

However, if Denver is able to protect and Siemian is able to buy time, you could efinitely see some breakdowns. It sounds like a cop-out, but that's truly what it is. Last year Carolina's defense was so good, Kurt Coleman (and I love Kurt Coleman, former Buckeye) was a borderline pro-bowler with a near league lead in interceptions. Kurt Coleman is solid, but he's not pro-bowl level good. Carolina's front 4 made him pro-bowl good.

More interesting to me in this game will be Carolina's run game. They averaged 1 YPC on first down in the super bowl. A lot of that was Malik Jackson getting push. Malik Jackson's replacemnt is now on the IR for the year forcing what was a 3rd string guy 1 year ago into the starting role. Will be interesting to see if J-Stew gets any momentum rolling. If Carolina runs the ball well, they cover easily.....

Good points made. So far though, I'm like the U 21 for the first half over the game itself.

Also, another college line that jumped out at me was Washington State +11 at Boise State. I know Washington State is coming off a loss to EWU but they still have a really good QB and I see this being a back and forth game that could go either way at the end. I could be far off on that hot take though.

 

[AZ_]

Good points made. So far though, I'm like the U 21 for the first half over the game itself.

Also, another college line that jumped out at me was Washington State +11 at Boise State. I know Washington State is coming off a loss to EWU but they still have a really good QB and I see this being a back and forth game that could go either way at the end. I could be far off on that hot take though.

Don't disagree with this at all.

I don't generally bet on Mike Leach, given that his team's sword may swing in no discernible direction on a week-to-week basis.

The kid from Eastern Washington (Cupp) flat out torched them last week, but Boise doesn't have a player that caliber offensively.

 

[billmac91]

Good points made. So far though, I'm like the U 21 for the first half over the game itself.

Also, another college line that jumped out at me was Washington State +11 at Boise State. I know Washington State is coming off a loss to EWU but they still have a really good QB and I see this being a back and forth game that could go either way at the end. I could be far off on that hot take though.

These are just my opinions, so take or leave them....but Boise State will likely run the ball right down Washington State's throat. Jeremy McNichols is one of the top RB's in the country, and Brett Rypien is really solid in play-action game off him.

Boise traditionally plays solid defense as well. I'm not sure I'd want any part of that......

 

[Surge]

I'm taking the under 41.5 for tonight's CAR/DEN game.

Also looking hard at the Wyoming +24.5 as others have said.

 

[TheLand1287]

Uh oh.. @AZ_ our 21 under is looking shaky.

Andy fucking Janovich though. Smfh.