2018 NBA Playoff Series Odds and Betting

shoes22 · Apr 29, 2018

How about that 1st round huh?! Here are how all 4 second round series look:

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<li data-val="1">8. Raptors in 4: 4.77%</li>
<li data-val="2">6. Raptors in 5: 11.43%</li>
<li data-val="3">5. Raptors in 6: 12.62%</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Raptors in 7: 16.17%</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Cavs in 7: 14.93%</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Cavs in 6: 18.89%</li>
<li data-val="7">4. Cavs in 5: 13.45%</li>
<li data-val="8">7. Cavs in 4: 7.75%</li>
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[/parsehtml]Game 1 Odds:
Raptors win 52%/Cavs Win 48%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 87.48%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 62.60%
Odds series goes 7 games: 31.10%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.81

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 44.99% likely
Cavs win series: 55.01% likely

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (3)
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<li data-val="1">8. Celtics in 4: 1.50%</li>
<li data-val="2">6. Celtics in 5: 5.94%</li>
<li data-val="3">7. Celtics in 6: 5.70%</li>
<li data-val="4">5. Celtics in 7: 12.76%</li>
<li data-val="5">4. 76ers in 7: 13.28%</li>
<li data-val="6">1. 76ers in 6: 26.87%</li>
<li data-val="7">2. 76ers in 5: 19.31%</li>
<li data-val="8">3. 76ers in 4: 14.63%</li>
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<button id="e2-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 1 Odds:
Celtics win 49%/76ers Win 51%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 83.87%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 58.61%
Odds series goes 7 games: 26.04%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.68

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 25.90% likely
76ers win series: 74.10% likely

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
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<li data-val="1">4. Rockets in 4: 11.39%</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Rockets in 5: 26.58%</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Rockets in 6: 16.42%</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Rockets in 7: 21.82%</li>
<li data-val="5">6. Jazz in 7: 7.27%</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Jazz in 6: 11.02%</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Jazz in 5: 3.61%</li>
<li data-val="8">8. Jazz in 4: 1.89%</li>
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<button id="w2-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 1 Odds:
Rockets win 75%/Jazz Win 25%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 86.72%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 56.53%
Odds series goes 7 games: 29.09%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.72

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 76.21% likely
Jazz win series: 23.79% likely

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
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<li data-val="1">4. Warriors in 4: 12.76% (+6.77%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Warriors in 5: 27.29% (+8.97%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 16.43% (+3.46%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Warriors in 7: 20.55% (-2.05%)</li>
<li data-val="5">6. Pelicans in 7: 9.23% (-1.4%)</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Pelicans in 6: 10.61% (-7.46%)</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Pelicans in 5: 3.12% (-4.09%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Pelicans in 4: 0.0%</s> (-4.19%)</li>
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<button id="w2-2-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 69%/Pelicans Win 31%

Odds New Orleans forces Game 5: 87.24% (-2.57%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 56.83% (-7.44%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 29.79% (-3.44%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.74 (-0.13)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 77.04% likely (+17.15%)
Pelicans win series: 22.96% likely (-17.15%)

shoes22 · May 2, 2018

Let's check in to see where we're at after 5 games have been played in this second round! Interestingly, the overall series projection has not changed in any of these series, even though the game predictor is 3/5 in 2nd round games so far.

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="ue2-1-1">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Raptors in 4: 0.0%</s> (-4.77%)</li>
<li data-val="2">7. Raptors in 5: 3.65% (-7.78%)</li>
<li data-val="3">6. Raptors in 6: 7.42% (-5.2%)</li>
<li data-val="4">5. Raptors in 7: 12.69% (-3.48%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Cavs in 7: 13.21% (-1.72%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Cavs in 6: 22.37% (+3.48%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Cavs in 5: 21.67% (+8.22%)</li>
<li data-val="8">3. Cavs in 4: 18.98% (+11.23%)</li>
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<button id="e2-1-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 2 Odds:
Raptors win 49%/Cavs Win 51%

Odds Toronto forces Game 5: 81.02% (-6.46%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 55.70% (-6.9%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 25.91% (-5.19%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.63 (-0.18)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 23.77% likely (-21.22%)
Cavs win series: 76.23% likely (+21.22%)

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (3)
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<li data-val="1">7. Celtics in 4: 4.16% (+2.66%)</li>
<li data-val="2">4. Celtics in 5: 13.28% (+7.34%)</li>
<li data-val="3">6. Celtics in 6: 10.19% (+4.49%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Celtics in 7: 19.04% (+6.28%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. 76ers in 7: 16.88% (+3.6%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. 76ers in 6: 25.01% (-1.86%)</li>
<li data-val="7">5. 76ers in 5: 11.45% (-7.86%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. 76ers in 4: 0.0%</s> (-14.63%)</li>
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<button id="e2-2-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 2 Odds:
Celtics win 53%/76ers Win 47%

Odds Philadelphia forces Game 5: 95.84% (+11.97%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 71.11% (+12.5%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 35.92% (+9.88%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.03 (+0.35)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 46.66% likely (+20.76%)
76ers win series: 53.34% likely (-20.76%)

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
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<li data-val="1">4. Rockets in 4: 16.08% (+4.69%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Rockets in 5: 32.55% (+5.97%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Rockets in 6: 16.65% (+0.23%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Rockets in 7: 19.57% (-2.25%)</li>
<li data-val="5">6. Jazz in 7: 6.18% (-1.09%)</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Jazz in 6: 7.29% (-3.73%)</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Jazz in 5: 1.68% (-1.93%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s> (-1.89%)</li>
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<button id="w2-1-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 2 Odds:
Rockets win 76%/Jazz Win 24%

Odds Utah forces Game 5: 83.92% (-2.8%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 49.68% (-6.85%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 25.75% (-3.34%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.59 (-0.13)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 84.85% likely (+8.64%)
Jazz win series: 15.15% likely (-8.64%)

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
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<li data-val="1">2. Warriors in 4: 20.25% (+7.49%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Warriors in 5: 34.65% (+7.36%)</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Warriors in 6: 16.21% (-0.22%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Warriors in 7: 16.73% (-3.82%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Pelicans in 7: 7.17% (-2.06%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Pelicans in 6: 4.99% (-5.62%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Pelicans in 5: 0.0%</s> (-3.12%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Pelicans in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
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[/parsehtml]
Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 45%/Pelicans Win 55%

Odds New Orleans forces Game 5: 79.75% (-7.49%)
Odds New Orleans forces Game 6: 45.1% (-11.73%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 23.90% (-5.89%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.49 (-0.25)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 87.84% likely (+10.8%)
Pelicans win series: 12.16% likely (-10.8%)

shoes22 · May 4, 2018

Model was 3/4 for all Conference Semifinal Game 2's! The only game it got wrong was the Utah over Houston upset. Here are the Game 3 odds and updated series projections:

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<li data-val="1"><s>8. Raptors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>7. Raptors in 5: 0.0%</s> (-3.65%)</li>
<li data-val="3">6. Raptors in 6: 1.38% (-6.04%)</li>
<li data-val="4">5. Raptors in 7: 4.48% (-8.21%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Cavs in 7: 6.19% (-7.02%)</li>
<li data-val="6">3. Cavs in 6: 16.47% (-5.9%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Cavs in 5: 25.24% (+3.57%)</li>
<li data-val="8">1. Cavs in 4: 46.24% (+27.26%)</li>
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<button id="e2-1-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Raptors win 32%/Cavs Win 68%

Odds Toronto forces Game 5: 53.76% (-27.26%)
Odds Toronto forces Game 6: 28.52% (-27.18%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 10.67% (-15.24%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.93 (-0.7)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 5.86% likely (-17.91%)
Cavs win series: 94.14% likely (+17.91%)

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (3)
[parsehtml]
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<li data-val="1">6. Celtics in 4: 9.00% (+4.84%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Celtics in 5: 23.1% (+9.82%)</li>
<li data-val="3">5. Celtics in 6: 13.76% (+3.57%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Celtics in 7: 21.29% (+2.25%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. 76ers in 7: 17.42% (+0.54%)</li>
<li data-val="6">4. 76ers in 6: 15.43% (-9.58%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. 76ers in 5: 0.0%</s> (-11.45%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. 76ers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
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<button id="e2-2-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 3 Odds:
Celtics win 30%/76ers Win 70%

Odds Philadelphia forces Game 5: 91% (-4.84%)
Odds Philadelphia forces Game 6: 67.9% (-3.21%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 38.71% (+2.79%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.98 (-0.05)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 67.15% likely (+20.49%)
76ers win series: 32.85% likely (-20.49%)

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
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<li data-val="1"><s>7. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s> (-16.08%)</li>
<li data-val="2">4. Rockets in 5: 12.7% (-19.85%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Rockets in 6: 16.81% (+0.16%)</li>
<li data-val="4">1. Rockets in 7: 28.16% (+8.59%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. Jazz in 7: 10.95% (+4.77%)</li>
<li data-val="6">2. Jazz in 6: 21.96% (+14.67%)</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Jazz in 5: 9.42% (+7.74%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
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<button id="w2-1-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 3 Odds:
Rockets win 42%/Jazz Win 58%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 77.88% (+28.2%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 39.11% (+13.36%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.17 (+0.58)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 57.67% likely (-27.18%)
Jazz win series: 42.33% likely (+27.18%)

HenryMuto · May 5, 2018

Not sure where you get your odds but the top 3 in Vegas were Raptors in 7, Raptors in 5 and Raptors in 6.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers
7 Games Raptors Win 14/5
5 Games Raptors Win 3/1
6 Games Raptors Win 9/2
6 Games Cavaliers Win 11/2
7 Games Cavaliers Win 7/1
4 Games Raptors Win 10/1
5 Games Cavaliers Win 15/1
4 Games Cavaliers Win 30/1

shoes22 · May 6, 2018

HenryMuto said:
Not sure where you get your odds but the top 3 in Vegas were Raptors in 7, Raptors in 5 and Raptors in 6.

Raptors vs. Cavaliers
7 Games Raptors Win 14/5
5 Games Raptors Win 3/1
6 Games Raptors Win 9/2
6 Games Cavaliers Win 11/2
7 Games Cavaliers Win 7/1
4 Games Raptors Win 10/1
5 Games Cavaliers Win 15/1
4 Games Cavaliers Win 30/1

I am aware the Vegas lines had Raptors as overwhelming favorites at the start of the series, but in this thread I've been using my own custom model, as I have for the past 3 years. In that timespan it has a career 82% success rate in game-over-game predictions.

http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?threads/nba-betting-thread.46589/
http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?threads/2017-nba-playoff-odds-betting-thread.47994/

With that said, every year I add another new wrinkle to these, so perhaps starting next year I will start including the Vegas odds alongside my own calculated predictions. We can probably do some fun thigns with that. Thanks for the suggestion!

Anyway, here are all four conference semifinal series projections for Game 4 and beyond. My model was 2/4 in the Game 3s, missing the Rockets blowout win over the Jazz in Game 3 and the Celtics nailbiter win over the 76ers.

Toronto Raptors (1) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<li data-val="1"><s>8. Raptors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>7. Raptors in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>6. Raptors in 6: 0.0%</s> (-1.38%)</li>
<li data-val="4">5. Raptors in 7: 1.81% (-2.67%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Cavs in 7: 2.49% (-3.7%)</li>
<li data-val="6">3. Cavs in 6: 9.14% (-7.33%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Cavs in 5: 18.56% (-6.68%)</li>
<li data-val="8">1. Cavs in 4: 68% (+21.76%)</li>
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<button id="e2-1-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Toronto forces Game 5: 32% (-21.76%)
Odds Toronto forces Game 6: 13.44% (-15.08%)
Odds Toronto forces Game 7: 4.3% (-6.37%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.50 (-0.43)

Overall Odds:
Raptors win series: 1.81% likely (-4.05%)
Cavs win series: 98.19% likely (+4.05%)

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (3)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue2-2-3">
<li data-val="1">2. Celtics in 4: 36% (+27%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Celtics in 5: 37.12% (+14.02%)</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Celtics in 6: 9.68% (-4.08%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Celtics in 7: 9.98% (-11.31%)</li>
<li data-val="5">5. 76ers in 7: 7.23% (-10.19%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>6. 76ers in 6: 0.0%</s> (-15.43%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. 76ers in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. 76ers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
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<button id="e2-2-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Philadelphia forces Game 5: 64% (-27%)
Odds Philadelphia forces Game 6: 26.88% (-41.02%)
Odds Philadelphia forces Game 7: 17.20% (-21.51%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.08 (-0.90)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 92.77% likely (+25.62%)
76ers win series: 7.23% likely (-25.62%)

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw2-1-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2">1. Rockets in 5: 36.19% (+23.49%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Rockets in 6: 24.26% (+7.45%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Rockets in 7: 25.48% (-2.68%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Jazz in 7: 7.61% (-3.34%)</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Jazz in 6: 6.46% (-15.5%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>6. Jazz in 5: 0.0%</s> (-9.42%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
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<button id="w2-1-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 4 Odds:
Rockets win 47%/Jazz Win 53%

Odds Utah forces Game 6: 63.81% (-14.07%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 33.09% (-6.02%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.97 (-0.2)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 85.93% likely (+28.26%)
Jazz win series: 14.07% likely (-28.26%)

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw2-2-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s> (-20.25%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Warriors in 5: 30.6% (-4.05%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 23.31% (+7.1%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Warriors in 7: 24.76% (+8.03%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Pelicans in 7: 11.65% (+4.48%)</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Pelicans in 6: 9.68% (+4.69%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Pelicans in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Pelicans in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w2-2-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 4 Odds:
Warriors win 45%/Pelicans Win 55%

Odds New Orleans forces Game 6: 69.4% (+24.3%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 36.41% (+12.51%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.06 (+0.57)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 78.67% likely (-9.17%)
Pelicans win series: 21.33% likely (+9.17%)

shoes22 · May 7, 2018

Model was technically 0-2 in game predictions last night...but no change in the overall series projections.

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Houston Rockets (1) vs. Utah Jazz (5)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw2-1-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>7. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2">1. Rockets in 5: 79% (+42.81%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Rockets in 6: 10.71% (-13.55%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Rockets in 7: 8.13% (-17.35%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Jazz in 7: 2.16% (-5.45%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>5. Jazz in 6: 0.0%</s> (-6.46%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>6. Jazz in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Jazz in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w2-1-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Utah forces Game 6: 21% (-42.81%)
Odds Utah forces Game 7: 10.29% (-22.8%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.31 (-0.66)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 97.84% likely (+11.91%)
Jazz win series: 2.16% likely (-11.91%)

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (6)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw2-2-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2">1. Warriors in 5: 73% (+42.4%)</li>
<li data-val="3">2. Warriors in 6: 12.96% (-10.35%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Warriors in 7: 10.25% (-14.51%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Pelicans in 7: 3.79% (-7.86%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>5. Pelicans in 6: 0.0%</s> (-9.68%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Pelicans in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Pelicans in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w2-2-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds New Orleans forces Game 6: 27% (-42.4%)
Odds New Orleans forces Game 7: 14.04% (-22.37%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.41 (-0.65)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 96.21% likely (+17.54%)
Pelicans win series: 3.79% likely (-17.54%)

shoes22 · May 8, 2018

We're back on track! Model was 2/2 in the Eastern Conference games last night. Here's the latest series projections for BOS-PHI!

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[/parsehtml]
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (3)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="ue2-2-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>5. Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s> (-36%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Celtics in 5: 56% (+18.88%)</li>
<li data-val="3">3. Celtics in 6: 14.08% (+4.4%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Celtics in 7: 16.76% (+6.78%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. 76ers in 7: 13.16% (+5.93%)</li>
<li data-val="6"><s>6. 76ers in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. 76ers in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. 76ers in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e2-2-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Odds Philadelphia forces Game 6: 44% (+17.12%)
Odds Philadelphia forces Game 7: 29.92% (+12.72%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.74 (+0.66)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 86.84% likely (-5.93%)
76ers win series: 13.16% likely (+5.93%)

David. · May 8, 2018

You should run through and build a resume of how tight you've been.

Like "after game 1 the best prediction of the series was correct and went 7 games"

FiveThous · May 10, 2018

Anxiously awaiting the conference finals projections

natedagg · May 12, 2018

FiveThous said:
Anxiously awaiting the conference finals projections

@shoes22

shoes22 · May 13, 2018

Here they are! Sorry for the delay.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="ue3">
<li data-val="1">8. Celtics in 4: 1.99%</li>
<li data-val="2">7. Celtics in 5: 6.47%</li>
<li data-val="3">6. Celtics in 6: 7.02%</li>
<li data-val="4">5. Celtics in 7: 12.66%</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Cavs in 7: 14.28%</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Cavs in 6: 24.63%</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Cavs in 5: 19.19%</li>
<li data-val="8">4. Cavs in 4: 13.76%</li>
</ul>
<button id="e3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 1 Odds:
Celtics win 47%/Cavs Win 53%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 84.25%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 58.59%
Odds series goes 7 games: 26.94%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.70

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 28.14% likely
Cavs win series: 71.86% likely

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw3">
<li data-val="1">8. Rockets in 4: 2.20%</li>
<li data-val="2">7. Rockets in 5: 5.47%</li>
<li data-val="3">6. Rockets in 6: 8.24%</li>
<li data-val="4">5. Rockets in 7: 10.35%</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Warriors in 7: 16.20%</li>
<li data-val="6">2. Warriors in 6: 21.38%</li>
<li data-val="7">1. Warriors in 5: 21.85%</li>
<li data-val="8">4. Warriors in 4: 14.30%</li>
</ul>
<button id="w3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 1 Odds:
Rockets win 39%/Warriors Win 61%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 83.50%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 56.17%
Odds series goes 7 games: 26.55%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.66

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 26.26% likely
Warriors win series: 73.74% likely

FritzLn · May 13, 2018

shoes22 said:
Warriors in 5: 21.85%

lmao. fuck KD

shoes22 · May 15, 2018

Okay! 1 for 2 so far in the Conference Finals projections, but no significant changes yet for the series as a whole, or even in the game predictions in either series after Game 1. That will not be the case if the Cavs lose Game 2 however. The series outlook could change in a hurry if that happens.

Of course, the same thing does not apply to the Warriors-Rockets series. The Warriors can afford to lose Game 2 without making a dent in the overall projections.

Here's where we sit for the Game 2's!

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="ue3-1">
<li data-val="1">7. Celtics in 4: 5.66% (+3.67%)</li>
<li data-val="2">4. Celtics in 5: 13.66% (+7.19%)</li>
<li data-val="3">5. Celtics in 6: 12.20% (+5.18%)</li>
<li data-val="4">3. Celtics in 7: 17.18% (+4.52%)</li>
<li data-val="5">2. Cavs in 7: 17.88% (+3.6%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Cavs in 6: 22.07% (-2.56%)</li>
<li data-val="7">6. Cavs in 5: 11.33% (-7.86%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s> (-13.76%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="e3-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 2 Odds:
Celtics win 49%/Cavs Win 51%

Odds Cleveland forces Game 5: 94.33% (+10.08%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 69.34% (+10.75%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 35.06% (+8.12%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.99 (+0.29)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 48.71% likely (+20.57%)
Cavs win series: 51.29% likely (-20.57%)

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw3-1">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s> (-2.20%)</li>
<li data-val="2">7. Rockets in 5: 1.77% (-3.7%)</li>
<li data-val="3">6. Rockets in 6: 4.45% (-3.79%)</li>
<li data-val="4">5. Rockets in 7: 7.22% (-3.13%)</li>
<li data-val="5">4. Warriors in 7: 12.29% (-3.91%)</li>
<li data-val="6">3. Warriors in 6: 20.63% (-0.75%)</li>
<li data-val="7">1. Warriors in 5: 27.84% (+5.99%)</li>
<li data-val="8">2. Warriors in 4: 25.80% (+11.5%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="w3-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]Game 1 Odds:
Rockets win 37%/Warriors Win 63%

Odds Houston forces a Game 5: 74.20% (-9.3%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 44.58% (-11.59%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 19.51% (-7.04%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.38 (-0.28)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 13.44% likely (-12.82%)
Warriors win series: 86.56% likely (+12.82%)

FiveThous · May 19, 2018

Odds we get swept?

shoes22 · May 19, 2018

FiveThous said:
Odds we get swept?

Almost 13%! It is only slightly higher than the odds the Cavs win the next 4 games in a row.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="ue3-2">
<li data-val="1">5. Celtics in 4: 12.96% (+7.3%)</li>
<li data-val="2">1. Celtics in 5: 24.42% (+10.76%)</li>
<li data-val="3">4. Celtics in 6: 15.61% (+3.41%)</li>
<li data-val="4">2. Celtics in 7: 18.38% (+1.2%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Cavs in 7: 16.30% (-1.58%)</li>
<li data-val="6">6. Cavs in 6: 12.32% (-9.75%)</li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s> (-11.33%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e3-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 3 Odds:
Celtics win 36%/Cavs Win 64%

Odds Cleveland forces Game 5: 87.04% (-7.29%)
Odds Cleveland forces Game 6: 62.62% (-6.72%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 34.68% (-0.38%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.84 (-0.15)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 71.38% likely (+22.67%)
Cavs win series: 28.62% likely (-22.67%)

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw3-2">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2">6. Rockets in 5: 6.39% (+4.62%)</li>
<li data-val="3">5. Rockets in 6: 11.23% (+6.78%)</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Rockets in 7: 14.46% (+7.24%)</li>
<li data-val="5">3. Warriors in 7: 19.97% (+7.68%)</li>
<li data-val="6">1. Warriors in 6: 26.37% (+5.74%)</li>
<li data-val="7">2. Warriors in 5: 21.58% (-6.26%)</li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s> (-25.8%)</li>
</ul>
<button id="w3-2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button> 
[/parsehtml]
Game 3 Odds:
Rockets win 39%/Warriors Win 61%

Odds series goes at least 6 games: 72.03% (+27.45%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 34.43% (+14.92%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.06 (+0.68)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 32.08% likely (+18.64%)
Warriors win series: 67.92% likely (-18.64%)

2018 NBA Playoff Series Odds and Betting

shoes22

Hall-of-Famer

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Hall-of-Famer

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Hall-of-Famer

HenryMuto

Situational Stopper

shoes22

Hall-of-Famer

shoes22

Hall-of-Famer

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Hall-of-Famer

David.

Radical Centrist

FiveThous

All-Star

natedagg

Gold Star Member

shoes22

Hall-of-Famer

FritzLn

Sixth Man

shoes22

Hall-of-Famer

FiveThous

All-Star

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Hall-of-Famer

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