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2018 NBA Playoff Series Odds and Betting

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Here's how we look for the Game 4s! After a couple outlier games early in both series, things went as expected for Game 3 in both conferences.

In the East, interestingly Celtics in 7, Cavs in 7, and Cavs in 6 all have nearly equal probabilities right now. In the three years I've been doing this, not sure i've ever seen something like that.

In the West, it is embarrassing how high the Warriors are rated (when fully healthy) compared to any other team.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="ue3-3">
<li data-val="1"><s><span class="m1">6.</span> Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-12.96%)</span></li>
<li data-val="2"><i><span class="m3">4.</span> Celtics in 5: 16.32%</i> <span class="m2">(-8.1%)</span></li>
<li data-val="3"><span class="m1">5.</span> Celtics in 6: 16.12% <span class="p2">(+0.51%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4"><b><span class="p1">1.</span> Celtics in 7: 22.90%</b> <span class="p2">(+4.52%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5">3. Cavs in 7: 22.00% <span class="p2">(+5.7%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><span class="p2">2.</span> Cavs in 6: 22.66% <span class="p2">(+10.34%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
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[/parsehtml]
Game 4 Odds:
Celtics win 32%/Cavs Win 68%

Odds Cleveland forces Game 6: 83.68% (+21.06%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 44.91% (+10.23%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.29 (+0.45)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 55.34% likely (-16.04%)
Cavs win series: 44.66% likely (+16.04%)


Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
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<ul class="team" id="uw3-3">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Rockets in 5: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-6.39%)</span></li>
<li data-val="3">5. Rockets in 6: 2.98% <span class="m2">(-8.25%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4">4. Rockets in 7: 7.67% <span class="m2">(-6.79%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5">3. Warriors in 7: 12.51% <span class="m2">(-7.46%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><i><span class="m1">2.</span> Warriors in 6: 32.20%</i> <span class="p2">(+5.83%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><b><span class="p1">1.</span> Warriors in 5: 44.64%</b> <span class="p2">(+23.06%)</span></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w3-3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Game 4 Odds:
Rockets win 28%/Warriors Win 72%

Odds Houston forces Game 6: 55.36% (-16.67%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 20.18% (-14.25%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.76 (-0.3)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 10.65% likely (-21.43%)
Warriors win series: 89.35% likely (+21.43%)
 
Wow, those were some exciting Game 4s! Never been more happier about an upset than that Rockets win over the Warriors last night. Things look more interesting now that both series will go at least 6 games.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="ue3-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s><span class="m1">5.</span> Celtics in 5: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-16.32%)</span></li>
<li data-val="3"><span class="p1">4.</span> Celtics in 6: 15.81% <span class="m2">(-0.31%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4"><i><span class="m3">3.</span> Celtics in 7: 24.99%</i> <span class="p2">(+2.09%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><span class="p1">2.</span> Cavs in 7: 25.39% <span class="p2">(+3.39%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><b><span class="p1">1.</span> Cavs in 6: 33.81%</b> <span class="p2">(+11.15%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e3-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Game 5 Odds:
Celtics win 51%/Cavs Win 49%

Odds series goes 7 games: 50.38% (+5.47%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.50 (+0.21)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 40.8% likely (-14.54%)
Cavs win series: 59.2% likely (+14.54%)


Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw3-4">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Rockets in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><span class="p1">4.</span> Rockets in 6: 14.19% <span class="p2">(+11.21%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4"><span class="p1">3.</span> Rockets in 7: 20.48% <span class="p2">(+12.81%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><span class="p1">2.</span> Warriors in 7: 27.14% <span class="p2">(+14.63%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><b><span class="p1">1.</span> Warriors in 6: 38.19%</b> <span class="p2">(+5.99%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><s><i><span class="m3">5.</span> Warriors in 5: 0.0%</i></s> <span class="m2">(-44.64%)</span></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
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<button id="w3-4" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Game 5 Odds:
Rockets win 43%/Warriors Win 57%

Odds series goes 7 games: 47.62% (+27.44%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.48 (+0.72)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 34.67% likely (+24.02%)
Warriors win series: 65.33% likely (-24.02%)
 
Welp. 1 for 2 for Game 5 game predictions, but the series predictions are definitely out the window. Quick note on the Game 6s...both the Cavs and Warriors are projected to win each of their Game 6s, even though Celtics and Rockets are now favored to advance overall. That likely will not change even if a Game 7 is forced.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="ue3-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>5. Celtics in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><span class="p2">2.</span> Celtics in 6: 33% <span class="p2">(+17.19%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4"><b><span class="p2">1.</span> Celtics in 7: 36.18%</b> <span class="p2">(+11.19%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><span class="m1">3.</span> Cavs in 7: 30.82% <span class="p2">(+5.43%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><s><i><span class="m3">4.</span> Cavs in 6: 0.0%</i></s> <span class="m2">(-33.81%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e3-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Odds Cleveland forces Game 7: 67% (+16.62%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.67 (+0.17)

Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 69.18% likely (+28.38%)
Cavs win series: 30.82% likely (-28.38%)


Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw3-5">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Rockets in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><b><span class="p2">1.</span> Rockets in 6: 39%</b> <span class="p2">(+24.81%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4"><span class="p1">2.</span> Rockets in 7: 32.33% <span class="p2">(+11.85%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><span class="m1">3.</span> Warriors in 7: 28.67% <span class="p2">(+1.53%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><s><i><span class="m3">4.</span> Warriors in 6: 0.0%</i></s> <span class="m2">(-38.19%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>5. Warriors in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w3-5" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Odds Golden State forces Game 7: 61% (+13.38%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.61 (+0.13)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 71.33% likely (+36.66%)
Warriors win series: 28.67% likely (-36.66%)
 
Hey look, a correction! We've got some new Game 6 odds with Chris Paul out for the Rockets:

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw3-5-1">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Rockets in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><span class="p1">3.</span> Rockets in 6: 24% <span class="p2">(+9.81%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4"><span class="p1">2.</span> Rockets in 7: 35.72% <span class="p2">(+15.24%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><b><span class="p1">1.</span> Warriors in 7: 40.28%</b> <span class="p2">(+13.14%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><s><i><span class="m3">4.</span> Warriors in 6: 0.0%</i></s> <span class="m2">(-38.19%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>5. Warriors in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w3-5-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Odds Golden State forces Game 7: 76% (+28.38%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 3.76 (+0.28)

Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 59.72% likely (+25.05%)
Warriors win series: 40.28% likely (-25.05%)

And while i'm here let's just get Game 7 for Cavs and Celtics out of the way...Boston's homecourt advantage is expected to edge out another explosive LeBron performance in Game 7, but I could not be rooting harder for this to be wrong.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="ue3-6">
<li data-val="1"><s>6. Celtics in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>5. Celtics in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s><span class="m1">3.</span> Celtics in 6: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-33%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4"><b>1. Celtics in 7: 52%</b> <span class="p2">(+15.82%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><span class="p1">2.</span> Cavs in 7: 48% <span class="p2">(+17.18%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Cavs in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="e3-6" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Overall Odds:
Celtics win series: 52% likely (-17.18%)
Cavs win series: 48% likely (+17.18%)
 
Awesome! The model was a perfect 2 for 2 in Game 6s. Here is the last remaining projection in the Conference Finals round, WCF Game 7. No more posts until we have our Finals matchup set!

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
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<ul class="team" id="uw3-6-1">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Rockets in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>3. Rockets in 6: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-24%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4">2. Rockets in 7: 45% <span class="p2">(+9.28%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><b>1. Warriors in 7: 55%</b> <span class="p2">(+14.72%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Warriors in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>5. Warriors in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w3-6-1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 45% likely (-14.72%)
Warriors win series: 55% likely (+14.72%)

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Last edited:
Awesome! The model was a perfect 2 for 2 in Game 6s. Here is the last remaining projection in the Conference Finals round, WCF Game 7. No more posts until we have our Finals matchup set!

Houston Rockets (1) vs. Golden State Warriors (2)
[parsehtml]
<ul class="team" id="uw3-6">
<li data-val="1"><s>8. Rockets in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="2"><s>6. Rockets in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="3"><s>3. Rockets in 6: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-24%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4">2. Rockets in 7: 45% <span class="p2">(+9.28%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><b>1. Warriors in 7: 55%</b> <span class="p2">(+14.72%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><s>4. Warriors in 6: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>5. Warriors in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>7. Warriors in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="w3-6" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]Overall Odds:
Rockets win series: 45% likely (-14.72%)
Warriors win series: 55% likely (+14.72%)

[parsehtml]
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[/parsehtml]
Thanks for your efforts @shoes22
Let's hope you go 0-2 in Game 7 projections.
 
Hot of the presses!
Your Finals projections...aka probable bloodbath:

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<ul class="team" id="uf">
<li data-val="1">2. Warriors in 4: 22.62%</li>
<li data-val="2"><b>1. Warriors in 5: 35.01%</b></li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 17.46%</li>
<li data-val="4">4. Warriors in 7: 15.35%</li>
<li data-val="5">6. Cavs in 7: 3.37%</li>
<li data-val="6">5. Cavs in 6: 4.40%</li>
<li data-val="7">7. Cavs in 5: 1.22%</li>
<li data-val="8">8. Cavs in 4: 0.57%</li>
</ul>
<button id="f" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Game 1 Odds:
Warriors win 82%/Cavs Win 18%

Odds series goes at least 5 games: 76.81%
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 40.58%
Odds series goes 7 games: 18.72%
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.36

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 90.43% likely
Cavs win series: 9.57% likely
 
After Game 1...the projections really haven't budged at all, despite an impressive performance by the Cavaliers. Can the Cavs steal one in Oakland?

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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.p1 {
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li {
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<script>
function myFunction(test) {
var div = document.querySelector('#u' + test.id),
para = document.querySelectorAll('#u' + test.id + ' li');
if (div.className == 'team'){
div.className = 'pop';
test.textContent = 'Sort by Team';
} else {
div.className = 'team';
test.textContent = 'Sort by Probability';
}
var paraArr = [].slice.call(para).sort(function (a, b) {
if (div.className == 'team') {
console.log(a.attributes[0]);
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<ul class="team" id="uf1">
<li data-val="1">2. Warriors in 4: 25.57% <span class="p2">(+2.95%)</span></li>
<li data-val="2"><b>1. Warriors in 5: 34.28%</b> <span class="m2">(-0.73%)</span></li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 17.34% <span class="m2">(-0.12%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4">4. Warriors in 7: 13.62% <span class="m2">(-1.73%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5"><span class="p1">5.</span> Cavs in 7: 4.30% <span class="p2">(+0.93%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><span class="m1">6.</span> Cavs in 6: 3.88% <span class="m2">(-0.52%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7">7. Cavs in 5: 1.02% <span class="m2">(-0.2%)</span></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-0.57%)</span></li>
</ul>
<button id="f1" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Game 2 Odds:
Warriors win 76%/Cavs Win 24%

Odds Cleveland forces Game 5: 74.43% (-2.38%)
Odds series goes at least 6 games: 39.14% (-1.44%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 17.92% (-0.8%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.31 (-0.05)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 90.80% likely (+0.37%)
Cavs win series: 9.20% likely (-0.37%)
 
Whoops, almost forgot to post this. Here's how Game 3 looks.

The good news is, we're still projected to win 1 of the next 2 games!

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
[parsehtml]
<style>
ul {
margin:0;
margin-left: 0em !important;
padding: 0;
list-style-type: none;
}
.m1, .m2 {
color: #b30000;
}
.m3 {
color: #ff0000;
}
.p1 {
color: #0059b3;
}
.p2 {
color: #00b300;
}
li {
list-style: none !important;
}
</style>
<script>
function myFunction(test) {
var div = document.querySelector('#u' + test.id),
para = document.querySelectorAll('#u' + test.id + ' li');
if (div.className == 'team'){
div.className = 'pop';
test.textContent = 'Sort by Team';
} else {
div.className = 'team';
test.textContent = 'Sort by Probability';
}
var paraArr = [].slice.call(para).sort(function (a, b) {
if (div.className == 'team') {
console.log(a.attributes[0]);
return a.attributes[0].value > b.attributes[0].value ? 1 : -1;
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});
paraArr.forEach(function (p) {
div.appendChild(p);
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return false;
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<ul class="team" id="uf2">
<li data-val="1">2. Warriors in 4: 33.64% <span class="p2">(+8.07%)</span></li>
<li data-val="2"><b>1. Warriors in 5: 37.51%</b> <span class="p2">(+3.23%)</span></li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 14.38% <span class="m2">(-2.96%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4">4. Warriors in 7: 9.83% <span class="m2">(-3.79%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5">5. Cavs in 7: 2.94% <span class="m2">(-1.36%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6">6. Cavs in 6: 1.70% <span class="m2">(-2.18%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-1.02%)</span></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="f2" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Game 3 Odds:
Warriors win 58%/Cavs Win 42%

Odds Cleveland forces Game 5: 66.36% (-8.07%)
Odds Cleveland forces Game 6: 28.85% (-10.29%)
Odds series goes 7 games: 12.76% (-5.16%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 2.08 (-0.23)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 95.36% likely (+4.56%)
Cavs win series: 4.64% likely (-4.56%)
 
Alright, I know nobody is wanting to see this so I'm just going to get it out of the way now. Never been unhappier that my model has been perfect in a playoff round so for the first time ever.

Essentially, this series ended last night. There is only a 1 in 12 chance this even gets to a Game 6.

Golden State Warriors (2) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
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<style>
ul {
margin:0;
margin-left: 0em !important;
padding: 0;
list-style-type: none;
}
.m1, .m2 {
color: #b30000;
}
.m3 {
color: #ff0000;
}
.p1 {
color: #0059b3;
}
.p2 {
color: #00b300;
}
li {
list-style: none !important;
}
</style>
<script>
function myFunction(test) {
var div = document.querySelector('#u' + test.id),
para = document.querySelectorAll('#u' + test.id + ' li');
if (div.className == 'team'){
div.className = 'pop';
test.textContent = 'Sort by Team';
} else {
div.className = 'team';
test.textContent = 'Sort by Probability';
}
var paraArr = [].slice.call(para).sort(function (a, b) {
if (div.className == 'team') {
console.log(a.attributes[0]);
return a.attributes[0].value > b.attributes[0].value ? 1 : -1;
} else {
return a.textContent > b.textContent ? 1 : -1;
}
});
paraArr.forEach(function (p) {
div.appendChild(p);
});

return false;
}
</script>
<ul class="team" id="uf3">
<li data-val="1"><b><span class="p1">1.</span> Warriors in 4: 58%</b> <span class="p2">(+24.36%)</span></li>
<li data-val="2"><i><span class="m1">2.</span> Warriors in 5: 33.18%</i> <span class="m2">(-4.33%)</span></li>
<li data-val="3">3. Warriors in 6: 5.12% <span class="m2">(-9.26%)</span></li>
<li data-val="4">4. Warriors in 7: 2.93% <span class="m2">(-6.9%)</span></li>
<li data-val="5">5. Cavs in 7: 0.78% <span class="m2">(-2.16%)</span></li>
<li data-val="6"><s>6. Cavs in 6: 0.0%</s> <span class="m2">(-1.70%)</span></li>
<li data-val="7"><s>7. Cavs in 5: 0.0%</s></li>
<li data-val="8"><s>8. Cavs in 4: 0.0%</s></li>
</ul>
<button id="f3" class="button" onclick="return myFunction(this)">Sort by Probability</button><br><br>
[/parsehtml]
Odds Cleveland forces Game 5: 42% (-24.36%)
Odds Cleveland forces Game 6: 8.82% (-20.03%)
Odds Cleveland forces Game 7: 3.70% (-9.06%)
Series competitiveness rating (scale of 1-4): 1.54 (-0.54)

Overall Odds:
Warriors win series: 99.22% likely (+3.86%)
Cavs win series: 0.78% likely (-3.86%)
 
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