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2021 NBA Offseason Thread

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yeah, I don't see Lebron letting this fourth championship go now that it is right there for him. Ever since 2011 he has only lost when there was a really major talent and chemistry differential between the opponent and his available supporting cast. The Heat are good but are they that much better than the Lakers? Don't see it.
 
The Lakers roleplayers are average shooters but they're there to play tough defense and while guys like Dragic can score against anybody I just don't see the Lakers having a mismatch problem on defense. They should be able to play any of their base coverages or even a 3-2 zone and not have to worry too much about doubling. They've had to double some ridiculous offensive talent so far in Lillard, Harden, and Murray but with the Heat beat you more as a team with guys like Bam/Dragic/Butler creating mismatches. The Lakers have a lot of good 1/2 hybrid guys who match up well with Hero and Dragic. Then they can throw Green/Kuzma/Lebron onto Butler. Then unlike Boston they have AD/Howard who actually are bigger then Bam and just as athletic.

The Lakers aren't a great 1/2 court offensive team but they have two zone killers in Lebron and AD and unlike Milwaukee they should be able to hunt down and bully weak link in the post if they go to what they did against the Bucks. AD just overwhelmed Bam in the regular season and Lebron's Lebron and they have the personnel to hunt down these weaker defenders that Miami likes to trot out. Just seems like the Lakers have the mismatch advantage on both offense and defense in this one. They are really big and physical
 
What do people think about whether the Heat have a real shot in the Finals?

I've been surprised at statistical models like fivethirtyeight.com giving the Heat a 73% (!) chance to win (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) and the Ringer model giving them a not-bad 39% chance to win (https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/...a-restart-odds-playoffs-lakers-clippers-bucks).

I think statistical predictions are mostly junk, but still.

Bottom line is that AD+Lebron are significantly superior to Adebayo+Butler as a top two. Beyond that, yes, the Heat might be deeper or more talented but the gap at the top of the lineup seems too big to overcome. Also, the Lakers seem to have enough big men to smother Adebayo effectively, with such a good defensive coach in Vogel. They aren't going to have to roll a Grant Williams out there. It's hard for me to see the Heat taking four out of seven here. Of course I thought that the Bucks were going to beat them too.

Iguodala is an interesting X factor here. The Celtics series shows he still has it. Yes old but he's gotten a lot of rest this season. Specialist Lebron defender LOL.

Interesting thing is Miami played the Bucks really well in the regular season (Miami was the one team that many feared would cause them problems and that turned out to be true). They lost to the Lakers twice in the regular season.

Now the Heat are a different team with Crowder and Iggy then in the regular season but the issue they had was Bam was able to slow down Giannis but AD just killed the Heat as he the ultimate zone buster with that midrange game of his. The Lakers just present a lot of matchup problems for the Heat that they haven't had to face
 

Seems about right for a team that's flopped the last couple years in the playoffs...

It's actually pretty amazing to look back at Doc's coaching career and the overall lack of success in the playoffs despite having quite a bit of talent at his disposal.

Orlando - 5 Seasons
1 Missed playoffs
3 1st round loses
fired at the start of 5th year

Boston - 9 years
1 NBA Title
1 Loss in Finals
2 missed playoffs
2 1st round loses
2 2nd round loses
1 Conference Finals Loss

Clippers
3 1st Round loses
3 2nd Round loses
1 Missed playoffs

Total:
5 Missed playoffs
8 1st round loses
5 2nd round loses
1 Conference Finals loss
1 Finals loss
1 Finals win

Overall Playoff Record: 91-89

That's with having CP3, Griffin, Jordan, George, Piece, Rondo, Kawhi, TMac, Grant Hill, Garnett, Allen, etc.
 
Seems about right for a team that's flopped the last couple years in the playoffs...

It's actually pretty amazing to look back at Doc's coaching career and the overall lack of success in the playoffs despite having quite a bit of talent at his disposal.

Orlando - 5 Seasons
1 Missed playoffs
3 1st round loses
fired at the start of 5th year

Boston - 9 years
1 NBA Title
1 Loss in Finals
2 missed playoffs
2 1st round loses
2 2nd round loses
1 Conference Finals Loss

Clippers
3 1st Round loses
3 2nd Round loses
1 Missed playoffs

Total:
5 Missed playoffs
8 1st round loses
5 2nd round loses
1 Conference Finals loss
1 Finals loss
1 Finals win

Overall Playoff Record: 91-89

That's with having CP3, Griffin, Jordan, George, Piece, Rondo, Kawhi, TMac, Grant Hill, Garnett, Allen, etc.

I don't think his Celtics teams ever underachieved after becoming title contenders though. They made it to the finals twice, won once, got completely ravaged by injuries in the 2009 year, and got bounced by Miami's Big 3 multiple times in super close series.
 
A third of ESPN experts picking the Heat, interesting...


Higher than I would have expected

Just one person picking Lakers in 5. They know the Lakers beat the Rockets and the Nuggets in 5, right? Do people really think the Heat are a substantially tougher opponent? They probably would've been a 7th or 8th seed in the West. I'd love to see a good competitive series but can't see it happening realistically.
 
Just one person picking Lakers in 5. They know the Lakers beat the Rockets and the Nuggets in 5, right? Do people really think the Heat are a substantially tougher opponent? They probably would've been a 7th or 8th seed in the West. I'd love to see a good competitive series but can't see it happening realistically.

I get that, but the seeding is sort of irrelevant as Miami beat a team with a better record than the Lakers.

I think Bam and Butler can be neutralized, but I could also see the heat have a couple of overwhelmingly good shooting games while they guard the Lakers from 3 very well.

I'd say that the Lakers had the easier road so far, and the teams they beat had more easily exploited weaknesses than the Heat. Denver might be better than the Heat, but we will have to see. I think the defense made Miami better than the Nuggets.
 
I get that, but the seeding is sort of irrelevant as Miami beat a team with a better record than the Lakers.

I think Bam and Butler can be neutralized, but I could also see the heat have a couple of overwhelmingly good shooting games while they guard the Lakers from 3 very well.

I'd say that the Lakers had the easier road so far, and the teams they beat had more easily exploited weaknesses than the Heat. Denver might be better than the Heat, but we will have to see. I think the defense made Miami better than the Nuggets.

I see the point, but the Rockets were coming off a win over the Mavs, and the Nuggets were coming off a win over the Clippers. In theory, you beat a team like the Clippers, you should at least have a puncher's chance against the Lakers. But the Lakers are just on another level this year.

EDIT: Haha, I'll leave this up as a monument to my stupidity.
 
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I cannot believe I’m rooting for a fucking Lakers championship. But, this is what happens when you become so invested in one guy’s career. One that’s 18 years in the making
 
I see the point, but the Rockets were coming off a win over the Mavs, and the Nuggets were coming off a win over the Clippers. In theory, you beat a team like the Clippers, you should at least have a puncher's chance against the Lakers. But the Lakers are just on another level this year.

EDIT: Haha, I'll leave this up as a monument to my stupidity.

Easy to make assumptions from a small amount of time.

Def looks bad for the Heat. They can't guard them right now. Bam and Butler both get dominated. Still, the Lakers are shooting and insane 3 or percentage.

I'm afraid everyone saying you can't play Herro and Robinson against LeBron are right.

See if they can make adjustments.
 
Dragic was heading back to the court from the locker room when the trainer with him suddenly got a phone call and then they turned around?

I don’t know what I find more awesome, the fact that Riley has the trainers phone number or the fact that he’s playing 4D chess and already looking past this game as a loss.
 
The Heat look like a team that doesn’t want to be there anymore.
 
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