2019 Browns Off Season/Roster Discussion

Lee

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Doing some digging, I looked at 3 sports books. One had us as 6th best odds to win the AFC, but the other 2 had us 3rd best. Both had as behind NE and KC, and one had us ahead of Indy the other tied with Indy and Chargers.

Crazy, 3rd best odds to go to the superbowl, doesn't seem real.
 

Out of the Rafters at the Q

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The AFC is 100% about Tom Brady vs Father Time. Is this the year he finally meets his nemeses?

Also, with KC and Tyreke Hill and how much time does he miss? I already think KC isn't as strong because their defense got a bit weaker in my opinion, They brought in a half dozen new starters and changing the defense. That usually doesnt work out year 1, but we will see.

How about the Chargers? Were they a fluke? Or is that defense going to remain that strong with some new and healthy pieces. I tend to think SD might be the favorite in the AFC because I am thinking the Pats are finally on the decline.
The Chargers are my crush of a team. Derwin James might be the DPOY this season. That defense wasn't a fluke--it was a new defense based around a rookie where people missed time due to injuries... it's going to get way better.

The Chargers are my pick for best team in the AFC. The Patriots have Brady and Belicheck. That duo has beaten better teams than them their whole career. Coaching is such an under-appreciated (and direly important) part of football. It's the one sport where the coaching staff has an ENORMOUS impact on the game, often times more than the talent.
 

Out of the Rafters at the Q

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Doing some digging, I looked at 3 sports books. One had us as 6th best odds to win the AFC, but the other 2 had us 3rd best. Both had as behind NE and KC, and one had us ahead of Indy the other tied with Indy and Chargers.

Crazy, 3rd best odds to go to the superbowl, doesn't seem real.
I'd put NE, LAC as the two favorites. After them, CLE, IND. Houston, Jacksonville, KC, Baltimore all in the next tier.

I assume Tyreek misses the whole season. I assume Houston will hit major injuries. Otherwise they'd both be higher.
 

King Stannis

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Doing some digging, I looked at 3 sports books. One had us as 6th best odds to win the AFC, but the other 2 had us 3rd best. Both had as behind NE and KC, and one had us ahead of Indy the other tied with Indy and Chargers.

Crazy, 3rd best odds to go to the superbowl, doesn't seem real.
I think it is a three-team conference now in terms of talent on paper and the mix of talent: The Patriots (they are the best until proven otherwise), the Colts and the Browns.

I think KC took a step back. Their D was not good at all, got worse. Their O may lose a key player and teams have had a year to study them.
I think the Chargers are legit but their O is not as good as the Pats, Colts and Browns.
Houston needs to prove their offense can stay healthy.

The rest are hampered by serious deficiencies or losses in personnel.
 

jking948

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I think it is a three-team conference now in terms of talent on paper and the mix of talent: The Patriots (they are the best until proven otherwise), the Colts and the Browns.

I think KC took a step back. Their D was not good at all, got worse. Their O may lose a key player and teams have had a year to study them.
I think the Chargers are legit but their O is not as good as the Pats, Colts and Browns.
Houston needs to prove their offense can stay healthy.

The rest are hampered by serious deficiencies or losses in personnel.
I agree with @Out of the Rafters at the Q - the Chargers are going to be really good. Same with the Colts and Patriots.

Right now, I have the order as: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Browns.

The Colts are really good. Their is not one area where I see them declining this season, and my guess is that their defense improves.

Chargers probably have the best defense in the NFL this year. My only concern is if Phillip Rivers can pass when he faces interior pass rush. Basically every advanced stat has Rivers as a top-25 QB of all-time, and he is really quite good, but his declining arm strength is a problem.

Keenen Allen is a great wide receiver, but I do not trust Mike Williams to replicate his 2018, and after that is really murky. Tyrell Williams is gone and I have no idea who be their deep threat. I suppose the team thinks it will be Mike Williams, but between injuries and actual play, Williams was one of the worst receivers in the NFL his first year. I get that he was a rookie and had a weird season, but my guess is that his 2019 is in between the two years.

Browns are the biggest wild card in the NFL. Do not buy any predictive model because, as far as I know (and I know pretty well), there are no good models that predict QB progression or defensive year-to-year performance. They have a new coach, a new #1 WR, a second year quarterback, a new defensive system with more secondary players, a more progressive offense that will ask a lot of Baker, and a mid-season change at runningback. If most of this works out positively, then I think the Browns can have an insane season (12-4/13-3), but most of this may fail. It's just tough to tell and prognosticate.
 

6.19.2016

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I'd put NE, LAC as the two favorites. After them, CLE, IND. Houston, Jacksonville, KC, Baltimore all in the next tier.

I assume Tyreek misses the whole season. I assume Houston will hit major injuries. Otherwise they'd both be higher.
There's a very real chance that Tyreek will face little or no league discipline.

That said, I'm skeptical about the W/L value of elite WRs, and that includes #13 on our team.
 

Soda

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I find it a little weird that media members and ex NFL players who are criticizing Baker keep referring to this Duke Johnson thing as a "contract situation".

There is no contract situation. He's the 11th highest paid RB in all of football with three years left on his deal. He's certainly not underpaid for his production level. The case could certainly be made that he's overpaid.

So what's his beef? He found out he was being shopped and he's mad that things fell through? Guys get shopped all the time. Deal with it. This is a business.
I agree with this 100%. First, it's about securing money & it's not about anything but the money.... Until they get the money & then "not everything is about money." What Duke wants from the Browns is literally something no RB gets in the league.
 

sportscoach

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I find it a little weird that media members and ex NFL players who are criticizing Baker keep referring to this Duke Johnson thing as a "contract situation".

There is no contract situation. He's the 11th highest paid RB in all of football with three years left on his deal. He's certainly not underpaid for his production level. The case could certainly be made that he's overpaid.

So what's his beef? He found out he was being shopped and he's mad that things fell through? Guys get shopped all the time. Deal with it. This is a business.
I think Johnson's beef isn't his money, I think its the fact he wants to be out there all the time and he hasn't been out there all that much. He feels he should be and wants to be playing for a team who will play him all the time. At least that is what it feels like to me.

Now about Bakers comment, I didn't hear the whole thing, so I am not sure of his context about the comment.
 
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