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2019 Cleveland Browns Regular Season

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jking948 said:
I made a thread about this on Twitter, but in case people are curious (just humor me), the analytics models are actually uniformly picking the Browns to finish between 16th-18th in the NFL this year. I want to explain why.

(sorry for hijacking this thread, @Juice Is Loose, loved the Myles article).


1) Uncertainty about the head coach. Kitchens is a new HC, and new HCs tend to be unstable. My guess is that most models have Freddie making a negative impact (a neutral impact would be league average/team's schedule). Even more, I imagine those models have Freddie adding anywhere from half-to-one extra losses.

2) Baker Mayfield is going into his second year. This combines with the fact that his play under Hue was pretty underwhelming. Consequently, models viewed Baker as a league average QB last year, and project slight improvement. Expected points added models have Baker as a +2.5 win QB. Mahomes is a +5 and highest in the NFL.

3) Lots of roster overhaul adds even more instability. The Browns have eight new starters, five new additional rotation players, and unknown philosophies on both sides of the ball.

4) The offensive line is predicted to be significantly below average. Historically, the team only has one elite linemen and two average starters. Robinson is a big question mark and Kush is not that good.

5) The depth at a lot of positions just are not all that great. QB, WR, all offensive line positions, and all defensive line positions will be much worse in case of injury.

6) The Browns were 7-8-1 last season, 5-3 after Hue got fired, and only got one win against a playoff team. They played .500 football all year. The biggest positions they added this year are at receiver and secondary pass rusher - two positions reliant on other factors.

7) Compounding all of this is that the Browns play two games against the Ravens - who are another team with very similar problems - and the Steelers - who are actually a really reliable eight-to-ten win pick. The schedule may look easy, but it is actually pretty unpredictable.

I think this leads to two valuable pieces of information:

First, the best models we have still do not perform greatly at incorporating context. ELO models view the Browns as a slightly below .500 team, with lots of overhaul, whose QB will add about one more win than their total last season. They cannot incorporate how the players feel about Freddie, if they know his offense, how good Baker looked under Freddie, etc.

Second, with all of that said, the models do identify uncertainty with this Browns team. Incorporating new players is difficult, no matter the coach. Injuries are unpredictable and the Browns will be impacted more than most by such events. Overall, if you are risk averse, the Browns probably are not a team you want to root for.

Still, I think the models are underrating the Browns by about thirty total net points (which roughly equates to one win). My guess is the Browns go 9-7 and make the playoffs. If they avoid injuries, though, the sky is the limit.
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+1

Vee-Rex said:
I dislike how uncertainty is always viewed as BAD. Freddie being a new HC always seem to be viewed negatively rather than positively or simply neutral.

I could list 20 LEGITIMATE reasons why the Browns should be improved, vs about 5 hypotheticals (egos! new HC!) on why the Browns should regress.

The NFL is unpredictable and by no means am I guaranteeing anything, but how anyone can project the Browns to be WORSE is mind-boggling to me.
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Please see above.
 
Goldin Brown said:
Man, if we can go into Pittsburgh and stomp their ass again, I would forgive all the bullshit this team has put me through this season. Do your job.
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Poor choice of words...but I understand your point lol.

Would it pain you to see Rudolph beat us and be the hero?
 
Lord Mar said:
Poor choice of words...but I understand your point lol.

Would it pain you to see Rudolph beat us and be the hero?
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I'm just sick of the media's portrayal of this team and its players, it's been going on for far too long. I just want everyone to eat shit to be honest. I would just love it if this team went in to their building, take all that venom that's going to come at them, take the bullshit officiating that's sure to come and walk out with a W. That's all.
 
dkbldev said:
The comments on Ruiter's page are pretty good. I laughed when someone called him Tony Kay Cabot
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The hysterics from quite a few of the media members was quite a sight to behold.

Kudos to Dustin Fox, and Lane.Both were pretty honest with their assessment.

Ruiter, Fedor, Goldhammer, Grossi, all were acting like it was the end of the world.
 
Triple-S said:
The hysterics from quite a few of the media members was quite a sight to behold.

Kudos to Dustin Fox, and Lane.Both were pretty honest with their assessment.

Ruiter, Fedor, Goldhammer, Grossi, all were acting like it was the end of the world.
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I didn't get to see the brawl live as I was driving but I did listen to the post game. Dustin Fox would definitely fall under the "hysterics" category, at least during the postgame. He got pretty heated with Baskin about it, because he felt like Baskin was downplaying it. If I were to go by Dustin's reaction, Myles shanked Rudolph while he was playing chess in the yard.
 
Goldin Brown said:
I'm just sick of the media's portrayal of this team and its players, it's been going on for far too long. I just want everyone to eat shit to be honest. I would just love it if this team went in to their building, take all that venom that's going to come at them, take the bullshit officiating that's sure to come and walk out with a W. That's all.
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There is some precedent here. The last time this team would be motivated to play against another team, it was in Cincy last year. And they murdered the Bengals in Cincy.

I'm very curious to see how this helps build the team. They have gone through more adversity this season than any Browns team I can remember, and they are playing their best ball. If they can get a fully functioning death star against the Dolphins, I fully believe they can walk into the ketchup bottle and wipe their ass with their shitty little yellow towels.
 
Hey guys how's football go-

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So the game on Thursday was my first regular season win I’ve ever seen live for the Browns. I don’t go to a ton, but probably 10-12 games total in my life.

To repay my debt of seeing a real life win, I get back to my car and find it is one of 5 cars in a row that had its driver side window smashed in. I don’t keep anything valuable in my car but they stole a couple of phone chargers.

3 of the 5 cars wait for the police to show up to file a report, which of course takes over an hour because there are 70,000 people all trying to leave the city at the same time and we aren’t exactly high priority.

We finally get our report filed and go to leave, only for the same exact cop who filed our report to rear end my car coming out of the parking garage.

We have to wait another 45 minutes for his supervisor to show up to file another police report. We finally get to leave the city at 2:00am and are faced with an hour drive home on the coldest night of the year with no front window. The drive home was 10x colder than the game. Finally made it home at 3, with no semblance of a buzz left. That alarm sound to get the kids up in the AM came way too early.

So for me, that’s literally the cost I had to pay to finally see the Browns win.
 
B Mac said:
So the game on Thursday was my first regular season win I’ve ever seen live for the Browns. I don’t go to a ton, but probably 10-12 games total in my life.

To repay my debt of seeing a real life win, I get back to my car and find it is one of 5 cars in a row that had its driver side window smashed in. I don’t keep anything valuable in my car but they stole a couple of phone chargers.

3 of the 5 cars wait for the police to show up to file a report, which of course takes over an hour because there are 70,000 people all trying to leave the city at the same time and we aren’t exactly high priority.

We finally get our report filed and go to leave, only for the same exact cop who filed our report to rear end my car coming out of the parking garage.

We have to wait another 45 minutes for his supervisor to show up to file another police report. We finally get to leave the city at 2:00am and are faced with an hour drive home on the coldest night of the year with no front window. The drive home was 10x colder than the game. Finally made it home at 3, with no semblance of a buzz left. That alarm sound to get the kids up in the AM came way too early.

So for me, that’s literally the cost I had to pay to finally see the Browns win.
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What garage did you park in?
 
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