Dylan “Breaking” Windler is a Laker. How much help does LeBron need!?

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Kelsey Russo of The Athletic had this on Windler's latest injury. It came out a couple of weeks ago.

Patellar tendinopathy develops over time through wear and tear. Shubin Stein said it’s a common injury among jumping athletes like basketball players. It’s also a chronic injury, meaning people, and in particular basketball players, deal with the injury for an extended period of time.

Shubin Stein said if someone has tried all the most common treatments — modifying activity, wearing a brace and using ultrasound therapy — then the decision can be made to have surgery....

Shubin Stein said the typical recovery time for this type of surgery is about four months for an elite-level athlete. So what does that mean for Windler next season? After we spoke with a representative from Inside Injuries, it seems that Windler would not be able to participate in Summer League this offseason because of the nature of the recovery process. However, depending on how he recovers, he could be cleared for the start of the 2021-22 season....

Shubin Stein said if Windler can recover and return to playing and does not have pain, he could make a full recovery. She explained, however, that surgery isn’t the perfect answer. Sometimes, the procedure doesn’t work and people still deal with patellar issues.

Both the knee injury and the stress reaction — a precursor to a fracture — affected his left leg. He’s now had two surgeries on the same leg. However, Shubin Stein said the main questions focus on whether the two injuries are related, and whether they magnify one another. In general, the answer is no.

So he may be ready to go when next season starts but there's no guarantee he won't continue to have "patellar issues". The fact that it's a "chronic injury" doesn't look good.

 

[2 For The Brew]

Z had a much worse outlook but after 99 surgeries had a long career, albeit with some loss of ability.

Embiid’s injury was a long term concern but he’s been healthy.

We’ll just have to wait and hope for the best.

 

[WorldFreeB]

I feel really bad for the kid but Koby screwed the pooch on this one,,,shoulda taken Keldon Johnson.
Maybe they had zeroed in on KPJ at that point but he didn't end up working out either.

 

[Lee]

Z had a much worse outlook but after 99 surgeries had a long career, albeit with some loss of ability.

Embiid’s injury was a long term concern but he’s been healthy.

We’ll just have to wait and hope for the best.

Not sure how Z compares, Z had the fact he was 7'3 to make up for the fact he lost athletic ability. Windler doesnt have such a luxury.

 

[inliner311]

I feel really bad for the kid but Koby screwed the pooch on this one,,,shoulda taken Keldon Johnson.
Maybe they had zeroed in on KPJ at that point but he didn't end up working out either.

It would be interesting to know if the Cavs were taking Keldon Johnson for themselves or for the Spurs in that draft. They might have been taking him to trade back a couple spots and pick up the Spurs 2nd round pick. After they knew they secured KPJ with the package they had, that Spurs 2nd round pick could have been too many players to take in one draft.

The targets might have always been Windler and KPJ. That extra 2nd rounder would have been 4 rookies and they just did the Spurs a solid by rolling back the trade.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I was looking at Windler's numbers in cleaningtheglass.com, which compares a players' stats to those of others in the league that play the same position. Apples to apples, IOW. They list Windler as a "wing", along with Okoro, Stevens, and Thomas. Osman, Wade, and Prince are listed as "forwards". Allen, Nance, Love and Hartenstein are listed as "bigs".

Windler played 455 minutes this year (31 games times 14.7 minutes). Some may scream "small sample", but IMO that's enough minutes to get a decent feel for what he can do and what he can't.

There were actually some things Windler was very good at compared to other wings around the league. They were all on the defensive side of the ball, with one exception.

In block percentage he was in the 91st percentile. In steal percentage he was in the 75th percentile. In defensive rebounding he was in the 94th percentile. In foul percentage he was average; 53rd percentile. He was a guy who got steals and blocks while excelling on the defensive glass without committing a lot of fouls. Windler was an asset when the opponent had the ball.

Unfortunately, the only area where he played well on offense was offensive rebounding where he ranked in the 72nd percentile. On both ends of the floor Windler just has a knack for knowing where the missed shot will go and being in the right spot.

Offensively it's another story. His usage rate is in the 28th percentile, points per shot attempt 27th, assists per usage rate 50th, and turnover percentage zero. He was an average passer and a weak scorer.

Windler had a turnover rate of 20.5% - in the worst 1% of wings. He was a turnover machine, which is not surprising since 1) he's basically a rookie and 2) he played at Belmont - a small college. He didn't play against the level of athletes he was seeing in the NBA and probably wasn't prepared for the quickness, length, experience, and athleticisim. NBA players anticipated his passes and the result was more turnovers. I think once he gets more experience in the speed of the pro game his turnovers will decline. But right now he's almost unplayable because of the high turnover rate.

In terms of scoring he's also deficient in most areas. He was in the 59th percentile in 2-point percentage. But in 3-point percentage he was only in the 25th percentile, and he was drafted mainly to bring long range shooting. His effective field goal percentage was in the 33rd percentile, which is not that bad for a rookie who was a late round pick.

Windler was assisted on 77% of his field goals which puts him in the 33rd percentile. He didn't create that many shots on his own. On his 3-point makes he was assisted 95% of the time. Basically he was a spot-up guy who shot 3's when he got passed the ball; he didn't create his own 3-point shot like Steph Curry.

Bottom line is he didn't create many shots on his own, depending on teammates to set him up, and when he shot the ball it didn't go in often enough.

In terms of shot frequency he was in the 62nd percentile in shots at the rim, 11th in mid-range shots, 87th in corner 3's, and 48th in non-corner 3's. That's what you want to see - more shots at the rim and from the corner.

In terms on making those shots, Windler needs to get better at the rim (22nd percentile at 55%) and all the longer shots beyond 14 feet. He's especially bad at the long mid-range shots (14 feet to the 3-point line) where he's only in the 3rd percentile. But those are supposed to be a low percentage of shots anyway - everything is supposed to be either a 3 or at the rim.

Windler is good at the short mid-range shots from 4-14 feet (77th percentile). He's also above average on the non-corner 3's, hitting 38% which puts him in the 70th percentile. The problem is the corner 3's, which he takes a ton of, ranking in the 87 percentile in frequency. But he only ranks in the 5th percentile in accuracy at 25%. The corner 3 is supposed to be the easiest to make because it's the shortest distance, but Windler only made one of four. It's the only 3-point shot that is the same distance in the pros and in college. I can't figure out why he's so bad at them, but considering he hit 38% of non-corner 3's there's no question he can hit at least 40% from the corner. Maybe it's a mental block, but that one shot really hurts Windler because he takes so many (87th percentile) and misses so many (3 of 4).

So that's Windler compared to other "wings". He does a lot of things very well on defense. His offensive rebounding is very good and his defensive rebounding is elite. He has three major issues he has to improve on (besides staying healthy).

1. Turnovers. He can't be in the lowest 1% of wings if he wants to have an NBA career.

2. Finishing at the rim. He's only in the 22nd percentile despite being ambidextrous. I also noticed some instances when he had a very makeable layup or floater but chucked it out to the perimeter for fear of having his shot blocked. I don't think he played against any NBA level shot blockers at Belmont and he lacks confidence he can finish against bigs. He needs to develop a Garland style floater.

3. Corner 3's. If he just hit 42% of those shots instead of 25% his overall 3-point percentage would have been about 40%.

My view is there's no reason Windler can't fix all three of those problems. He's 6'7", jumps pretty well, and is ambidextrous. No reason he can't develop into a decent finisher at the rim. I think the reason he isn't better now is that he played at a lower level of competition in college.

He can reduce his turnovers simply with game experience and learning what passes and moves he can and can't get away with at this level. And there's no reason he can't become an above average shooter on corner 3's considering he hit 38% of the longer and more difficult 3's, ranking him in the 70th percentile.

If he can just get up to league average in those three areas he would be an above average wing considering he is excellent at steals, blocks, and rebounding at both ends.

Unfortunately, he probably won't be able to work on these areas much this summer as he'll be rehabbing from knee surgery. He'll be behind Okoro, Prince, and Cedi once training camp starts. I think this guy could be a very useful player if he can stay healthy and work hard on fixing his three major problem areas, but he may have to wait until '22-23 when Prince's contract has expired. He may also have competition from a draft pick this year or next, or if they draft a power forward like Kuminga and decide to start using Nance at the 3. He'll be 25 next season with very little NBA experience. The clock is ticking. There's also no guarantee that his patella problem won't be reoccurring.

 

[DatDudeZ3]

Some very off the mark takes in here from the first page of the thread LOL... This guy just isn’t going to pan out for us.

 

[Adam]

I wonder how much of his left leg problems are mechanics or morphology? Maybe that leg can't handle all the pressure it's taking, maybe it's overcompensating for a hip issue?

 

[Cavatt]

Really sucks for Windler. You want the guy to succeed, but many people thought his body woudn't hold up. I was optimistic because he had never had an injury in College.

Beilein ran this kid ragged and ruined his career

 

[DeeThree]

Really sucks for Windler. You want the guy to succeed, but many people thought his body woudn't hold up. I was optimistic because he had never had an injury in College.

Beilein ran this kid ragged and ruined his career

Too soon to tell.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Bottom line, anything we get from Windler next season will be a bonus. At this point I wouldn't even consider him part of the rotation.

 

[buzzdog]

So many people have already written the guy off as a bust. I think more patience is in order, see what he can do if he ever gets healthy. The numbers show he can hold his own on the defensive end. As for his offense, I tend to believe the outside shooting accuracy he showed over his college career will come back at the NBA level if he gets healthy and sees some regular minutes.

 

[The Oi]

How does this differ from jumper’s knee?

 

[foucault87]

I'm willing to give him another year. If he fan rediscover rhat shot he is instantly our best wing (sans the pick)

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm willing to give him another year. If he fan rediscover rhat shot he is instantly our best wing (sans the pick)

In late February Windler made nine 3's in a row over two games. John Michael and Austin Carr were going nuts. I thought Windler was going to take off from there but then he floundered, making only 3 of his next 22 before his season ended. I wonder if that's when his knee started bothering him.

Windler was injured in the season opener and was out for four weeks until late January. In the last six games of January Windler shot 61.9% from the field and 50.0% on 3's. He didn't take many shots, but was very efficient.

In February he shot 44.9% from the field and 36.6% from deep, which isn't bad for a rookie and better than Okoro's Feb numbers. In the last seven games of February he averaged 23 minutes a game. JBB had him on the floor almost half the game. That appears to be when his knee started acting up.

March is when he really went downhill, shooting 34.3% and 16.7%, a shocking decline from his Jan and Feb numbers. His turnovers increased dramatically. His last game was March 26 and he didn't play after that. In retrospect it seems obvious he was playing hurt in March and gutted it out as long as he could on an injured patella that was not responding to treatment and required surgery. He only averaged 12.5 minutes per game in March after averaging almost twice that many the last part of February and his performance cratered.

If we want an accurate picture of what Windler can do I think we have to throw out March, when he was obviously hurt, and look at a five-week period in late January and February. From Jan. 22 to Feb. 27 Windler shot 48.9% from the field and 40.0% on 3's. Those are excellent numbers for a rookie and when you throw in his rebounding and steals, which were well above average for his position, he was a pretty good player. He was averaging less than one turnover in 19.4 minutes per game. I could see why his minutes were climbing.

I really liked what I saw of him in Jan and Feb, especially considering he hadn't played real games in nearly two years and it was his first two months in the NBA. If Windler can get fully healthy and stay healthy for an entire season I think he is really going to surprise people.