2019 Draft, Pick #30 - Kevin Porter Jr., USC

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Funkmastabuck

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Porter looks like our SG of the future.

Is he talented enough to pass on Edwards with the #1 pick? I realize Edwards allegedly weighs 225, but at 6'5", I still see him as a SG prospect.

I'd lean towards Wiseman given the option based on what we have with Sexton and Porter, who both play like 2 guards.

Now, if Wiseman is off the board, sure, I suppose I'd be open to stockpiling yet another 2 guard.
 

inliner311

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Porter looks like our SG of the future.

Is he talented enough to pass on Edwards with the #1 pick? I realize Edwards allegedly weighs 225, but at 6'5", I still see him as a SG prospect.

I'd lean towards Wiseman given the option based on what we have with Sexton and Porter, who both play like 2 guards.

Now, if Wiseman is off the board, sure, I suppose I'd be open to stockpiling yet another 2 guard.
I think the nice thing about Porter is that he looks like he will be able to play either SG or SF so that adds to the flexibility with building this team.
 

The Human Q-Tip

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The huge, largest, absolutely terrible problem, though, is his defense. KPJ's opponents are shooting 8.6% better against him as the primary defender than on average and over the last fifteen games that number balloons up to 14.2%.

Basically, KPJ's last fifteen games show him as a phenomenal shooter, below average playmaker, and one of the worst defenders in the league.
The advanced stats I take with the biggest grain of salt are individual defensive numbers on a team that is very poor overall defensively. I'm not claiming he is a good or even average defender. It's just that there are so many breakdowns out there that guys tend to overreact/freelance more than they should, and that has a cascading effect that hurts everyone's numbers. I think that's especially true for younger players who lack the experience to stick with their guy when there is a breakdown elsewhere. It's like when an offensive lineman ends up hedging to help a weaker teammate, and as a result gives an advantage to the guy he's supposed to be blocking. His blocking numbers will be worse than they should be given his ability.

I think in situations like that, you have to put more weight on the eye test to at raw defensive abilities, and try to visualize what that guy would look like defensively if he was on a better defensive team. I'm not saying that defensive metrics should be ignored...just taken with a larger grain of salt.

Personally, Porter to me looks like he could end up as a plus defender someday. Garland is simply frightening at this point.
 
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jking948

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The advanced stats I take with the biggest grain of salt are individual defensive numbers on a team that is very poor overall defensively. I'm not claiming he is a good or even average defender. It's just that there are so many breakdowns out there that guys tend to overreact/freelance more than they should, and that has a cascading effect that hurts everyone's numbers. I think that's especially true for younger players who lack the experience to stick with their guy when there is a breakdown elsewhere. It's like when an offensive lineman ends up hedging to help a weaker teammate, and as a result gives an advantage to the guy he's supposed to be blocking. His blocking numbers will be worse than they should be given his ability.

I think in situations like that, you have to put more weight on the eye test to at raw defensive abilities, and try to visualize what that guy would look like defensively if he was on a better defensive team. I'm not saying that defensive metrics should be ignored...just taken with a larger grain of salt.

Personally, Porter to me looks like he could end up as a plus defender someday. Garland is simply frightening at this point.
Yeah, I don’t disagree, but the team is worse with him on the court and they have been all season.

I keep saying this, Porter has the tools to have an insanely high ceiling, but his floor is pretty damn low right now. He has every tool in the book to be a positive scorer, defender, and playmaker, but so do guys like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Ben McLemore, Rudy Gay, Harrison Barnes, etc.

My optimistic guess is that Porter ends up better than all of those guys while still not being a superstar. It’s just so incredibly rare for players to turn that talent into superstardom. And, right now, Porter isn’t having the on-floor impact to suggest that he’s knocking on that door.

With all of that said, I fundamentally believe it is time for the Cavs to start KPJ. Personally, I would move Garland and Cedi to the bench and start Sexton-Exum-KPJ-Love-Drummond and let Garland, Nance, Cedi, and TT lead the bench unit.
 

Wham with the Right Hand

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Yeah, I don’t disagree, but the team is worse with him on the court and they have been all season.

I keep saying this, Porter has the tools to have an insanely high ceiling, but his floor is pretty damn low right now. He has every tool in the book to be a positive scorer, defender, and playmaker, but so do guys like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Ben McLemore, Rudy Gay, Harrison Barnes, etc.

My optimistic guess is that Porter ends up better than all of those guys while still not being a superstar. It’s just so incredibly rare for players to turn that talent into superstardom. And, right now, Porter isn’t having the on-floor impact to suggest that he’s knocking on that door.

With all of that said, I fundamentally believe it is time for the Cavs to start KPJ. Personally, I would move Garland and Cedi to the bench and start Sexton-Exum-KPJ-Love-Drummond and let Garland, Nance, Cedi, and TT lead the bench unit.
"He’s incredibly talented and at his age he’s only going to get better and better in leaps and bounds." - Kevin Love on Kevin Porter Jr 1/31/20

Apparently Love doesn't agree that his floor is "pretty damn low right now."

As for not having an on-floor impact, I beg to differ. Against the Hawks he came off the bench to score 18 points in 32 minutes along with 4 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal. The Cavs were +18 when he was on the floor and +4 when he was on the bench. I think that can be considered an on-floor impact.
 

The Human Q-Tip

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As for not having an on-floor impact, I beg to differ. Against the Hawks he came off the bench to score 18 points in 32 minutes along with 4 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal. The Cavs were +18 when he was on the floor and +4 when he was on the bench. I think that can be considered an on-floor impact.
I don't think @jking948 was claiming that he never had a positive impact in even one game. He clearly has. The issue is his average overall net impact.
 

jking948

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"He’s incredibly talented and at his age he’s only going to get better and better in leaps and bounds." - Kevin Love on Kevin Porter Jr 1/31/20

Apparently Love doesn't agree that his floor is "pretty damn low right now."

As for not having an on-floor impact, I beg to differ. Against the Hawks he came off the bench to score 18 points in 32 minutes along with 4 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal. The Cavs were +18 when he was on the floor and +4 when he was on the bench. I think that can be considered an on-floor impact.
As I said, very high ceiling, but he’s been a net negative in the court all season. Though nothing like recency bias to respond to a full season trend.

Again, I am NOT saying Porter sucks. He is incredibly talented and, while I think his final product is closer to Jaylen Brown than a consistent all-star wing, I would argue that he’s the best young prospect on the team. But, not unlike Trae Young or many other young players, KPJ has not figured out how to turn his talent into an on-court positive impact. That was my entire point in literally every post, but don’t let facts get in the way of picking an argument.
 

jking948

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I don't think @jking948 was claiming that he never had a positive impact in even one game. He clearly has. The issue is his average overall net impact.
Yeah, exactly. That was by far his best game, and damn, if he looks like that for the rest of the season then I will be super optimistic about this team going into next year.
 

Rich

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Currently Porter needs to just work on playing a little more within the team.

He's been kind of a turnover machine at times and he likes to stop the ball.
 

AllforOne

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Again, I am NOT saying Porter sucks. He is incredibly talented and, while I think his final product is closer to Jaylen Brown than a consistent all-star wing, I would argue that he’s the best young prospect on the team. But, not unlike Trae Young or many other young players, KPJ has not figured out how to turn his talent into an on-court positive impact. That was my entire point in literally every post, but don’t let facts get in the way of picking an argument.
So why don't you like Porter? ;)

I actually don't think y'all are all that far apart. Porter's overall body of work (42 games) isn't the best, especially by some of the advanced numbers. However, he's showing improvement. Those numbers have been improving over the course of the season. Putting on my Captain Small Sample Size hat, his past two games have arguably been his best -- 17/18 points (on well over 50% shooting), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal in each ... oh yeah, and zero turnovers.

And that's for a 19-year-old kid ... one on a very team-friendly contract for three more seasons after this one. One who seems very coachable and who has a feel for the game.

I'd really like to see what he and Sexton could do as the starting backcourt. They'll have some head-smacking mistakes ... but also plenty of "yeah!" moments.
 

Wham with the Right Hand

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I think Porter is figuring out very quickly how to "turn his talent into a positive on-court impact". Porter missed three weeks with a knee injury. His first game back he was limited to 16 minutes but still scored 9 points. In the seven games since then he's averaging 16.1 ppg in 28 minutes. Since returning from the injury he's shooting 51.7% from the field and 48.5% from deep. He's the scorer the second unit needs because Exum, McKinnie, and Thompson can't create their own shot.

Porter was very inconsistent earlier in the season. For example, he scored 24 points against Houston and five the next night against the Spurs. But just look at his numbers the last seven games and tell me he hasn't figured out how to make a positive impact on the court.
 

Cavatt

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No, you didn't, but that's fine.

Regarding stats, I am referring to every advanced metric - RPM, RAPM, PIPM, BPM, VORP, and VORP WS - that have him ranked as one of the ten worst players in the league. He has a 55% true shooting (average). His net rating was -1.1 with a 37% TS%, November was -19.9 with a 48.8% TS%, December was -7.9 with a 55% TS%, January was -5 with a 58.5% TS%, and February was a -13.8 with a 61.1% TS%. So yes, his shooting has improved every month, even though it is not reflected in his advanced metrics.

A big reason why his January and February (10 games) are so impressive is that his assist/turnover ratio (1.2 assists to every turnover) has improved along with his shooting... but that number is still pretty bad, especially with a 20%+ usage. He has gone from a horrific playmaker to a below-average one, but his shooting is definitely improving.

The huge, largest, absolutely terrible problem, though, is his defense. KPJ's opponents are shooting 8.6% better against him as the primary defender than on average and over the last fifteen games that number balloons up to 14.2%.

Basically, KPJ's last fifteen games show him as a phenomenal shooter, below average playmaker, and one of the worst defenders in the league. This is why his advanced stats have barely improved throughout the season. He is prone to turnovers and is a horrible defender.

Now, let me be very clear: I really like Kevin Porter Jr. and think he will be a very good player in this league. But it will take more than hard work and keeping a good head on his shoulders to do so, which was the initial post I was responding to.

I honestly am not trying to pick a fight, though it seems like you are, but I really do like KPJ. This idea that he is some franchise savior and just needs to work hard to become a superstar, however, is profoundly incorrect. He has the potential to become a superstar, but he also has a really long way to go.
So, in other words he is rapidly improving, but he isn't a plus defender at 19 on the 2nd worst defending team in the league?

Reading your post makes me more optimistic instead of less about him. Do you honestly think he is one of the worst 10 players in the league? I don't at all. I think Darius has a bigger barrier to entry than Porter, but that's my opinion.

Of course, I think Sexton is a better defender than Trae Young, but the advanced numbers say I am wrong.
 

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