The reason Garland was drafted so high, and the reason I was so high on him, was because he looked like he was going to be an elite shooter. Period. He looked like the next Steph Curry.
Now the issue is whether injuries and inconsistent playing have changed his potential, or merely delayed his development. That decision needs to be made before the draft. Confidence in Garland will lead to the Cavs drafting Toppin or Wiseman. A lack of confidence means we take Ball.
That would immediately give the Cavs a big backcourt with Ball and KPJ. Sexton comes off the bench as instant offense. But then Garland never develops an rots on the bench.
I keep reading that the Cavs just need to take the best player and maximize the talent because they're so far from being contenders. The prevailing wisdom is you just grab the best player regardless of position for a few years and then sort it out.
However, this year there is no consensus at the top of the draft. There are 5-6 players who are pretty similar in terms of potential so it might be better to take one at the positon of greatest need.
"This is a unique draft. Anybody who has it figured out already is lying. There’s no consensus first pick. There’s no consensus top 5 yet. Anything from like No. 6 on down, it’s a total crapshoot." - Fran Fraschilla, ESPN
Here's a recent comment on Garland:
"Garland? Egads. He’s a skill guy and sometimes those guys need more time to find their way, but he looked completely overmatched as a rookie. I’d be pretty worried about this if I were the Cavs, given that they used the fifth overall pick on him. Also, both Garland and Sexton are 6-1 and below-average defenders. I don’t see any way the Cavs can continue to start them together and expect to win. At the very least, I would think bringing Garland off the bench might put him in a better position to succeed". - John Hollinger, former NBA executive
Hollinger added,
"Fortunately, the other thing the guards in this draft have is size. If you look at the potential top six players (the Cavs can finish no worse than sixth in the lottery), Cleveland won’t be picking another (small guard): LaMelo Ball is 6-6, Killian Hayes and Tyrese Halliburton are 6-5, and Anthony Edwards is 6-4 and built like a tank. That makes it easier to pair one of these guys with Sexton and/or Garland; in fact, it’s likely preferable to playing Garland and Sexton together."
Bickerstaff explained what the Cavs are looking for.
"[We need] Swiss Army knives. Dribble, pass, shoot, and versatility on the defensive end of the floor. Long guys, athletic guys, fast guys. Those types of players that can do a bunch of different things, especially on the defensive end of the floor. And then offensively, having the ability to break guys down off the bounce. From an offensive standpoint, it’s how much skill can we put on the floor. And it doesn’t even matter position to me anymore. You just want to be able to put skill on the floor at all positions. And then obviously those positions can complement one another with their different strengths."
So who in this draft best fits the template of "long, athletic, fast guys" who can break down an opponent off the dribble and guard different positions on defense?