2019 NBA Draft

[Cavatt]

Yeah, I think that's a reasonable position. Could go either way on it depending on what exactly the protections are, and I also go back and forth on whether or not RJ is actually a much better prospect than Culver. But definitely feels less scary to drop from 2 to 3 in this draft than it does to drop from 3 to 4.

Yeah I could see Culver being 85% of RJs offensive upside and way way better on defense. Either would be good as a supplementary playmaker to Collin. Both fit really well in a sort of decentralized offense with Love, Collin, and Cedi.

Maybe Culver ends up being better, but I don't think so. I think on a team with good 3 point shooters, RJ gets to the rack at will and racks up assists kicking it out to Collin and Love.

I also have changed my mind on Collin and his assist ability. Those last few games of the year teams were more serious about stopping him. A couple of teams like the spurs were able to, and Collin made the right passes. I think he has better vision than people give him credit for. He needs the game to slow down a bit. As he learned where his guys were over the course of the year he started finding them better especially the corner 3 on the drive and to the wing just like he should.

He is not a CP3 level vision guy, but like you said about Curry, who I don't believe is either, I think he can be a better decision maker and know where his guys are. I think Delly is helping him with that and that can be learned from watching tape.

It's different from Clarkson where, "He just feels it he has no idea what he is gonna do".

 

[Cavatt]

Yeah I could see Culver being 85% of RJs offensive upside and way way better on defense. Either would be good as a supplementary playmaker to Collin. Both fit really well in a sort of decentralized offense with Love, Collin, and Cedi.

Maybe Culver ends up being better, but I don't think so. I think on a team with good 3 point shooters, RJ gets to the rack at will and racks up assists kicking it out to Collin and Love.

I also have changed my mind on Collin and his assist ability. Those last few games of the year teams were more serious about stopping him. A couple of teams like the spurs were able to, and Collin made the right passes. I think he has better vision than people give him credit for. He needs the game to slow down a bit. As he learned where his guys were over the course of the year he started finding them better especially the corner 3 on the drive and to the wing just like he should.

He is not a CP3 level vision guy, but like you said about Curry, who I don't believe is either, I think he can be a better decision maker and know where his guys are. I think Delly is helping him with that and that can be learned from watching tape.

It's different from Clarkson where, "He just feels it he has no idea what he is gonna do".

And just to be clear. I don't think a Morant centered offense, which may look really cool, is going to be as unstoppable as 4 guys on the court that can attack and pass. A playmaking wing or 2(counting Cedi) along with a potent scoring pg and a wily old sweet shooting big seems like a really intriguing team to me, and one that can be really fun and difficult to guard.

You just see over and over again in the playoffs these great passing guys get shut down. Harden is teh best passer in the game and is almost unstoppable offensively and still guys can slow him down or make him inefficient in the playoffs. Is Morant going to be better than Harden? No

 

[Nathan S]

Anyone watching Portsmouth? Couple of guys I would prioritize as undrafted FAs if I were the Cavs...

Josh Reaves - Penn State
DaQuan Jeffries - Tulsa
James Palmer - Nebraska

I'll end up having all three guys in my top 50 probably.

Seems like Reaves and Jeffries probably helped their stock the most...still don't really trust Jeffries, but I think Reaves is a definite top-50 guy now, maybe good enough to be worth a look with the Rockets' pick. Like Thybulle, he'd be a great defensive guard/wing to play next to Sexton, but he seems less offensively limited than Thybulle.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Seems like Reaves and Jeffries probably helped their stock the most...still don't really trust Jeffries, but I think Reaves is a definite top-50 guy now, maybe good enough to be worth a look with the Rockets' pick. Like Thybulle, he's be a great defensive guard/wing to play next to Sexton, but he seems less offensively limited than Thybulle.

I’ve always wished Reaves got more attention. Even back last year when Tony Carr got some buzz, I always felt like Reaves was the better prospect.

His steal rate isn’t a fluke either... he’s all over the place. Probably his best trait is just his feel for the game on both ends. There’s some untapped playmaking potential there on offense as well that he will likely need in the NBA given his size. It’s easy for me to be fooled by lefties, but the shot looks good as well... I’ve seen him hit shots off movement on a few occasions. Perfect glue guy that every team should want.

IIRC both Reaves and Jeffries are somewhat young for an average senior too. Jeffries is pretty much a prototypical 3&D wing to me. Plays bigger than his listed height.

There’s so much to be shaken out though with all the early entrance players, but it wouldn’t surprise me if both went undrafted. I think there’s some pretty solid seniors this year even beyond the guys I named, so I’m very interested to see if they pick anyone up for training camp or free up a two-way slot. I found it odd that Deng Adel didn’t get much run for the Cavs once the GLeague season ended and his days on the active roster didn’t count towards the cap. I know SirDominic Pointer had a great statistical year also. What they’ve done at the back of the roster has confused me some the last couple years lol.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Haven't posted a ton recently, been busy doing a handful of things here.....one being translating some of the possession based stats in to a website. Some of the content will update in the next few weeks but I thought I'd give some of the people in this thread a head start in taking a peek.

http://nbadraftstock.com/

In the rankings section, OVERALL , GS/ADJ, GS/NET, POS/DIFF links at the top of the page allow you to sort players by their given rankings in a single category.

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-2019/

Currently, overall ranks are a little screwy with some guys staying in the draft or others dropping out. I'll update probably at the end of this week. My overall ranks I haven't really adjusted, beyond pick #30, since prior to the NCAA tourney. A lot of guys in the UDFA pool will move in.....but it is what it is for right now.

There's also historical All-Star data if you want to look:

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-nba-all-stars/

And then HoopsHype Aggregate.....to see the differences in how my system views guys with consensus ranks.

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-aggregate-2019/

Anyway, take a look and let me know what you think. It's mobile friendly, so view it on your phone as well. Would love feedback on things people would like to see.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Anyone watching Portsmouth? Couple of guys I would prioritize as undrafted FAs if I were the Cavs...

Josh Reaves - Penn State
DaQuan Jeffries - Tulsa
James Palmer - Nebraska

I'll end up having all three guys in my top 50 probably.

The stuff I look at rates them this way:

Jeffries - Really like him. He lands in the top 40 of all 3 statistical calculations my stuff tracks. Only 23 NBA prospects out of the 120 ish I have data on rate similarly. So clearly it thinks he, production wise, is a real possibility for the Rockets pick. Throw in his athleticism and he seems like a nice sleeper candidate on the wing. He's currently not ranked, as I have not gotten to adjusting 31-60 yet.....Just based on his production, frame, athleticism, I think you can make an argument for him as a 1st rounder. His composite rank in my system is #30.

Reaves - Pre NCAA, I had him at 56 overall, which seems about right to me. Just profiles as a nice reserve defensive guard. Like his size, toughness.....probably stick in that similar last 10 players drafted range.

Palmer - All my stuff is just really cool on him. Profiles as an UDFA to me all the way. I like his frame, he just has really "meh" production across all categories. My calculation likes his teammate though (Roby).

 

[Nathan S]

Haven't posted a ton recently, been busy doing a handful of things here.....one being translating some of the possession based stats in to a website. Some of the content will update in the next few weeks but I thought I'd give some of the people in this thread a head start in taking a peek.

http://nbadraftstock.com/

In the rankings section, you can use OVERALL , GS/ADJ, GS/NET, POS/DIFF links at the top of the page allow you to sort players by their given rankings in a single category.

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-2019/

Currently, overall ranks are a little screwy with some guys staying in the draft or other dropping out. I'll update probably at the end of this week. My overall ranks I haven't really adjusted, beyond pick #30, since prior to the NCAA tourney. A lot of guys in the UDFA pool will move in.....but it is what it is for right now.

There's also historical All-Star data if you want to look:

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-nba-all-stars/

And then HoopsHype Aggregate.....to see the differences in how my system views guys with consensus ranks.

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-aggregate-2019/

Anyway, take a look and let me know what you think. It's mobile friendly, so view it on your phone as well. Would love feedback on things people would like to see.

I'll have to take a closer look later, but the first thing I noticed is that the ages for a lot of guys are off...e.g. Clarke and Porter are both 21.0 years old on your site, but really Porter's 19 going on 20 and Clarke's 22 going on 23. What's going on there (and is it potentially messing up any of the ratings)?

 

[I'mWithDan]

I'll have to take a closer look later, but the first thing I noticed is that the ages for a lot of guys are off...e.g. Clarke and Porter are both 21.0 years old on your site, but really Porter's 19 going on 20 and Clarke's 22 going on 23. What's going on there (and is it potentially messing up any of the ratings)?

I should include some note on the site for age......Ages are for January 1st of their rookie year.

Everyone has a preference on how to compare the ages of prospects but I tend to mentally model how old they are as they finish their 1st season.

In the cases above, I'll double check. Sounds like I forgot to enter them, as 21.0 is the default. Might owe you a QA reference on the site

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Haven't posted a ton recently, been busy doing a handful of things here.....one being translating some of the possession based stats in to a website. Some of the content will update in the next few weeks but I thought I'd give some of the people in this thread a head start in taking a peek.

http://nbadraftstock.com/

In the rankings section, OVERALL , GS/ADJ, GS/NET, POS/DIFF links at the top of the page allow you to sort players by their given rankings in a single category.

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-2019/

Currently, overall ranks are a little screwy with some guys staying in the draft or other dropping out. I'll update probably at the end of this week. My overall ranks I haven't really adjusted, beyond pick #30, since prior to the NCAA tourney. A lot of guys in the UDFA pool will move in.....but it is what it is for right now.

There's also historical All-Star data if you want to look:

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-nba-all-stars/

And then HoopsHype Aggregate.....to see the differences in how my system views guys with consensus ranks.

http://nbadraftstock.com/rankings-aggregate-2019/

Anyway, take a look and let me know what you think. It's mobile friendly, so view it on your phone as well. Would love feedback on things people would like to see.

This is awesome.

The stuff I look at rates them this way:

Jeffries - Really like him. He lands in the top 40 of all 3 statistical calculations my stuff tracks. Only 23 NBA prospects out of the 120 ish I have data on rate similarly. So clearly it thinks he, production wise, is a real possibility for the Rockets pick. Throw in his athleticism and he seems like a nice sleeper candidate on the wing. He's currently not ranked, as I have not gotten to adjusting 31-60 yet.....Just based on his production, frame, athleticism, I think you can make an argument for him as a 1st rounder. His composite rank in my system is #30.

Reaves - Pre NCAA, I had him at 56 overall, which seems about right to me. Just profiles as a nice reserve defensive guard. Like his size, toughness.....probably stick in that similar last 10 players drafted range.

Palmer - All my stuff is just really cool on him. Profiles as an UDFA to me all the way. I like his frame, he just has really "meh" production across all categories. My calculation likes his teammate though (Roby).

Yea Palmer's statistical profile is pretty ugly lol. Completely going off of eye test with him. I doubt I'd use a draft pick on him, but is just a UFA that I'd want to try out. He has a complete shot chucker mentality, but would probably be best suited in a different role where I'd think he could excel. Based on DX's interview with him at Portsmith, I'm not too convinced he'll change his ways. It's clear he loves playing on the ball and being an instant-scorer type. Even so, having a handler at his size frees up a lot of lineup options for your team. He's also a better defender than your typical player in that shot chucking archetype. Roby I've watched a fair bit on as well... the shooting + rim protection combo is rare for a guy you could probably get in the 2nd. He's just about the most tentative shooter I've seen this year though lol. I go back and forth on him.

Also I named those three guys after just the first game of Portsmith I believe, so I'm glad that others seemed to have warmed up on them as well.

Here are a couple of others I noticed since posting those names that I'd be interested in if you guys are curious:

Jessie Govan - Georgetown
Jeremiah Martin - Memphis
Justin Robinson - VTech
Quinndary Weatherspoon - Miss St (will probably grade out well on models)
Nick Perkins - Buffalo
Cameron Jackson - Wofford
Justin James - Wyoming
Terence Davis - Ole Miss

I know Jon Konchar also has about as good of a statistical profile as anyone in that tournament, though it isn't the best setting for him... he didn't stick out at all, which is to be expected.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Here are a couple of others I noticed since posting those names that I'd be interested in if you guys are curious:

Jessie Govan - Georgetown
Jeremiah Martin - Memphis
Justin Robinson - VTech
Quinndary Weatherspoon - Miss St (will probably grade out well on models)
Nick Perkins - Buffalo
Cameron Jackson - Wofford
Justin James - Wyoming
Terence Davis - Ole Miss

I know Jon Konchar also has about as good of a statistical profile as anyone in that tournament, though it isn't the best setting for him... he didn't stick out at all, which is to be expected.

Out of that list, my stuff also likes Robinson, Konchar and Davis. All 3 will likely make the top 60.

Robinson is the guy I have the toughest time with. As @Nathan S has mentioned before, Hoy likes him too and my stuff generally loves him, even as an older prospect (like Jeffries, top 40 in all 3 categories) but I have a tougher time seeing it when I watch him. I think he's certainly a draftable player, I'm just not sure where I slot him.

A handful of those guys fell off mid season (Govan, Martin, Perkins, Jackson, James), as I was trying to trim the player pool. I'll have to take a second look once I have some time, now that the season is over.

 

[Nathan S]

This is awesome.



Yea Palmer's statistical profile is pretty ugly lol. Completely going off of eye test with him. I doubt I'd use a draft pick on him, but is just a UFA that I'd want to try out. He has a complete shot chucker mentality, but would probably be best suited in a different role where I'd think he could excel. Based on DX's interview with him at Portsmith, I'm not too convinced he'll change his ways. It's clear he loves playing on the ball and being an instant-scorer type. Even so, having a handler at his size frees up a lot of lineup options for your team. He's also a better defender than your typical player in that shot chucking archetype. Roby I've watched a fair bit on as well... the shooting + rim protection combo is rare for a guy you could probably get in the 2nd. He's just about the most tentative shooter I've seen this year though lol. I go back and forth on him.

Also I named those three guys after just the first game of Portsmith I believe, so I'm glad that others seemed to have warmed up on them as well.

Here are a couple of others I noticed since posting those names that I'd be interested in if you guys are curious:

Jessie Govan - Georgetown
Jeremiah Martin - Memphis
Justin Robinson - VTech
Quinndary Weatherspoon - Miss St (will probably grade out well on models)
Nick Perkins - Buffalo
Cameron Jackson - Wofford
Justin James - Wyoming
Terence Davis - Ole Miss

I know Jon Konchar also has about as good of a statistical profile as anyone in that tournament, though it isn't the best setting for him... he didn't stick out at all, which is to be expected.

My model defies your expectations: it likes Palmer and hates Weatherspoon

Out of the other guys you mentioned, it also likes Konchar, Martin, Jackson (small asterisk as they played relatively weak schedules), and Robinson to be positive-impact NBA players.

I've been looking at plus/minus stats some today and Robinson really jumps off the page. Virginia Tech was a staggering 32 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than they were with Alexander-Walker on the court.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Guys that my calculations say should be drafted higher that don't get a ton of love.

Top 30 composite players listed as late seconds or UDFA in aggregate ranks

Paul Reed
CJ Massingburg
Caleb Martin
Aric Holman
Zach Norvell Jr
Justin Robinson
Cassius Winston
DaQuan Jeffries
Chris Clemons
Neemias Queta
Juwan Morgan
Kyle Guy

I don't think all of these players should be 1st round picks, not at all but it does flag them as underrated by consensus draft evaluators.

The interesting players to me on this list are Reed, Martin, Holman, Robinson and Jeffries. I like others but those 5 strike me as guys who are underrated and have quantifiable NBA skills.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Guys that my calculations say should be drafted higher that don't get a ton of love.

Top 30 composite players listed as late seconds or UDFA in aggregate ranks

Paul Reed
CJ Massingburg
Caleb Martin
Aric Holman
Zach Norvell Jr
Justin Robinson
Cassius Winston
DaQuan Jeffries
Chris Clemons
Neemias Queta
Juwan Morgan
Kyle Guy

I don't think all of these players should be 1st round picks, not at all but it does flag them as underrated by consensus draft evaluators.

The interesting players to me on this list are Reed, Martin, Holman, Robinson and Jeffries. I like others but those 6 strike me as guys who are underrated and have quantifiable NBA skills.

Would expect that Reed, Norvell, Winston, Queta, and Guy are all hurt quite a bit in mocks due to the expectation of them returning. Guy announced recently he is staying the in the draft, so it'll be interesting to see whether or not people start moving him up on mocks. I don't think he's worthy of being picked though.

Holman is an interesting prospect... I think he'll get drafted. He's almost a first round level talent, but he just takes so many plays off. Takes terrible shots too, which showed up some in Portsmouth. He even got taken out of the rotation last season.

I'm surprised when I see people hate on Norvell sometimes. He has a clear cut NBA skill with his jumper. He's literally CJ Miles 2.0 which is a useful player in the second round.

I too don't know how well Robinson will translate to the NBA. The passing is very impressive, and I definitely buy his shooting. The on-off numbers are insane, like Nathan mentioned... I will say though that VTech really doesn't have any other great passers on their team, and he definitely benefited from being able to run the show for maybe the best spaced team in NCAA. He measured with a sub 8-foot standing reach. He competes, but I doubt there are many guys in the league that small.

 

[Nathan S]

Guys that my calculations say should be drafted higher that don't get a ton of love.

Top 30 composite players listed as late seconds or UDFA in aggregate ranks

Paul Reed
CJ Massingburg
Caleb Martin
Aric Holman
Zach Norvell Jr
Justin Robinson
Cassius Winston
DaQuan Jeffries
Chris Clemons
Neemias Queta
Juwan Morgan
Kyle Guy

I don't think all of these players should be 1st round picks, not at all but it does flag them as underrated by consensus draft evaluators.

The interesting players to me on this list are Reed, Martin, Holman, Robinson and Jeffries. I like others but those 6 strike me as guys who are underrated and have quantifiable NBA skills.

My draft rater likes Winston and Massinburg the most out of those guys, is lukewarm on all of the others except Guy, who it absolutely hates (thinks he's a lost cause defensively, not good enough offensively to make up for it).

 

[I'mWithDan]

My draft rater likes Winston and Massinburg the most out of those guys, is lukewarm on all of the others except Guy, who it absolutely hates (thinks he's a lost cause defensively, not good enough offensively to make up for it).

Why are you Luke warm on Reed? He’s the one prospect I’ve seen a couple times in person and was just really impressed with him.

Solid shooter with stretch potential. Super long. When he spreads his arms out, it looks like he's half a foot taller. Can score back to basket or facing up. Improving dribble (with a ways to go). Still just really young (played his entire sophomore year at 19). Plays with energy and has more sneaky athleticism. Potential as a kind of Hybrid 3/4 rim protector.

It looks like he is going back but it would not surprise me at all to see him emerge as a late lottery pick / top 20 guy next year. I honestly like his potential that much. He falls in my sweet spot of...

1. Definable NBA skills (rebounding, weakside rim protection, hustle stats (2.1 BLK+STL+OREB/PF))

2. NBA athlete with length.

3. Good FT shooter and a willingness to take 3's, even at low volume.

4. Incredibly low 3P/PTS number.

Those are the profile types who mature, get stronger, see a bump in their outside shooting and suddenly become 3 level scorers (guys who are average possession based scorers, without realizing the shooting potential they have just have scoring efficiency left to wring out).....in addition to their length, athleticism and hustle skills.

He's the one guy returning who I am genuinely excited about watching develop. He's going to have a chance to step in to a huge role too, with DePaul losing their top 3 scorers (Reed was 4th).