2019 NFL Regular Season Thread

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The Oi

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Feels like this scenario could absolutely happen with Garrett.
Elite players don't just retire in their prime for no reason when they can still make millions. I can't see Garrett doing something like this unless his body starts to break down on him like Luck's did or he's seriously worried about his future due to multiple head injuries like Kuechly must be.

Or if they get secretly suspended for gambling like Jordan.

Garrett is a different kind of cat. He’s also part of a generation of players watching their role models (Kuechly and Luck wont be the last of them) retire in their athletic primes.

Even before entering the league, he talked about retiring after 10 years or so which would put him at 30-31.

These guys are multi multi millionaires the minute they enter the league. If they save enough money and have interests outside of football, they could support themselves for a very long time and with the notoriety they established, some would likely would have little problems re-entering the arena as commentators or analysts in some area should they so choose. I think Myles is probably very serious about having interests outside of football like archaelogy/paleontology though that may come as a year or two journey or something he does after an analyst contract.

The concussion counter starts from our perspective in the NFL, but that doesnt mean they didnt get them in college, high school, pop warner and that their brains arent feeling the effects of hits that don’t cause concussions.

As much as I enjoy watching these guys as players, football is a terrible thing for people to do to themselves. I think Myles is a smart enough guy to know that. And I’d be willing to guess his threshold for stepping away is a little lower than others, much as is the rest of this generation of players.
 

godfather

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Never been this excited for the SB. I know the pundits wanted Rodgers vs Mahomes. QB vs QB is overrated media hype. This isn’t basketball. Mahomes and Rodgers don’t share the field.

49ers have been the most entertaining team to watch this season. That defense against Mahomes. I can’t wait to see that.
 

Pioneer10

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Mahomes is so good. He's like Luke just so good at all these little things like head fakes etc that you just don't expect from a second year player.
Hoping he wins so he doesn't have to hear the Marino comparisons going forward
 

Jordan

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Never been this excited for the SB. I know the pundits wanted Rodgers vs Mahomes. QB vs QB is overrated media hype. This isn’t basketball. Mahomes and Rodgers don’t share the field.

49ers have been the most entertaining team to watch this season. That defense against Mahomes. I can’t wait to see that.
Also, something interesting to note - I think San Francisco is demonstrating something about schemes that analytics have not caught up with.

Sure, analytics is probably on to something: on average, individual runningbacks do not matter. This fits with San Francisco. But, Shanahan ran the ball more times than any team other than the Ravens. Nonetheless, by success rate, they were only the 20th best rushing team, 7th for DVOA, and 5th best via PFF. The latter two are good, but when you watch them, it seems like the way they run makes a big difference.

But San Francisco runs the ball at an elite level on outside zone runs. They are eigh percent better than league average success on the left outside zone and three percent better on right outside zone. But, here is where I think some cool research could be conducted: the 49ers use the outside zone to draw safeties and linebackers into the outside, then they absolutely destroy teams up the middle.

They average 11.4 yards per attempt on 75% completion with passes to the middle of the field and a 134.8 QBR. If you include passes to all areas of the field beyond 15 yards as well as passes up the middle below fifteen yards, the 49ers are averaging 12.1 yards per attempt on 69% completion percentage with a 127 QBR. The only team better than San Francisco here is Kansas City.

So while I acknowledge that the Chiefs are a more effective passing team, in a vacuum, I think a large part of the closeness in their passing offense deals with Shanahan's elite scheming. He uses the outside zone to open up the middle of the field and deep passing. Moreover, because the 49ers have destroyed most teams with their outside zone rushing, I see no reason why it will be different with Kansas City.

Add in the 49ers' defense and I really think this game will be close. San Francisco will destroy Kansas City with outside zone rushing and I think that will open the passing game enough for the 49ers' to keep up the scoring pace. The 49ers' defense is also just better and that will play a big role.

-All stats from Warren Sharp's website
 

godfather

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Also, something interesting to note - I think San Francisco is demonstrating something about schemes that analytics have not caught up with.

Sure, analytics is probably on to something: on average, individual runningbacks do not matter. This fits with San Francisco. But, Shanahan ran the ball more times than any team other than the Ravens. Nonetheless, by success rate, they were only the 20th best rushing team, 7th for DVOA, and 5th best via PFF. The latter two are good, but when you watch them, it seems like the way they run makes a big difference.

But San Francisco runs the ball at an elite level on outside zone runs. They are eigh percent better than league average success on the left outside zone and three percent better on right outside zone. But, here is where I think some cool research could be conducted: the 49ers use the outside zone to draw safeties and linebackers into the outside, then they absolutely destroy teams up the middle.

They average 11.4 yards per attempt on 75% completion with passes to the middle of the field and a 134.8 QBR. If you include passes to all areas of the field beyond 15 yards as well as passes up the middle below fifteen yards, the 49ers are averaging 12.1 yards per attempt on 69% completion percentage with a 127 QBR. The only team better than San Francisco here is Kansas City.

So while I acknowledge that the Chiefs are a more effective passing team, in a vacuum, I think a large part of the closeness in their passing offense deals with Shanahan's elite scheming. He uses the outside zone to open up the middle of the field and deep passing. Moreover, because the 49ers have destroyed most teams with their outside zone rushing, I see no reason why it will be different with Kansas City.

Add in the 49ers' defense and I really think this game will be close. San Francisco will destroy Kansas City with outside zone rushing and I think that will open the passing game enough for the 49ers' to keep up the scoring pace. The 49ers' defense is also just better and that will play a big role.

-All stats from Warren Sharp's website

Shanahan is the best offensive coach in football. He put together one of the most explosive offenses in ever, in Atlanta, with Matt Ryan at QB. A good QB, but not Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, or Drew Brees caliber.

Atlanta went back to the basement the minute he left. His zone schemes are the best in the business.

I’m not really that sure KC wins. I think SF is the slightly better team. Both teams well coached. KC has the best player in football. So I’m siding with KC. But man it’s close..

SF is going to move the ball, and I think Garappolo is going to attack the middle. I think he’s going to play well. Better than Mahomes? No, but he doesn’t have to for them to win.

I’m the most curious how the 49ers defense looks against Mahomes. I think they will generate pressure on him.

But can they keep containment and avoid him rolling out? Because that’s the weakness of their defense. They play lots of zone and it’s easier to attack them when you roll out. The linebackers get caught up ball watching and lose sight of their man.

And no one is better at it than Mahomes. I’m the most curious how that plays out. If Mahomes can’t roll out, he might be in for a long night. That 49ers front should eat up the Chiefs line.
 

Walter White

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When I think about it, I feel like 49ers have an advantage in most areas . But I'm just going to trust in Pat.

I feel like Chiefs need to find a way to exploit the pass rush. If we can get Tyreek and Hardman in open space with quick slants or side outs, they can make stuff happen. Pat out of the pocket is where he makes a lot of big plays to Tyreek or Kelce when they break their routes. Not to mention Watkins and Robinson being open if they try to double.

Chiefs defense needs to find a way to keep getting it done. Chris Jones is banged up and outside of Tyrann and Clark, we have a weak personnel. Thornhill is obviously out and started for us all year. We need to find a way to slow down the run game and I'm worried about going against shifty backs. We got some big boys that can handle a power back. But our linebackers are just not good to put it lightly.

If Pat can pull this off, it will be a legendary postseason for him.
 
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Walter White

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Also what is weird is that the Chiefs are kinda weak in a lot of areas. Our offensive line is average and weak in the interior specifically. Running back is average. Our defense has steadily improved, but should be better with how much money we have invested in it. Corners aren't great but have their moments. Linebackers aren't good. Don't have a great pass rush but it's okay. We have D Line depth but it's not suited for the run.

It truly is an elite QB and receiving corp that has carried us. Even if we had a better running back like Hunt, I'd feel a bit better. Once again, Damien Williams can have his moments. But we need him to step up big. Especially in the pass game if they are gonna rush.

But we haven't seen a defense like theirs. They haven't seen an offense like ours. It really is an interesting match up.
 

godfather

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Also what is weird is that the Chiefs are kinda weak in a lot of areas. Our offensive line is average and weak in the interior specifically. Running back is average. Our defense has steadily improved, but should be better with how much money we have invested in it. Corners aren't great but have their moments. Linebackers aren't good. Don't have a great pass rush but it's okay. We have D Line depth but it's not suited for the run.

It truly is an elite QB and receiving corp that has carried us. Even if we had a better running back like Hunt, I'd feel a bit better. Once again, Damien Williams can have his moments. But we need him to step up big. Especially in the pass game if they are gonna rush.

But we haven't seen a defense like theirs. They haven't seen an offense like ours. It really is an interesting match up.


This does feel like 2007 a bit. An explosive Patriot offense going against a nasty front.

Giants just blew up the Pats line, and there was nothing Brady could do. Or when the Seattle defense basically shut down Peytons record breaking offense.

Seattle’s defense was better than the 49ers though. But a shaky line going against a hellacious front like the 49ers is a concern. Even for a mobile QB like Mahomes. Him being mobile does help though. Brady and Manning aren’t so they were easy pickens If their line gets destroyed without blitzing them.
 

Dr. Claw

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Andy Reid is, without a doubt, the most important football mind in my lifetime. His offensive strategies transformed football. I’m happy for him and rooting for this team to win it all.

As an Eagle fan... who had his issues with Andy (I used to compare Mike Brown to him when he coached the Cavs), I am ECSTATIC that he is going back to the Super Bowl. He really deserves this moment, and I hope he wins his first as a head coach (would have been #2 if not for Dee freakin' Ford.... and they would have SMOKED the Rams, unlike that snooze fest coronation for Boody).
 

godfather

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Andy doesn’t deserve the flack of not winning the big game. He went to how many straight NFC championship games? Let’s not pretend McNabb is an all-time great. He was a good QB, not a great one.

He’s never had a true franchise QB. He’s had one for just two seasons. He was a Tom Brady drive away from winning the SB last year (they would have beat the Rams). And he’s in the SB this year.

There’s deficiencies in Andy’s coaching. Still he’s been a great one. And I think clearly belongs in the HOF, even if he doesn’t win a SB.

Andy will get all the blame if they lose though. And I don’t think that’s fair.
 

Randolphkeys

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Sure, analytics is probably on to something: on average, individual runningbacks do not matter. This fits with San Francisco. But, Shanahan ran the ball more times than any team other than the Ravens. Nonetheless, by success rate, they were only the 20th best rushing team, 7th for DVOA, and 5th best via PFF. The latter two are good, but when you watch them, it seems like the way they run makes a big difference.

So ummmm... I think the Niners prove the opposite is true.

They invested heavily at running back compared to other teams. McKinnon made 5.7 million and it is set to go up in 2020, Juszcyk is the highest paid fullback by far at 5.8 going up to 6.7 next year, Coleman signed for 3.5 but it will go up to 4.9, Mostert made 1.9 and it will go up to 3.2 next year. Brieda is on a non-drafted rookie deal, and they will likely cut McKinnon in order to pay him.

What I see their front office doing is investing heavily at running back. If you want to make the argument Jusszcyk is more of a move tight end than a running back I can be persuaded, but they also have the best blocking tight end by a mile to pair with him.

They really just invested in running the damn football.
 

Jordan

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So ummmm... I think the Niners prove the opposite is true.

They invested heavily at running back compared to other teams. McKinnon made 5.7 million and it is set to go up in 2020, Juszcyk is the highest paid fullback by far at 5.8 going up to 6.7 next year, Coleman signed for 3.5 but it will go up to 4.9, Mostert made 1.9 and it will go up to 3.2 next year. Brieda is on a non-drafted rookie deal, and they will likely cut McKinnon in order to pay him.

What I see their front office doing is investing heavily at running back. If you want to make the argument Jusszcyk is more of a move tight end than a running back I can be persuaded, but they also have the best blocking tight end by a mile to pair with him.

They really just invested in running the damn football.
If I’m reading you correctly then I think we agree... my point is that the 49ers have proven analytics has a long way to go.
 
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So ummmm... I think the Niners prove the opposite is true.

They invested heavily at running back compared to other teams. McKinnon made 5.7 million and it is set to go up in 2020, Juszcyk is the highest paid fullback by far at 5.8 going up to 6.7 next year, Coleman signed for 3.5 but it will go up to 4.9, Mostert made 1.9 and it will go up to 3.2 next year. Brieda is on a non-drafted rookie deal, and they will likely cut McKinnon in order to pay him.

What I see their front office doing is investing heavily at running back. If you want to make the argument Jusszcyk is more of a move tight end than a running back I can be persuaded, but they also have the best blocking tight end by a mile to pair with him.

They really just invested in running the damn football.

Agree, and as I've said, you replace Chubb with a JAG and the Browns probably win 3-4 games this past season. Likewise, MJD likely kept the Jags out of 0-16 in some of his prime years.
 

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