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2019 NFL Regular Season Thread

BlessEm

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Dude the point with Newton is that he is broken at the ripe old age of 30, it has nothing to do with his relatively healthy career to that point.

We just aren’t going to agree on This so I’m just going to drop it.
Then I'm confused, you used Cam as an example and then follow up with how hes had a healthy career as a runner, and how hes broken at 30 because of the wear and tear yet his most recent and significant injury came from getting sacked in the pocket.
 

BlessEm

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have you ever watched russell Wilson play? Serious question, because to compare his style of QB to Lamar's is fucking ridiculous. Lamar is basically a RB that can very awkwardly heave the ball in a general directly. Russel Wilson is an extremely accurate QB that picks and chooses when to run the ball.

Here is a stat for you Russel Wilson has rushed more than 100 times in a season twice 2014 and 2015. In 2014 he rushed for 118 times, and in 2015 he rushed 103. Compare that to Lamar Jackson who in half a season has rushed 99 times. Jackson is currently on pace to have a career 350 rushes by the end of his 2nd season. Wilson was into his 4th season before he hit that many.

Lets look at Cam Netwon. Cam averages 115 rushes a year, and never over 140. Once again Jackson is on pace for 200 this year, after 150 last year. The rate at which Jackson is rushing hasnt happened in the NFL in decades. So while maybe Jackson is going to go on to be the first long term successful true dual QB capable of carrying a team on the ground and through the air, but the odds seem unlikely.
Now I haven't watched Rusell play? Come on. Was I comparing them as a passer? No, I pointed out one of the most durable qbs in the nfl has damn near 1000 rushing attempts at being only 5'11. How Cam, another Dual threat qb, an example that I didn't bring up, has had a healthy career with his worst injury being from sackdd in the pocket...No one disagrees that Lamar is going to have more attempts, did you not see how it's literally proven that the odds of getting hurt in the pocket are literally identical to a qb getting hurt on a designed run? Or you miss that?
 

JDailey23

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Cam was broken last year. Since the SB run he’s been very mediocre. He isn’t the same guy he was when he was 25/26. His shoulder is shot, feet and knees are gone. Maybe the entire year being off will help him get back to what he was for a season or two, but I doubt it.
 

bob2the2nd

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Now I haven't watched Rusell play? Come on. Was I comparing them as a passer? No, I pointed out one of the most durable qbs in the nfl has damn near 1000 rushing attempts at being only 5'11. How Cam, another Dual threat qb, an example that I didn't bring up, has had a healthy career with his worst injury being from sackdd in the pocket...No one disagrees that Lamar is going to have more attempts, did you not see how it's literally proven that the odds of getting hurt in the pocket are literally identical to a qb getting hurt on a designed run? Or you miss that?
the whole point is that it is completely and totally unsustainable for Jackson to continue to rush 200 times a year and maintain it for a prolonged period of time.

Also the problem with your stat is not all of his rushes are designed rushes.

Lets boil it down this way. Cam newton has been hit 1230 times in his career (8+ years) either from sacks, QB hits, or being tackled while rushing the ball. Just doing some math Cam Newton was tackled on ~85% of his rushes.

Lamar Jackson at 1.5 years has been sacked or hit 47 times, plus right now he has another 250 rushes. Lets assume he is better at avoiding tackles over Cam and only gets tackled 80% of his rushes (200 tackles). Meaning....

Since Week 9 of last season when Jackson became the ravens starter (16 regular season games+1 playoff game) he has been hit around 235 times either through sacks, hits, or being tackled. (20% of Newtons career hits).

By the end of the season (his 2nd year) Jackson is on pace to get hit close to 360 times (28% of newton)

At this rate by the time Jackson finishes his rookie contract he will have been hit over 1050 times (85% of Newton).

Cam Newton is physically breaking down after 1230 hits and is both bigger and taller than Jackson. So no i dont find what Jackson is doing sustainable for a long term career especially as he is projected to take more hits after 5.5 years than Newton has had in 8.
 

SuperSurge

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@bob2the2nd I agree with your overall premise that Jackson's style probably won't last years and years. Chances are he sustains a lower body injury that affects his agility and/or ability to run.

However, I would also say Cam Newton is not the best comparison. Time after time, Cam Newton fully took on tacklers, lowering his head and shoulders attempting to run them over. Wilson is also not a great comp because he picks and chooses when to run, and almost NEVER takes a hit when he does.

From the small sample size I've seen, Jackson is sort of a blend of both. He doesn't take on tacklers like Cam, but isn't as choosy as Wilson.
 

Jack Brickman

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have you ever watched russell Wilson play? Serious question, because to compare his style of QB to Lamar's is fucking ridiculous. Lamar is basically a RB that can very awkwardly heave the ball in a general directly. Russel Wilson is an extremely accurate QB that picks and chooses when to run the ball.

Here is a stat for you Russel Wilson has rushed more than 100 times in a season twice 2014 and 2015. In 2014 he rushed for 118 times, and in 2015 he rushed 103. Compare that to Lamar Jackson who in half a season has rushed 99 times. Jackson is currently on pace to have a career 350 rushes by the end of his 2nd season. Wilson was into his 4th season before he hit that many. Furthermore since 2015 Wilson has only rushed more than 72 times in a season once. Meaning he has cut back dramatically since 2015.

Lets look at Cam Netwon. Cam averages 115 rushes a year, and never over 140. Once again Jackson is on pace for 200 this year, after 150 last year. The rate at which Jackson is rushing hasnt happened in the NFL in decades. So while maybe Jackson is going to go on to be the first long term successful true dual QB capable of carrying a team on the ground and through the air, but the odds seem unlikely.
Yeah, Wilson is just a terrible comp for Jackson because Wilson is literally one of the best passers in the league. He's highly accurate and mostly utilizes his mobility to extend plays when his offensive line breaks down. I think Wilson will have a long career because he's so elite at throwing the football in a way Jackson and Cam are not (at least not yet for Jackson). If you take away Cam's athleticism, I don't think he's a good enough passer to continue playing at a high level like he has in the past. If you take away Jackson's athleticism, he's probably not beating you with his arm alone.

Of course, it could still be years and years before Jackson takes enough hits to start wearing on him. Then again, he could shred his knee this weekend and never be the same, RGIII style. The point being that he'll absolutely need to improve as a passer if he wants to be a viable long-term NFL player, because eventually those hits are going to add up.
 

6.19.2016

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SIAP, but as long as we're debating Lamar...


As noted here earlier, I think this is a case where Belicheat might not have been showing his full hand this past Sunday, and he may already have more Charger-style formations drawn up for the playoffs.
 

godfather

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Russell Wilson was never just a runner. He came into the NFL as a passer, and had the right mechanics to throw the football. He completed 72% of his passes at Wisconsin. He had the accuracy and arm strength you want in a QB.

He dropped so bad, because of his height. As we've seen, height really doesn't matter all that much, unless you're 5'6 or something.

There's nothing wrong being fast as a QB, and of course its an advantage to be able to run and move in the pocket. But there's never been a QB that's came into the league, can't throw, but can run, and has been a success long-term. It never works.

Steve Young earlier in his career, before he went to the 49ers, was pretty much a runner. And learned, if he was going to make it in this league, he's got to be able to throw the football. You either adjust, or die.

I don't see any comparisons at all between Russell and Lamar. Russell was miles better as a passer than Lamar coming into the NFL.

Lamar did improve his throwing mechanics. He HAS improved as a passer. Hence why he's been better this year. His style from last year was never going to sustain.

But, it's a very large jump to put him in the category of Russell Wilson. Who is the best QB in the league right now.

And was a born great thrower since the day he stepped into the league.
 

Rich

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Harbaugh is not a better coach than Belichick. Are you implying Harbaugh can out coach Belichick? Because that's ridiculous.

The success the Ravens had, was led by future HOFs, plural, and an elite defense that can get after Brady, and be physical against the Pats offense. The Ravens defense in the past matched up extremely well against the Pats offense, hence the success they had. The last time the Ravens beat the Pats (before tonight), they had Ray Lewis on the field. They hadn't beaten them since.

Teams have changed way too much since they've last met, to go on what happen in the past. When both teams are clearly different at this point.

I really don't take that much out of tonight's loss. Ravens won, fine. It's one game. Patriots were due to lose one.

They're at home, and this is the first time Belichick ever went against Lamar Jackson. There's no real preparation against him, until you see him.

He's a unique QB. If they meet again, it will be a much different story. They'll likely be in Foxborough, where they remain unbeaten for the last few seasons? Total different place to play these guys. And Belichick will erase the things he did well, and make him counter.

Pats play uncharacteristically sloppy tonight. They're too disciplined and well coached to expect that to continue.

I didn't once come across tonight the Ravens are actually better. The Pats were off tonight, Ravens took advantage and won.
You're making too much out of my line.

For years now I've joked with a buddy when he asks me if I think the Steelers can win it all I respond "only if the Ravens make the playoffs too."

Because, for w/e reason, the Ravens have shown an ability, historically, to beat the Patriots whereas the Steelers have not. That's all.
 

Rich

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On the Lamar thing: I don't blame the Ravens for doing it. Hey, if you can win a superbowl or two doing it, then why the hell not? And if Lamar can only do it for 7-9 years? Oh well. That's a good run.

It'll just be REALLY interesting what they do when it's time for a new contract. Do they risk paying him like a top tier QB as opposed to a top tier RB knowing full well he might not last nearly as long.

Different note: I TRULY feel bad for Antonio Brown as every time he opens his mouth it's becoming more and more clear SOMETHING has happened to him. Whether it's CTE or some other disorder, he's simply not right.
 

godfather

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You're making too much out of my line.

For years now I've joked with a buddy when he asks me if I think the Steelers can win it all I respond "only if the Ravens make the playoffs too."

Because, for w/e reason, the Ravens have shown an ability, historically, to beat the Patriots whereas the Steelers have not. That's all.
That's because they matched up extremely well against the Pats. Match ups play a big deal in these things.

They only beat the Pats two times in the post-season. Pats have beaten them three times. So its not like they've own the Pats or something.

One year, Brady was coming of an ACL and they were missing Welker. And then the year they went to the SB.

The teams are very different. The only same component is that Tom Brady is still the QB, Belichick and Harbaugh.

The Steelers have beaten the Pats in the regular season, they just have never beaten them at home or in the post-season.

Ravens did it twice. I think the first year time the Pats really weren't very good that season. That was one of their worst years under the Belichick and Brady era.

Hell, the Jets beat the Patriots at home in the post-season, in a season where they were very good and Brady was the MVP of the league.

Physical defenses have matched up well against the Pats. It's why the Giants have beat them twice in the SB.

Pop Tom in the mouth, slow the offense down, make it an ugly match. You can beat them. Few teams were built to do that. The Ravens were built as great as anyone at doing, hence their success.
 

godfather

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Not implying the Ravens can't beat the Pats in the post-season FWIW. I'm just pointing out the teams are so different compared to what they were then. So the comparisons don't mesh anymore.

The Pats are very different themselves. Back then, they were led by Tom Brady and the offense. The Patriots were very offensive oriented, and were a bend not break type of defense. Every thing started with slowing down Tom Brady, as simple as that. You slow him down, you have a chance. You don't, you'll get ass fucked.

The Pats aren't that type of team at all anymore. Brady is 42. Of course he's still a large factor, but I don't know if he's the primary factor/driving force anymore. They can win without him being a HOF great.

The offense isn't remotely what it once was. And that's not really how they win now. They're now led by a top caliber defense. And the Pats offense is more 'hold the fort' type than going out and scoring 40 plus points on you.

The Ravens are no longer that physical, dominant, smash you in the mouth defense. I think their defense is still pretty good, but not remotely what it was when the teams last met.

They've become the Lamar Jackson Ravens.

If you can move the ball on the Pats defense, and score, you have a great chance beating them. That used to not be the case as much, because the Pats offense can go blow to blow with anyone. They don't have that caliber of an offense anymore.

Two different teams. The only thing the same is the name. That's it.
 

godfather

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I remember everyone ripping on the Raiders for trading Mack and Cooper. Fast forward two seasons later, they got a better record than the Bears.

I mean, I didn't think those trades were that bad. Mack is great, but wanted a ridiculous contract. Cooper was not performing that well with Oakland.

Too soon to say how their picks will turn out. But Jacobs looks good. Ferrell hasn't done that much yet. And Abraham has been injured.
 

King Stannis

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I remember everyone ripping on the Raiders for trading Mack and Cooper. Fast forward two seasons later, they got a better record than the Bears.

I mean, I didn't think those trades were that bad. Mack is great, but wanted a ridiculous contract. Cooper was not performing that well with Oakland.

Too soon to say how their picks will turn out. But Jacobs looks good. Ferrell hasn't done that much yet. And Abraham has been injured.
I see your point and it is very valid.

But I am still thinking the Raiders are only average.

This game did not impress me. The Chargers just looked all fucked up.

Chargers regressing hard this year. They have not insignificant talent on that squad. Allen is a great WR, good TE, good back.

Maybe Rivers is just regressing, I don't know. He is an INT machine lately.
 

godfather

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I see your point and it is very valid.

But I am still thinking the Raiders are only average.

This game did not impress me. The Chargers just looked all fucked up.

Chargers regressing hard this year. They have not insignificant talent on that squad. Allen is a great WR, good TE, good back.

Maybe Rivers is just regressing, I don't know. He is an INT machine lately.
Not suggesting they're that good by any means, just these trades didn't cripple them like everyone was acting like.

And they still have another pick coming in. They get the Bears first round pick this year, and well, they're not good. That pick is going to be pretty high value. Bears are currently dead last in their division, and they just suck.

You never build around one player in football unless its the QB. Letting him go was the correct decision.

They sucked with these players. Mack is great, but wanted a ridiculous contract. Obviously they'll be judged more depending on what they do with these picks, just like any trade. But the value was definitely worth it.

I'll take two first round picks, a second round pick, and a third pick every day of the fuckin' week, instead of over paying a defensive end while still being a bad team with that player. One player in football doesn't make that big of a difference, outside the QB.

They got an over haul for one guy.

Belichick does stuff like this all the time and gets praised for it. Raiders does it, and everyone laughs at them because they're the Raiders. Even though it was the correct decision.



 

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