2019 Regular Season Predictions

[Cavatt]

I don't agree on the big tank job. They just have to have one of the ten worst records, which means stay under 37 wins if last year is any indication. I dont see this as a 37-win team even in the best case scenario. Beilein is beside himself at how bad the Cavs have looked in the preseason. He’s not going to be receptive to being told that healthy players should be benched so we lose on purpose. He would never have taken this job if he was told in the interview that the Cavs will be tanking this year.

Yeah 37 really seems out of the question. I would say 30 wins is the absolute ceiling if everything goes right.

The improvement to that level is going to have to be on defense because I think this team could run a respectable offense. No way they jump from historically bad to top 10 defense in one year. I do hope they are not as completely hopeless on D this year.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Yeah 37 really seems out of the question. I would say 30 wins is the absolute ceiling if everything goes right.

The improvement to that level is going to have to be on defense because I think this team could run a respectable offense. No way they jump from historically bad to top 10 defense in one year. I do hope they are not as completely hopeless on D this year.

30 wins the absolute ceiling? I’m not so sure. Last year's Cavaliers team changed a lot over the course of the season. Rodney Hood played over 1,200 minutes and started 45 games, but he wasn’t around at the end. Same for Alec Burks, who played nearly 1,000 minutes. George Hill played 344 minutes, and Kyle Korver 251. The Cavs' record with those guys playing significant roles has no bearing on this season.

I draw a line when Kevin Love returned. He played more than 20 minutes for the first time on Feb. 21 against Phoenix. Going into that game the Cavs were 12-46. The rest of the way they went 7-17, so their winning percentage improved from 20.7% to 29.2% with a healthy Kevin Love, even though he was playing 28-30 minutes and taking some games off. He played 11 of 15 games in March. That 7-17 record included wins over Toronto, Milwaukee and Memphis.

If the Cavs win 29.2% in 2019-20 they’ll win 24 games. You could make an argument that if the Cavs had no draft picks and made no roster moves whatsover they could win 24 games this year if Love can play 65 games or so.

But if you take the team that went 7-17 over the last 30% of the season, subtract Nwaba, Chriss, Stauskas, and Adel while adding Garland, Windler, Porter, and Henson how many wins do you add or subtract from 24? I would argue that we got little from Nwaba and almost nothing from the other three. We don't know how good our three rookies will be and how much Henson will play, but I think the team is definitely improved and I'm looking for 30 wins.

But if they trade TT, Henson, and Clarkson in mid-season like they did with Hood, Korver, Burks, and Hill last year then we're probably looking at something like 24 wins.

 

[Cavatt]

30 wins the absolute ceiling? I’m not so sure. Last year's Cavaliers team changed a lot over the course of the season. Rodney Hood played over 1,200 minutes and started 45 games, but he wasn’t around at the end. Same for Alec Burks, who played nearly 1,000 minutes. George Hill played 344 minutes, and Kyle Korver 251. The Cavs' record with those guys playing significant roles has no bearing on this season.

I draw a line when Kevin Love returned. He played more than 20 minutes for the first time on Feb. 21 against Phoenix. Going into that game the Cavs were 12-46. The rest of the way they went 7-17, so their winning percentage improved from 20.7% to 29.2% with a healthy Kevin Love, even though he was playing 28-30 minutes and taking some games off. He played 11 of 15 games in March. That 7-17 record included wins over Toronto, Milwaukee and Memphis.

If the Cavs win 29.2% in 2019-20 they’ll win 24 games. You could make an argument that if the Cavs had no draft picks and made no roster moves whatsover they could win 24 games this year if Love can play 65 games or so.

But if you take the team that went 7-17 over the last 30% of the season, subtract Nwaba, Chriss, Stauskas, and Adel while adding Garland, Windler, Porter, and Henson how many wins do you add or subtract from 24? I would argue that we got little from Nwaba and almost nothing from the other three. We don't know how good our three rookies will be and how much Henson will play, but I think the team is definitely improved and I'm looking for 30 wins.

I hope you are right. I think boneheaded rookies are not going to contribute much. I think that improvement will have to fall on Cedi and Sexton more than the others. Maybe if Windler is as good as I think he can play from day one as a sort of Courtney Lee in Orlando. Rookie just don't make an impact often, even if they are good.

To be fair, Love wasn't great last year. He was out of shape from all the time off. If he can really cut it up, I would be excited. 11 game win total jumps are pretty rare and are usually a result of a superstar leap and not a bottom dweller clawing it's way from under the pack.

 

[AllforOne]

I don't agree on the big tank job. They just have to have one of the ten worst records, which means stay under 37 wins if last year is any indication. I dont see this as a 37-win team even in the best case scenario. Beilein is beside himself at how bad the Cavs have looked in the preseason. He’s not going to be receptive to being told that healthy players should be benched so we lose on purpose. He would never have taken this job if he was told in the interview that the Cavs will be tanking this year.

Well, he's done it already. Or do you really think that Garland couldn't have gone in the Summer League?

It's not Beilein's job to determine who is available and who isn't. That leads to short-term thinking that may be at odds with bigger long-term objectives. It's his job to make the best he can from who he has available, as dictated from above.

Also, the goal here isn't to "have one of the ten worst records." The Cavs will do that all on their own, even if they don't milk minor injuries. The sky has a better chance of falling than the Cavs do of finishing outside the bottom ten this season.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I found a couple of Terry Pluto quotes after the 81st game last year.

"The Cavs enter tomorrow’s matchup with an NBA-high 32 different starting lineups - before the last game of the year. The Cavs used 27 players this season.

Love came back from foot surgery in February. In games where he played at least 15 minutes from that point to the end of the season the Cavs were 7-9."

One thing that should help is more continuity. 32 starting lineups in 82 games? 27 players? That's crazy. I'm thinking that if we can get a consistent lineup of TT, Love, Henson, Nance, Windler and Cedi across the front row and Sexton, Clarkson, Garland, and Porter in the back court and basically go with 10 players for 82 games it will help a lot. Last year was a cluster between the trades and injuries.

If the Cavs go 7-9 in games Love plays and he plays 70 games and we lose the other 12, we'd end up with 30 wins.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Also...

"The Cavs lost 275 games due to injury this year, which Altman said was the third-most in the NBA." - Joe Vardon

The excessive number of injuries was a big factor in the 19-63 record. Kevin Love was the most impactful injury, but Tristan Thompson missed 39 games - nearly half the season.

This year’s team is a lot younger and therefore there should be fewer injuries which means more continuity and less shuffling of players and changing the starting lineup every other game.

 

[ice cream man]

What are the chances Love plays more than 50 games...

 

[inliner311]

What are the chances Love plays more than 50 games...

I think the only way he plays 50+ games this year is if we get full control back of our pick from the pelicans or he gets traded.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

What are the chances Love plays more than 50 games...

The guy I'm as concerned about is Henson. Here's a quote from Beilein:

"[John] Henson’s very different from the other bigs. When we watched him playing in pickup, he changes a lot of things for us. We need that very badly. They can draw up all kinds of great action and one shot block just deflates them, the offense. He’s going to bring that to us. We have to get him healthy and all year we try to put weight on him, little by little, pound by pound so that he can withstand an NBA season."

There's a good column on Henson from Chris Fedor today.

John Henson continues to tease Cleveland Cavaliers with potential, dampen hopes with injuries

“There were several times I said he could be a difference-maker,” Beilein said recently.

www.cleveland.com

“It looked like the Cavs had the coveted floor-spacing big who wouldn’t force them to make concessions on defense. There’s no one else like him on the roster.”

“There were several times I said, ‘He could be a difference-maker,’” Beilein explained recently.

Henson is 29 so I doubt they can put weight on him. He is what he is at this point. But he averaged 65 games a year his first six years in the league until the wrist injury knocked him out last year. I'd be happy if he could play 65-70 games this year. He wasn't all that fragile until last season when he broke his wrist dunking.

 

[rcj47]

I'm terrible at predictions but I choose around 35 games and that is if everyone stays relatively healthy and and Love isn't traded.

I think the mess we've seen in the preseason is partly young one and done rookies and injuries yet again causing havoc with any of these guys getting used to playing with each other. But the biggest issue to me is the learning needed on both offense and defense with how the new coaching staff wants them to play.

Everything is new with little time to get guys up to speed and just like anything else in life, it takes a lot of repetition to get good at something. The other issues just exacerbate this learning process. So I expect them to have struggles in the early part of the season but steadily improve as the year goes on. Hopefully many players' health improves with time also.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I predict:

Kevin Love will be rumored to be traded until the deadline and still stay with the team. The trade rumors will not stop when the deadline passes, big markets will continue to talk about trading beads and trinkets for his services in the off-season.

Garland will shoot under 42% from the field at Christmas and the boo birds will get on him. He will raise his shooting percentage to about 44% by the end of the season. He will struggle finishing inside 15 feet, but his three ball and step back will draw Oohs and Aaahs. He will establish himself as the face of the franchise.

Sexton will be the 6th man after the trade deadline. If you loved Ricky Davis, you will love Collin Sexton.

The team will put young players on the injured list for small injuries as well as cold streaks, pretending it's some injury. After November 1st, veterans will get long stretches to prove they have trade value. It all ends with the Cavs in the bottom three in the NBA with the best small forward in college basketball as a draft target.

 

[PIP]

I think they have a legit shot to win 11 games.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm terrible at predictions but I choose around 35 games and that is if everyone stays relatively healthy and and Love isn't traded.

I think the mess we've seen in the preseason is partly young one and done rookies and injuries yet again causing havoc with any of these guys getting used to playing with each other. But the biggest issue to me is the learning needed on both offense and defense with how the new coaching staff wants them to play.

Everything is new with little time to get guys up to speed and just like anything else in life, it takes a lot of repetition to get good at something. The other issues just exacerbate this learning process. So I expect them to have struggles in the early part of the season but steadily improve as the year goes on. Hopefully many players' health improves with time also.

35 wins is really aggressive. Here are the keys from my POV:

1. How fast can Garland and Porter get up to speed? As Beilein pointed out, neither played much in college and neither played summer ball. Garland has played five college games while Porter has played 21. We saw a significant improvement from Sexton in the second half of last season. I'm hoping for the same thing this year from Garland and Porter.

2. Love being able to play 32 minutes for 60-70 games.

3. Who gets traded? Last year it was Hood, Burks, Korver, and Hill. This year it could be TT, Clarkson, Henson, Delly or even Love. It's hard to believe none of them will be dealt. I can't see why we would keep TT, Clarkson, or Henson. TT has a Baby Mama in L.A., right? I can't see him staying here even for market value. Do we keep him and let him walk for the cap savings or trade him in-season for picks or a Nance/Clarkson type package?

4. Can we find a small forward? Cedi looked awful against Boston, although he'll be better if we can push the pace more. Clarkson? I don't think so. Windler? He might be better than Cedi by the end of the season.

5. Can Beilein find the right combinations and the right systems on offense and defense to maximize the talent?

 

[CleveRocks]

35 wins is really aggressive. Here are the keys from my POV:

1. How fast can Garland and Porter get up to speed? As Beilein pointed out, neither played much in college and neither played summer ball. Garland has played five college games while Porter has played 21. We saw a significant improvement from Sexton in the second half of last season. I'm hoping for the same thing this year from Garland and Porter.

2. Love being able to play 32 minutes for 60-70 games.

3. Who gets traded? Last year it was Hood, Burks, Korver, and Hill. This year it could be TT, Clarkson, Henson, Delly or even Love. It's hard to believe none of them will be dealt. I can't see why we would keep TT, Clarkson, or Henson. TT has a Baby Mama in L.A., right? I can't see him staying here even for market value. Do we keep him and let him walk for the cap savings or trade him in-season for picks or a Nance/Clarkson type package?

4. Can we find a small forward? Cedi looked awful against Boston, although he'll be better if we can push the pace more. Clarkson? I don't think so. Windler? He might be better than Cedi by the end of the season.

5. Can Beilein find the right combinations and the right systems on offense and defense to maximize the talent?

Double down on point number 3.. we will trade any of TT, Clarkson, Love and Henson if we get our ask, and these are very likely our top four nba ready players..

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

30 wins the absolute ceiling? I’m not so sure. Last year's Cavaliers team changed a lot over the course of the season. Rodney Hood played over 1,200 minutes and started 45 games, but he wasn’t around at the end. Same for Alec Burks, who played nearly 1,000 minutes. George Hill played 344 minutes, and Kyle Korver 251. The Cavs' record with those guys playing significant roles has no bearing on this season.

I draw a line when Kevin Love returned. He played more than 20 minutes for the first time on Feb. 21 against Phoenix. Going into that game the Cavs were 12-46. The rest of the way they went 7-17, so their winning percentage improved from 20.7% to 29.2% with a healthy Kevin Love, even though he was playing 28-30 minutes and taking some games off. He played 11 of 15 games in March. That 7-17 record included wins over Toronto, Milwaukee and Memphis.

If the Cavs win 29.2% in 2019-20 they’ll win 24 games. You could make an argument that if the Cavs had no draft picks and made no roster moves whatsover they could win 24 games this year if Love can play 65 games or so.

But if you take the team that went 7-17 over the last 30% of the season, subtract Nwaba, Chriss, Stauskas, and Adel while adding Garland, Windler, Porter, and Henson how many wins do you add or subtract from 24? I would argue that we got little from Nwaba and almost nothing from the other three. We don't know how good our three rookies will be and how much Henson will play, but I think the team is definitely improved and I'm looking for 30 wins.

But if they trade TT, Henson, and Clarkson in mid-season like they did with Hood, Korver, Burks, and Hill last year then we're probably looking at something like 24 wins.

The Cavs allowed 114 points a game last year. I think they will be worse this year unless they try to slow down the game then the 104 they scored per night will drop too. A 10 point scoring difference is likely going to continue and that is a formula for less than 25 wins.

I do expect they will move vets in deals because rebuilding teams always do that. Fans need to be happy with a surprise few wins against playoff level teams and hopefully glimpses of a future in Garland, Porter and Windler.