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2019 Regular Season Predictions

How Many Wins?

  • Less than 18

  • 18-21

  • 22-25

  • 26-29

  • 30-33

  • 34-38

  • More than 38


Results are only viewable after voting.

inliner311

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I'm more interested in the combinations Beilein utilizes after everyone is healthy. For example, does Clarkson start off as a 3 and move back to a 2 once Windler is back? Does he play Sexton and Garland together or does he split them up and play one with Knight and another with Delly most of the time?

Does he play TT and Love at the 5 and 4 and then switch to Henson and Nance? Will Big Z be in the rotation at all? I think this will be a fluid situation that will be evolving as Beilein gradually figures out who plays well with who and vice versa. It might take 20 games or more before he settles on a starting lineup and substitution pattterns.

I'm not sure what he's going to do with all these bigs who can't create their own shot or hit from outside (TT, Nance, Henson, Z). If he posts them up they can't score and they clutter the lane for the guards. If he puts them on the perimeter their defenders will sag off and clog the paint. The only solution is pick-and-rolls.
My guess is Clarkson is only going to play SF so he can get minutes. I also don't think Windler gets into the rotation until some of the vets are traded.

If Beilein wants to player Windler or KPJ, he probably has to sit Delly until Knight or Clarkson is traded.

The rotation when everyone is healthy will be interesting. Hopefully Koby can clear some of the depth sooner than later so all the young guys can get into the rotation.
 

inliner311

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To add to that...it's not Nance's fault that he's played with Clarkson his entire career. Get Clarkson off this roster, and over time Nance can develop chemistry with our actual core guys instead. What's so hard about that?
This is one of the big reasons I wanted Clarkson off the team last year so Nance could get out of his comfort zone and develop better.
 

inliner311

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Nance made 33 of 98 three pointers last season. That's a 33.7% clip. There is literally nothing wrong with that out of a big man. If he's going to keep shooting 33%+, I hope he shoots more of them and opens up the floor for our young guards to go to work. Nance is a lost cause because he's shooting three pointers when he's well above league average for a big man at doing so? Crazy.
Nance does need to try to expand where he takes his 3 if he wants to up his attempts. If he is only willing to take 3s from a single spot on the floor and it's the only spot where he is even close to an average shooter, it does only so much for floor spacing.

I think his percentage and attempts are enough to be a stretch 5 in today's NBA which will just eventually just be a necessity of modern centers at some point but it's not enough to be a stretch 4 and a modern PF.
 

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JB said he wants the big men shooting more three pointers this season. Tristan Thompson has been taking threes in the preseason and practice in anticipation for him shooting them in the regular season. He's a terrible shooter. Is he a lost cause because he's going to be shooting three pointers this season?
No. It's Beilein who is the lost cause for wanting to pound square pegs into round holes. That's the exact opposite thing good NBA coaches do.
 

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No. It's Beilein who is the lost cause for wanting to pound square pegs into round holes. That's the exact opposite thing good NBA coaches do.
Oh I agree, I was just counterpointing the argument where he said Nance's ego is beyond the point of no return because he's shooting three pointers.

Tristan has no place taking a twelve foot jumper, let alone a corner three.
 

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No. It's Beilein who is the lost cause for wanting to pound square pegs into round holes. That's the exact opposite thing good NBA coaches do.
Didn't Budenholzer do the same thing last season with his bigs? Henson was able to shot 35% at 2.2 attempts for that short period he was healthy last season. There were reports that the Cavs thought he expanded his 3 pt shooting even more. I also thought Henson was a terrible shooter before last season. It also revived Brook Lopez's career.

If TT can actually shot the 3 ball during games that just ups his value. At worse its a failed experiment and the coaching staff cuts his 3 pt shots out of the offense. Even if TT is a failure, asking all the bigs to expand their 3 point game is a good thing, maybe Nance is able to play more PF or Henson is good enough with his 3 point shooting that it smooths out the rotation. It's where the NBA is trending and it's the type of offense we should be running for the young guys to grow in.
 
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cabs

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Alright first, you have no idea what Nance is actually thinking, so saying that he is a lost cause based on what you think he is thinking is asinine.

We didn't have a head coach last season. The whole roster went haywire with Clarkson ISO, Nance fast-breaks, our key leading veteran sitting out the entire season pretty much, and dealing with the post-LeBron baggage.

Nance made 33 of 98 three pointers last season. That's a 33.7% clip. There is literally nothing wrong with that out of a big man. If he's going to keep shooting 33%+, I hope he shoots more of them and opens up the floor for our young guards to go to work. Nance is a lost cause because he's shooting three pointers when he's well above league average for a big man at doing so? Crazy.

JB said he wants the big men shooting more three pointers this season. Tristan Thompson has been taking threes in the preseason and practice in anticipation for him shooting them in the regular season. He's a terrible shooter. Is he a lost cause because he's going to be shooting three pointers this season?

Playmaking big men are a commodity. Nikola Jokic is one of the best players in basketball. Anthony Davis is a great passer/dribbler for a big man. The Gasol brothers are great playmaking big men. Hell, K-Love is one of the better big guys at setting up his team in the league.

Should Nance quit bringing the ball up the floor so often? Yes.

Should Nance stop focusing on all aspects of playmaking altogether and completely stagnate the offense when he touches the ball? Absolutely not. Love and Nance are two great passers for big men, and having them out there with our two young guards and another guy like Osman who knows how to move the ball is going to do nothing but help the offense.

Not sure what Nance did to have himself so high on your shit-list, but nobody has ever come out and complained about him being a bad teammate, and to call him a crap player is just you either being horrifically biased against him for some reason or misinformed about his talent.
If you can sit here and say with a straight face you think Nance should be shooting 3's all the power to you.. Winslow shot 38% from 3 last year and I'm pretty sure Miami fans rather he doesnt shoot them.
Comparing Nances passing to Jokic is laughable. He force feeds Clarkson, avoids passing to younger players etc
You like him because of his Dad most likely, there is no other reason to.
Shit player who I really hope is moved on along with Clarkson.
I'll believe Tristan will shoot 3's this season when it happens, if that happens then maybe JB is the lost cause. Tristan knows his limitations, Nance does not that much was evident last season.
Nance should just be a rebound, dunk and defense guy... then he would be fine as a rotation player but imo we are long past him being that on this team
 

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When I say he would be a fine rotation player I would still prefer TT and Henson though*
TT is simply a better player and Henson provides shot blocking
 

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If you can sit here and say with a straight face you think Nance should be shooting 3's all the power to you.. Winslow shot 38% from 3 last year and I'm pretty sure Miami fans rather he doesnt shoot them.
Comparing Nances passing to Jokic is laughable. He force feeds Clarkson, avoids passing to younger players etc
You like him because of his Dad most likely, there is no other reason to.
Shit player who I really hope is moved on along with Clarkson.
I'll believe Tristan will shoot 3's this season when it happens, if that happens then maybe JB is the lost cause. Tristan knows his limitations, Nance does not that much was evident last season.
Nance should just be a rebound, dunk and defense guy... then he would be fine as a rotation player but imo we are long past him being that on this team
Alright, I'm going to leave it at this since you're starting to mince my words and assume shit to further your argument:

I'm way too young to have ever saw Nance Sr. play. Literally have zero personal bias towards Jr. from his dad.

If you can point out where exactly I compared Nance's passing ability to Jokic's, I'll concede my entire argument and declare you overlord of RCF. I said passing big men are at a premium, and it is more useful for your big man to be a capable playmaker than a potato on offense. Never once did I say Nance was in the same stratosphere as Jokic playmaking wise. Most point guards are worse playmakers than Jokic.

Analytically, Nance was easily our best player last season, and I flat out challenge you to prove me wrong on that. Love had a few better advanced metrics, but he played <25 games. Calling him a "shit player" is just a terrible take.

I agree that Clarkson needs shipped out of town, but of Nance's ten best five-man lineups last season, Clarkson was only present in three of them. He was most effective when he had Cedi Osman, Collin Sexton, Alec Burks, and Rodney Hood on the floor with him in different lineups.

When I say he would be a fine rotation player I would still prefer TT and Henson though*
TT is simply a better player and Henson provides shot blocking
Tristan Thompson 2018-2019: 18.4 PER, 2.6 WS, 0.7 VORP, 0.3 BPM, 116 DRtg, 117 ORtg, 20.3 TRB%, 11.2 AST%, 1.2 BLK%, 1.2 STL%
Larry Nance Jr. 2018-2019: 18.6 PER, 4.9 WS, 2.7 VORP, 4.0 BPM, 112 DRtg, 120 ORtg, 17.1 TRB%, 17.8 AST%, 1.9 BLK%, 2.8 STL%

Tristan is literally better than Nance at rebounding. That's it. The Cavaliers had a bigger offensive and defensive impact with Nance last season. Tristan got blown away in a lot of advanced metrics and he even had a higher usage rate (17.7 vs. 15.5). If Nance is a "shit player", then Thompson is runny diarrhea.

A few years ago, Tristan was a better player. It's simply just not true anymore.

You can put together a combination of John Henson's career bests, and they're relatively equal to the entirety of Larry Nance just last season. Henson is a better shot blocker though, for sure. He and Nance should both see significant minutes before Thompson.




You haven't been around here that long, I get that, and I'm not trying to be combative, but when you debate around here by spewing out bullshit thoughts that you present as facts and by throwing words into other people's mouths in a desperate attempt to further your point, don't expect people to be all flowery in their responses to you.
 

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Alright, I'm going to leave it at this since you're starting to mince my words and assume shit to further your argument:

I'm way too young to have ever saw Nance Sr. play. Literally have zero personal bias towards Jr. from his dad.

If you can point out where exactly I compared Nance's passing ability to Jokic's, I'll concede my entire argument and declare you overlord of RCF. I said passing big men are at a premium, and it is more useful for your big man to be a capable playmaker than a potato on offense. Never once did I say Nance was in the same stratosphere as Jokic playmaking wise. Most point guards are worse playmakers than Jokic.

Analytically, Nance was easily our best player last season, and I flat out challenge you to prove me wrong on that. Love had a few better advanced metrics, but he played <25 games. Calling him a "shit player" is just a terrible take.

I agree that Clarkson needs shipped out of town, but of Nance's ten best five-man lineups last season, Clarkson was only present in three of them. He was most effective when he had Cedi Osman, Collin Sexton, Alec Burks, and Rodney Hood on the floor with him in different lineups.



Tristan Thompson 2018-2019: 18.4 PER, 2.6 WS, 0.7 VORP, 0.3 BPM, 116 DRtg, 117 ORtg, 20.3 TRB%, 11.2 AST%, 1.2 BLK%, 1.2 STL%
Larry Nance Jr. 2018-2019: 18.6 PER, 4.9 WS, 2.7 VORP, 4.0 BPM, 112 DRtg, 120 ORtg, 17.1 TRB%, 17.8 AST%, 1.9 BLK%, 2.8 STL%

Tristan is literally better than Nance at rebounding. That's it. The Cavaliers had a bigger offensive and defensive impact with Nance last season. Tristan got blown away in a lot of advanced metrics and he even had a higher usage rate (17.7 vs. 15.5). If Nance is a "shit player", then Thompson is runny diarrhea.

A few years ago, Tristan was a better player. It's simply just not true anymore.

You can put together a combination of John Henson's career bests, and they're relatively equal to the entirety of Larry Nance just last season. Henson is a better shot blocker though, for sure. He and Nance should both see significant minutes before Thompson.




You haven't been around here that long, I get that, and I'm not trying to be combative, but when you debate around here by spewing out bullshit thoughts that you present as facts and by throwing words into other people's mouths in a desperate attempt to further your point, don't expect people to be all flowery in their responses to you.
You have an opinion you think is correct, I have an opinion that I think is correct. That is how opinions work, no need to be passive aggressive and say I havent been around here long. Been coming here long before I signed up and been on another bball forum since 2008.

I would happily trade out both Nance and Tristan, I am not some Tristan fan boy but he is the better player in my view. Analytics can paint pictures that simply arent true, I saw one the other day that suggested McCollum was less of a player than some hack from his draft (cant remember who it was but it was some replacement value stat.. god knows they really go overboard with these).
Jokic is a rare passing big man that Nance will never be so why even bother. Nance lead our team in assists last year you may look at that as a positive for Nance but I look at that as a major issue for us and the way our team operates. My comments about his ego are what I am getting from his interviews and what I am seeing on court (he completely burnt Garland on an inbound pass to throw it to Clarkson).

Their offensive vs defensive rating are both surprising tbh, arent both their offensive ratings being higher than defensive indicate they're both positive players? I would have thought neither were. Both randomly have very high offensive ratings..

Do you at least agree there is some buddy ball that is detrimental to development going on between those two?

I dont like Nance as a player for this team one bit and I will never apologise for it. His role should be limited. Give the ball to Garland and Sexton and let them try and develop.
 

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You have an opinion you think is correct, I have an opinion that I think is correct. That is how opinions work, no need to be passive aggressive and say I havent been around here long. Been coming here long before I signed up and been on another bball forum since 2008.
Not being passive aggressive - it's extremely annoying when I'm trying to debate somebody and they counter with assumptions of my fandom (assuming I like Nance because of his father when I didn't even mention Sr.) and by construing my words into a narrative that I wasn't even pushing to try to help your argument.

I would happily trade out both Nance and Tristan, I am not some Tristan fan boy but he is the better player in my view. Analytics can paint pictures that simply arent true, I saw one the other day that suggested McCollum was less of a player than some hack from his draft (cant remember who it was but it was some replacement value stat.. god knows they really go overboard with these).
We already know what Tristan is, and he's declining if anything. His defensive numbers have declined across the board the past four seasons, Nance has improved in DBPM the past three seasons. He is trending up, Tristan is trending down. Nance likely won't ever been an all-star, but still has potential for growth and definitely has more overall basketball skill. We've watched Nance play here for terrible coaches. I don't think either guys are starters for a contender as of right now.

And yeah, people can manipulate analytics to further arguments, but I threw out literally every single notable advanced metric that is commonly used and Nance led Tristan in all of them besides TRB%. When there is that much pure domination in an analytical comparison, it's more likely that the one player is simply better than it is of me trying to paint a false story. Nance is better than Thompson, and the numbers and eye test back it up.

Jokic is a rare passing big man that Nance will never be so why even bother. Nance lead our team in assists last year you may look at that as a positive for Nance but I look at that as a major issue for us and the way our team operates. My comments about his ego are what I am getting from his interviews and what I am seeing on court (he completely burnt Garland on an inbound pass to throw it to Clarkson).
You're correct on Jokic. I think he's probably the best passing big man I've ever seen, either him or Pau Gasol.

That doesn't mean that no other big man should strive to be good playmakers though. That's like saying, "hey Cedi Osman has some potential as a two way wing, but he'll never be LeBron, so who gives a shit?". Jokic is a top-7 player in basketball, of course Nance will never be that.

I agree that Nance shouldn't lead our team in assists, but I understand why he did last year. Most of it was Drew's trash system that made guys like Nance, Thompson, etc. keeping the ball too much. That should change with JB, Garland, and Sexton this year, but that also doesn't mean we should restrict Nance's passing ability, because it is extremely above average for a big man.

For his ego, you see a guy that looks like a douche (my words, not yours), I see a stand-up community guy that helps in the community and helped form a charity for those affected by Crohn's disease: https://www.babble.com/entertainment/larry-nance-jr-noah-weber-crohns-disease/

He's honestly a pretty damn solid guy, and I don't see any ego on the court from him. He missed a rookie once on an inbound pass - it happens.

Their offensive vs defensive rating are both surprising tbh, arent both their offensive ratings being higher than defensive indicate they're both positive players? I would have thought neither were. Both randomly have very high offensive ratings..
No, offensive rating measures an individual player's proficiency at producing points for the offense. Nance's 120 rating is higher than Thompson's 117, thus Nance was more useful than Thompson for getting points on the board for Cleveland last year. Basically, if you could choose between having Nance or Thompson on offense, you'd choose Nance based on that figure.

Defensive rating is the same way, except in reverse. Defensive rating measures points allowed per-100 possessions, so the lower your defensive rating number, the better. Nance's d-rating was 112, while Thompson's was 120. Again, based on that figure, you'd definitely want Nance on the floor over Thompson for your typical defensive possession. The fact that Nance led TT in both metrics (and by a lot in drtg, 8 points is significant), furthers my arguments of Nance being the more useful player to team success last season, along with Nance blowing him away in the other metrics I posted.

There really is no distinct relationship between offensive rating and defensive rating. They tell their own story on each side of the floor.

Nance also had the best offensive rating and defensive rating on the team last season, for what that's worth to you.

Do you at least agree there is some buddy ball that is detrimental to development going on between those two?

I dont like Nance as a player for this team one bit and I will never apologise for it. His role should be limited. Give the ball to Garland and Sexton and let them try and develop.
Honestly, I haven't really noticed him favor anybody that much. Maybe he goes to Clarkson a bit more since he's been playing with him for a far longer period than anybody on the Cavaliers - especially with the insane amount of roster turnover he has seen in his career. Clarkson has been the one constant he has had, makes sense he'd go to him a bit more while he's getting used to a new organization, coach, and teammates.
 

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Not being passive aggressive - it's extremely annoying when I'm trying to debate somebody and they counter with assumptions of my fandom (assuming I like Nance because of his father when I didn't even mention Sr.) and by construing my words into a narrative that I wasn't even pushing to try to help your argument.



We already know what Tristan is, and he's declining if anything. His defensive numbers have declined across the board the past four seasons, Nance has improved in DBPM the past three seasons. He is trending up, Tristan is trending down. Nance likely won't ever been an all-star, but still has potential for growth and definitely has more overall basketball skill. We've watched Nance play here for terrible coaches. I don't think either guys are starters for a contender as of right now.

And yeah, people can manipulate analytics to further arguments, but I threw out literally every single notable advanced metric that is commonly used and Nance led Tristan in all of them besides TRB%. When there is that much pure domination in an analytical comparison, it's more likely that the one player is simply better than it is of me trying to paint a false story. Nance is better than Thompson, and the numbers and eye test back it up.



You're correct on Jokic. I think he's probably the best passing big man I've ever seen, either him or Pau Gasol.

That doesn't mean that no other big man should strive to be good playmakers though. That's like saying, "hey Cedi Osman has some potential as a two way wing, but he'll never be LeBron, so who gives a shit?". Jokic is a top-7 player in basketball, of course Nance will never be that.

I agree that Nance shouldn't lead our team in assists, but I understand why he did last year. Most of it was Drew's trash system that made guys like Nance, Thompson, etc. keeping the ball too much. That should change with JB, Garland, and Sexton this year, but that also doesn't mean we should restrict Nance's passing ability, because it is extremely above average for a big man.

For his ego, you see a guy that looks like a douche (my words, not yours), I see a stand-up community guy that helps in the community and helped form a charity for those affected by Crohn's disease: https://www.babble.com/entertainment/larry-nance-jr-noah-weber-crohns-disease/

He's honestly a pretty damn solid guy, and I don't see any ego on the court from him. He missed a rookie once on an inbound pass - it happens.



No, offensive rating measures an individual player's proficiency at producing points for the offense. Nance's 120 rating is higher than Thompson's 117, thus Nance was more useful than Thompson for getting points on the board for Cleveland last year. Basically, if you could choose between having Nance or Thompson on offense, you'd choose Nance based on that figure.

Defensive rating is the same way, except in reverse. Defensive rating measures points allowed per-100 possessions, so the lower your defensive rating number, the better. Nance's d-rating was 112, while Thompson's was 120. Again, based on that figure, you'd definitely want Nance on the floor over Thompson for your typical defensive possession. The fact that Nance led TT in both metrics (and by a lot in drtg, 8 points is significant), furthers my arguments of Nance being the more useful player to team success last season, along with Nance blowing him away in the other metrics I posted.

There really is no distinct relationship between offensive rating and defensive rating. They tell their own story on each side of the floor.

Nance also had the best offensive rating and defensive rating on the team last season, for what that's worth to you.



Honestly, I haven't really noticed him favor anybody that much. Maybe he goes to Clarkson a bit more since he's been playing with him for a far longer period than anybody on the Cavaliers - especially with the insane amount of roster turnover he has seen in his career. Clarkson has been the one constant he has had, makes sense he'd go to him a bit more while he's getting used to a new organization, coach, and teammates.
where are you getting those numbers?
Here they are a bit diff: https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612739
According to NBA site TT had the better offensive rating, Nance had the better overall rating.
There was just no way Nance had a 120 offensive rating lol



Nance was fantastic in preseason btw.. https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Pre Season&TeamID=1610612739
 

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where are you getting those numbers?
Here they are a bit diff: https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612739
According to NBA site TT had the better offensive rating, Nance had the better overall rating.
There was just no way Nance had a 120 offensive rating lol



Nance was fantastic in preseason btw.. https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Pre Season&TeamID=1610612739

Nance had a 125 rating the season before, 127 after he got traded to Cleveland.
 

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I'm not terribly impressed with the news that has been leaking out.

Seems like a lot of odd things about not using the personnel to their strengths and trying to make them fit a system rather than the reverse.

22-60 with coach on the hot seat after like a 14 game losing streak in Jan-Feb.

But then they'll remember that they hired him to develop the kids.
 

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