2019 Regular Season Predictions

[Wham with the Right Hand]

THe fact he thinks he should be a playmaker and shoots 3's. Also seen enough buddy ball with Clarkson to last a life time. Crap player.

Here's what Beilein had to say about Nance thinking he should be a playmaker:

"[Kevin Love] realizes the way our offense works, everybody’s going to touch it a lot, it’s not going to stop. We’d be crazy not to use his passing skills and Larry Nance’s passing skills in our offense -- playing through them just as much as a normal guard". - Beilein, 10/9/19

Wow, it almost sounds like he thinks we'd be crazy not to use Nance's passing skills just as much as a normal guard.

But I'm probably reading too much into it. And yeah, he was our best player last year, except when Love was healthy at the end of the season. My only beef with Nance is that I think he should get more blocked shots considering his height, agility, and leaping ability, but a lot of times he ends up guarding two players after a blow-by of Sexton or Delly or...anybody else actually.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

If TT can actually shot the 3 ball during games that just ups his value. At worse its a failed experiment and the coaching staff cuts his 3 pt shots out of the offense. Even if TT is a failure, asking all the bigs to expand their 3 point game is a good thing, maybe Nance is able to play more PF or Henson is good enough with his 3 point shooting that it smooths out the rotation.

Games aren't the time to practice shooting. Guys should be improving their shot in the offseason and in practice, and start shooting them in games only after they've demonstrated the ability to hit them consistently in practice. There is zero indication that TT has been draining 3's consistently in practice.

It's where the NBA is trending and it's the type of offense we should be running for the young guys to grow in.

You can't run that offense correctly if you don't have the personnel for it. It's making those outside shots -- not simply taking them -- that makes it work. Having a bunch of big guys taking outside shots and laying bricks teaches nobody anything of value.

Every team in the league would love to have all its big men able to hit threes, but that's not reality. Good coaches will modify their "preferred" system to take advantage of the talent - or lack thereof - on the roster. If your big men aren't good at shooting threes, then you adjust your offense unless/until you acquire guys capable of doing that.

And the reality is that you may never acquire those guys. I don't think there's any coach in the league who has exactly the right "style" of player at every position to play rigidly his ideal system, so you have to run the system that best first your talent. Exceptional talent is too rare to not maximize it just because it doesn't fit the particular "system" you want to run, or the "system" to which the NBA may seem to be trending at a given time.

Look at what Malone did with the Nuggets. Nobody was running their offense through a center as the primary distributor in the high post. The NBA wasn't trending in that direction, But Malone had Jokic, saw that massive potential of his talent, and so runs a center-oriented system that nobody else in the league runs. That's great coaching.

tl;dr -- Great coaches adjust their system to the talent. Bad coaches try to force their talent to adjust to their system. It's only the preseason, but so far, it seems like Beilein is one of the latter guys. He's got his perfect "system" in mind, and by God he's going to play that system even if we don't have the talent to make it work.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Not being passive aggressive - it's extremely annoying when I'm trying to debate somebody and they counter with assumptions of my fandom (assuming I like Nance because of his father when I didn't even mention Sr.) and by construing my words into a narrative that I wasn't even pushing to try to help your argument.



We already know what Tristan is, and he's declining if anything. His defensive numbers have declined across the board the past four seasons, Nance has improved in DBPM the past three seasons. He is trending up, Tristan is trending down. Nance likely won't ever been an all-star, but still has potential for growth and definitely has more overall basketball skill. We've watched Nance play here for terrible coaches. I don't think either guys are starters for a contender as of right now.

And yeah, people can manipulate analytics to further arguments, but I threw out literally every single notable advanced metric that is commonly used and Nance led Tristan in all of them besides TRB%. When there is that much pure domination in an analytical comparison, it's more likely that the one player is simply better than it is of me trying to paint a false story. Nance is better than Thompson, and the numbers and eye test back it up.



You're correct on Jokic. I think he's probably the best passing big man I've ever seen, either him or Pau Gasol.

That doesn't mean that no other big man should strive to be good playmakers though. That's like saying, "hey Cedi Osman has some potential as a two way wing, but he'll never be LeBron, so who gives a shit?". Jokic is a top-7 player in basketball, of course Nance will never be that.

I agree that Nance shouldn't lead our team in assists, but I understand why he did last year. Most of it was Drew's trash system that made guys like Nance, Thompson, etc. keeping the ball too much. That should change with JB, Garland, and Sexton this year, but that also doesn't mean we should restrict Nance's passing ability, because it is extremely above average for a big man.

For his ego, you see a guy that looks like a douche (my words, not yours), I see a stand-up community guy that helps in the community and helped form a charity for those affected by Crohn's disease: https://www.babble.com/entertainment/larry-nance-jr-noah-weber-crohns-disease/

He's honestly a pretty damn solid guy, and I don't see any ego on the court from him. He missed a rookie once on an inbound pass - it happens.



No, offensive rating measures an individual player's proficiency at producing points for the offense. Nance's 120 rating is higher than Thompson's 117, thus Nance was more useful than Thompson for getting points on the board for Cleveland last year. Basically, if you could choose between having Nance or Thompson on offense, you'd choose Nance based on that figure.

Defensive rating is the same way, except in reverse. Defensive rating measures points allowed per-100 possessions, so the lower your defensive rating number, the better. Nance's d-rating was 112, while Thompson's was 120. Again, based on that figure, you'd definitely want Nance on the floor over Thompson for your typical defensive possession. The fact that Nance led TT in both metrics (and by a lot in drtg, 8 points is significant), furthers my arguments of Nance being the more useful player to team success last season, along with Nance blowing him away in the other metrics I posted.

There really is no distinct relationship between offensive rating and defensive rating. They tell their own story on each side of the floor.

Nance also had the best offensive rating and defensive rating on the team last season, for what that's worth to you.

Honestly, I haven't really noticed him favor anybody that much. Maybe he goes to Clarkson a bit more since he's been playing with him for a far longer period than anybody on the Cavaliers - especially with the insane amount of roster turnover he has seen in his career. Clarkson has been the one constant he has had, makes sense he'd go to him a bit more while he's getting used to a new organization, coach, and teammates.

If I were Nance last year I'd be passing to Clarkson, too, that is, if the desired result was 2 points.

Here's a few quotes relevant to the TT v. Nance debate:

"After playing at the league’s second-slowest pace in 2018-19, the Cavs want to pick that up. Playing a two-guard front should help. Having athletes should as well". - Chris Fedor, 10/6/19

"In Beilein’s system the 4 is often asked to be an offensive hub, initiating from the top of the key or the post. Sometimes it means playing on the perimeter, spacing the floor and pulling defenders away from the rim, allowing Cleveland’s alluring backcourt tandem of Darius Garland and Collin Sexton to attack the paint. In preparation for this new opportunity, Nance estimates taking more than 20,000 3-pointers. - Fedor, 10/6/19

"He’s not just a shooter. Everything we are looking for is guys who can dribble, drive, pass and shoot. Add basketball IQ to that and you fit into coach’s system. - Koby Altman on Dylan Windler

To sum it up, the Cavs want to play faster, use the 4 as an "offensive hub", and they like guys who have all the skills, especially the ability to pass, dribble, and shoot.

It looks to me as if Nance fits this system to a T while Tristan might be a square peg in a round hole, along with Zizic. Also, Fedor said today he thinks TT is the player most likely to be traded this season.

Finally, you can’t go by the pre-season stats. TT played against the team from Argentina but sat out the last two against the Celtics while Nance played big minutes against Boston.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

By the way, if you want a big that doesn't dribble, pass, or shoot much, Zizic was better than TT last year. Offensively they were about the same but defensively Z was much better.

Players Advanced | Stats | NBA.com

A table featuring advanced information for each player in the league based on selected filters.

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[Derek]

30 wins the absolute ceiling? I’m not so sure. Last year's Cavaliers team changed a lot over the course of the season. Rodney Hood played over 1,200 minutes and started 45 games, but he wasn’t around at the end. Same for Alec Burks, who played nearly 1,000 minutes. George Hill played 344 minutes, and Kyle Korver 251. The Cavs' record with those guys playing significant roles has no bearing on this season.

I draw a line when Kevin Love returned. He played more than 20 minutes for the first time on Feb. 21 against Phoenix. Going into that game the Cavs were 12-46. The rest of the way they went 7-17, so their winning percentage improved from 20.7% to 29.2% with a healthy Kevin Love, even though he was playing 28-30 minutes and taking some games off. He played 11 of 15 games in March. That 7-17 record included wins over Toronto, Milwaukee and Memphis.

If the Cavs win 29.2% in 2019-20 they’ll win 24 games. You could make an argument that if the Cavs had no draft picks and made no roster moves whatsover they could win 24 games this year if Love can play 65 games or so.

But if you take the team that went 7-17 over the last 30% of the season, subtract Nwaba, Chriss, Stauskas, and Adel while adding Garland, Windler, Porter, and Henson how many wins do you add or subtract from 24? I would argue that we got little from Nwaba and almost nothing from the other three. We don't know how good our three rookies will be and how much Henson will play, but I think the team is definitely improved and I'm looking for 30 wins.

But if they trade TT, Henson, and Clarkson in mid-season like they did with Hood, Korver, Burks, and Hill last year then we're probably looking at something like 24 wins.

The problem is, the Cavs may have added talent through the draft, but those players will still almost certainly be net negatives this upcoming season. It is very rare that rookies contribute to winning.

For example, I think Collin Sexton had an above-average rookie season. However, he was certainly a net negative last year.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Some interesting stuff from Fedor to start the week.

Does Darius Garland have chance to win Rookie of the Year? Hey, Chris!

Chris Fedor answers your Cleveland Cavaliers questions in the latest edition of Hey, Chris!

www.cleveland.com

1. Garland "has a natural feel to running the offense...he excels in all the areas other elite point guards do...he's better than people realize"

(Wait..."other elite point guards"? Isn't that a little premature, Chris?)

2. As for the five players on expiring contracts, "The hope is to flip one, two, or at most three for future draft picks" while signing a couple of them to lower cost extensions..."I'd currently rank it this way as most likely to go: Thompson, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Knight, Henson and Matthew Dellavedova."

(Like I said, I don't think Thompson's skill set fits Beilein's system. Clarkson should be attractive to a team looking for instant offense off the bench. Also, we have KPJ to groom for that role. Knight should be in demand for his big expiring contract. Henson is a guy Beilein has raved about and brings a level of rim protection nobody else does so I can see them wanting to keep him. Delly just seems to fit here and I don't see much demand for his services.)

3. Sexton's development is ahead of schedule and he "should benefit greatly from Garland’s arrival" as it will allow him to "be himself -- a lethal scoring guard who can fill it at all three levels while not worrying as much about the other "point guard" responsibilities."

 

[Jordan]

Not being passive aggressive - it's extremely annoying when I'm trying to debate somebody and they counter with assumptions of my fandom (assuming I like Nance because of his father when I didn't even mention Sr.) and by construing my words into a narrative that I wasn't even pushing to try to help your argument.



We already know what Tristan is, and he's declining if anything. His defensive numbers have declined across the board the past four seasons, Nance has improved in DBPM the past three seasons. He is trending up, Tristan is trending down. Nance likely won't ever been an all-star, but still has potential for growth and definitely has more overall basketball skill. We've watched Nance play here for terrible coaches. I don't think either guys are starters for a contender as of right now.

And yeah, people can manipulate analytics to further arguments, but I threw out literally every single notable advanced metric that is commonly used and Nance led Tristan in all of them besides TRB%. When there is that much pure domination in an analytical comparison, it's more likely that the one player is simply better than it is of me trying to paint a false story. Nance is better than Thompson, and the numbers and eye test back it up.



You're correct on Jokic. I think he's probably the best passing big man I've ever seen, either him or Pau Gasol.

That doesn't mean that no other big man should strive to be good playmakers though. That's like saying, "hey Cedi Osman has some potential as a two way wing, but he'll never be LeBron, so who gives a shit?". Jokic is a top-7 player in basketball, of course Nance will never be that.

I agree that Nance shouldn't lead our team in assists, but I understand why he did last year. Most of it was Drew's trash system that made guys like Nance, Thompson, etc. keeping the ball too much. That should change with JB, Garland, and Sexton this year, but that also doesn't mean we should restrict Nance's passing ability, because it is extremely above average for a big man.

For his ego, you see a guy that looks like a douche (my words, not yours), I see a stand-up community guy that helps in the community and helped form a charity for those affected by Crohn's disease: https://www.babble.com/entertainment/larry-nance-jr-noah-weber-crohns-disease/

He's honestly a pretty damn solid guy, and I don't see any ego on the court from him. He missed a rookie once on an inbound pass - it happens.



No, offensive rating measures an individual player's proficiency at producing points for the offense. Nance's 120 rating is higher than Thompson's 117, thus Nance was more useful than Thompson for getting points on the board for Cleveland last year. Basically, if you could choose between having Nance or Thompson on offense, you'd choose Nance based on that figure.

Defensive rating is the same way, except in reverse. Defensive rating measures points allowed per-100 possessions, so the lower your defensive rating number, the better. Nance's d-rating was 112, while Thompson's was 120. Again, based on that figure, you'd definitely want Nance on the floor over Thompson for your typical defensive possession. The fact that Nance led TT in both metrics (and by a lot in drtg, 8 points is significant), furthers my arguments of Nance being the more useful player to team success last season, along with Nance blowing him away in the other metrics I posted.

There really is no distinct relationship between offensive rating and defensive rating. They tell their own story on each side of the floor.

Nance also had the best offensive rating and defensive rating on the team last season, for what that's worth to you.



Honestly, I haven't really noticed him favor anybody that much. Maybe he goes to Clarkson a bit more since he's been playing with him for a far longer period than anybody on the Cavaliers - especially with the insane amount of roster turnover he has seen in his career. Clarkson has been the one constant he has had, makes sense he'd go to him a bit more while he's getting used to a new organization, coach, and teammates.

It is also fair to argue that offensive and defensive rating stats can overvalue a player based on the four guys around him. I.E., IIRC, one year Delly had a higher net rating than Kyrie because all of the former's minutes came with LeBron on the court.

BUT, this is where the regression-based metrics like RPM, RAPM, PIPM, VORP, etc. are cool. Using slightly different mathematical formulas (I.e., they plug different stats into the regression, use a different type of regression, normalize regression stats differently, or weight the regression results differently), these stats can control for the other nine guys on the court.

What that means is Nance was the better player last year. I do not ever think Nance will be a star, and that's because of certain limitations that make him look like an average player - he does not have a great handle, he struggles creating his own shot, etc. The problem is people way overweigh those limitations. In doing so, they miss that Nance's defense, rebounding, and secondary playmaking make him the perfect role player.

I still think people are too hard on Tristan, but Nance did more last season to help this Cavs team win.

 

[Derek]

I don't really care whose better between TT and Nance. In my opinion, neither will be here when we're winning games again.

TT is simply easier to trade this year due to his contract.

Although, I will say the Nance ego thing has more truth to it than I'd like. I don't know anything about an inbounds pass to Clarkson, but he's definitely seeking more touches and more scoring opportunities this year.

 

[Muffinalt]

Just my personal opinion but I also think there is a bit of an ego thing with LNJ. I mean it's the NBA right, 90% of the league has an ego problem, but as much as I was in love with him when we traded for him, I've since come down quite a bit.

Anyway in our current state, the guy's egos are the last thing we need to worry about. And Nance clearly has talent.

 

[Nathan S]

Well, he had the 2nd-lowest field goal attempt rate on the team last year, ahead of only Nwaba, and the 2nd-highest true shooting percentage, behind only Zizic. If anyone's due for a modest increase in scoring opportunities, it's him.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Speaking purely out of my ass about Nance, his "problem" seems to be that he thinks "if I can do something better than you, then I should be doing it instead of you." And in some sense, that's perfectly sound thinking. The problem is that it doesn't fit well on a rebuilding team with lots of young guys who need on-court experience at certain things -- including the ability to see the floor, make the correct pass, etc. -- to get better at them. Or at least to figure out if they can get better at them.

Nance clearly froze Sexton out at some points last season because Sexton was screwing up. But if you freeze him out...he's not going to get better at those things.

 

[Derek]

Well, he had the 2nd-lowest field goal attempt rate on the team last year, ahead of only Nwaba, and the 2nd-highest true shooting percentage, behind only Zizic. If anyone's due for a modest increase in scoring opportunities, it's him.

I'm fine with a modest increase.

I'm not fine with the "He better get me 15 shots/game" quote I heard from Nance talking about Beilein.

 

[Nathan S]

I'm fine with a modest increase.

I'm not fine with the "He better get me 15 shots/game" quote I heard from Nance talking about Beilein.

I'm not fine with Nance taking 15 shots per game either. More than double his FGA from last year...hard to imagine what that would even look like. Hopefully just one more 3-point attempt and one more dunk/layup per game in the flow of the offense.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Not being passive aggressive - it's extremely annoying when I'm trying to debate somebody and they counter with assumptions of my fandom (assuming I like Nance because of his father when I didn't even mention Sr.) and by construing my words into a narrative that I wasn't even pushing to try to help your argument.



We already know what Tristan is, and he's declining if anything. His defensive numbers have declined across the board the past four seasons, Nance has improved in DBPM the past three seasons. He is trending up, Tristan is trending down. Nance likely won't ever been an all-star, but still has potential for growth and definitely has more overall basketball skill. We've watched Nance play here for terrible coaches. I don't think either guys are starters for a contender as of right now.

And yeah, people can manipulate analytics to further arguments, but I threw out literally every single notable advanced metric that is commonly used and Nance led Tristan in all of them besides TRB%. When there is that much pure domination in an analytical comparison, it's more likely that the one player is simply better than it is of me trying to paint a false story. Nance is better than Thompson, and the numbers and eye test back it up.



You're correct on Jokic. I think he's probably the best passing big man I've ever seen, either him or Pau Gasol.

That doesn't mean that no other big man should strive to be good playmakers though. That's like saying, "hey Cedi Osman has some potential as a two way wing, but he'll never be LeBron, so who gives a shit?". Jokic is a top-7 player in basketball, of course Nance will never be that.

I agree that Nance shouldn't lead our team in assists, but I understand why he did last year. Most of it was Drew's trash system that made guys like Nance, Thompson, etc. keeping the ball too much. That should change with JB, Garland, and Sexton this year, but that also doesn't mean we should restrict Nance's passing ability, because it is extremely above average for a big man.

For his ego, you see a guy that looks like a douche (my words, not yours), I see a stand-up community guy that helps in the community and helped form a charity for those affected by Crohn's disease: https://www.babble.com/entertainment/larry-nance-jr-noah-weber-crohns-disease/

He's honestly a pretty damn solid guy, and I don't see any ego on the court from him. He missed a rookie once on an inbound pass - it happens.



No, offensive rating measures an individual player's proficiency at producing points for the offense. Nance's 120 rating is higher than Thompson's 117, thus Nance was more useful than Thompson for getting points on the board for Cleveland last year. Basically, if you could choose between having Nance or Thompson on offense, you'd choose Nance based on that figure.

Defensive rating is the same way, except in reverse. Defensive rating measures points allowed per-100 possessions, so the lower your defensive rating number, the better. Nance's d-rating was 112, while Thompson's was 120. Again, based on that figure, you'd definitely want Nance on the floor over Thompson for your typical defensive possession. The fact that Nance led TT in both metrics (and by a lot in drtg, 8 points is significant), furthers my arguments of Nance being the more useful player to team success last season, along with Nance blowing him away in the other metrics I posted.

There really is no distinct relationship between offensive rating and defensive rating. They tell their own story on each side of the floor.

Nance also had the best offensive rating and defensive rating on the team last season, for what that's worth to you.



Honestly, I haven't really noticed him favor anybody that much. Maybe he goes to Clarkson a bit more since he's been playing with him for a far longer period than anybody on the Cavaliers - especially with the insane amount of roster turnover he has seen in his career. Clarkson has been the one constant he has had, makes sense he'd go to him a bit more while he's getting used to a new organization, coach, and teammates.

I generally agree with all of that...but you really don't think Nance ever froze Sexton out? I didn't bookmark the plays, but I recall a fair number of plays where it seemed very obvious he refused even to look at Sexton.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I'm not fine with Nance taking 15 shots per game either. More than double his FGA from last year...hard to imagine what that would even look like. Hopefully just one more 3-point attempt and one more dunk/layup per game in the flow of the offense.

Presumably, the 3's he shot last year were the best opportunities he had. Favorite spots, most open, etc.. If you start demanding that he shoot more, he's almost certainly going to be taking shots he likes less.