2019 Regular Season Predictions

[inliner311]

It is also fair to argue that offensive and defensive rating stats can overvalue a player based on the four guys around him. I.E., IIRC, one year Delly had a higher net rating than Kyrie because all of the former's minutes came with LeBron on the court.

BUT, this is where the regression-based metrics like RPM, RAPM, PIPM, VORP, etc. are cool. Using slightly different mathematical formulas (I.e., they plug different stats into the regression, use a different type of regression, normalize regression stats differently, or weight the regression results differently), these stats can control for the other nine guys on the court.

What that means is Nance was the better player last year. I do not ever think Nance will be a star, and that's because of certain limitations that make him look like an average player - he does not have a great handle, he struggles creating his own shot, etc. The problem is people way overweigh those limitations. In doing so, they miss that Nance's defense, rebounding, and secondary playmaking make him the perfect role player.

I still think people are too hard on Tristan, but Nance did more last season to help this Cavs team win.

I think there is a catch 22 with Nance at the moment with what he does best with his skill set. I think he would be way more useful if he stuck to what he does best and plays center. The problem is his body just can't hold up to a full regular season playing center and he wears down fairly quickly. He looks way more explosive right now than at the end of last season.

At the end of the day it's either he expands his 3 pt shooting so he can play PF and not over extend himself so he can actually play the whole season or we just live with who he is and we get like 40 games a year from him.

With his extension, they might as well try to build up his skill set to be a PF. I doubt they could trade him without adding an asset in the next 2 years.

 

[Nathan S]

Presumably, the 3's he shot last year were the best opportunities he had. Favorite spots, most open, etc.. If you start demanding that he shoot more, he's almost certainly going to be taking shots he likes less.

Well, prior to last year he was a 22% career 3-point shooter on 0.3 attempts per game. Then last year he managed 34% shooting on 1.5 attempts per game. I'm hoping that he can take another step forward this season, shoot maybe 2.5 attempts per game, and maintain a mid-30's shooting percentage in spite of taking slightly more difficult shots on average. Seems like a reasonable ask if he's been practicing as much as he says he has.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Well, prior to last year he was a 22% career 3-point shooter on 0.3 attempts per game. Then last year he managed 34% shooting on 1.5 attempts per game. I'm hoping that he can take another step forward this season, shoot maybe 2.5 attempts per game, and maintain a mid-30's shooting percentage in spite of taking slightly more difficult shots on average. Seems like a reasonable ask if he's been practicing as much as he says he has.

I'm not quite sure how much improvement that actually was, as opposed to a tiny sample size distorting how bad a shooter (22%) he really was. That being said, maintaining 35% or so with a slightly higher FGA is probably within the realm of reasonable expectations. Enough to keep other teams honest, but not enough to make him an actual weapon from the outside.

 

[NorthCoastBias]

My 2019-20 season prediction

 

[LeeBuckeye]

IF we win half our games against scrub EC teams assuming we play 4 times (Charlotte, New York, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit): 12 Wins
IF we win half our games against scrub WC teams assuming with 2 games played (Memphis, Phoenix, New Orleans, OKC): 4 Wins

Other variable are scheduling losses for the opposition and other factors such as them simply looking past us. We nearly beat GSW on the road last year ffs.

26 wins is probably the best case scenario with a new coach and system along with inevitable roster turnover with a possible Love move.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Shooting 3's for non real stretch bigs is fine, but it needs to be exclusively from the corners.

Henson, Len, whatever shoot it from the corners. It shouldn't be hard to create corner 3's for such bigs. Start from there. Martin shooting 3's from top of the break is crazy and unnecessary.

 

[Bulldog2Buckeye]

I predict the starting lineup to close the season (if healthy) will be
Garland
Sexton
Porter
PTBNL (trade love at the deadline to the Blazers or Rockets)
TT
I don’t think Cedi will do enough to beat out Porter by the end of the season.

 

[Stark]

I generally agree with all of that...but you really don't think Nance ever froze Sexton out? I didn't bookmark the plays, but I recall a fair number of plays where it seemed very obvious he refused even to look at Sexton.

It's definitely possible. Truthfully I didn't notice it happen consistently enough where it was something to be concerned about.

I was more concerned about offense seemingly running through Nance and Thompson last year in general, both guys had pretty high usage rates for non-superstar big men.

I think a lot of it falls on the terrible coaching last year, and if Nance was intentionally telling Sexton to shove it just because he was a rookie, then yeah, Nance deserves some heat for that too.

I want to see how this coach reacts to JB's system. His two guard sets at Michigan were really fun to watch (and I'm an OSU fan), and he did a good job at integrating his bigs when he had the talent there.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

That being said, maintaining 35% or so with a slightly higher FGA is probably within the realm of reasonable expectations. Enough to keep other teams honest, but not enough to make him an actual weapon from the outside.

Nance shot 33.7% on 3’s last year, equivalent to 50.6% on 2’s. Last year the Cavs shot 48.8% on 2's so Nance's 3-point shooting last year was slightly superior to the team as a whole on 2-point shots.

So I don't know if I would describe Nance's 3-point shooting as a "weapon", but the Cavs were better with him shooting 3's than with the general population shooting 2's.

He says he took 20,000 3's this summer. If all that practice can bump his percentage up to the 36-38 range, which seems realistic, then we’ll have a pretty decent 4 when you factor the rest of his game.

 

[cabs]

Ok I am going to give Nance a clean slate to impress me starting tomorrow and I'll watch him closely on both ends

 

[Green Lantern]

0-82

Garland First All-NBA. First to lead his team to 0 win record.

I predict....PAIN...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I just hope the Cavs first game isn't too similar to the Browns' first game.

I'm keeping my expectations low since Orlando was a playoff team last year and they're a veteran group that has most of their squad returning. They're going to be way ahead of the Cavs in terms of cohesion.

It will be interesting to watch Garland go against real NBA talent in a meaningful game. Fedor thinks he may have a rookie season comparable to Kyrie's rookie season. There definitely are some similarities, especially the abbreviated college "career".

Since the idea is to move the ball but they're not accustomed to the offense I'm expecting things won't go smoothly and the Cavs will end up having to force up a lot of shots with the clock expiring.

Hoping for a little better defense with Bickerstaff on the staff but that may not be realistic immediately.

 

[Jordan]

I just hope the Cavs first game isn't too similar to the Browns' first game.

I'm keeping my expectations low since Orlando was a playoff team last year and they're a veteran group that has most of their squad returning. They're going to be way ahead of the Cavs in terms of cohesion.

It will be interesting to watch Garland go against real NBA talent in a meaningful game. Fedor thinks he may have a rookie season comparable to Kyrie's rookie season. There definitely are some similarities, especially the abbreviated college "career".

Since the idea is to move the ball but they're not accustomed to the offense I'm expecting things won't go smoothly and the Cavs will end up having to force up a lot of shots with the clock expiring.

Hoping for a little better defense with Bickerstaff on the staff but that may not be realistic immediately.

The Cavs are expected to give way too many minutes to rookies and young guys that have no track record of positive defensive play. The team may not be as bad as last year, but last year was the worst NBA defense in the past twenty years.

 

[Norm]

Ummmmm........does the winner get an Amazon gift card?

 

[AllforOne]

Ok I am going to give Nance a clean slate to impress me starting tomorrow and I'll watch him closely on both ends

Props to you for being open-minded; that's always a good way to be. On a Cavs message board, or anywhere else actually.

I see Nance as a guy who can be a useful rotational player on a winner. Definitely not your best player or two, and probably not your third or fourth-best player either. That said, he brings a nice skill set to the table. He still has some upside as a shooter, and he's on a very team-friendly declining contract (he's going to be a freaking bargain at $9.6 million in 2022-23).