2019 Tribe Bullpen Discussion

[Derek]

I hate game/series threads, so I thought I'd start a new thread for some specific discussions.

Obviously over the course of this season the bullpen has performed more than admirably, but a few recent lapses have given us all some reason to be concerned.

Even with our recent struggles, the pen still has the best ERA of any team in the league at 3.48, next best is Tampa at 3.67. And while out FIP is is still 2nd in the league behind the Cardinals, our xFIP (which normalizes HR/FB% to league average) is just 14th.

Every regular reliever we have (minus Hand) has outpitched their peripherals by a decent amount.

This means that we've probably been a little lucky to have them produce the way they have. That doesn't mean that they are just suddenly going to suck, but being merely good, or above average, rather than one of the best in the league seems more likely.

The primary problem I see is a lack of truly electric stuff. Brad Hand is our highest ranking reliever in swing and miss rate, and he just barely cracks the top 50 (48th). Swings and misses aren't everything, but even just by the eye test you can see other top pens bringing some overwhelming relief pitcher in the late innings.

 

[BMAN]

I hate game/series threads, so I thought I'd start a new thread for some specific discussions.

Obviously over the course of this season the bullpen has performed more than admirably, but a few recent lapses have given us all some reason to be concerned.

Even with our recent struggles, the pen still has the best ERA of any team in the league at 3.48, next best is Tampa at 3.67. And while out FIP is is still 2nd in the league behind the Cardinals, our xFIP (which normalizes HR/FB% to league average) is just 14th.

Every regular reliever we have (minus Hand) has outpitched their peripherals by a decent amount.

This means that we've probably been a little lucky to have them produce the way they have. That doesn't mean that they are just suddenly going to suck, but being merely good, or above average, rather than one of the best in the league seems more likely.

The primary problem I see is a lack of truly electric stuff. Brad Hand is our highest ranking reliever in swing and miss rate, and he just barely cracks the top 50 (48th). Swings and misses aren't everything, but even just by the eye test you can see other top pens bringing some overwhelming relief pitcher in the late innings.

Any idea what’s going on with Hand? I know his velocity has been good. Is it just having trouble locating and falling behind on hitters?

 

[sportscoach]

Hence why I really wanted to get another veteran arm at the trade deadline. Now luckily it seems the guy I wanted wasn’t the right move, but I feel we mostly agreed on getting another arm. That being said though if Carrasco is able to pitch again, he would be effective out of the pen. I also feel it’s possible Plesac ends the season in the pen as well since he is getting to his inning limit for the season even though we aren’t getting the reinforcements like Kluber back into the rotation anytime soon.

 

[Derek]

Some guys I like in our upper levels that could make an impact as early as next season:

James Karinchak:
Well known by most who follow this section. Has 63 K in just 26 IP this season in the minors. He was absolutely lights out early in the season, but has struggled with control since returning from an injury that cost him two months. 13 walks in 13 AAA innings is concerning, but most have come since his return from injury.

Kyle Nelson:
Started the year in Lynchburg, and is currently in Columbus. Across 3 levels, he has 62 K in 43 IP to go along with a 2.09 ERA (most of which came in some rocky AA appearances following a brief IL stint). Outside Josh Smith, who we've already seen. He's the only lefty of note in our upper level bullpens. Also, he went to college with Bieber.

Nick Sandlin:
Zoomed through our system after being drafted in 2018, but has beens hut down since the end of June. Still, he compiled 38 K in 26.1 IP this year at Akron/Columbus. A sidearming righty that still brings heat, and has a variety of plus offerings, he could be a multi-inning weapon moving forward.

Robert Broom:
Has been absolutely untouchable this season with 66 K in 56 IP across Lynchburg and Akron with just a 0.64 ERA. Like Sandlin, could be a multi-inning guy.

Sam Hentges:
Currently a starter in AA, but has been awful this year. He's huge, and has a couple plus pitches that could play up out of the bullpen.

 

[Derek]

Any idea what’s going on with Hand? I know his velocity has been good. Is it just having trouble locating and falling behind on hitters?

Yes, his walks are up, but mainly when he's been hit, he's been hit very hard. He's still missing close to as many bats as he typically does, but much like another lefty bullpen guy Josh Hader, he's having trouble limiting the damage when the ball is put in play.

His BABIP against is currently .365, and he's giving up a ton of barrels.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I'm interested to see how things go with Kluber and Carrasco as we head into September. Cookie in particular may be a wildcard for the bullpen.

 

[N7RobBob]

I thought Salazar if he came back to his former self would've been a perfect bullpen candidate. Unfortunately he's cooked.

If Carrasco can come in and work out of the bullpen he could be our high leverage situation guy that can be brought in whenever. ie Miller. I know that is a huge ask for him, but an impact arm was needed and it sounds like they knew that based on them discussing arms at the deadline.

 

[Urban]

A bit of a dive into Brad Hand

Hand's from 3/28 to 8/7

46 IP
14.28 K/9
2.15 BB/9
AVG .201
BABIP .319
Soft Contact 15.6%
Med Contact 44.8%
Hard Contact 39.6%

Hand 8/8-8/22

5 IP
5.40 K/9
9.00 BB/9 (FWIW, 5 total walks: 4 were intentional) +1 HBP, which I do not believe counts here
AVG .481
BABIP .542
Soft Contact 16.7%
Med Contact 37.5%
Hard Contact 45.8%

Guide



O-Swing% / Z-Swing% / Swing%
With a 5 game sample, it is hard to take a whole lot away from this without honestly looking at each pitch and evaluating each hitter's plate discipline.

O-Contact% / Z-Contact% / Contact%
In this 5 game sample, hitters are making contract on Hand nearly 20% more than his season average. That coupled with a 1/3 of his typical K-rate is problematic

Zone%
Mostly in line. Wasn't throwing strikes well vs. Boston

F-Strike%
This one is interesting. Others and myself thought Hand was getting in trouble by not throwing first pitch strikes. But looks like he has been in line with his season averages in the last 4 games. When up 0-1 in the count (16 batters): .533 / .563 / .733 with only 2 Ks

Also, interesting to note that his groundball rate was about 46% over the past 3 seasons. This year it's only 24%


Conclusion: we are facing good teams and Hand isn't locating his pitches well

 

[Ohio]

Cookie for closer

 

[Derek]

For everyone clamoring for Cookie. Let's just remember how rusty Bauer was when he came in a pen role at the end of last season. Not sure it's wise to expect these guys to be great in high-leverage situations coming off an injury (or extended time off) without their typical amount of rehab time.

 

[Urban]

For everyone clamoring for Cookie. Let's just remember how rusty Bauer was when he came in a pen role at the end of last season. Not sure it's wise to expect these guys to be great in high-leverage situations coming off an injury (or extended time off) without their typical amount of rehab time.

I think the adjustment from the time between starts to potentially pitching everyday is the most worrisome thing. Bauer was mostly fine in the first 2 games in that Astros series before the wheels came off for him in Game 3.

If all goes according to plan, Carlos should at least have a full month in the big leagues to grow accustomed to this role; Bauer only made 3 appearances at the end of the season before the playoffs start.

 

[Marcus]

The stuff with Brad Hand is most troubling. On the surface, the numbers are pretty good - good enough to be one of the best closers in baseball, even.

Dig a little bit deeper, or even look at his performance in the past month, and you’ll see a different story.

It just feels like he hasn’t been generating as many swings and misses lately - and when guys make contact, they’re crushing the ball.

Obviously he is going to be a huge part of the Indians’ postseason plans, when every game is high leverage and many are decided by one or two runs. If he’s giving up a run or two every time he goes out there then I can’t see how they can continue to keep him in that role, loyalty or not. I wonder how feasible it would be to have a closer by committee or put Cookie in that role (I don’t have high hopes for that scenario, either, due to rust and the fact that he’ll be changing roles completely from what he’s been doing the past few years).

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

For everyone clamoring for Cookie. Let's just remember how rusty Bauer was when he came in a pen role at the end of last season. Not sure it's wise to expect these guys to be great in high-leverage situations coming off an injury (or extended time off) without their typical amount of rehab time.

For me personally, Cookie is more of a "hope" than an "expect".

But nothing wrong with having a bit of hope.

 

[Derek]

I’d be shocked if Brad Hand lost any part of his role. He’s an established guy, and was lights out as recently as a month ago.

At this stage in the season, he’ll be given an opportunity to figure it out, because without him, we’re cooked anyways.

I know you look at the last 5 appearances, and gasp as how few bats he's missed compared to his usual, but that's less than 5 innings. It's basically like a starter getting shelled.

Since the AS break, his numbers are certainly down, but he's still struck out almost 14 guys per 9 innings with less than 4 walks. The .460 BABIP really stands out as he's just gotten absolutely drilled any time they make contact.

 

[Derek]

@Out of the Rafters at the Q

Hand's last two outings:

Average FB velocity
@ Detroit - 90.9 mph
vs KC - 91.6 mph
for the season - 92.8 mph

He's ranged between 90.4 and 94.2 mph for his average velocity in his outings this year.