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2021 NBA Offseason Thread

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Re: Zion, I think his matchup against Tillman in the Michigan State game gave a good indication of the kind of player he may struggle against. 6'6"-6'8" guys who weigh in the neighborhood of 250 lbs and are savvy enough to take advantage of his questionable ballhandling. Draymond, playoff LeBron, Tucker and Millsap if they're 100%.

Stop it.
 
How they call fouls on Zion or against him is going to be very important. He has incredible strength and incredibly quick feet for his weight but is (much?) less skilled than Shaq (as a conventional center) or Lebron were when they entered the league. So how the refs let him use his strength will be key.
 
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Ja Morant is just terrible defensively right now. Shit.
Getting some weak calls in his favour too. Needs to get stronger.
 
The Lakers are in the conversation for sure. I don’t see anybody saying otherwise, but I saw people acting like they were going to run roughshod over the league after that first preseason game. I don’t think their depth is very good, but LBJ/AD is the most talented duo in the league.

Clippers
Rockets
Lakers
Nuggets
Warriors
Jazz

I don’t see much of a gap between those teams, and I’m looking forward to seeing it all shake out.

I’ll say otherwise. I don’t see the Lakers as truly having a title shot. They have the best Big Two combo in the league, but AD is injury prone, Lebron is getting old, and after those two the lineup is really bad — to say it lacks depth is an understatement. There are so many good, deep, young teams in the league right now, one of them is going to put it together this year and stop the Lakers from even getting to the WCF. You heard it here first!

Pre-season I see the Clippers and Sixers as the class of the league. For the Warriors a lot depends on whether Klay is back at 100% by the playoffs
 
I’ll say otherwise. I don’t see the Lakers as truly having a title shot. They have the best Big Two combo in the league, but AD is injury prone, Lebron is getting old, and after those two the lineup is really bad — to say it lacks depth is an understatement. There are so many good, deep, young teams in the league right now, one of them is going to put it together this year and stop the Lakers from even getting to the WCF. You heard it here first!

Pre-season I see the Clippers and Sixers as the class of the league. For the Warriors a lot depends on whether Klay is back at 100% by the playoffs
I don't disagree with any of your reasoning, just the conclusion. In the past, superhuman efforts by LeBron have been enough to carry a team to contention. It probably isn't anymore, but combined with an AD superhuman effort, I think it is.

I think it'd be foolish to assume AD stays healthy all year, but I think it's even more foolish to assume they won't do everything possible to have those two at full strength when playoff time rolls around.
 
I don't disagree with any of your reasoning, just the conclusion. In the past, superhuman efforts by LeBron have been enough to carry a team to contention. It probably isn't anymore, but combined with an AD superhuman effort, I think it is.

I think it'd be foolish to assume AD stays healthy all year, but I think it's even more foolish to assume they won't do everything possible to have those two at full strength when playoff time rolls around.

Don't disagree with this, but is there any record of AD being capable of putting together a superhuman effort to carry a team deep into the post-season? He has put up some great post-season stats but in seven years in the NBA he has won only ONE post-season series (Lebron won eight in his first seven seasons). And some of those NOP teams had talent around him too, Jrue Holiday is better than anyone Lebron had in his first time around in Cleveland.

As far as AD being healthy going in to the playoffs, 1) Lakers are not deep enough to ensure a playoff spot in the West without both Lebron and AD putting up significant regular season minutes, 2) AD being (relatively) healthy going into the playoffs is quite different than him being healthy through four long, tough post-season series.

Lakers are walking a tightrope -- there are too many things that can go wrong and too many good teams waiting to knock them off.
 
Don't disagree with this, but is there any record of AD being capable of putting together a superhuman effort to carry a team deep into the post-season? He has put up some great post-season stats but in seven years in the NBA he has won only ONE post-season series (Lebron won eight in his first seven seasons). And some of those NOP teams had talent around him too, Jrue Holiday is better than anyone Lebron had in his first time around in Cleveland.

As far as AD being healthy going in to the playoffs, 1) Lakers are not deep enough to ensure a playoff spot in the West without both Lebron and AD putting up significant regular season minutes, 2) AD being (relatively) healthy going into the playoffs is quite different than him being healthy through four long, tough post-season series.

Lakers are walking a tightrope -- there are too many things that can go wrong and too many good teams waiting to knock them off.
I can't fault AD for his lack of playoff success. In fact, I'm thoroughly impressed by the little success that he did have.

He won a series and took a game from the eventual champion Warriors with this rotation:

Rajon Rondo
Jrue Holiday
E'Twaun Moore
Nikola Mirotic

those were his other starters

Solomon Hill
Darius Miller
Ian Clark

those were the 3 guys that came off the bench

That team won 48 games and made went 5 games in the second round with the Warriors. Anthony Davis has shown me he can be superhuman in the playoffs. I can't fault him for not winning more when I know who he was up against.
 
I can't fault AD for his lack of playoff success. In fact, I'm thoroughly impressed by the little success that he did have.

He won a series and took a game from the eventual champion Warriors with this rotation:

Rajon Rondo
Jrue Holiday
E'Twaun Moore
Nikola Mirotic

those were his other starters

Solomon Hill
Darius Miller
Ian Clark

those were the 3 guys that came off the bench

That team won 48 games and made went 5 games in the second round with the Warriors. Anthony Davis has shown me he can be superhuman in the playoffs. I can't fault him for not winning more when I know who he was up against.

Eh...with the exception of Moore, all those other starters played like All-Stars against the Blazers. Not like AD carried them.
 
Eh...with the exception of Moore, all those other starters played like All-Stars against the Blazers. Not like AD carried them.

Mirotic and Rondo played out of their minds that series. Got them both taken care of in free agency.
 
Eh...with the exception of Moore, all those other starters played like All-Stars against the Blazers. Not like AD carried them.

And AD was incredible as well, which was my point. I'm just defending AD against the notion that he should have had more playoff success in NO. Given their talent level, and the talent level of their competition, I'd say that New Orleans generally outperformed their expectations.
 
But I don't see any evidence that he has been superhuman to the level you would need to win a championship with a Big Two plus a pile of junk for your team. Somebody else on that team would have to step up in a significant way, who is that going to be? Kuzma? Everyone else is a role player, has-been, or both.
 
But I don't see any evidence that he has been superhuman to the level you would need to win a championship with a Big Two plus a pile of junk for your team. Somebody else on that team would have to step up in a significant way, who is that going to be? Kuzma? Everyone else is a role player, has-been, or both.

I'd say 30 and 13 on great efficiency while being a defensive force is that level of superhuman, and that's exactly what he's done in the playoffs.

Hell, neither LeBron nor Kyrie averaged 30/game when we won the championship, and I'd consider both of their performances to be of the superhuman variety. FWIW the next highest scorer in the finals on that Cavs team was JR with 10.6/game.

I could definitely see LeBron and AD each going for 30/game in an efficient manner while having a couple guys in that 8-12 range.

They could also lose in the first round! Like I said, they're one of six teams I could see making a run at it out West. At least two of those teams won't see the second round. It will just depend on who finds the right chemistry throughout the year, what gets added at the deadline, and who can get hot at the right time.
 
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I'd say 30 and 13 on great efficiency while being a defensive force is that level of superhuman, and that's exactly what he's done in the playoffs.

Hell, neither LeBron nor Kyrie averaged 30/game when we won the championship, and I'd consider both of their performances to be of the superhuman variety. FWIW the next highest scorer in the finals on that Cavs team was JR with 10.6/game.

Big minutes load makes it look more impressive than it really was. Per-minute, his scoring volume, scoring efficiency, and assists all dropped slightly in the playoffs.


Regular season box plus/minus:

Davis +5.2
Jrue +2.1
Mirotic -0.2
Rondo -1.1


Playoff box plus/minus:

Jrue +4.3
Mirotic +4.0
Davis +3.3
Rondo +1.4
 
Big minutes load makes it look more impressive than it really was. Per-minute, his scoring volume, scoring efficiency, and assists all dropped slightly in the playoffs.


Regular season box plus/minus:

Davis +5.2
Jrue +2.1
Mirotic -0.2
Rondo -1.1


Playoff box plus/minus:

Jrue +4.3
Mirotic +4.0
Davis +3.3
Rondo +1.4
Really seems like you're nit-picking.

His per 36 numbers are nearly identical in the regular season and postseason and his TS% hovers just under 60% for both. His scoring volume in each of his first two playoff appearances is better than all but three of LeBron's.

All I'm saying is that if he continues to play the way he has in the playoffs, and vintage playoff LeBron shows up, they have a chance.
 
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