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2020-2021 Cavs Season General Discussion

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I can see them bringing back Exum, my preference is McConnell. Patty is more of a scorer, we need a table setter for our bench + Sexton
 
With the East being terrible, I can't help but wonder "what might have been?" had we decided to play Wade at the beginning of the 10 game debacle. I don't think we win many of those 10, but the night and day difference in how we've played over the last 5 makes me think we might have pulled off a couple of wins. If so, we'd be just a couple of games out of playoff spot with Love/Nance about to return and an easier schedule in the second half. Maybe it's better long term if the losing gets us a stud in the draft, but after a rough few years, making a playoff series would be fun.
 
With the East being terrible, I can't help but wonder "what might have been?" had we decided to play Wade at the beginning of the 10 game debacle. I don't think we win many of those 10, but the night and day difference in how we've played over the last 5 makes me think we might have pulled off a couple of wins. If so, we'd be just a couple of games out of playoff spot with Love/Nance about to return and an easier schedule in the second half. Maybe it's better long term if the losing gets us a stud in the draft, but after a rough few years, making a playoff series would be fun.
It would have helped some.. but the losses would have still happened in many of those games and we may not have seen enough success from Dean to keep him in there.
 
Continuing with an informal first half review...

Defensively the Cavs were below average in the first half, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency. They did some things well, ranking 7th in block percentage and 3rd in steals per play. They were below average in points allowed in the paint and on fast breaks.

The big problem was in defending 3-point shots where they ranked 29th in opponents’ 3-point percentage at 39.8%. Adding in the 2-pointers put them 27th in effective field goal percentage. So when they didn’t block the shot or steal the ball they weren’t good at forcing misses, especially from deep.

The Cavs were below average on the defensive glass, ranking 21st in defensive rebound percentage. When they were able to make the opponent miss they gave up too many second chances.

However, there’s more to the story. During the Cavaliers’ 10-game losing streak, in which they played six games against teams who are in the top six in the Western Conference and two more against the 22-14 Bucks, they allowed an average of 124.3 ppg. In the Cavs’ other 26 games they allowed 107.7 ppg.

There’s a nearly 17 ppg difference between what Cavs’ opponents scored during the losing streak and the other 26 games. In the five games since the end of the losing streak the Cavs have allowed 104 ppg.

In the second half the Cavs have 8 out of 36 games against teams that are four games over .500 or better. They have five more games against teams one or two games over .500. The other 23 games are against teams that are .500 or below.

So the defensive task in the second half is clear; do a better job of contesting 3-point shots to force misses and reduce the number of offensive rebounds by opponents.
 
Looking at the various Cavaliers lineups for the first half, the most effective lineup of those that were on the floor for 100 possessions or more was:

Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Wade, and Allen with a +12.5 points per 100 possessions. That puts them in the 75th percentile of lineups league-wide. This is the lineup that started the last five games.

The only other 100+ possession lineup that had a positive +/- in the first half was Dotson, Okoro, Osman, Nance, and Drummond at +4.5. This lineup was used when Sexton or Garland (or both) were injured. Despite no point guard it did all right. I doubt if we’ll see it again (with Allen in Drummond's spot) unless there’s an injury to Garland or Sexton.

For this exercise I eliminated the lineups that involve players who are no longer on the team like Drummond and Exum.

Taking the most successful lineup and subbing Prince for Wade also was pretty good, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points in 94 possessions. However, if you take that lineup and put Cedi in for Prince/Wade it’s a -6.2 in 46 possessions. To sum it up....

Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Allen, Wade +12.5
Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Allen, Prince +10.5
Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Allen, Osman -6.2

However, if you take that last quintet and put Windler in for Okoro you get:

Sexton, Garland, Windler, Allen, Osman +20.0 (in only 20 possessions)

The biggest positive numbers came in very small sample sizes but might be worth looking at more:

Garland, Okoro, Osman, Wade, Allen +98.3 (in 15 possessions). I’d like to see more of this when Sexton gets a rest. Yeah, it's only 15 possessions but they're earned some more minutes.

Sexton, Osman, Prince, Nance, Allen +72.2 (in 18 possessions). When Garland sits down JBB may want to see this lineup some more.

Individually, the player with the best +/- was Dante Exum with a +14.4 points per 100 possessions. He only played 112 minutes, however.

Second is Nance at +8.6 followed by Wade at +8.3, Sexton at +7.3, and Allen at +4.6. The only other player in the positive was Drummond at +0.5. Garland just missed at -0.2.

The negatives are Prince at -0.8, Dotson at -2.1, Windler at -2.4, Okoro at -2.5, Osman at -4.5, McGee at -5.7, and Stevens at -14.4.

Kevin Love only played 46 minutes but he was a +24.4.

Based on the individual numbers it seems the best lineup might be Sexton, Garland, Prince, and Allen with either Love or Nance at PF.

Or move Nance to small forward and go with a supersized lineup of Sexton, Garland, Nance, Love, and Allen. I can’t wait to see this one, with either Love or Wade at PF.
 
The combination that was seldom used would be the best. Sexton, Garland, Windler, Wade, and Allen. But of course JB won’t try that one. Maybe Altman can give him a buzz again for a heads up.......
 
The combination that was seldom used would be the best. Sexton, Garland, Windler, Wade, and Allen. But of course JB won’t try that one. Maybe Altman can give him a buzz again for a heads up.......
That lineup has yet to make an appearance, but as I said, the lineup of Sexton, Garland, Windler, Osman, and Allen was a +20.0, so subbing Wade for Cedi would probably also do very well.

And Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Wade and Allen has been doing very well so putting Windler in for Okoro would probably work.

Different combinations will work better than others depending on the opponent du jour.
 
I think a buyout of Drummond is all but inevitable. The Cavs aren’t taking back multiple years of bad salary(ies) for a couple of 2nd round picks.
It doesn’t make sense to buy him out when his contract expires at season’s end! Who could we possibly add as a large portion of his expiring contract would still be attached to our salary cap.
 
That lineup has yet to make an appearance, but as I said, the lineup of Sexton, Garland, Windler, Osman, and Allen was a +20.0, so subbing Wade for Cedi would probably also do very well.

And Sexton, Garland, Okoro, Wade and Allen has been doing very well so putting Windler in for Okoro would probably work.

Different combinations will work better than others depending on the opponent du jour.

I just do not have any idea why since Allen has arrived that that combination has never played together...... but what do I know??? SMH
 
I just do not have any idea why since Allen has arrived that that combination has never played together...... but what do I know??? SMH
JBB has been subbing Windler and Cedi in at the same time with Wade going out so we haven't seen Windler and Wade together with Sexton, Garland, and Allen.

If Windler could get more consistent with his 3-point shooting he could supplant Okoro in the starting lineup because he's already better at rebounding and passing. Defensively he's right there with Okoro, IMO, but I can't prove it statistically. But Okoro is four years younger and he was the #5 pick so it appears they have made a decision to give him as many minutes as he can handle this year regardless of the results.
 
I know that he HAS, but why not try something that might click? You know like playing Dean Wade in a role besides occasional mop up minutes. See how that worked? Did JB and the rest of you see the possession where Windler kicked it out straight behind him to Dean for a beautiful assist and 3 ball? Dean said “I knew that was coming. That’s what he likes to do.” You know that’s a thing called chemistry.
 
Nance is supposed to be ready to go for the start of the second half so I expect Wade will no longer be starting and will get fewer minutes than what he's been getting recently.

Also, Prince appears to be over his ankle injury. And Love might be able to play some in the second half as well. Wade may find himself with very limited minutes.

Wade will make $1.8 and $1.9 million the next two years which appears to be a tremendous value. By comparison, Okoro will make $7 million and $8.9 million.

I wonder if Kevin Love would consider retiring after this season if he can't say on the floor in the second half. You simply can't play pro basketball with recurring calf strains. A calf strain knocks you out for at least two months.

He might consider accepting a buyout for the last two years. Does he really want to spend the next two years rehabbing and watching games from the bench? If he comes to the conclusion that he won't be able to play more than a few games at a time he may be willing to take a buyout and start his post-basketball life instead of following the team around in street clothes for the next two years. I think he would find that extremely awkward. He can't be enjoying himself this season. Is he OK with two more years of this?
 
Nance is supposed to be ready to go for the start of the second half so I expect Wade will no longer be starting and will get fewer minutes than what he's been getting recently.

Also, Prince appears to be over his ankle injury. And Love might be able to play some in the second half as well. Wade may find himself with very limited minutes.

Wade will make $1.8 and $1.9 million the next two years which appears to be a tremendous value. By comparison, Okoro will make $7 million and $8.9 million.

I wonder if Kevin Love would consider retiring after this season if he can't say on the floor in the second half. You simply can't play pro basketball with recurring calf strains. A calf strain knocks you out for at least two months.

He might consider accepting a buyout for the last two years. Does he really want to spend the next two years rehabbing and watching games from the bench? If he comes to the conclusion that he won't be able to play more than a few games at a time he may be willing to take a buyout and start his post-basketball life instead of following the team around in street clothes for the next two years. I think he would find that extremely awkward. He can't be enjoying himself this season. Is he OK with two more years of this?
Nance, Allen, Wade, and Love is a good front court. I don’t believe they can stay healthy all at once but I would consider having Nance play some at the 3 in a rotation that brings Windler in at the 2 to help with spacing.

But the real winner is you bc all of these posts were awesome! Thanks for the contribution!
 

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