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2020-2021 Cavs Season General Discussion

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Yes I’m over the tanking, it’s time to win games. I hate when they’re getting blown out every night and I just want to turn it off because it’s so putrid to watch. We’ve done our time and lost so many games over the past few years yet watched other teams pick in the top 3. Just get some god damn fucking wins
 
The Cleveland Cavaliers got the #1 pick 3 times in 4 years *after* also getting the #1 pick to draft Lebron James. To say they don't have Lottery Luck is beyond disingenuous. What has happened since is just the odds evening out.
Totally agree we were extremely lucky in 2003 and in the 2011-14 period but what’s happened since has nothing to do with that. The odds do not change. It’s simply which four balls out of fourteen are drawn. The draws are independent and identically distributed.
 
We've literally had two straight seasons picking a top 5 talent.


The goal is to win ball games.

Go win ball games.
This.
tanking kills your team to the point that the talent you get could very well be wasted anyway on your shit-culture and unstable front office/coach. Plus, with the new weighted lottery chances, you are better off just putting your best foot forward and see where it gets you.
 
This.
tanking kills your team to the point that the talent you get could very well be wasted anyway on your shit-culture and unstable front office/coach. Plus, with the new weighted lottery chances, you are better off just putting your best foot forward and see where it gets you.
I want to kick the Celtics in the nuts at Boston in the play-in tournament. Long shot I know.
 
The Cleveland Cavaliers got the #1 pick 3 times in 4 years *after* also getting the #1 pick to draft Lebron James. To say they don't have Lottery Luck is beyond disingenuous. What has happened since is just the odds evening out.

Yes, I want a top pick every year, too (this year more than most) but its not likely to happen; regardless of the final record. Vegas always wins. We ain't Vegas.
1. The lottery ping-pong balls don't have a memory.

2. While I don't have the time now for a deep dive into the probabilities, I'm not convinced that the Cavs' results have been as skewed as you think.

They have had eight lottery picks since 2011. Six have been their own (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2019, and 2020), then they traded for two others (LAC in 2011 and BKN in 2018). Three of those picks improved their position as a result of the lottery (the three #1s); the other five did not. Specifically:

2011: 2nd worst record; pick was 4th
2011: (from LAC) 8th worst record; pick was 1st
2012: tied for 2nd worst record; pick was 4th
2013: 3rd worst record; pick was 1st
2014: 9th worst record; pick was 1st
2018: (from BKN) 8th worst record; pick was 8th
2019: tied for 2nd worst record; pick was 5th
2020: 2nd worst record; pick was 5th

Compare that record to, say, the Sixers:
2010: 6th worst record; pick was 2nd
2011: (not in lottery)
2012: (not in lottery)
2013: tied for 11th-worst record; pick was 11th
2014: 2nd worst record; pick was 3rd
2015: 3rd worst record; pick was 3rd
2016: Worst record; pick was 1st
2017: 4th worst record; pick was 3rd (traded to BOS for #1 pick)

That's six lottery picks and five times that their ping-pong balls were picked; the one time they didn't get picked was when they had the 11th-worst record in 2013.

Again, I don't have time right now to dig any deeper, and I know this analysis has flaws (like lumping all times getting picked together, whether they got the 1st overall pick or the 4th). I'm just not willing to bobblehead and agree that "oh, the Cavs have had amazing lottery luck!"
 
I’m guessing this means Allen is out for a while longer?
 
1. The lottery ping-pong balls don't have a memory.

2. While I don't have the time now for a deep dive into the probabilities, I'm not convinced that the Cavs' results have been as skewed as you think.

They have had eight lottery picks since 2011. Six have been their own (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2019, and 2020), then they traded for two others (LAC in 2011 and BKN in 2018). Three of those picks improved their position as a result of the lottery (the three #1s); the other five did not. Specifically:

2011: 2nd worst record; pick was 4th
2011: (from LAC) 8th worst record; pick was 1st
2012: tied for 2nd worst record; pick was 4th
2013: 3rd worst record; pick was 1st
2014: 9th worst record; pick was 1st
2018: (from BKN) 8th worst record; pick was 8th
2019: tied for 2nd worst record; pick was 5th
2020: 2nd worst record; pick was 5th

Compare that record to, say, the Sixers:
2010: 6th worst record; pick was 2nd
2011: (not in lottery)
2012: (not in lottery)
2013: tied for 11th-worst record; pick was 11th
2014: 2nd worst record; pick was 3rd
2015: 3rd worst record; pick was 3rd
2016: Worst record; pick was 1st
2017: 4th worst record; pick was 3rd (traded to BOS for #1 pick)

That's six lottery picks and five times that their ping-pong balls were picked; the one time they didn't get picked was when they had the 11th-worst record in 2013.

Again, I don't have time right now to dig any deeper, and I know this analysis has flaws (like lumping all times getting picked together, whether they got the 1st overall pick or the 4th). I'm just not willing to bobblehead and agree that "oh, the Cavs have had amazing lottery luck!"

We won the LeBron James lottery with a 21% chance.

That skews everything.

We’ve drafted #1 overall more than any other franchise - we did trade for 1986 but the rest we earned (Austin) or won the lottery.

We’re beneficiaries of ping pong privilege. Nobody wants to hear beneficiaries of privilege whine about how unfair or unlucky life is (other than rightfully accusing Kevin Durant of being a total bitch for joining GSW).
 
We won the LeBron James lottery with a 21% chance.

That skews everything.

We’ve drafted #1 overall more than any other franchise - we did trade for 1986 but the rest we earned (Austin) or won the lottery.

We’re beneficiaries of ping pong privilege. Nobody wants to hear beneficiaries of privilege whine about how unfair or unlucky life is (other than rightfully accusing Kevin Durant of being a total bitch for joining GSW).
I think the biggest thing to take away from @AllforOne's post is that the ping pong balls do not have a memory. Our odds this year are independent of past results.

Regardless of whether you think we've been lucky or unlucky in the past has no bearing on what will happen this year.
 
We won the LeBron James lottery with a 21% chance.

That skews everything.

We’ve drafted #1 overall more than any other franchise - we did trade for 1986 but the rest we earned (Austin) or won the lottery.

We’re beneficiaries of ping pong privilege. Nobody wants to hear beneficiaries of privilege whine about how unfair or unlucky life is (other than rightfully accusing Kevin Durant of being a total bitch for joining GSW).
1. Traded for 2011 as well (and paid north of $30 million for that bite at the apple).

2. Nobody's whining about fairness. The fair is a place where they have a ferris wheel and sell elephant ears, nothing more. You picked the wrong world if you want "fair." I'm simply challenging your (and others) assumption that the Cavs have had some unbelievable run of lottery luck. By the numbers, I'm not convinced that's the case.
 
I’m guessing this means Allen is out for a while longer?

I think after seeing what Wade and Love have done together to help space the floor. The front office most likely wants to see if they can find a stretch 5 to help round out the roster.

The spacing has really helped Sexton, Garland, and Okoro. If they can find a stretch 5 that should help keep Nance, Wade, and Love from logging heavy minutes at center which will hopefully keep them healthy.
 
I think we have had poor lottery luck as after Lebron we never got the best guy in the class at 1. Winning in 2011 wasn't our good luck it was the Clippers bad luck. Winning #1 in 2013 was bad luck. Would have been better off picking 5, although I guess Bennett would have still been there lol. Would have rather had it the year earlier and gotten Davis. Bad luck in 2014 because Embiid was the pick and he had a broken foot.

I mean Kyrie, Embiid, Lebron or Kyrie, Davis, Lebron? They would all still be here if that had happened.

I even think Lamelo was the clear #1 this year. Not having a clear #1 in 13 and 14 was bad luck IMO.

Kevin Love at #1 was ok, but I wanted Embiid so so bad.
 
1. Traded for 2011 as well (and paid north of $30 million for that bite at the apple).

2. Nobody's whining about fairness. The fair is a place where they have a ferris wheel and sell elephant ears, nothing more. You picked the wrong world if you want "fair." I'm simply challenging your (and others) assumption that the Cavs have had some unbelievable run of lottery luck. By the numbers, I'm not convinced that's the case.
1. We didn’t trade for #1. We traded for the Clips pick which was drawn #1. That’s in contrast to 1986 when the dumbfuq Sixers traded the #1 after the lottery for Hinson and 800 boxes of ziti. Our own pick was unlucky to not land top three but hitting on that Clips pick was a long shot, as was winning back-to-back in 2013-14.

2. We‘ve had some posters complain about changing the lottery system for reasons of fairness (not so much in this thread). I agree fairness isn’t the issue, but I don’t accept the complaints about poor lottery luck just because of the past three years. I’m saying, overall, we won four lotteries in twelve years including the most important one in the history of the NBA by far.

It was hilarious reading comments from fans in places like NY saying the NBA rigged the lottery in favor of Cleveland. Yeah, because Cleveland has that kind of market leverage.
 

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