2020-21 Offseason Discussion

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jup

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If they do go to the larger bases I'll bet the number of steal attempts goes up by a lot more than 0.4%, which would equate to one more attempt per 235 attempts.

I'm sure teams can easily go back and review the replays of each stolen base attempt the previous season and determine how many of the outs would have been safe with an extra 4.5". It may not be that many. In 2019, for example, the Indians stole 103 bases and were caught 35 times. There might have been only five times where the runner was out by less than 4". That's about the length of a player's fingers, or if he slides feet first, one-third the length of his foot.

If the team concludes that the shorter basepath wouldn't have made a difference in 30 out of 35 cases, then they probably won't change their strategy at all.
Depends on the score and the inning.

Late in close games would be the ticket and the shorter base paths would definitely change their strategy. You are talking a lot more late game drama at the very least.
 
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Depends on the score and the inning.

Late in close games would be the ticket and the shorter base paths would definitely change their strategy. You are talking a lot more late game drama at the very least.
But we're only talking about 4.5 inches. If the Indians review their 35 failed stolen base attempts from 2019 and find out that only four times would the runner have been safe if he had 4.5 more inches, then we're looking at a success rate of 77.5% instead of 76.3%. IOW, about a 1.2% greater chance of success. I don't think that would be enough to change a red light to green.
 

jup

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But we're only talking about 4.5 inches. If the Indians review their 35 failed stolen base attempts from 2019 and find out that only four times would the runner have been safe if he had 4.5 more inches, then we're looking at a success rate of 77.5% instead of 76.3%. IOW, about a 1.2% greater chance of success. I don't think that would be enough to change a red light to green.
Well it remains to be seen if the rule even makes it to the big leagues. Until then I guess we will just disagree.

Where it will show up is late in a close game, because it is all about another win versus a loss. If that shorter distance has the manager feeling a pinch runner has a greater opportunity to make it, he is putting him in and running him. Because the other option (not getting him in scoring position) has a much worse probability as far as an outcome. And 1.2% greater chance are not - if it equates to the possibility of a win, you take that option every time.

Neither of us know how many would have been safe, the Indians will if the rule ever comes their way, but from watching a lot of baseball and thinking about the replays I have seen, I would say if it isn't closer than 4.5" it wouldn't even have gone to replay except for coming off the bag plays. Because being out by 4.5" is a mile and easily discerned by the naked eye.
 

WhoAzcue

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Now, if the top of the bags had velcro...
I'd much rather they address the ability of runners being able to "capture" a base so that stupid out calls via replays which nail guys who use pop up slides or have brief detachments of hands to bodies to feet on slides, but never lose practical possession of the base. These "slivers" of daylight out calls (which were never outs in prior baseball history) prevent the kind of hard baserunning that is enjoyable to watch. It would be a simple matter to write rules to protect runners in such situations, but nooooooo...make the bases bigger. Good grief.
 
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I'd much rather they address the ability of runners being able to "capture" a base so that stupid out calls via replays which nail guys who use pop up slides or have brief detachments of hands to bodies to feet on slides, but never lose practical possession of the base. These "slivers" of daylight out calls (which were never outs in prior baseball history) prevent the kind of hard baserunning that is enjoyable to watch. It would be a simple matter to write rules to protect runners in such situations, but nooooooo...make the bases bigger. Good grief.
Definitely agree with this. If the runner touches the base before being tagged he should be safe as long as he doesn't completely overslide the base with his entire body. That would speed up the game by eliminating two-minute reviews where the umpires look at the play from four different angles to see if the foot came off the bag for a fraction of a second before re-establishing contact.
 

Benway

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Definitely agree with this. If the runner touches the base before being tagged he should be safe as long as he doesn't completely overslide the base with his entire body. That would speed up the game by eliminating two-minute reviews where the umpires look at the play from four different angles to see if the foot came off the bag for a fraction of a second before re-establishing contact.
This can easily be solved through the use of RFID chips!
 

WhoAzcue

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Now, if the top of the bags had velcro...
Actually heard Bob Dibiasio say on the broadcast today that in addition to making the bases larger in Triple A, they are changing their composition so they are "tackier." Either this is true or Bob is gigging his good friend CATS.
 

CATS44

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Bobby D and I go back a long way...lol. (not really)

He's almost as old as dirt, while I AM as old as dirt.

Not sure I like tackier bags. Seem like an injury waiting to happen.
 

macbdog

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Bobby D and I go back a long way...lol. (not really)

He's almost as old as dirt, while I AM as old as dirt.

Not sure I like tackier bags. Seem like an injury waiting to happen.
It's baseball, so the games stories history of stupid injuries will pop up.
 

xmasbuck

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Bobby D and I go back a long way...lol. (not really)

He's almost as old as dirt, while I AM as old as dirt.

Not sure I like tackier bags. Seem like an injury waiting to happen.
they can have the baserunner use an all-velcro uniform - a la dave letterman back in the day
 

DCTribefan

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Injury update from New York Post:
PORT ST. LUCIE — Carlos Carrasco played catch Sunday at the Mets spring training complex, after which he left no ambiguity about his intentions for the start of the season.

“Oh yes, I will be ready,” Carrasco said.

Manager Luis Rojas would prefer to take a more cautious approach with the right-hander, who was shut down from throwing last week after incurring elbow discomfort following a live batting practice session. Even so, Rojas didn’t dismiss the possibility Carrasco would be ready.

Carrasco previously dealt with such soreness in spring training with the Indians and recovered through similar rest. At this point, Rojas will take a wait-and-see approach with Carrasco, who still hasn’t appeared in a Grapefruit League game this spring.
 
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Criznit

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With base enlargement, do you think there is also going to be a slight uptick in the amount of triples scored?
 

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