2020-21 Offseason Discussion

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Beanie4Heisman

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Yes, the names of Yu Chang and Jake Bauers slipped my mind at that late hour.

Did like Chang in the couple of games I caught of him here in Columbus and he seems to hold his own with the glove. His positional flexibility is an asset going forward being able to cover 3B, SS, and 2B.
 

Gson

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Guys like Freeman aren't Rule 5 eligible so they are on the outside looking in to get a position, but guys like Jones, Clement, who are Rule 5, they will have a legit shot to make the roster.

Indians will have a chance to bring in veterans like they always do. So the veterans competing with the young guys and the best 25 out of camp should be the attitude in 21.
One of the most misunderstood parts of professional baseball is roster construction based upon cost / benefit / performance... There have been several 'babe ruth' moments for young prospects during the month of September.. An equal number of Jimmie Foxx and Lou Boudreau moments can be defined and statistically represented by performances during spring training of these same kinds of players.. Baseball uses a simple heirarchy.. Perfomance on the field of play.. is what defines what a player is and how that player is viewed by the front office.. that includes spring.. september and the time in between.... In short, a long and storied history of success will ALWAYS be considered more representative than a hot spring or a few at bats in September.. That's part of the reason why young guys don't always get their shot coming out of spring..

Money matters.. too.. Thoughts?...
 

Gson

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Yes, the names of Yu Chang and Jake Bauers slipped my mind at that late hour.

Did like Chang in the couple of games I caught of him here in Columbus and he seems to hold his own with the glove. His positional flexibility is an asset going forward being able to cover 3B, SS, and 2B.
Chang has an excellent approach and swing.. It's short, powerful and the ball really flies off his bat when (if) he makes contact.. His glove is more than adequate and he might have one of the best position player arms in the Indians minor league system.. It seems like he's been around for a very long time.. and, in baseball parlance.. he has.. He's about at the point where it's time for him to get a chance or get gone.. We'll see..
 

DerekG123

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Chang has an excellent approach and swing.. It's short, powerful and the ball really flies off his bat when (if) he makes contact.. His glove is more than adequate and he might have one of the best position player arms in the Indians minor league system.. It seems like he's been around for a very long time.. and, in baseball parlance.. he has.. He's about at the point where it's time for him to get a chance or get gone.. We'll see..
If the backup job is between him or Freeman then it's time to just give it too him.
 

sportscoach

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If Lindor is traded, Hernandez isn't resigned then 2B and SS will be available. Guys like Miller, Chang, T. Freeman, Clement, plus a veteran or two (that are invited) will get a chance to get the everyday spot. Now only Chang is on the 40 man at the moment and Clement (in my mind) is on the short list to make the 40 man.

From that list, Mike Freeman will likely be back as the utility guy (all right handers between the 2B and SS candidates)
 

MadThinker88

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If Lindor is traded, Hernandez isn't resigned then 2B and SS will be available. Guys like Miller, Chang, T. Freeman, Clement, plus a veteran or two (that are invited) will get a chance to get the everyday spot. Now only Chang is on the 40 man at the moment and Clement (in my mind) is on the short list to make the 40 man.

From that list, Mike Freeman will likely be back as the utility guy (all right handers between the 2B and SS candidates)
I understand why people like Ernie Clement but I think the Tribe will only protect 1 of Gabriel Arias (acquired in Clevinger trade) & Clement. If it comes down to 1 or the other I suspect the Tribe will protect Arias...
 

CDAV45

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Well, I think your assumption that Daniel Johnson would be better than Naquin is just plain wrong. Johnson and DeShields don't play the same position so there isn't a comparison to be made-- FWIW, I wish they did play the same position but it's clear the Indians think DeShields is a glove-first, plus defending CFer and don't care as much about the bat at that position. Johnson not being an average or better defender in CF and not likely to hit lefties means he's a corner OF in this organization.

Further, Naquin had a career .793 OPS going into this season. That makes him a 2nd tier, middle of the pack, everyday RF. His career averages would've ranked him 12th amongst qualified RF this season in the MLB-- in the mix with guys like Nick Castellanos, Mark Canha, Charlie Blackmon, Whit Merrifield and Max Kepler. So what on EARTH are you talking about when you're calling him terrible and mediocre? Yeah, he had a bad year and didn't live up to his career averages but there's a pretty solid track record there that you seem to be ignoring or discounting for some odd reason.

We're just gonna have to agree to disagree on this because you're making it seem like the Indians are keeping Mike Trout in minors with regards to Daniel Johnson and I'm fairly certain that isn't the case. Sorry I see the value in a solid veteran player....

I also love the assumptions you're making about my philosophies on baseball and my thoughts on young and old players. You must be new around here.... I was the only one beating the drum for Jose Ramirez to keep his roster spot on the big club a few years ago when he was a struggling nobody and I took a beating for it.
Good Lord! Now you're the one putting words in my mouth. I never said that Johnson would be better than Naquin. I said that his ceiling is much higher, that he is a better athlete, and that he stands a chance of out performing Naquin. Seeing how Naquin has performed, or not able to perform then I'm absolutely correct. If you think Naquin is in the same realm as Castellanos, Canha, Blackmon, Merrifield, and Kepler then whoever you coach for sure fire you immediately because you have no idea what you're talking about. I've said countless times that Naquin is average, mediocre, run of the mill because that's what he is and will always be. I've also stated that these average, mediocre, run of the mill types aren't going to put this team over the top. In fact, I stated that they will not win a division crown because the days of cruising through the AL Central are over bud. Even with this pitching staff.

Johnson and DeShields have played the same position. DeShields cannot play a corner OF because his arm is a wet noodle and he literally has 0 power. However, Johnson has and can play CF and brings a helluva lot more to the table.

I've also specifically stated that I don't think Johnson is the next coming of Mike Trout so you can redact that stupid comment.

You were correct in "beating the drum for Jose Ramirez to keep his roster spot" and that should be the exact reason we find some common ground on this matter, but yet here you are taking the exact opposite approach. SMH!
 

Gson

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I understand why people like Ernie Clement but I think the Tribe will only protect 1 of Gabriel Arias (acquired in Clevinger trade) & Clement. If it comes down to 1 or the other I suspect the Tribe will protect Arias...
easy call.. EC isn't what you'd call a prospect.. good roster guy..
 

EdMonix11

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Good Lord! Now you're the one putting words in my mouth. I never said that Johnson would be better than Naquin. I said that his ceiling is much higher, that he is a better athlete, and that he stands a chance of out performing Naquin. Seeing how Naquin has performed, or not able to perform then I'm absolutely correct.
How am I putting words in your mouth after reading what you wrote below this?

If you think Naquin is in the same realm as Castellanos, Canha, Blackmon, Merrifield, and Kepler then whoever you coach for sure fire you immediately because you have no idea what you're talking about.
That's a pretty shitty thing to say to someone in this economic climate. Plenty of my friends and colleagues have lost their jobs recently and are struggling to make ends meet. I'm all for arguing different view points but you've now made multiple comments now that have been personally attacking in nature. If you can't argue with facts and reason then you shouldn't be posting here.

FWIW, Naquin's career OPS going into last year is higher than Max Kepler's right now. Almost the exact same as Nick Castellanos. Higher than Mark Canha's. Higher than Whit Merrifield's. And much lower than Charlie Blackmon's.

Just curious, how are you measuring these outfielders in a way where Naquin isn't in the same realm then?

I've said countless times that Naquin is average, mediocre, run of the mill because that's what he is and will always be. I've also stated that these average, mediocre, run of the mill types aren't going to put this team over the top. In fact, I stated that they will not win a division crown because the days of cruising through the AL Central are over bud. Even with this pitching staff.
I've posted stats that disprove your notion that Naquin is average, mediocre or run of the mill. I think it's unrealistic to think any team in the MLB, besides the Dodgers, can trot out a star player at every position.

Johnson and DeShields have played the same position. DeShields cannot play a corner OF because his arm is a wet noodle and he literally has 0 power. However, Johnson has and can play CF and brings a helluva lot more to the table.
How many innings has Johnson played in CF vs. a Corner OF position in professional baseball?
 
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sportscoach

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easy call.. EC isn't what you'd call a prospect.. good roster guy..
Francona is high on Clement from what I can tell when asked about him in spring training. Its a very good probability we will lose him in the Rule 5 if he isnt protected. More guys than normal will likely be cut/non-tendered, which says in the realm of backup/utility infielders getting cut will be high and someone will take Clement. We traded Mathias last season before he could become rule 5 and I feel Clement is the better player of the two. I always felt he was our utility guy in the future. Plus he did play OF some in college. He wasn't a SS until he got to the Cleveland organization, and is a very good 2B. From what I can see he will be added to the roster. Not sure if @BimboColesHair has time to comment on Clement or anyone else who has more of an inside track on the Indians or not.
 

CDAV45

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How am I putting words in your mouth after reading what you wrote below this?
Because I didn't say what you said I said?

That's a pretty shitty thing to say to someone in this economic climate. Plenty of my friends and colleagues have lost their jobs recently and are struggling to make ends meet. I'm all for arguing different view points but you've now made multiple comments now that have been personally attacking in nature. If you can't argue with facts and reason then you shouldn't be posting here.
Every comparison I've given you has been provided with statistical data. I certainly hope all of your friends and colleagues get their jobs back. So your main income is from coaching?

FWIW, Naquin's career OPS going into last year is higher than Max Kepler's right now. Almost the exact same as Nick Castellanos. Higher than Mark Canha's. Higher than Whit Merrifield's. And much lower than Charlie Blackmon's.
Naquin and Keplar's careers are going in opposite directions. Here's each player's OPS+ for their MLB careers(going backward). I removed any season with less than 100 AB:
Naquin 68, 103, 76, 128
Kepler 108, 123, 97, 95, 96
Castellanos 102, 153, 105, 122, 128
Canha 126, 146, 114, 73, 105


Just curious, how are you measuring these outfielders in a way where Naquin isn't in the same realm then?
By just about every measurable stat. I can't believe you would even make such comparisons. It's lunacy to be honest.

I've posted stats that disprove your notion that Naquin is average, mediocre or run of the mill. I think it's unrealistic to think any team in the MLB, besides the Dodgers, can trot out a star player at every position.
No.......you haven't. I'm not, nor have I ever mentioned anything about trotting out a star player in every position. Again, words in my mouth that I never said. I have stated that I would rather see a talented, young, unproven player with a high ceiling over mediocre talent like Naquin and DeShields in starting roles. That's not to say they don't have a place in MLB because they do.

How many innings has Johnson played in CF vs. a Corner OF position in professional baseball?
I've explained this using quotes from coaches and scouts, but go ahead and keep on keeping on.
 

sportscoach

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How am I putting words in your mouth after reading what you wrote below this?


That's a pretty shitty thing to say to someone in this economic climate. Plenty of my friends and colleagues have lost their jobs recently and are struggling to make ends meet. I'm all for arguing different view points but you've now made multiple comments now that have been personally attacking in nature. If you can't argue with facts and reason then you shouldn't be posting here.

FWIW, Naquin's career OPS going into last year is higher than Max Kepler's right now. Almost the exact same as Nick Castellanos. Higher than Mark Canha's. Higher than Whit Merrifield's. And much lower than Charlie Blackmon's.

Just curious, how are you measuring these outfielders in a way where Naquin isn't in the same realm then?


I've posted stats that disprove your notion that Naquin is average, mediocre or run of the mill. I think it's unrealistic to think any team in the MLB, besides the Dodgers, can trot out a star player at every position.


How many innings has Johnson played in CF vs. a Corner OF position in professional baseball?
@CDAV45 as well

I am siding with Edmonix on the Naquin argument at the end of the day. We have no reason to nontender him.

Plus I am looking at basic stats for Johnson on his fielding. I will compare basic stats (aka from the minors to pro average). From what I can tell, his range factor (via baseball reference) is 2.2/2.02 in CF while the league average is around 2.5-2.6 in CF. So that tells me he can play CF, but he is below average at best in his range, plus he does make more errors out there than normal (Fld% .977 to league average of around .989) Now his range factor in RF is 2.09/1.91 and the league average is at 2.05-2.1/2.0 so his range factor says, he is at least average in RF, Fld% of .979 to .985% being the league average)

The next factor in my mind is why Johnson is a RF not a CF. He has 3 assists in the minors with 1200 area innings in CF while in RF he has 25 assists in 1600 innings. Why would any team play Johnson in CF normally with below average range and a way above average arm?

I am not against Johnson playing CF, but his basic stats state to me RF he is an asset to the team while in CF, he is just a AAAA player on the defensive end. If I am a coach and I have a better CF defensively I am playing that guy.

Also AA is more pitcher friendly league while AAA is more hitter friendly. So I look at AA to see what he did. Johnson has a slash of .263/.326/.446 as AA. In my mind in 2020 though he did do a better job of taking some more walks, but his SOs are high. So if I was making a projection for a full season from Johnson right now I'd go more of a .250/.310/.430 slash area. 30-40 BBs, 120 SOs, 15 HRs, 25 2Bs, 15-20 SBs.
 

CDAV45

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Francona is high on Clement from what I can tell when asked about him in spring training. Its a very good probability we will lose him in the Rule 5 if he isnt protected. More guys than normal will likely be cut/non-tendered, which says in the realm of backup/utility infielders getting cut will be high and someone will take Clement. We traded Mathias last season before he could become rule 5 and I feel Clement is the better player of the two. I always felt he was our utility guy in the future. Plus he did play OF some in college. He wasn't a SS until he got to the Cleveland organization, and is a very good 2B. From what I can see he will be added to the roster. Not sure if @BimboColesHair has time to comment on Clement or anyone else who has more of an inside track on the Indians or not.
I think if Clement is more valuable than Mathias it's due to Clement's ability to play some SS. Their minor league hitting careers are sort of similar. Clement will hit for a bit more average while Mathias has more power and gets on base slightly better. 279/336/351/688 compared to 258/352/398/750. I don't view either as necessary players, but they could carve out a niche in MLB.
 

sportscoach

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Also @CDAV45

None of us are against Johnson taking over RF, but he needs to earn it from by taking it away from Naquin. If Johnson is better than Naquin, he will take the position. In the best 25 out of camp scenario, if Johnson is better than he will get it. Naquin will be on the roster in 21, his price tag isn't high enough vs potential production to let him go. In my mind you are underrating Naquin and overvaluing Johnson at this current moment.

Also the ops predicting of .740 for Johnson is below the .760 for Naquins career. I am actually thinking a predict around .780 for OPS for Naquin next season as well. I really feel the numbers he put up in 19, will be his normal numbers if healthy.

I think if Clement is more valuable than Mathias it's due to Clement's ability to play some SS. Their minor league hitting careers are sort of similar. Clement will hit for a bit more average while Mathias has more power and gets on base slightly better. 279/336/351/688 compared to 258/352/398/750. I don't view either as necessary players, but they could carve out a niche in MLB.
Clement is Rule 5 Eligible in 2021, so in my mind he needs to be protected otherwise we lose him. Plus we are transitioning to the younger guys, so why not give him a shot at making this roster. Idk I just have a hunch he will stay in the bigs once he is given a shot.

Also I think Mathias will be an OF in Milwaukee. They barely played him in the INF last season.
 

CDAV45

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@CDAV45 as well

I am siding with Edmonix on the Naquin argument at the end of the day. We have no reason to nontender him.
There is absolutely a reason to nontender him. I don't know how you could even find solid ground to argue from that point. Look, I don't care if they nontender him or keep him, what I'm saying is that he and DeShields should not be in starting roles. Certainly they both have purposes to serve in MLB, but if our OF consists of DeShields in CF and Naquin in RF next season then the results will be the same. They are average ball players for the umpteenth time.

Plus I am looking at basic stats for Johnson on his fielding. I will compare basic stats (aka from the minors to pro average). From what I can tell, his range factor (via baseball reference) is 2.2/2.02 in CF while the league average is around 2.5-2.6 in CF. So that tells me he can play CF, but he is below average at best in his range, plus he does make more errors out there than normal (Fld% .977 to league average of around .989) Now his range factor in RF is 2.09/1.91 and the league average is at 2.05-2.1/2.0 so his range factor says, he is at least average in RF, Fld% of .979 to .985% being the league average)
Below average range? Where did you find that info? He covers over 30ft/sec and is one of the faster OFers in the system. He's played RF mostly because of his incredible arm strength, but he's also played CF and continues to play some CF. He been legitimately clocked at over 100 mph on throws. So I agree with you that he has played mostly RF because of that arm strength. Look, we can argue until the cows come home about how good Johnson's defense is. The point is that he is not a liability, and I guaranf'nT you that he can play a better CF than DeShields did this year.

The next factor in my mind is why Johnson is a RF not a CF. He has 3 assists in the minors with 1200 area innings in CF while in RF he has 25 assists in 1600 innings. Why would any team play Johnson in CF normally with below average range and a way above average arm?
One would really have to dive into the numbers to find the legitimacy of your conclusion based on these stats. They can be very circumstantial is what I'm saying. Is he slower in CF than in RF? Is his arm weaker in CF than in RF? Where were the balls hit?

I am not against Johnson playing CF, but his basic stats state to me RF he is an asset to the team while in CF, he is just a AAAA player on the defensive end. If I am a coach and I have a better CF defensively I am playing that guy.
I absolutely agree with you here. The question is who is a better defensive CF that can hit? If Mercado can get back to his 2019 form then by all means put Johnson in RF.

Also AA is more pitcher friendly league while AAA is more hitter friendly. So I look at AA to see what he did. Johnson has a slash of .263/.326/.446 as AA. In my mind in 2020 though he did do a better job of taking some more walks, but his SOs are high. So if I was making a projection for a full season from Johnson right now I'd go more of a .250/.310/.430 slash area. 30-40 BBs, 120 SOs, 15 HRs, 25 2Bs, 15-20 SBs.
I'm looking at Johnson's time in Akron last year and he slashed 253/337/534/872. He got promoted quickly and performed as well or even better 306/371/496/867. Trying to make a case that the promotion to AAA somehow skewed his excellent season is simply not true. If you look at his time in AA in both 2018 and 2019 you see the natural progression of a good player as he physically matures. He never really struggled in what many call the most difficult jump in the minors. Your projection isn't terrible, but I don't think it's accurate and here's why. You can expect to see a dip in average. His average last season was 290 so I'll go along with 250, but that is a bit low IMO. 260 is what I would project. His OBP last season was 361 and your forecast of 310 is a bit harsh. I'd go with 325. Now we get into where I really disagree with you. I find it difficult to believe that a young, maturing player whose slugging percentage has done nothing but steadily increase as he matures is going to decrease that severely. Power doesn't decrease for a player in his mid 20's, especially one with Johnson's plus power.
 

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