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2020-21 Offseason Discussion
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Hot off the press - just yesterday by Meisel
Francisco Lindor trade options: Surveying the teams that could make a deal
By Zack Meisel Oct 27, 2020 88
CLEVELAND — As they nudged their way into wild-card contention, the Indians hosted the Phillies one Sunday evening in late September 2019. Carlos Carrasco induced a pivotal double play that night, and his facial reaction from that moment is etched into the webbing of his red glove.
The Indians ambushed the Phillies with a barrage of late-inning runs as they breezed to a 10-1 victory before jetting off on a road trip to close out the regular season.
Who would have figured — especially considering he wasn’t traded last winter — that that Sunday-night affair might be Francisco Lindor’s final home game in front of Cleveland’s fans?
The Indians fell short in their bid for a wild-card berth. The pandemic wiped out the notion of fans attending games in 2020. And now, Lindor enters the offseason as perhaps the most likely trade candidate in the sport. It seems as though it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll be dealt this winter as the Indians try to recoup some young talent in exchange for a guy who’s bound for free agency in a year.
For a generational talent at a premium position, for a guy who spent all season talking about turning pages and scripting new chapters, this is far from a storybook ending for Lindor in Cleveland.
It’s a shame that a perennial All-Star shortstop with a smile that every team would dream of plastering on every billboard and TV commercial won’t wind up spending his entire career with the franchise fortunate enough to draft him, but here we are. There’s no optimism that the two sides will strike a long-term agreement, and there has never been any indication that contract negotiations over the years — the most recent taking place this past spring — have been productive.
So, there will be plenty of trade dialogue over the coming weeks as teams enter into a nuclear winter. But there will also be complications in completing the sort of deal the Indians front office has wanted.
Owners across the league will guard their checking accounts with more rigor than ever. For some teams, even the idea of paying Lindor a salary north of $20 million for 2021 will prompt a Dikembe Mutombo finger wag from the top boss.
Teams don’t know Lindor’s magic number, so until they execute a trade and meet with him, they have to consider him a one-year rental. The Dodgers were able to convince Mookie Betts to sign a long-term extension a few months before he reached free agency ($365 million can be awfully persuasive). Lindor has said he’ll sign for the right price, but he has never revealed what that price is. He has, however, suggested that the Indians have never offered him $300 million or more.
Will a team overpay for Lindor now because it’s confident it can talk Lindor into staying for the next decade? Will teams be hesitant to part with much of anything because they consider Lindor strictly a rental, he had an uninspiring 2020 season and he’s in line to earn a hefty chunk of change in 2021?
The Indians certainly don’t have as much leverage as they did last winter. Theoretically, they could hang onto him, but then they’d run the risk of dealing him next summer with even less leverage — or, worse, letting him walk a year from now, leaving Chris Antonetti to don an “I drafted, developed and marveled at Francisco Lindor for a decade, and all I got in return was a draft pick” T-shirt.
So which team would be the perfect match for a trade? Let’s consult our band of beat writers from The Athletic to better understand the perspectives of the teams that might consider a deal for Lindor.
For this exercise, we excluded teams that that probably wouldn’t want to pay Lindor in 2021 (let alone 2022-2030); teams that probably don’t plan to contend in 2021 or have no business parting with young talent; and teams that don’t have a pressing need at shortstop. We also excluded the White Sox and Twins because even though Antonetti has stressed that he has no issue trading within the division, dealing Lindor to a direct competitor would seem counterproductive. (Also, they aren’t mentioned below since they’re still, well, playing, but the Dodgers are always contenders to trade for premier talent. And while the Marlins seem like the sort of up-and-comer to build around a player like Lindor, our Miami experts are skeptical that the club would relinquish much for him now without a guarantee he’d stick around for the long haul.)
New York Mets
ZM: Tim, would the Mets have any interest in trading for Lindor this winter? Might the new owner want to make a big splash? The Indians are seeking young talent, especially on the position-player side. Could there be a match?
Tim Britton: Sure. For the first time in a long time, pretty much anything is on the table for New York this winter, and dealing for a proven superstar like Lindor at a premium position would constitute a big splash. The Mets have pieces that could entice Cleveland in Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario and a host of intriguing position-player prospects a couple of years away. Consolidating several good players into one great one is often a good idea.
Whether the Mets pursue Lindor really comes down to what they view as their core beyond 2021. Shortstop is not a need here and now; Giménez and Rosario each have a chance to be decent there on inexpensive salaries the next few seasons. You can make a strong case the Mets’ best avenue for improvement is just spending on the open market to fill their more pressing weaknesses at catcher, center field and in the starting rotation. But if they view Lindor as the available piece most likely to age properly with their current core, he may be worth the cost in talent and long-term money.
Los Angeles Angels
ZM: Fabian, these teams have engaged in trade dialogue in recent years, so there’s familiarity. Could there be a match?
Fabian Ardaya: It’ll be interesting to see what the priorities of the new Angels front office are. But ownership loves its stars. While they do appear to need a middle infielder, they should feel reasonably comfortable with David Fletcher at either second base or shortstop. The Angels do have young position-player talent both at the top levels of the minors in Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones, but also in the lower levels in a Jordyn Adams, Jeremiah Jackson or Kyren Paris.
ZM: Is it safe to assume the Angels would be even more intrigued if the Indians attached a pitcher (especially a starting pitcher) to Lindor?
FA: Absolutely. The Angels are going to need pitching this winter no matter what. The only concern at that point would be if the club has enough to trade without including a younger piece who may have already debuted, like Luis Rengifo, Patrick Sandoval or, depending on the quality of the pitcher they get back, Jo Adell.
ZM: Adell would be their dream.
FA: Yeah, I think it would take a lot for them to move him, even after he struggled in the big leagues in 2020. Their outfield picture is still shaped to have Adell prominently in it. But then again, we don’t know the modus operandi of the next top baseball executive. If they’re more aggressive with moving prospects (see: Dave Dombrowski), then that picture might change.
The Indians would be ecstatic to get a prospect like Angels outfielder Jo Adell in a deal for Francisco Lindor, but Cleveland might have to include a starting pitcher to sweeten the pot. (Angels Baseball / Pool Photo via USA Today)
New York Yankees
ZM: Lindsey, would the Yankees have any interest in trading for Lindor this winter?
Lindsey Adler: The Yankees have a lot of thinking (and negotiating) to do regarding their infield. Gleyber Torres had a fairly rough first year at shortstop, but moving him back to second base would mean that the position would be blocked if (when) they attempt to re-sign DJ LeMahieu. Lindor is a player worth figuring that out for, however, and an upgrade on that level would be a game-changer. The Yankees have been notably conservative in the trade market over the last couple of seasons. They may really need their top pitching prospects, and Clint Frazier has probably finally earned himself a job. But Miguel Andújar, if the Indians want a possible LFer/DH type, wants to be traded.
Atlanta Braves
ZM: David, the Indians would love one of Atlanta’s young center fielders. Would the Braves want Lindor?
David O’Brien: I can’t see it. Dansby Swanson has really made strides and they love him here, as he’s a local guy and a fan favorite. (And he was just named a Gold Glove finalist.) A year ago, it might’ve made a little more sense.
Cincinnati Reds
ZM: Trent, these teams know each other well. Would the Reds be willing to move any young position-player talent the Indians are seeking?
C. Trent Rosecrans: Well, the Reds certainly have a need at shortstop, and you would certainly have to consider Francisco Lindor an upgrade. So, would the Reds have interest? You’re damn right they would.
The question is if they can afford it — in both types of capital, the monetary capital and the prospect capital. The former we don’t know about; only the team does. GM Nick Krall has said the team intends to pursue Trevor Bauer in free agency. It seems to be a stretch for both Bauer and Lindor to fit into the budget.
But what would the team give up? Its top prospects are pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. If you’re looking for position players, it seems unlikely that they’d give up their long-term solution at the position, José García, in a package for a rental. After that, there’s draft pick Austin Hendrick, catcher Tyler Stephenson and infielder Jonathan India. Stephenson showed enough to garner interest, but he is also the team’s future at the position. Hendrick is unknown, and if Cleveland valued India that highly, he may already be there.
So, would the Reds be interested in Lindor? Sure.
Would Cleveland be interested in what the Reds have to offer? That’s a better question.
Philadelphia Phillies
ZM: Meghan, would the Phillies make any sense as a suitor for Lindor?
Meghan Montemurro: I’m not sure the Phillies have the prospect capital to acquire him. Their two best young players — RHP Spencer Howard and 3B/1B Alec Bohm — are both guys they’re counting on in 2021 and beyond both performance-wise and because they’ll only cost league-minimum salary. Beyond them, their farm system is in the bottom third in the majors. Part of the reason general manager Matt Klentak was demoted after five seasons at the helm was because of a failure to draft and develop talent. Positionally, they can move Jean Segura or Scott Kingery back to shortstop, so they don’t necessarily have a huge need.
Phillies managing partner John Middleton said after the season that, essentially, he wouldn’t have OK’d the J.T. Realmuto trade back in Feb. 2019 if the front office wasn’t confident they were going to re-sign him. I’m skeptical he would give the OK for another star player on a short-term deal on top of the expectation that the Phillies are cutting payroll this offseason for 2021. Regardless, I imagine Cleveland could get a better return elsewhere than from Philadelphia.
Toronto Blue Jays
ZM: Kaitlyn, would the Blue Jays have any interest in trading for Lindor this winter? Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins are certainly familiar with him. Toronto has plenty of young talent (especially on the position-player side), which is what the Indians are seeking. Could there be a match?
Kaitlyn McGrath: The Blue Jays front office is interested in improving their club and, with defence a glaring team weakness, Lindor would help. The familiarity between the clubs probably means Atkins would do his due diligence and check-in. That said, there’s still faith in Bo Bichette growing into an All-Star shortstop. The hang-up here, I think, is Lindor’s free agency. The Blue Jays are still a club growing into contention, and a deal for Lindor would probably need to involve an extension.
ZM: Cavan Biggio seems like someone the Indians would covet, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Teoscar Hernández would satisfy their outfield needs.
KM: Of Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bichette and Biggio, Biggio is probably the most moveable, but they really like him. I’d say it’s unlikely he’s moved but not impossible. Gurriel would make a good match since he’s an outfielder who can hit. He’s not as controllable as Biggio, though.
Francisco Lindor trade options: Surveying the teams that could make a deal
By Zack Meisel Oct 27, 2020 88
CLEVELAND — As they nudged their way into wild-card contention, the Indians hosted the Phillies one Sunday evening in late September 2019. Carlos Carrasco induced a pivotal double play that night, and his facial reaction from that moment is etched into the webbing of his red glove.
The Indians ambushed the Phillies with a barrage of late-inning runs as they breezed to a 10-1 victory before jetting off on a road trip to close out the regular season.
Who would have figured — especially considering he wasn’t traded last winter — that that Sunday-night affair might be Francisco Lindor’s final home game in front of Cleveland’s fans?
The Indians fell short in their bid for a wild-card berth. The pandemic wiped out the notion of fans attending games in 2020. And now, Lindor enters the offseason as perhaps the most likely trade candidate in the sport. It seems as though it’s a foregone conclusion that he’ll be dealt this winter as the Indians try to recoup some young talent in exchange for a guy who’s bound for free agency in a year.
For a generational talent at a premium position, for a guy who spent all season talking about turning pages and scripting new chapters, this is far from a storybook ending for Lindor in Cleveland.
It’s a shame that a perennial All-Star shortstop with a smile that every team would dream of plastering on every billboard and TV commercial won’t wind up spending his entire career with the franchise fortunate enough to draft him, but here we are. There’s no optimism that the two sides will strike a long-term agreement, and there has never been any indication that contract negotiations over the years — the most recent taking place this past spring — have been productive.
So, there will be plenty of trade dialogue over the coming weeks as teams enter into a nuclear winter. But there will also be complications in completing the sort of deal the Indians front office has wanted.
Owners across the league will guard their checking accounts with more rigor than ever. For some teams, even the idea of paying Lindor a salary north of $20 million for 2021 will prompt a Dikembe Mutombo finger wag from the top boss.
Teams don’t know Lindor’s magic number, so until they execute a trade and meet with him, they have to consider him a one-year rental. The Dodgers were able to convince Mookie Betts to sign a long-term extension a few months before he reached free agency ($365 million can be awfully persuasive). Lindor has said he’ll sign for the right price, but he has never revealed what that price is. He has, however, suggested that the Indians have never offered him $300 million or more.
Will a team overpay for Lindor now because it’s confident it can talk Lindor into staying for the next decade? Will teams be hesitant to part with much of anything because they consider Lindor strictly a rental, he had an uninspiring 2020 season and he’s in line to earn a hefty chunk of change in 2021?
The Indians certainly don’t have as much leverage as they did last winter. Theoretically, they could hang onto him, but then they’d run the risk of dealing him next summer with even less leverage — or, worse, letting him walk a year from now, leaving Chris Antonetti to don an “I drafted, developed and marveled at Francisco Lindor for a decade, and all I got in return was a draft pick” T-shirt.
So which team would be the perfect match for a trade? Let’s consult our band of beat writers from The Athletic to better understand the perspectives of the teams that might consider a deal for Lindor.
For this exercise, we excluded teams that that probably wouldn’t want to pay Lindor in 2021 (let alone 2022-2030); teams that probably don’t plan to contend in 2021 or have no business parting with young talent; and teams that don’t have a pressing need at shortstop. We also excluded the White Sox and Twins because even though Antonetti has stressed that he has no issue trading within the division, dealing Lindor to a direct competitor would seem counterproductive. (Also, they aren’t mentioned below since they’re still, well, playing, but the Dodgers are always contenders to trade for premier talent. And while the Marlins seem like the sort of up-and-comer to build around a player like Lindor, our Miami experts are skeptical that the club would relinquish much for him now without a guarantee he’d stick around for the long haul.)
New York Mets
ZM: Tim, would the Mets have any interest in trading for Lindor this winter? Might the new owner want to make a big splash? The Indians are seeking young talent, especially on the position-player side. Could there be a match?
Tim Britton: Sure. For the first time in a long time, pretty much anything is on the table for New York this winter, and dealing for a proven superstar like Lindor at a premium position would constitute a big splash. The Mets have pieces that could entice Cleveland in Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario and a host of intriguing position-player prospects a couple of years away. Consolidating several good players into one great one is often a good idea.
Whether the Mets pursue Lindor really comes down to what they view as their core beyond 2021. Shortstop is not a need here and now; Giménez and Rosario each have a chance to be decent there on inexpensive salaries the next few seasons. You can make a strong case the Mets’ best avenue for improvement is just spending on the open market to fill their more pressing weaknesses at catcher, center field and in the starting rotation. But if they view Lindor as the available piece most likely to age properly with their current core, he may be worth the cost in talent and long-term money.
Los Angeles Angels
ZM: Fabian, these teams have engaged in trade dialogue in recent years, so there’s familiarity. Could there be a match?
Fabian Ardaya: It’ll be interesting to see what the priorities of the new Angels front office are. But ownership loves its stars. While they do appear to need a middle infielder, they should feel reasonably comfortable with David Fletcher at either second base or shortstop. The Angels do have young position-player talent both at the top levels of the minors in Brandon Marsh and Jahmai Jones, but also in the lower levels in a Jordyn Adams, Jeremiah Jackson or Kyren Paris.
ZM: Is it safe to assume the Angels would be even more intrigued if the Indians attached a pitcher (especially a starting pitcher) to Lindor?
FA: Absolutely. The Angels are going to need pitching this winter no matter what. The only concern at that point would be if the club has enough to trade without including a younger piece who may have already debuted, like Luis Rengifo, Patrick Sandoval or, depending on the quality of the pitcher they get back, Jo Adell.
ZM: Adell would be their dream.
FA: Yeah, I think it would take a lot for them to move him, even after he struggled in the big leagues in 2020. Their outfield picture is still shaped to have Adell prominently in it. But then again, we don’t know the modus operandi of the next top baseball executive. If they’re more aggressive with moving prospects (see: Dave Dombrowski), then that picture might change.
The Indians would be ecstatic to get a prospect like Angels outfielder Jo Adell in a deal for Francisco Lindor, but Cleveland might have to include a starting pitcher to sweeten the pot. (Angels Baseball / Pool Photo via USA Today)
New York Yankees
ZM: Lindsey, would the Yankees have any interest in trading for Lindor this winter?
Lindsey Adler: The Yankees have a lot of thinking (and negotiating) to do regarding their infield. Gleyber Torres had a fairly rough first year at shortstop, but moving him back to second base would mean that the position would be blocked if (when) they attempt to re-sign DJ LeMahieu. Lindor is a player worth figuring that out for, however, and an upgrade on that level would be a game-changer. The Yankees have been notably conservative in the trade market over the last couple of seasons. They may really need their top pitching prospects, and Clint Frazier has probably finally earned himself a job. But Miguel Andújar, if the Indians want a possible LFer/DH type, wants to be traded.
Atlanta Braves
ZM: David, the Indians would love one of Atlanta’s young center fielders. Would the Braves want Lindor?
David O’Brien: I can’t see it. Dansby Swanson has really made strides and they love him here, as he’s a local guy and a fan favorite. (And he was just named a Gold Glove finalist.) A year ago, it might’ve made a little more sense.
Cincinnati Reds
ZM: Trent, these teams know each other well. Would the Reds be willing to move any young position-player talent the Indians are seeking?
C. Trent Rosecrans: Well, the Reds certainly have a need at shortstop, and you would certainly have to consider Francisco Lindor an upgrade. So, would the Reds have interest? You’re damn right they would.
The question is if they can afford it — in both types of capital, the monetary capital and the prospect capital. The former we don’t know about; only the team does. GM Nick Krall has said the team intends to pursue Trevor Bauer in free agency. It seems to be a stretch for both Bauer and Lindor to fit into the budget.
But what would the team give up? Its top prospects are pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. If you’re looking for position players, it seems unlikely that they’d give up their long-term solution at the position, José García, in a package for a rental. After that, there’s draft pick Austin Hendrick, catcher Tyler Stephenson and infielder Jonathan India. Stephenson showed enough to garner interest, but he is also the team’s future at the position. Hendrick is unknown, and if Cleveland valued India that highly, he may already be there.
So, would the Reds be interested in Lindor? Sure.
Would Cleveland be interested in what the Reds have to offer? That’s a better question.
Philadelphia Phillies
ZM: Meghan, would the Phillies make any sense as a suitor for Lindor?
Meghan Montemurro: I’m not sure the Phillies have the prospect capital to acquire him. Their two best young players — RHP Spencer Howard and 3B/1B Alec Bohm — are both guys they’re counting on in 2021 and beyond both performance-wise and because they’ll only cost league-minimum salary. Beyond them, their farm system is in the bottom third in the majors. Part of the reason general manager Matt Klentak was demoted after five seasons at the helm was because of a failure to draft and develop talent. Positionally, they can move Jean Segura or Scott Kingery back to shortstop, so they don’t necessarily have a huge need.
Phillies managing partner John Middleton said after the season that, essentially, he wouldn’t have OK’d the J.T. Realmuto trade back in Feb. 2019 if the front office wasn’t confident they were going to re-sign him. I’m skeptical he would give the OK for another star player on a short-term deal on top of the expectation that the Phillies are cutting payroll this offseason for 2021. Regardless, I imagine Cleveland could get a better return elsewhere than from Philadelphia.
Toronto Blue Jays
ZM: Kaitlyn, would the Blue Jays have any interest in trading for Lindor this winter? Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins are certainly familiar with him. Toronto has plenty of young talent (especially on the position-player side), which is what the Indians are seeking. Could there be a match?
Kaitlyn McGrath: The Blue Jays front office is interested in improving their club and, with defence a glaring team weakness, Lindor would help. The familiarity between the clubs probably means Atkins would do his due diligence and check-in. That said, there’s still faith in Bo Bichette growing into an All-Star shortstop. The hang-up here, I think, is Lindor’s free agency. The Blue Jays are still a club growing into contention, and a deal for Lindor would probably need to involve an extension.
ZM: Cavan Biggio seems like someone the Indians would covet, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Teoscar Hernández would satisfy their outfield needs.
KM: Of Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bichette and Biggio, Biggio is probably the most moveable, but they really like him. I’d say it’s unlikely he’s moved but not impossible. Gurriel would make a good match since he’s an outfielder who can hit. He’s not as controllable as Biggio, though.
Gson
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who cares..
DCTribefan
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I was responding to the suggestion that other teams will look at the Betts trade and go after Lindor. It’s ok if you do not care.
Gson
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..you stated Betts is better/greater than Lindor.. a moot point.. unless trolling
Steve_424
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Yeah, I'm sure the Indians will be pushing the "Lindor could be your Betts!" narrative to contenders but Lindor isn't Betts.
Which brings up an interesting point - where does Lindor rank in MLB hierarchy with position players?
I'd put Trout, Betts, Yelich, Bellinger, Arenado, Rendon, Soto, Acuna Jr, Freeman, JRam, and Tatis Jr. ahead of him for sure...and those are just off the top of my head.
Is he a Top 10 position player? Top 20? Top 50?
Cassity14
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I think so re: top10, especially because of the position he plays. These aren't the days of AROD, Nomar, etc. where a shortstop hitting at the top or middle of the order was a norm.
Factor in that he's as good defensively as anyone in the game at one of its most important defensive positions.
DCTribefan
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Not a moot point if you’re trying to leverage the Betts trade into a greater return for Lindor. But, yeah, I’m trolling. SMH
Urban
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The thing that Lindor really has going for him is his age, elite defense at perhaps the most important position, health, and extremely consistent production year in year out. It's hard to take away too much from 2020s numbers and I'd expect his next several seasons to look much like his previous full seasons.
I think your list is mostly accurate. Guys like Trevor Story and Manny Machado may have a case. The one I'd disagree with at the moment is Bellinger. Need to see him repeat his 2019 season.
Steve_424
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The biggest thing going against Lindor is the expected market. Correa, Seager, Story, and Baez will all hit free agency the same winter (unless one signs an extension prior). Why pay Lindor $300 M or more when you can go after one of the 4 other guys who are arguably as good or better than Frankie?
He's been awful with RISP the last two seasons and he's disappeared in half of the postseasons he's played in (Good in 2016/2018, awful in 2017/2020).
I like him - he's a fun, flashy player...he makes jaw-dropping plays...I love the energy he plays with. But the closer I look at the guy, the more I come away thinking he's a star, but not a superstar....and I'm not sure it's a great idea for the Indians to give $300 M+ to a guy who isn't a superstar.
sportscoach
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Almost anyone who gets a 300 M contract will never live up to it at the end of the day. Honestly even in a big market, its very hard to merit that much money into one person. He is a franchise style of player, but it doesn't mean he is worth that much money..
sportscoach
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Adam Eaton and Howie Kendrick are free agents and I dont think would be unreasonably priced. With a young roster and likely losing guys like Lindor, both guys cause of experience and usual production, would be nice to bring in. Eaton is from Ohio so we can being him home!
Kevalier
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I would be operating under the assumption that the Indians won't be signing any free agents this winter. Perhaps they surprise us, and re-sign Cesar Hernandez or sign someone else to replace him at 2B. Other than that, I wouldn't hold your breath on them spending any money in the offseason.
DCTribefan
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Off season roster predictions for Tribe.
https://indiansbaseballinsider.com/2020/10/28/2020-tribe-offseason-roster-predictions/
https://indiansbaseballinsider.com/2020/10/28/2020-tribe-offseason-roster-predictions/
i wont hold my breath - but what are these types of players gonna get? eaton and kendrick were pretty underwhelming this season - are they gonna end up signing make good, minor league deals? - what is Hernandez gonna get? is someone really gonna give him 10 for 2 or is he more likely to get say a 4 for 1 deal?