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PFF has an interesting take on Becton... basically, most of his pass protection in college came on play-action, screens, rollouts, throw times under two seconds, and against three-man rushes. When you look at other pass plays - what PFF terms "true pass sets" - Becton performs as by-far the worst in the top-5 tackles. PFF also claims that a player's performance on "true pass sets" tends to project how well a tackle performs in the NFL as a pass protector.
www.pff.com
I have not looked at the data nor seen their regression for myself... part of me thinks they may not be looking at their predictive data carefully enough. I fully believe a guy like Becton would struggle significantly in a vertical passing offense and offenses without a lot of play-action. But, to me, his strengths in the run game and play-action game means he could be very successful in the wide-zone scheme the 49ers, Vikings, Rams, and now Browns will be running.
Still, I have Becton as the fourth-best tackle, simply because I am not entirely sure how his skills translate outside of a zone-blocking scheme.
Why PFF has Louisville's Mekhi Becton as OT5 in the 2020 NFL Draft | NFL Draft | PFF
Most media big boards have Mekhi Becton as a top-20 prospect, but his flaws push him down PFF's ranks.
www.pff.com
There is something captivating about someone who weighs 364 pounds and can run 40 yards in 5.1 seconds. Men as large as Louisville offensive tackle Mekhi Becton are not supposed to move that well. PFF’s Mike Renner speaks to the elite physical tools that Becton has in the PFF Draft Guide, saying he is “the largest offensive tackle in the draft class, but he doesn’t move like it” and that “he heaves grown men who are actively trying not to be heaved.” That kind of physical potential is the stuff NFL front offices fall in love with, and it has Becton near the top of nearly every media big board out there.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper has Becton as the top offensive tackle and the seventh overall prospect on his latest big board; NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah also has Becton as the first tackle on his big board, coming in at seventh overall; Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller is a little lower on Becton, but he still has him as OT3 and the 16th-ranked prospect overall. Nearly everywhere you look across the industry, Becton is a top-20 prospect in this class — except here at PFF.
On the latest edition of the PFF Big Board, Becton comes in as the fifth-ranked offensive tackle (behind Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs and Josh Jones) and just the 47th-best prospect in the class overall. Becton's physical tools make his upside immense, but there is reason to be hesitant taking him with a top-10 pick given what we have on tape (or rather, what we don’t have on tape) from his three years at Louisville.
BECTON HASN’T BEEN TESTED LIKE THE OTHER TOP TACKLES IN THE CLASS
Back in January, we looked at true pass sets and their importance to player evaluation. Not all pass protection snaps are created equally. There are different circumstances and offensive schemes that make life easier or more difficult for offensive linemen to keep their quarterback off the ground, so simply looking at pass protection numbers as a whole can be misleading. What we found was that when evaluating pass blockers, a good rule of thumb is to look at plays:
- Without play action
- Without a screen
- Without a rollout
- With a time to throw between two and four seconds
- With more than a three-man rush
Those plays create a group that we call “true pass sets” — a set of plays from which we can better glean how well a player actually performed in pass protection. One problem that comes with evaluating Becton is that he had very few such plays to look at. In 2019, Louisville had the 13th-most dropbacks with play action in college football and the eighth-most plays with a designed rollout, leaving Becton with a fair amount of pass-blocking snaps that looked something like this.
When trying to evaluate a pass blocker, plays like those offer little value. Looking at the top five tackles in this class, Becton not only had the lowest number of true pass sets last season, but he had the worst PFF pass-blocking grade on those snaps by a wide margin, as well.
Becton may have finished the 2019 season with an 81.5 pass-blocking grade, but his life at Louisville was made easier by a scheme with frequent play action and designed rollouts. When it came to the few plays that matter more when projecting a player as a pass protector from college to the NFL, Becton was merely average, while Thomas, Wills, Wirfs and Jones all showcased high-level play.
Player True Pass Sets PFF Pass-Blocking Grade Percentile Andrew Thomas 188 83.5 93rd Jedrick Wills Jr. 109 77.5 86th Tristan Wirfs 182 84.0 95th Josh Jones 114 82.0 91st Mekhi Becton 73 64.7 58th
The inconsistencies in his game weren’t a one-year problem, either. The flipped offensive line that had Becton rotating between left tackle and right tackle during his freshman and sophomore seasons certainly didn’t help matters, but he earned just a 68.3 pass-blocking grade across those two years. By comparison, Jones — a player who few boards have among the top four tackles in the class — has four seasons of high-level pass protection on his resume, picking up an 86.5 pass-blocking grade across nearly 2,000 pass-blocking snaps during his collegiate career. When combined with a standout performance at the Senior Bowl, it’s just easier to see that performance translating to the NFL level.
PROJECTING BECTON VERSUS OTHER TACKLES
Using our college-to-pro projection system, which leans heavily on the above contextual variables to weight past performance, we have Becton lower than some of the other players in his class, despite his world-class athleticism for the position. In pass protection, his projected win rate is lower than notable players like Ben Bartch, Tristan Wirfs, Jedrick Wills, Austin Jackson, Matt Peart, Josh Jones, Jack Driscoll, Ezra Cleveland and Lucias Niang:
Becton’s projected win rate and sack rate allowed in the passing game during the first five years of his career, in the context-free environment. Dotted lines are league median for players in their first five seasons.
Becton’s low projections are still about league median for a player at his position, which — while underwhelming for someone taken in the top 10 of the draft — are not a bad outcome if properly valued. Furthermore, Becton is projected to win more in the run game than his contemporaries at the NFL level, while losing at a rate that is in the middle of his draft class. That does add to his value, albeit less so than if he had the same composition as a pass blocker:
Becton’s projected win rate and loss rate in the running game during the first five years of his career, in the context-free environment. Dotted lines are league median for players in their first five seasons.
There is no doubt that Becton is an intriguing prospect, and he certainly has the tools to be a quality starter along the offensive line for years to come. As the PFF Big Board says, “The good lord only made so many men that large that could move. They tend not to last long in the draft.” At this point, it’s hard to see him falling outside the top 10. A team is going to fall in love with that combination of size, athleticism and power, but there is inherent risk with Becton coming off the board early. He’s not the only athletic freak at tackle in this draft class, and unlike some other top options, Becton carries some risks in pass protection. It’s the reason that he finds himself well behind our top four tackles in the class, all of whom sit among our top-15 prospects regardless of position.
I have not looked at the data nor seen their regression for myself... part of me thinks they may not be looking at their predictive data carefully enough. I fully believe a guy like Becton would struggle significantly in a vertical passing offense and offenses without a lot of play-action. But, to me, his strengths in the run game and play-action game means he could be very successful in the wide-zone scheme the 49ers, Vikings, Rams, and now Browns will be running.
Still, I have Becton as the fourth-best tackle, simply because I am not entirely sure how his skills translate outside of a zone-blocking scheme.
