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2020 Lineup Discussion

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So wait now AZ and Gour are both inactive on RCF at the same time? In this scenario kyrie and Lebron are gone, who is the sites Kevin love that stuck around that the site is trying to get rid of?
 
So wait now AZ and Gour are both inactive on RCF at the same time? In this scenario kyrie and Lebron are gone, who is the sites Kevin love that stuck around that the site is trying to get rid of?

Its probably me since I was always the one who was debating with AZ_ and wasn't backing down lol
 
the infield is set: jram lindor hernandez santana. however if bauers makes the roster because he's hitting, i want him at 1B against RHP because santana slashed .325 .434 .699 1.133 in 23 games at DH vs. .273 .390 .484 .874 at 1B.

as for the outfield, i am not as enamored of reyes and his .304 OBP. frankly, i'd rather see another platoon of naquin/luplow who combined for 25 HR 72 RBI and SIXTEEN assists.

and when it comes to DH, i would rather see domingo santana and his lifetime .343 OBP in the lineup over reyes. before he got hurt last year, he was slashing. 286. .354 .496 .850 in almost 400 PA, almost all of them hitting 2nd/3rd in the order with 18 HR 63 RBI. that projects pretty nicely over a full 650 PA season.

at this point, we don't need more power in the lineup. 2019's roster hit 4 more HR than the 1996 roster. the difference was that the 1996 roster posted a team OBP of almost .370 while it was less than .325 last season. 4.5% times 650 PA times nine players is about 270 extra men on base over the course of a season. 1/3 of them scoring is an extra 90 runs.

the same kind of thinking goes behind keeping mercado in CF in the #2 spot. he was a clutch hitter and kept rallies going. he hit .320 .360 .521 .881 with men on base. he also hit .310 .360 .560 .920 with 2 out. OTOH, he hit only .238 with no one on base.

francona has his rajai davis clone in deshlelds. if deshields could match his minor league career 10% walk rate and manage a .350 OBP, i'd move mercado to LF and have deshields lead off and a threat to steal 40 bases a season. the logic behind this is that most hitters, including lindor, jram and santana hit about 100 pts better after taking the first pitch for a ball vs going 0-1. (mercado doesn't, oddly enough) the point is calling a pitchout on the first pitch with most hitters drastically improves their chances of getting on base. the only problem is that deshields hits RH like mercado. i have no idea who francona is going to play and when.

LF is the least challenging position in the OF. reyes/santana possibly bauers? santana looked awful in LF last season but in his defense, he's played only 20+ games in LF before 2019. i expect the 26th position to go to a backup outfielder, and yes, i've written off allen, zimmer & probably bauers for 2020.

regardless, hernandez should be an offensive upgrade over kipnis, and whoever is in LF will be better than bauers last year. jram should rebound. i'd be very surprised if we didn't reach at least 800+ runs scored in a 162 game season. if we give up about 650 runs like last year that's a 96 win season; about every 10+ runs in differential means a win above 81. do the math on just about any MLB run and you'll be within about 3 wins or losses of predicting their overall W-L record.
 
To echo the above, in my opinion, Franmil Reyes is a bit overrated on this board. He's still a good player but he's going to have to really show plate discipline improvement to become great. I also wonder how much his lack of defensive prowess would bring down his WAR over a season whether it be full, half, whatever.

Don't think we should necessarily read too much into Mercado's situational stats over ~500 career plate appearances. We've seen how those kind of stats can vary drastically by year.

DeShields has maintained a 10% walk rate throughout his major league career. To hit .350 OBP, he's going to have to hit .275+ though, which he's never done.
 
the infield is set: jram lindor hernandez santana. however if bauers makes the roster because he's hitting, i want him at 1B against RHP because santana slashed .325 .434 .699 1.133 in 23 games at DH vs. .273 .390 .484 .874 at 1B.

as for the outfield, i am not as enamored of reyes and his .304 OBP. frankly, i'd rather see another platoon of naquin/luplow who combined for 25 HR 72 RBI and SIXTEEN assists.

and when it comes to DH, i would rather see domingo santana and his lifetime .343 OBP in the lineup over reyes. before he got hurt last year, he was slashing. 286. .354 .496 .850 in almost 400 PA, almost all of them hitting 2nd/3rd in the order with 18 HR 63 RBI. that projects pretty nicely over a full 650 PA season.

at this point, we don't need more power in the lineup. 2019's roster hit 4 more HR than the 1996 roster. the difference was that the 1996 roster posted a team OBP of almost .370 while it was less than .325 last season. 4.5% times 650 PA times nine players is about 270 extra men on base over the course of a season. 1/3 of them scoring is an extra 90 runs.

the same kind of thinking goes behind keeping mercado in CF in the #2 spot. he was a clutch hitter and kept rallies going. he hit .320 .360 .521 .881 with men on base. he also hit .310 .360 .560 .920 with 2 out. OTOH, he hit only .238 with no one on base.

francona has his rajai davis clone in deshlelds. if deshields could match his minor league career 10% walk rate and manage a .350 OBP, i'd move mercado to LF and have deshields lead off and a threat to steal 40 bases a season. the logic behind this is that most hitters, including lindor, jram and santana hit about 100 pts better after taking the first pitch for a ball vs going 0-1. (mercado doesn't, oddly enough) the point is calling a pitchout on the first pitch with most hitters drastically improves their chances of getting on base. the only problem is that deshields hits RH like mercado. i have no idea who francona is going to play and when.

LF is the least challenging position in the OF. reyes/santana possibly bauers? santana looked awful in LF last season but in his defense, he's played only 20+ games in LF before 2019. i expect the 26th position to go to a backup outfielder, and yes, i've written off allen, zimmer & probably bauers for 2020.

regardless, hernandez should be an offensive upgrade over kipnis, and whoever is in LF will be better than bauers last year. jram should rebound. i'd be very surprised if we didn't reach at least 800+ runs scored in a 162 game season. if we give up about 650 runs like last year that's a 96 win season; about every 10+ runs in differential means a win above 81. do the math on just about any MLB run and you'll be within about 3 wins or losses of predicting their overall W-L record.
I don't have a problem with rotating Santana off 1B every now and then, but I think you're reading too much into a very small sample size of plate appearances.

As far as Mercado goes, situational splits mean very little within a single year as well and are not a good indicator of performance in those situations moving forward.

DeShields has a career wRC+ of 76, he should never be an everyday player, let alone a top of the lineup hitter. I know people think speed at the top of the order is important, and it's nice to have up there, but ultimately the goal just needs to be to get as many guys on base as possible in front of your best hitters (Ramirez, Lindor, Santana). DeShields does not provide enough in that regard.

I agree Reyes has been a little overrated, but he's also only played a single full season in the majors and has provided a 115 wRC+ over 237 games. In terms of guys on the roster, he's almost certainly in our top 4 hitters. If you look back at old posts, I do think it's imperative for him to increase his walk rate. His .321 OBP% needs to improve if we want to reach our ultimate goal.

I posted this a while back, and this is what I'd like to see out of the lineup:

vs RHP
1. Hernandez - 2B
2. Ramirez - 3B
3. Lindor - SS
4. Santana, C - 1B
5. Reyes - RF
6. Bradley - DH
7. Luplow - LF
8. Perez - C
9. Mercado - CF

vs LHP
1. Hernandez - 2B
2. Ramirez - 3B
3. Lindor - SS
4. Santana, C - 1B
5. Reyes - RF
6. Santana, D - DH
7. Luplow - LF
8. Perez - C
9. Mercado - CF

If Naquin gets healthy, it'd be nice to put him in a rotation with D. Santana and Luplow.

I also think our offense is set up to be successful this season (if we have one). Welcome to the board!
 
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I worry that D. Santana will become a disaster at DH. I'm actually surprised we have him guaranteed money. Plus I think I'd rather have JRam hitting after Reyes,who I think could have a historically good season.
 
Domingo Santana should strictly be a DH. The bat has always been there, he just gives away a lot of his value with his defense. $1m guaranteed for a guy with a career 112 wRC+ is a bargain
 
Domingo Santana should strictly be a DH. The bat has always been there, he just gives away a lot of his value with his defense. $1m guaranteed for a guy with a career 112 wRC+ is a bargain
No doubt Domingo is better as a DH than defender in the field when his bat is alive, but I have to ask this question: What would you prefer - Removing Reyes from the field during the final third of the game to insert a better defender (leaving Domingo in the lineup all game as DH) or Removing Domingo from the field during the final third of the game to insert a better defender (leaving Franmil in the lineup all game as DH)???
 
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I think if you look back through my posts in this section you’ll see that I’ve been consistently lower on Domingo than most. He's not washed like Hanley or CarGo were last year, but there's a reason we were able to snag him at such a low price. He simply hasn't shown that he's a consistently valuable MLB player.

I would certainly prefer that he rotated into a spot, or maybe even started strictly against lefties while allowing Bobby Bradley to platoon at DH vs RHP.
 
I don't have a problem with rotating Santana off 1B every now and then, but I think you're reading too much into a very small sample size of plate appearances.

As far as Mercado goes, situational splits mean very little within a single year as well and are not a good indicator of performance in those situations moving forward.

DeShields has a career wRC+ of 76, he should never be an everyday player, let alone a top of the lineup hitter. I know people think speed at the top of the order is important, and it's nice to have up there, but ultimately the goal just needs to be to get as many guys on base as possible in front of your best hitters (Ramirez, Lindor, Santana). DeShields does not provide enough in that regard.

I agree Reyes has been a little overrated, but he's also only played a single full season in the majors and has provided a 115 wRC+ over 237 games. In terms of guys on the roster, he's almost certainly in our top 4 hitters. If you look back at old posts, I do think it's imperative for him to increase his walk rate. His .321 OBP% needs to improve if we want to reach our ultimate goal.

I posted this a while back, and this is what I'd like to see out of the lineup:
1. Hernandez - 2B
2. Ramirez - 3B
3. Lindor - SS
4. Santana, C - 1B
5. Reyes - RF
6. Santana, D - DH
7. Luplow - LF
8. Perez - C
9. Mercado - CF

If Naquin gets healthy, it'd be nice to put him in a rotation with D. Santana and Luplow.

I also think our offense is set up to be successful this season (if we have one). Welcome to the board!
I posted this a while back, and this is what I'd like to see out of the lineup:

1. Hernandez - 2B
2. Ramirez - 3B
3. Lindor - SS
4. Santana, C - 1B
5. Reyes - RF
6. Santana, D - DH
7. Luplow - LF
8. Perez - C
9. Mercado - CF


Nice lineup, but I like to put the highest OBP guys at the top. Hernandez had an OBP of .338 last year against Los' .397. The OPS+ was 136 to 91. I don't like Hernandez leading off.

With no logical leadoff hitter I’m just going to put the best hitters at the top to put immediate pressure on the opponent’s starter in the first inning before he settles in. Also, this gives more at-bats to the best hitters over the course of a season. I don't want a guy with no power, a .338 OPS, and a 91 OPS+ leading the team in plate appearances.

1. Santana 1B
2. Lindor SS
3. Ramirez 3B
4. Reyes RF
5. Luplow/Naquin LF
6. D. Santana DH
7. Hernandez 2B
8. Mercado CF
9. Perez C

You could switch Lindor and Santana if you want, but Lindor’s OBP was only .335 last year - 62 points lower than Santana. You could actually make an argument for putting the first three guys in any order you want. I'm not sure one would be significantly better than the others.

With Lindor and Hosey coming up next pitchers will not be able to pitch around Santana as much. They’ll have to pitch to him.

I think Reyes has awesome potential. He was in the top 1% last year in average exit velocity. The ball explodes off his bat. With the weight loss and playing in the field he should hit like he did in San Diego, only better.

With Lindor and/or Hosey on base and both threats to run, pitchers will have to divide their attention and pitch from the stretch, which will only help Reyes. Also, defenses won’t be able to shift as much, not that they do anyway since he goes to right field a lot.

Hernandez bats 7th between right-handed hitters D. Santana and Mercado. We never have three consecutive hitters from the same side of the plate and we only have two consecutive hitters once, at 8 and 9.
 
I posted this a while back, and this is what I'd like to see out of the lineup:
1. Hernandez - 2B
2. Ramirez - 3B
3. Lindor - SS
4. Santana, C - 1B
5. Reyes - RF
6. Santana, D - DH
7. Luplow - LF
8. Perez - C
9. Mercado - CF


Nice lineup, but I like to put the highest OBP guys at the top. Hernandez had an OBP of .338 last year against Los' .397. The OPS+ was 136 to 91. I don't like Hernandez leading off.

With no logical leadoff hitter I’m just going to put the best hitters at the top to put immediate pressure on the opponent’s starter in the first inning. Also, this gives more at-bats to the best hitters.

1. Santana 1B
2. Lindor SS
3. Ramirez 3B
4. Reyes RF
Luplow/Naquin LF
D. Santana DH
Hernandez 2B
Mercado CF
Perez C

You could switch Lindor and Santana if you want, but Lindor’s OBP was only .335 last year - 62 points lower than Santana.

With Lindor and Hosey coming up next pitchers will not be able to pitch around Santana as much. They’ll have to pitch to him.

I think Reyes has awesome potential. He was in the top 1% last year in average exit velocity. The ball explodes off his bat. With the weight loss and playing in the field he should hit like he did in San Diego, only better.

With Lindor and/or Hosey on base and both threats to run, pitchers will have to divide their attention and pitch from the stretch, which will only help Reyes. Also, defenses won’t be able to shift as much, not that they do anyway since he goes to right field a lot.

Hernandez bats 7th between right-handed hitters D. Santana and Mercado. We never have three consecutive hitters from the same side of the plate and we only have two consecutive hitters once, at 8 and 9.
That's a waste of Carlos's XBH ability though. There's a balance to strike. You want a high OBP% guy up there, but you don't want him to have too much power. Otherwise, it's a waste. OPS+ doesn't really correlate to being a good lead-off hitter since it factors in SLG%.

Hernandez makes the most sense in the lead-off spot with his career OBP% of .352. His three seasons prior to 2019 saw him post .356, .373 and .371 OBP% with pretty even splits vs LHP and RHP. Out of our options, he's the ideal lead-off hitter.

I will say that although I hate Lindor in the lead-off spot, I fully expect him to bat there as long as he's an Indian. So, I guess most of our discussion is moot.
 

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