2020 Lineup Discussion

[MadThinker88]

That's what Leon, Bobby Bradley, and Naquin are for.

I would expect 1-2 of them in the lineup against every righty.

Sorry I thought Leon was a pure righty. He is another SH. That said I doubt Tito reduces Perez's playing time too much.

IF the season delay is long enough, yes Naquin might be an option to break up the RH mass (at the expense of Luplow or Reyes/ Santana) but he will need more playing time than others to get ready (since he didn't get any game action before camps closed).

I don't think Bobby Bradley makes the club (even with extra bench spots) if Domingo & Reyes are both healthy & producing. IF Domingo is not producing & the Tribe cuts him loose, it would be a huge help for Bradleys chances.. Getting 5 AB a week while on the bench does him (or the team in the long run) no good. Bradley would be better served playing regularly in the minors (if there is a minors). While I am not a fan of Bauers he is at least functional at multiple positions in the field.

 

[Derek]

Sorry I thought Leon was a pure righty. He is another SH. That said I doubt Tito reduces Perez's playing time too much.

IF the season delay is long enough, yes Naquin might be an option to break up the RH mass (at the expense of Luplow or Reyes/ Santana) but he will need more playing time than others to get ready (since he didn't get any game action before camps closed).

I don't think Bobby Bradley makes the club (even with extra bench spots) if Domingo & Reyes are both healthy & producing. IF Domingo is not producing & the Tribe cuts him loose, it would be a huge help for Bradleys chances.. Getting 5 AB a week while on the bench does him (or the team in the long run) no good. Bradley would be better served playing regularly in the minors (if there is a minors). While I am not a fan of Bauers he is at least functional at multiple positions in the field.

He wouldn't need to reduce Perez's playing time much. He had a career year last season, Plawecki stunk, and he still only played about 70% of the time. I would expect him to be in the 60-65% range this year.

If Bobby Bradley doesn't make it then Bauers does. Either way, there's a usable lefty to combat a righty reliever. Otherwise, we don't have a backup 1B. If it were up to me, I would have Bradley as my DH against righties. I don't think there's any reason to hand Domingo an everyday role. He's had one good year in his career and was brought in for not much more than a minor league deal.

Naquin was close to being ready if we started on-time, so I would have to assume he'll be ready if they ever do start the season.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm getting a little frustrated because I feel like you're ignoring some parts of my posts.

I have stated multiple times that I don't care about OPS+ when determining my lead-off hitter. OBP% is far more important to me because OPS+ accounts for SLG% which is completely meaningless when measuring how good somebody is as a lead-off hitter. I simply care about who is going to be on base most often for the guys behind him.

I don't care much at all about how fast my lead-off hitter is. So, I'm not sure why you brought up base stealing.

Batting order and situational splits are also completely meaningless to me. It's simply too small of sample size and you'll find that the correlation between them and future performance in those areas is close to non-existent.

I have posted a lot of evidence to support my argument. I'm really not sure how you can advocate for Santana or Lindor or Jose in the lead-off spot over Hernandez when you see the numbers I laid out in front of you. The difference between leading off and batting 4th is about 100 extra PA with runners on base for the 4th hitter and about 55 extra PA overall for the lead-off hitter.

Hernandez is about a .350 OBP% guy and Santana is about a .370 OBP% guy. However, when you account for their HR, Santana is actually on base about 33% of the time and Hernandez is on base almost 34% of the time. The difference between those numbers and their OBP% is their HR, which are far more likely to be solo shots in the lead-off spot.

If you can read all of that, and still disagree, then I believe it is best for us both to move on from the topic for the time being.

Sorry you're getting frustrated. I, too, think OBP is important, especially for the leadoff hitter, which is why I have our best OBP guy leading off.

You're trying to convince me to ignore Hernandez's 2019 season but consider his 2016-2018 seasons. Why his 2016 season is relevant but his 2019 season is not is where we differ.

At least you agree Santana will get on base more. Your argument seems to be that we should disregard the OBP numbers for both of them in 2019 because Hernandez was lower than his established norm while Santana was higher. You expect there to be a small difference in their OBP’s this year as they both revert to the mean.

Heck, I don’t know if one or both of their 2019 seasons were outliers. But I put more importance on recent numbers than on not recent numbers. Santana changed his approach last year after a miserable season in Philly where he hit .229. People don’t change until they hit rock bottom. To Santana’s credit he stopped banging ground balls relentlessly into the shift and made himself into an All-Star.

If we ignore both their 2019 seasons then there’s a much stronger argument for Hernandez leading off. I'm just not as willing as you to ignore last season. I still want my All-Star with the .397 OBP up front and not the guy who the Phillies let walk in free agency at age 28. I want the opposing starter to have to deal with Los, Hosey, and Lindor right from the drop.

There's a reason Hernandez signed a one-year deal for $6.5 million while Santana got a $60 million deal despite being three years older when he signed the contract.

I want our best hitters to get the most plate appearances. I don’t accept the argument that the leadoff hitter HAS to be someone who doesn’t hit home runs or have a high slugging percentage. Better to have a great hitter leading off than an average one, or a below average one if you look at Hernandez's OPS+ the last two seasons.

I guess Tito will settle this disagreement if this season ever gets going.

 

[Derek]

Sorry you're getting frustrated. I, too, think OBP is important, especially for the leadoff hitter, which is why I have our best OBP guy leading off.

You're trying to convince me to ignore Hernandez's 2019 season but consider his 2016-2018 seasons. Why his 2016 season is relevant but his 2019 season is not is where we differ.

At least you agree Santana will get on base more. Your argument seems to be that we should disregard the OBP numbers for both of them in 2019 because Hernandez was lower than his established norm while Santana was higher. You expect there to be a small difference in their OBP’s this year as they both revert to the mean.

Heck, I don’t know if one or both of their 2019 seasons were outliers. But I put more importance on recent numbers than on not recent numbers. Santana changed his approach last year after a miserable season in Philly where he hit .229. People don’t change until they hit rock bottom. To Santana’s credit he stopped banging ground balls relentlessly into the shift and made himself into an All-Star.

If we ignore both their 2019 seasons then there’s a much stronger argument for Hernandez leading off. I'm just not as willing as you to ignore last season. I still want my All-Star with the .397 OBP up front and not the guy who the Phillies let walk in free agency at age 28. I want the opposing starter to have to deal with Los, Hosey, and Lindor right from the drop.

There's a reason Hernandez signed a one-year deal for $6.5 million while Santana got a $60 million deal despite being three years older when he signed the contract.

I want our best hitters to get the most plate appearances. I don’t accept the argument that the leadoff hitter HAS to be someone who doesn’t hit home runs or have a high slugging percentage. Better to have a great hitter leading off than an average one, or a below average one if you look at Hernandez's OPS+ the last two seasons.

I guess Tito will settle this disagreement if this season ever gets going.

You're assuming I think Tito knows how to optimize a lineup

FWIW, I'm not ignoring last season at all. If I could combine the last 3-5 years worth of stats and present them, I would (Hernandez is easy because he played for Philly his whole career, Santana's year in Philly makes it difficult using FanGraphs). Plus, I just showed you numbers that say Hernandez is actually on base at a higher rate than Santana over the course of their careers.

Regardless, I actually used their career numbers for my most recent post. 2019 was definitely an outlier for both of them, that's really not arguable.

Also, you're a little off-base on Santana's changes. He actually set a career-high (by a decent margin) in going the opposite way during his season in Philly.

You're still ignoring large chunks of my posts, so I'll just bid you a good day.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Santana’s pull percentage last year was the lowest of his career and a full 5% lower than his career average. His percentage of balls hit to center was the highest of his career and 4.4% higher than his career average. As a result of going up the middle more his BABIP was the second highest of his career and his batting average improved by 62 points over 2018.

His approach to hitting changed after he hit .229 in Philadelphia and got traded. As this Let’s Go Tribe column put it, “He’s a completely different hitter now”.

https://www.letsgotribe.com/2019/5/8/18536126/carlos-santana-is-different-for-better-and-worse

So you can use career stats if you want to, but I don’t think his numbers from 2010 and 2011 are relevant. Both the game and Santana have changed. There’s a lot more shifting than there was when he broke in and he has adapted. I just think the most recent numbers give you a better picture of what to expect next year than numbers from 5-10 years ago, or even 2-3 years ago.

I respect your point that players have seasons that deviate from the norm. Maybe Hernandez’ 2019 season where his OBP dropped to .333 was an “outlier”. I guess we’ll find out this year.

I think it’s important to put players in positions where they feel comfortable and can succeed. Last year Hernandez hit .305 batting in the bottom third of the order. Over the last three years he’s hitting .321 in nearly 200 AB’s in the #7 spot against .272 as a leadoff hitter. His numbers suggest he’s more comfortable hitting down in the order as opposed to having the pressure of being the leadoff hitter. So I have him hitting 7th.

I just believe that putting your highest OBP guy in the leadoff spot, getting your best hitters to the plate more often than your worst hitters, and putting guys in positions where they have proven to be more successful is more important than forcing one of your three worst hitters into the leadoff spot in order to have to endure a few less solo home runs.

My guess is that Tito thinks we're both wrong and Lindor will lead off.

 

[Urban]

I think it’s important to put players in positions where they feel comfortable and can succeed. Last year Hernandez hit .305 batting in the bottom third of the order. Over the last three years he’s hitting .321 in nearly 200 AB’s in the #7 spot against .272 as a leadoff hitter. His numbers suggest he’s more comfortable hitting down in the order as opposed to having the pressure of being the leadoff hitter. So I have him hitting 7th.

You are comparing a 207 PA sample (all of which is from a single season) vs a 1262 PA sample over 3 seasons. It's flawed to compare the two for several reasons. Nearly 61% of his career plate appearances are from the lead off spot. Is that not where he should be most comfortable?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

You are comparing a 207 PA sample (all of which is from a single season) vs a 1262 PA sample over 3 seasons. It's flawed to compare the two for several reasons. Nearly 61% of his career plate appearances are from the lead off spot. Is that not where he should be most comfortable?

I don't know if it's a matter of "comfort" or if he feels free to be more aggressive hitting 7th. If my math is correct he walked 13% of the time as a leadoff hitter and 10% hitting 7th. Leadoff hitters think they need to take more pitches and try to get on base. That's not the case hitting 7th, especially in the N.L. with the #8 hitter and the pitcher on deck. You want to be aggressive and swing at the first good pitch you see.

Hernandez's numbers are better when he hits in the lower third of the order and when he hits with men on base. His OBP last year hitting leadoff was only .317. Maybe he just had a bad year and he'd be a terrific leadoff guy for the Tribe. We may find out. Maybe Tito agrees that the leadoff hitter should be the guy with the highest career OBP who is not a home run hitter. I'm willing to tolerate a few more solo home runs if it puts our best OBP guy leading off. Derek isn't. Can't wait to see what Tito thinks.

By the way, if hitting home runs automatically disqualifies a player from hitting leadoff then you have to eliminate not only Santana but Lindor, Hosey, Reyes, Luplow, Domingo Santana, and Perez (24 HR’s last year).

That leaves Hernandez, Naquin (10 HR’s but he probably platoons with Luplow) and Mercado (15 HR’s in 2/3 of a season). Not how I would go about choosing a leadoff hitter, but as you said, Hernandez had over 1,200 AB’s hitting leadoff in Philly. They seemed to like him there. Maybe Tito will, too. He had Leonys Martin leading off for a while last year.

 

[Derek]

I don't know if it's a matter of "comfort" or if he feels free to be more aggressive hitting 7th. If my math is correct he walked 13% of the time as a leadoff hitter and 10% hitting 7th. Leadoff hitters think they need to take more pitches and try to get on base. That's not the case hitting 7th, especially in the N.L. with the #8 hitter and the pitcher on deck. You want to be aggressive and swing at the first good pitch you see.

Hernandez's numbers are better when he hits in the lower third of the order and when he hits with men on base. His OBP last year hitting leadoff was only .317. Maybe he just had a bad year and he'd be a terrific leadoff guy for the Tribe. We may find out. Maybe Tito agrees that the leadoff hitter should be the guy with the highest career OBP who is not a home run hitter. I'm willing to tolerate a few more solo home runs if it puts our best OBP guy leading off. Derek isn't. Can't wait to see what Tito thinks.

By the way, if hitting home runs automatically disqualifies a player from hitting leadoff then you have to eliminate not only Santana but Lindor, Hosey, Reyes, Luplow, Domingo Santana, and Perez (24 HR’s last year).

That leaves Hernandez, Naquin (10 HR’s but he probably platoons with Luplow) and Mercado (15 HR’s in 2/3 of a season). Not how I would go about choosing a leadoff hitter, but as you said, Hernandez had over 1,200 AB’s hitting leadoff in Philly. They seemed to like him there. Maybe Tito will, too. He had Leonys Martin leading off for a while last year.

Hernandez has next to nothing in common with Leonys Martin. He has a sub-.300 OBP% for his career and a career-high of just .325

I also showed you that Hernandez is actually on base more often than Santana.

As far as being more aggressive lower in the order, every position in the order should be patient. Batting order splits have proven themselves pretty worthless. But, if you're really that interested in them, and OPS+, Hernandez had his best OPS leading off out of any of his primary positions (1-6-7) in the batting order last year.

 

[sportscoach]

@Derek

Figured I would change topic slightly and ask the question, what do you think of Tampa's way of doing a lineup? They put whomever is the hottest up in the lead off spot and other non-traditional stuff like that, rather than just stick with a lead off guy

I am almost tempted to say maybe we should put Luplow leadoff/two hole against lefties. Sounds strange but with his last years numbers I would almost want to see him that way.

I personally dont like any of the guys we have for lead off, but my logic says Hernandez over Lindor mostly cause Hernandez isnt a HR threat compared to the other guys so with the fact that I want Lindor, Ramirez and Santana all up with guys on base. So production OBP wise was the same, I'd rather have the one who has more power lower since the probability increases of additional runs.

Also I did crack and bought the new MLB 20 on the PS4 to pass the time lol normally I dont buy them right away but having no season is killing me slowly inside lol

 

[Derek]

@Derek

Figured I would change topic slightly and ask the question, what do you think of Tampa's way of doing a lineup? They put whomever is the hottest up in the lead off spot and other non-traditional stuff like that, rather than just stick with a lead off guy

I am almost tempted to say maybe we should put Luplow leadoff/two hole against lefties. Sounds strange but with his last years numbers I would almost want to see him that way.

I personally dont like any of the guys we have for lead off, but my logic says Hernandez over Lindor mostly cause Hernandez isnt a HR threat compared to the other guys so with the fact that I want Lindor, Ramirez and Santana all up with guys on base. So production OBP wise was the same, I'd rather have the one who has more power lower since the probability increases of additional runs.

Also I did crack and bought the new MLB 20 on the PS4 to pass the time lol normally I dont buy them right away but having no season is killing me slowly inside lol

Do you have a link to Tampa's lineup management strategy?

I can't believe that's actually what they're doing, because they're very analytics-based and a guy being "hot" isn't really something that is backed up by analytics.

Looking at their lineup cards from last year, it looks like they really liked Meadows there against righties until they realized how much power he had, and they moved him to 2-3 from mid-July on. They liked Yandy against lefties, but obviously he got hurt.

I like Yandy as a lead-off guy a lot, actually.

 

[sportscoach]

Do you have a link to Tampa's lineup management strategy?

I can't believe that's actually what they're doing, because they're very analytics-based and a guy being "hot" isn't really something that is backed up by analytics.

Looking at their lineup cards from last year, it looks like they really liked Meadows there against righties until they realized how much power he had, and they moved him to 2-3 from mid-July on. They liked Yandy against lefties, but obviously he got hurt.

I like Yandy as a lead-off guy a lot, actually.

2019 Tampa Bay Rays Batting Orders | Baseball-Reference.com

www.baseball-reference.com

I guess that wasn't the best way to explain it, but I watched a fair amount of Rays games last year and they had a variable attitude towards the lineup. They would move up guys in the lineup who have been hitting well/were a good matchup against the pitcher, while they would move down guys who werent doing as well/not as good of a matchup. They used 13 different guys in the leadoff spot including Choi, d'Arnaud, etc. Now the injury to Diaz probably did effect who was leading off

I completely agree with you about Diaz as a leadoff guy since he focuses on contact, taking pitches and getting on base. Even though he may have the biggest arms in baseball he doesnt try to hit for power (if you boys like to look at men's arms @Huber. )

What I was getting towards, do you prefer a set lineup or one that is more flexible/variable?

 

[Derek]

2019 Tampa Bay Rays Batting Orders | Baseball-Reference.com

www.baseball-reference.com

I guess that wasn't the best way to explain it, but I watched a fair amount of Rays games last year and they had a variable attitude towards the lineup. They would move up guys in the lineup who have been hitting well/were a good matchup against the pitcher, while they would move down guys who werent doing as well/not as good of a matchup. They used 13 different guys in the leadoff spot including Choi, d'Arnaud, etc. Now the injury to Diaz probably did effect who was leading off

I completely agree with you about Diaz as a leadoff guy since he focuses on contact, taking pitches and getting on base. Even though he may have the biggest arms in baseball he doesnt try to hit for power (if you boys like to look at men's arms @Huber. )

What I was getting towards, do you prefer a set lineup or one that is more flexible/variable?

I don't think they really changed any more often than the Indians. All lineups have to be flexible due to platoons and injuries, which the Rays have a ton of, much like the Indians. Except the Rays had even more injuries and platoons.

They had 152 different lineups next year compared to our 132.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Hernandez has next to nothing in common with Leonys Martin. He has a sub-.300 OBP% for his career and a career-high of just .325

I agree. I just mentioned that to show that Tito is more than willing to hit low-OBP guys in the leadoff spot. Actually, he doesn't mind putting guys who hit 30+ HR's there, either. Just ask Frankie.

I also showed you that Hernandez is actually on base more often than Santana.

Yeah, if you don't count Santana's home runs as getting on base and you also look at career numbers which include data from 5-10 years ago rather than look at who the player is right now.

As far as being more aggressive lower in the order, every position in the order should be patient. Batting order splits have proven themselves pretty worthless. But, if you're really that interested in them, and OPS+, Hernandez had his best OPS leading off out of any of his primary positions (1-6-7) in the batting order last year.

But not nearly as good as Santana's OPS (170 points lower to be exact), which is why I want Santana getting to the dish more often.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

@Derek

I personally dont like any of the guys we have for lead off, but my logic says Hernandez over Lindor mostly cause Hernandez isnt a HR threat compared to the other guys so with the fact that I want Lindor, Ramirez and Santana all up with guys on base. So production OBP wise was the same, I'd rather have the one who has more power lower since the probability increases of additional runs.

I'm not sure "the probability increases of additional runs". Derek showed that the leadoff hitter comes up with nobody on base a higher percentage of the time than any other spot in the lineup. Therefore, it seems a waste to put a home run hitter there since odds are he will hit more solo home runs than if he hit the same number of home runs anywhere else in the order. I agree with that.

But what if that home run hitting leadoff batter also has the highest OBP on the team? Santana gets on base more than Hernandez, which means that when the 2, 3, and 4 hitters hit home runs an additional run will score some of the time. The runs you "lose" when your leadoff hitter hits a solo home run will be regained when he's on base more often when the guys behind him homer.

So when Hosey, Lindor, and Reyes hit home runs they are more likely to be 2- or 3-run homers because Santana will be on base more than Hernandez.

Also, hitters hit better with men on base because the defense can't shift as much, first baseman have to hold the runner which creates a hole, starting pitchers have to pitch from the stretch when they prefer pitching from a windup, and the pitchers have to divide their attention between the hitter and baserunner and in some cases use a quicker delivery than they prefer.

Putting a higher OBP guy in front of Hosey, Lindor and Reyes gives them more at-bats with a runner on base which is to their advantage. If the leadoff guy hits a home run, so much the better because you already have the run as opposed to hoping it gets driven in.

 

[Derek]

aOBP% subtracts out HR to reveal how often these guys are actually on base for the guys behind them.

So, Hernandez actually increases the PA with guys on base for the batters behind him (even if it's just slightly), while batting Santana 4th would lead to at least a 40% increase in plate appearances he'd have with runners on base. Admittedly, Hernandez would create about 15 extra outs on the year, but I think that is more than offset by putting Santana is a position to hit with far more runners on base.



You have to look at multiple seasons. A single season's numbers have proven to be a poor predictor of future performance.