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2020 Lineup Discussion

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Maybe Tito agrees that the leadoff hitter should be the guy with the highest career OBP who is not a home run hitter.

seems to me that francona's usage of rajai davis in the past indicates that francona places a fair premium on guys whose ability to steal a base can disrupt the concentration on the opposing pitcher; despite davis' low OBP francona had davis leading off a fair amount of the time. that past history has me expecting francona to use deshields in the same way, though i have no idea as to the degree since mercado, luplow, reyes & d. santana all hit RH.
 
seems to me that francona's usage of rajai davis in the past indicates that francona places a fair premium on guys whose ability to steal a base can disrupt the concentration on the opposing pitcher; despite davis' low OBP francona had davis leading off a fair amount of the time. that past history has me expecting francona to use deshields in the same way, though i have no idea as to the degree since mercado, luplow, reyes & d. santana all hit RH.
You might want to double check how Tito used Rajai in 2016. Davis started only 107 games (57 vs RH, 50 vs LH). He leadoff the game a total of 69 times on the year.

Santana leadoff for the team the majority of the season (86 gms) but Tito didn't make that move until sometime in April IIRC. Carlos would generally hit 5th if a there was LH starting pitcher & in that case Davis was back into the leadoff spot. For the record both Kipnis & Lindor lead off 1 game each in 2016.

Stealing bases was not the key. Getting on base for those behind was the key
 
aOBP% subtracts out HR to reveal how often these guys are actually on base for the guys behind them.

So, Hernandez actually increases the PA with guys on base for the batters behind him (even if it's just slightly), while batting Santana 4th would lead to at least a 40% increase in plate appearances he'd have with runners on base. Admittedly, Hernandez would create about 15 extra outs on the year, but I think that is more than offset by putting Santana is a position to hit with far more runners on base.

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You have to look at multiple seasons. A single season's numbers have proven to be a poor predictor of future performance.
I'm very impressed at the time you're taking to put together those charts. Are you not going to work for some reason?

What I'm struggling with is that (if I understand you correctly), if Santana would have hit 4 home runs and 30 singles last year instead of 34 home runs he would have been a better leadoff hitter because his aOBP would have been higher since he got on base 30 more times "for the guys behind him".

OK, but is it better to hit a home run and have a guaranteed run or to hit a single and be on base so you can possibly be driven in?

As for the 15 extra outs per season Hernandez makes, I'm not sure about that. Last year Hernandez had 667 PA's and made 445 outs. He got on base 222 times, hence his .333 OBP. Santana had 686 PA's and made 414 outs. So Hernandez made 31 more outs in 19 fewer at-bats. Give him the 19 additional at-bats which equates to 13 more outs and he ends up making 44 more outs than Santana, not 15.

Unless you're counting Santana's home runs as outs because he didn't get on base.

That’s 44 more times Santana would be on base with Hosey, Lindor and Reyes coming up, meaning more runs would be scored with Santana hitting leadoff than Hernandez. There would be fewer solo home runs hit by those guys.

But on the other hand, Santana hit 20 more home runs than Hernandez and it’s reasonable to say that if he were hitting leadoff more of those home runs would be solo shots than if he were hitting, say, 4th. So it’s a trade-off.

I don’t think you can demonstrate the team would score more runs with Hernandez leading off than Santana. I can’t prove it’s the other way, though, although I think it is.

If it’s the same either way then I want the better hitter getting more at-bats. Moving Santana from cleanup to leadoff gives him 52 more PA's based on your 2019 PA chart. Dropping Hernandez from 1st to 7th gives him 102 fewer PA's. Reyes would move up a spot, giving him 20 more PA's and whoever hits 6th would get a few more. Basically Hernandez loses 102 PA’s and Santana and Reyes get most of them. I’m pretty happy with that.

I feel we’re talking apples and oranges here since you insist on tossing out the 2019 numbers for both players and going with either their career numbers or their 2016-18 numbers. These guys both had close to 700 PA’s last year. That's a lot of data to throw away, especially since it's the most recent data. But if we can’t agree on that I guess we just won’t agree, which is OK.
 
I'm very impressed at the time you're taking to put together those charts. Are you not going to work for some reason?

What I'm struggling with is that (if I understand you correctly), if Santana would have hit 4 home runs and 30 singles last year instead of 34 home runs he would have been a better leadoff hitter because his aOBP would have been higher since he got on base 30 more times "for the guys behind him".

OK, but is it better to hit a home run and have a guaranteed run or to hit a single and be on base so you can possibly be driven in?

As for the 15 extra outs per season Hernandez makes, I'm not sure about that. Last year Hernandez had 667 PA's and made 445 outs. He got on base 222 times, hence his .333 OBP. Santana had 686 PA's and made 414 outs. So Hernandez made 31 more outs in 19 fewer at-bats. Give him the 19 additional at-bats which equates to 13 more outs and he ends up making 44 more outs than Santana, not 15.

Unless you're counting Santana's home runs as outs because he didn't get on base.

That’s 44 more times Santana would be on base with Hosey, Lindor and Reyes coming up, meaning more runs would be scored with Santana hitting leadoff than Hernandez. There would be fewer solo home runs hit by those guys.

But on the other hand, Santana hit 20 more home runs than Hernandez and it’s reasonable to say that if he were hitting leadoff more of those home runs would be solo shots than if he were hitting, say, 4th. So it’s a trade-off.

I don’t think you can demonstrate the team would score more runs with Hernandez leading off than Santana. I can’t prove it’s the other way, though, although I think it is.

If it’s the same either way then I want the better hitter getting more at-bats. Moving Santana from cleanup to leadoff gives him 52 more PA's based on your 2019 PA chart. Dropping Hernandez from 1st to 7th gives him 102 fewer PA's. Reyes would move up a spot, giving him 20 more PA's and whoever hits 6th would get a few more. Basically Hernandez loses 102 PA’s and Santana and Reyes get most of them. I’m pretty happy with that.

I feel we’re talking apples and oranges here since you insist on tossing out the 2019 numbers for both players and going with either their career numbers or their 2016-18 numbers. These guys both had close to 700 PA’s last year. That's a lot of data to throw away, especially since it's the most recent data. But if we can’t agree on that I guess we just won’t agree, which is OK.
Obviously if you hit more home runs instead of singles, you're a better hitter.

The person who can do that should bat as often as possible with other runners on base.

Nobody is slighting Santana for his home runs. We're saying that a home run results in the guy not being on base. So, the XBH potential of the guys following him results in fewer expected runs.

It's really basic, right?
 
I'm very impressed at the time you're taking to put together those charts. Are you not going to work for some reason?

What I'm struggling with is that (if I understand you correctly), if Santana would have hit 4 home runs and 30 singles last year instead of 34 home runs he would have been a better leadoff hitter because his aOBP would have been higher since he got on base 30 more times "for the guys behind him".

OK, but is it better to hit a home run and have a guaranteed run or to hit a single and be on base so you can possibly be driven in?

As for the 15 extra outs per season Hernandez makes, I'm not sure about that. Last year Hernandez had 667 PA's and made 445 outs. He got on base 222 times, hence his .333 OBP. Santana had 686 PA's and made 414 outs. So Hernandez made 31 more outs in 19 fewer at-bats. Give him the 19 additional at-bats which equates to 13 more outs and he ends up making 44 more outs than Santana, not 15.

Unless you're counting Santana's home runs as outs because he didn't get on base.

That’s 44 more times Santana would be on base with Hosey, Lindor and Reyes coming up, meaning more runs would be scored with Santana hitting leadoff than Hernandez. There would be fewer solo home runs hit by those guys.

But on the other hand, Santana hit 20 more home runs than Hernandez and it’s reasonable to say that if he were hitting leadoff more of those home runs would be solo shots than if he were hitting, say, 4th. So it’s a trade-off.

I don’t think you can demonstrate the team would score more runs with Hernandez leading off than Santana. I can’t prove it’s the other way, though, although I think it is.

If it’s the same either way then I want the better hitter getting more at-bats. Moving Santana from cleanup to leadoff gives him 52 more PA's based on your 2019 PA chart. Dropping Hernandez from 1st to 7th gives him 102 fewer PA's. Reyes would move up a spot, giving him 20 more PA's and whoever hits 6th would get a few more. Basically Hernandez loses 102 PA’s and Santana and Reyes get most of them. I’m pretty happy with that.

I feel we’re talking apples and oranges here since you insist on tossing out the 2019 numbers for both players and going with either their career numbers or their 2016-18 numbers. These guys both had close to 700 PA’s last year. That's a lot of data to throw away, especially since it's the most recent data. But if we can’t agree on that I guess we just won’t agree, which is OK.

You're acting like I'm trading HR for singles when that is not the case at all. The HR are still occurring, they're just occurring with more guys on base, which is the goal. Yes, if Santana turned his 34 HR into 34 singles, he would be the best lead-off hitter in the league, but a worse hitter overall. I'm not contending that Hernandez is a better hitter than Santana, simply that he is a better lead-off option.

You're too focused on a single season where Hernandez was at the worst he's been in the last 5 years (but still solid) and Santana had by far the best year of his career. Betting on either of those to repeat is not wise. Betting on them both to repeat is foolish.

That's where our numbers are differing. You're treating Santana like he is a .397 OBP% guy, he's not. You're treating Hernandez like he's a .333 OBP% guy, he's not. It's not a coincidence that each of their cumulative stat lines from 2017-19 line up with their career averages. You're not looking at a large enough data set. Hernandez is a .350 OBP% guy and Santana is a .370 OBP% guy. That's two extra outs per 100 PA extrapolated to 750 PA is 15 outs. If you believe Santana will hit at least 15 extra HR than Hernandez, then Hernandez will actually be on base more for the hitters behind him.

I have not once tossed out the 2019 numbers. You keep saying this, but it's not true. They are solidly in the data set I presented. I have merely stated that a single season of production is a poor predictor of performance moving forward. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that each guy performs closer to their career averages than it is for them to perform at last year's levels.

PS, I'm a teacher that has pre-recorded lessons and simply has to answer student e-mails all day.
 
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I ran two lineups through a 50,000 game simulator called SEQNZR

1. Hernandez
2. Ramirez
3. Lindor
4. Santana, C
5. Reyes
6. Luplow
7. Santana, D
8. Perez
9. Mercado

and

1. Santana, C
2. Ramirez
3. Lindor
4. Reyes
5. Luplow
6. Santana, D
7. Hernandez
8. Perez
9. Mercado

and they returned the exact same runs/game...
 
I ran two lineups through a 50,000 game simulator called SEQNZR

1. Hernandez
2. Ramirez
3. Lindor
4. Santana, C
5. Reyes
6. Luplow
7. Santana, D
8. Perez
9. Mercado

and

1. Santana, C
2. Ramirez
3. Lindor
4. Reyes
5. Luplow
6. Santana, D
7. Hernandez
8. Perez
9. Mercado

and they returned the exact same runs/game...

Just because I’m curious. Can you run:

Hernandez
Santana
Lindor
Ramirez
Reyes
D. Santana
Luplow
Perez
Mercado
 
Just because I’m curious. Can you run:

Hernandez
Santana
Lindor
Ramirez
Reyes
D. Santana
Luplow
Perez
Mercado

That was my last free one and it increased the runs per game by .02!

You win!
 
That was my last free one and it increased the runs per game by .02!

You win!

Well shit!

But really, that's the lineup I want to roll with. Platoon Luplow and Naquin, have a lefty bat that can platoon DH with D. Santana every once in a while (or take over should we cut him loose) and have a huge wildcard with speed at the 9 that can potentially be there for Carlos Santana when we roll the lineup over.
 
I ran two lineups through a 50,000 game simulator called SEQNZR

1. Hernandez
2. Ramirez
3. Lindor
4. Santana, C
5. Reyes
6. Luplow
7. Santana, D
8. Perez
9. Mercado

and

1. Santana, C
2. Ramirez
3. Lindor
4. Reyes
5. Luplow
6. Santana, D
7. Hernandez
8. Perez
9. Mercado

and they returned the exact same runs/game...
I believe it. I thought the benefit of having the superior hitter getting more plate appearances would outweigh the detriment of him hitting more solo home runs, but your game simulator says it's the same either way so I'll go with that.

In that case it's probably better to not have a 34-year-old leading off. It's only 52 fewer plate appearances but it might help him stay fresher.

Let's hope Hernandez gets back to the .350 OBP level. His OBP has declined two years in a row, from .371 to .333. He's only 29 so it's not age. But I'm concerned.

I'm optimistic Santana can stay in the .390s because he changed his approach to hitting more balls up the middle. The improvement was huge and finally got him to the All-Star game so he won't be going back now.
 
Just because I’m curious. Can you run:

Hernandez
Santana
Lindor
Ramirez
Reyes
D. Santana
Luplow
Perez
Mercado
Do you have Naquin in for Luplow against RHP's or is Luplow playing every day? If he is then you've got five right-handed batters in a row and it will be more important to alternate lefties and righties as much as possible with the three-batter rule. Which is why I like having a switch hitter bat 7th.
 
Do you have Naquin in for Luplow against RHP's or is Luplow playing every day? If he is then you've got five right-handed batters in a row and it will be more important to alternate lefties and righties as much as possible with the three-batter rule. Which is why I like having a switch hitter bat 7th.

Literally right above you...
 
Bill James ran computer lineup simulations many years ago. (When he was still writing the "Abstract".) His conclusion was that lineup order had a negligible effect, even when the "worst possible" lineups were run. (Situational lineup Selection is another matter.)
 
Bill James ran computer lineup simulations many years ago. (When he was still writing the "Abstract".) His conclusion was that lineup order had a negligible effect, even when the "worst possible" lineups were run. (Situational lineup Selection is another matter.)
I think lineup order can be important for individual players. Some guys hit better with runners on or vice versa. I noticed this from Hoynes’ column on Naquin today:

Part of Naquin’s success came from manager Terry Francona’s strategy of putting Naquin near the bottom of the batting order regardless of how well he was hitting at the time. Naquin started 39 of his 89 games in the No. 9 spot in the order, with Francisco Lindor following him at the top of the lineup.

“I’m getting stuff to hit because you don’t want to get to Frankie with somebody on base,” Naquin said after launching a monster two-run homer against Kansas City in July.


If Jake Bauers gets into the lineup this year, for example, I would bat him 9th in an effort to get him more good pitches to hit. It might help him have some success and boost his confidence which leads to more success. Having him hit 5th or 6th where there is pressure to drive in runs and pitchers are pitching around Reyes and Santana to get to him would not be the best approach, IMO.

That’s why I like putting Santana in the lead-off spot. It will help the #9 hitter more than if Hernandez was leading off. And Hernandez hit very well in the #7 hole last year, suggesting that he feels comfortable hitting with men on base where he can be aggressive as opposed to trying to just get on. But I admit that other approaches could work just as well. Maybe all of them, if James' analysis is correct.
 

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