• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

2020 Lineup Discussion

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
You know you are ready for the season when their is pages on how they should setup the lineup with stats to support their points!

Honestly at the end of the day both points of view works, but like @Derek said, Francona doesn't always go with the analytical best approach, he just goes with his own system at the end of the day.

@Derek is your lineup simulator take into account pitching hands? Since someone like Luplow and Naquins career stats could effect things in a sense. Also I wonder how this lineup would do:

Lindor
Hernandez
Ramirez
C. Santana
Reyes
Naquin
Mercado
Perez
Bauers

I have a hunch Francona is going to go that way against RH hitters. While Luplow and D. Santana get in the lineup against LH.
 
I’d be surprised if they gave Bauers the strong side of the platoon with Domingo Santana and also if they don’t bat Mercado 9th.

Would also be shocking if they limited Luplow to the same role as last year.
 
I’d be surprised if they gave Bauers the strong side of the platoon with Domingo Santana and also if they don’t bat Mercado 9th.

Would also be shocking if they limited Luplow to the same role as last year.

With the extra bat on the bench, I see Luplow getting a lot of pinch hit/def sub as well if guys like Reyes, D. Santana and Bauers are in the OF. Its actually quite possible Luplow gets in majority of the games even if he only gets half the ABs of the regulars
 
With the extra bat on the bench, I see Luplow getting a lot of pinch hit/def sub as well if guys like Reyes, D. Santana and Bauers are in the OF. Its actually quite possible Luplow gets in majority of the games even if he only gets half the ABs of the regulars
I don't see Bauers or Domingo getting much run in the OF at all this year. There's already a number crunch with Mercado, DeShields, Naquin, Luplow, Reyes that will likely overflow into the DH spot at times.

They might do something like this (this is a prediction, not what I'd do):

vs RHP
OF - Naquin
OF - Mercado
OF - Luplow/Reyes
DH - Reyes/Domingo
probably depends on the match up on when Luplow plays

vs LHP
OF - DeShields
OF - Mercado
OF - Luplow
DH - Reyes
 
I don't see Bauers or Domingo getting much run in the OF at all this year. There's already a number crunch with Mercado, DeShields, Naquin, Luplow, Reyes that will likely overflow into the DH spot at times.

They might do something like this (this is a prediction, not what I'd do):

vs RHP
OF - Naquin
OF - Mercado
OF - Luplow/Reyes
DH - Reyes/Domingo
probably depends on the match up on when Luplow plays

vs LHP
OF - DeShields
OF - Mercado
OF - Luplow
DH - Reyes
What's the point of having Domingo Santana if you're not going to play him against lefties?

I expect Domingo to be the every day DH, Reyes in right, Mercado in center, and a Luplow/Naquin platoon in left. DeShields is the late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement.

The odd thing about a Naquin/Luplow platoon is that Naquin hit lefties better than righties last year and Tito is on record as saying Luplow has earned the opportunity to show what he can do against RHPs.
 
What's the point of having Domingo Santana if you're not going to play him against lefties?

I expect Domingo to be the every day DH, Reyes in right, Mercado in center, and a Luplow/Naquin platoon in left. DeShields is the late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement.

The odd thing about a Naquin/Luplow platoon is that Naquin hit lefties better than righties last year and Tito is on record as saying Luplow has earned the opportunity to show what he can do against RHPs.
The signed him at barely above a minor league deal, and it's not like Domingo has crazy splits where he smashes lefties. So, I'll just say that if Domingo is everyday DH then I will have lost some faith in Tito. I see Domingo as a bench bat that slides into the lineup when someone inevitably gets hurt.

Naquin also had all of 71 PA against lefties last year, so his exposure was very limited. Not nearly enough of a sample size to know anything at all. I'm not saying he can't hit lefties, but we certainly have better options.

I also know this about Luplow, which is why I started this whole conversation by saying I'd be shocked if he was limited to hitting against just lefties as he was last year.
 
The signed him at barely above a minor league deal, and it's not like Domingo has crazy splits where he smashes lefties. So, I'll just say that if Domingo is everyday DH then I will have lost some faith in Tito. I see Domingo as a bench bat that slides into the lineup when someone inevitably gets hurt.

Naquin also had all of 71 PA against lefties last year, so his exposure was very limited. Not nearly enough of a sample size to know anything at all. I'm not saying he can't hit lefties, but we certainly have better options.

I also know this about Luplow, which is why I started this whole conversation by saying I'd be shocked if he was limited to hitting against just lefties as he was last year.

Domingo actually had better % numbers against lefties. Not really a whole ton different but his walk rate, extra base hits etc was better overall. I think he does hit lefties better than right handers, but not enough to care about making him a platoon only guy.

Luplow and Naquin will get days off against strong guys, but honestly I feel like both will get a chance this season to prove they shouldn't be platoon guys. Now it's up to them though to prove it when they get the chance
 
Domingo actually had better % numbers against lefties. Not really a whole ton different but his walk rate, extra base hits etc was better overall. I think he does hit lefties better than right handers, but not enough to care about making him a platoon only guy.

Luplow and Naquin will get days off against strong guys, but honestly I feel like both will get a chance this season to prove they shouldn't be platoon guys. Now it's up to them though to prove it when they get the chance
The difference between Domingo numbers against lefties and righties is quite minor like you said (and like I said initially).

As for the bolded, I'm just not sure how that's possible. With the numbers we have, only one of them can get a real chance and I choose the guy we have under control for an extra three years (Luplow).
 
You might want to double check how Tito used Rajai in 2016. Davis started only 107 games (57 vs RH, 50 vs LH). He leadoff the game a total of 69 times on the year.

Santana leadoff for the team the majority of the season (86 gms) but Tito didn't make that move until sometime in April IIRC. Carlos would generally hit 5th if a there was LH starting pitcher & in that case Davis was back into the leadoff spot. For the record both Kipnis & Lindor lead off 1 game each in 2016.

Stealing bases was not the key. Getting on base for those behind was the key
um... fair does not mean majority.

also, you might want to read what francona actually said in past articles on cleveland dot com explaining why he had davis leading off. but if facts get in your way, whatever.
 
knowing how francona loves mixing and matching, assuming freeman makes the final roster, it wouldn't surprise me to see the LH hitting freeman get a small amount of OF time against RHP, particularly when freeman has good career stats against an opposing starting pitcher. if someone in the INF gets hurt, freeman moves to the INF and someone replaces him in the OF.

and i revise my opinion of where to put mercado in the lineup; last year he hit .320 with men on base (RISP or just a man on 1B) and only .238 with no one on. it makes more sense to put him behind santana and jram and their higher OBP's and maximize the chances of scoring those guys when they've had an extra base hit but not a HR - or if they're on first and you want to keep the rally going. he also hit .320 with 2 out last season as a rookie.
 
knowing how francona loves mixing and matching, assuming freeman makes the final roster, it wouldn't surprise me to see the LH hitting freeman get a small amount of OF time against RHP, particularly when freeman has good career stats against an opposing starting pitcher. if someone in the INF gets hurt, freeman moves to the INF and someone replaces him in the OF.

and i revise my opinion of where to put mercado in the lineup; last year he hit .320 with men on base (RISP or just a man on 1B) and only .238 with no one on. it makes more sense to put him behind santana and jram and their higher OBP's and maximize the chances of scoring those guys when they've had an extra base hit but not a HR - or if they're on first and you want to keep the rally going. he also hit .320 with 2 out last season as a rookie.
Mercado was outstanding with RISP last year but I think a big part of that was hitting 2nd in the order with Hosey, Santana, and Puig or Reyes coming up behind him. Pitchers went at him in those situations not wanting to put another runner on and face a more dangerous hitter. If he hit down in the order his numbers might not be quite as impressive.

However, there are no weak spots in the lineup. Even if Mercado bats 8th with Perez 9th, Roberto is no longer an automatic out. Pitchers would not want to walk Mercado and put him on first base given his ability to swipe a bag and Berto's ability to hit to right field with the first baseman holding Mercado.

I think Oscar will do great hitting 2nd again or down in the order. He'll get good pitches to hit in either spot, but probably more in the 2-hole, especially if Hernandez leads off and Oscar is hitting in front of Frankie, Carlos, Hosey, and Reyes.
 
With all this talk of situational splits, I think it's important to take a look at some data:


“Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

  • 60 PA: Strikeout rate
  • 120 PA: Walk rate
  • 240 PA: HBP rate
  • 290 PA: Single rate
  • 1610 PA: XBH rate
  • 170 PA: HR rate
  • 910 AB: AVG
  • 460 PA: OBP
  • 320 AB: SLG
  • 160 AB: ISO
  • 80 BIP: GB rate
  • 80 BIP: FB rate
  • 600 BIP: LD rate
  • 50 FBs: HR per FB
  • 820 BIP: BABIP

So, when you're looking at how players did with RISP or how they performed when batting in a certain place in the order you should be aware that those numbers were produced in a sample size far to small to actually draw any conclusions.


EDIT: Lineup protection is also a myth
 
Last edited:
Mercado was outstanding with RISP last year but I think a big part of that was hitting 2nd in the order with Hosey, Santana, and Puig or Reyes coming up behind him. Pitchers went at him in those situations not wanting to put another runner on and face a more dangerous hitter. If he hit down in the order his numbers might not be quite as impressive.

i see your point, this might explain why his numbers with only a runner on first and with RISP are virtually identical: about .320 with an OBP of .360 while his OBP with no one on base plummeted to about .280. might mercado be more effective hitting when the pitcher can't use a full windup? and given that franco is a threat to steal, might mercado might see more fastballs? mercado is one of the few players whose splits hitting 1-0 and 0-1 are fairly even while even for hitters like santana, it can mean 100 points off the BA hitting 0-1 instead of 1-0. having said that, there are situations where you may *not* want to run when you have a power hitter at bat and stealing just gives the opponent more reason to issue an intentional walk and create the possible force at any base except home. this was a problem when the #5 spot was an offensive black hole and our cleanup guy got pitched around a lot.
 
I don't really care about OPS+ when it comes to my lead-off hitter. That's more of a measure of an all-around hitter. You don't want your best hitter in that spot because it's the only spot in the lineup that is guaranteed to bat with the bases empty at least once each game.

I don't see Hernandez's OBP% as a trend, I see last year as an outlier, which is why I said to look at the three seasons prior to 2019 (2016-2018). He was coming off a career-high walk rate in 2018 (13.4%) after back to back years of it being over 10%, and then it suddenly dropped to 6.7%. That looks like an outlier to me, not a trend. In fact, 2016-18, Hernandez had a better OBP% than Santana in each season.

I want to arrange the lineup in such a way that our best players come to the plate with the most possible guys on base. I believe putting Hernandez in the lead-off spot accomplishes that.

2019
OrderPABases empty% with Bases emptyRunners on% with Runners on
175050266.9%24833.1%
273644360.2%29339.8%
371641558.0%30142.0%
469835651.0%34249.0%
567837455.2%30444.8%
666136254.8%29945.2%
764835955.4%28944.6%
862334054.6%28345.4%
961435858.3%25641.7%

What I have created here is a chart that shows the opportunities each spot in the lineup got on last year's team.

Here is 2018's team
OrderPABases empty% with Bases emptyRunners on% with Runners on
177451967.1%25532.9%
275544058.3%31541.7%
373038853.2%34246.8%
471334047.7%37352.3%
570337653.5%32746.5%
668439657.9%28842.1%
766836354.3%30545.7%
864535054.3%29545.7%
962835456.4%27443.6%

I can't find a way to justify having Santana or Lindor leading off and having such a significantly lower percentage of their plate appearances occur with runners on base.
Bump
 
Sounds like we should expect:

1. Hernandez - 2B
2. Ramirez - 3B
3. Lindor - SS
4. Santana - 1B
5. Reyes - OF/DH

How do we fill out the rest?

- Naquin should be good to go now, so I think it should be a priority to have him AND Luplow in the lineup 4-5 times each week.

- Roberto is down there somewhere.

- Mercado in some capacity (maybe in a timeshare?)

- Domingo fits in somewhere, but I see him as more of a "2-3 starts per week" guy.

Personally, I'd like something like this:

6. Naquin/Luplow - RF/LF
7. Luplow/Naquin - LF/RF
8. Perez - C
9. Mercado - CF

I think you get Domingo in the lineup 2-3x each week by sitting Naquin against a lefty and Luplow against a righty or two.

If they're confident that Zimmer's swing changes are going to produce real results, he should get one of the starts when Luplow or Naquin sits and another to give Mercado a day off each week.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-13: "Backup Bash Brothers"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:11: "Clipping Bucks."
Top