2020 Lineup Discussion

[Urban]

Unless they have a Castellanos-like impact, I don't really qualify short-term rental players like Puig as a loss. Thought the same with Bruce and Donaldson

 

[Derek]

Puig's OPS+ was 109 during his time here. Who among Bauers/DeShields/Zimmer/Johnson/Allen iz going to match that?

Yeah, for two months. That’s not an accurate representation of what we got from our OF last year. Look at our OF numbers from the entire year.

 

[Derek]

You're avoiding the question. Kluber missed a ton of time last year, but we're comparing this year's roster to last year's. Kluber was in our rotation last year.

But he didn’t actually help us win any games!

Our primary starters last year were:
Bieber
Bauer (not 100% then traded)
Clev (missed a dozen starts)
Plutko
Plesac

This year’s starters:
Bieber
Clev
Carrasco
Cibale
Plesac

should provide an upgrade over what we got from our starters last year.

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

You're avoiding the question. Kluber missed a ton of time last year, but we're comparing this year's roster to last year's. Kluber was in our rotation last year.

No I'm not, and your question is pointless. If its 2019 Kluber or those guys, any of those guys. 2019 Kluber spent the majority of the season not able to pitch. Why would anyone pick that option?

 

[AZ_]

Puig's OPS+ was 109 during his time here. Who among Bauers/DeShields/Zimmer/Johnson/Allen iz going to match that?

Arguably Luplow in a full-time role, Bauers or Johnson all have that potential.

 

[Steve_424]

No I'm not, and your question is pointless. If its 2019 Kluber or those guys, any of those guys. 2019 Kluber spent the majority of the season not able to pitch. Why would anyone pick that option?

Because we're discussing which roster and team is better. Losing Kluber downgrades the projected rotation for 2020.

Arguably Luplow in a full-time role, Bauers or Johnson all have that potential.

I just don't see it with Bauers. I hope Luplow can do it, but I just don't see that either. I admittedly have only seen Johnson a handful of times.

 

[BMAN]

Just let the young guns battle it out for those spots and see what happens. Worse case scenario is we get someone at the trade deadline. Our lineup was a lot more brutal to start the year last year and we still were in it until the end.

 

[AZ_]

Because we're discussing which roster and team is better. Losing Kluber downgrades the projected rotation for 2020.



I just don't see it with Bauers. I hope Luplow can do it, but I just don't see that either. I admittedly have only seen Johnson a handful of times.

Bauers is 24, younger than Mercado.

 

[Derek]

Let me try to better break down what I'm saying.

Here's the production we got from each position last year using wRC+ (100 is league average) and fangraphs positional splits.

C - 85
1B - 111
2B - 82
3B - 95
SS - 99
LF - 86
CF - 78
RF - 113
DH - 75

Here's who we have coming back this year with their projected wRC+ via ZIPS (which is usually very conservative)

Perez - 79
Santana - 115
Hernandez - 91
Ramirez - 130
Lindor - 126
Luplow - 101
Mercado - 81
Reyes - 114

Then for the last spot, we have:
Zimmer - 80
Bradley - 87
Naquin - 93
Johnson - 82
Bauers - 86
Deshields - 65
Allen - 74

Just having a healthier team than last year should lead to a sizable jump in production. ZIPS is pretty down on Mercado, but I'm anticipating a decent jump out of him.

 

[Urban]

When discussing if the rotation is better than last year, I wouldn't even factor in Kluber at all. Yes, I'd 100% prefer him over Civale, Plesac, Plutko, etc. but he contributed next to nothing from a sample size and positive production standpoint. And 1000% the rotation on paper looked far stronger at this point a year ago, but that's not what Derek is saying

If you want to point at a pitcher, it should be Trevor Bauer. Everyone was disappointed with his performance because his 2018 was so great, but Bauer gave the Indians 156 innings with a 3.79 ERA over the first 4 months of the season. The Plesac, Plutko, Civale group helped pick up the slack when he was traded and it's certainly fair to say they were all pitching over their heads for much of the season.

But as Derek mentioned: Clevinger, even with a dip in some numbers, should be more valuable if he can make 30+ starts vs. his 21 last season. I suspect Bieber to be more or less what he was last season. Cookie is a huge question mark but he doesn't have to do much to be more valuable than he was last season.

 

[Steve_424]

Bauers is 24, younger than Mercado.

Sure, but Mercado has shown something, Bauers hasn't to this point.

Let me try to better break down what I'm saying.

Here's the production we got from each position last year using wRC+ (100 is league average) and fangraphs positional splits.

C - 85
1B - 111
2B - 82
3B - 95
SS - 99
LF - 86
CF - 78
RF - 113
DH - 75

Here's who we have coming back this year with their projected wRC+ via ZIPS (which is usually very conservative)

Perez - 79
Santana - 115
Hernandez - 91
Ramirez - 130
Lindor - 126
Luplow - 101
Mercado - 81
Reyes - 114

Then for the last spot, we have:
Zimmer - 80
Bradley - 87
Naquin - 93
Johnson - 82
Bauers - 86
Deshields - 65
Allen - 74

Just having a healthier team than last year should lead to a sizable jump in production. ZIPS is pretty down on Mercado, but I'm anticipating a decent jump out of him.

I think maybe we're arguing different things here. You're looking at the 2019 season as a whole - so yeah, LF is going to look "upgraded" since Bauers played a ton of time there in 2019 and was awful. I'm looking at our roster at the end of 2019 and our roster now, and I don't think the roster now is better. Certainly there is an argument to be made that 2020's is better, but to say there's "no debate" - which was my original point pf contention - just doesn't add up to me.

Side note, Puig is projected for a 111 wRC+. A reasonable 1 year deal - should he be agreeable to it - makes a ton of sense for both sides.

 

[Steve_424]

Just let the young guns battle it out for those spots and see what happens. Worse case scenario is we get someone at the trade deadline. Our lineup was a lot more brutal to start the year last year and we still were in it until the end.

I don't agree with this line of thought. Make the upgrade now. Maybe if the Indians had done that last year instead of at the deadline, they would've made the postseason.

 

[Urban]

Notable from Zach Meisel's latest piece: Elsewhere on the recovery front: Tyler Naquin is aiming to return as close to Opening Day as possible. He walked through the halls of the convention center without a limp on Saturday, and he said he has started running and hitting in recent weeks.

 

[Otsego Mar]

Really? I see us as favorites in the Central right now.

No, I’m not confident in Bauers, but I am confident that out of Bauers/Zimmer/Bradley/Johnson, somebody will step up as a positive contributor.

And yes, I’m confident Luplow will be a good everyday bat, if given the opportunity.

As far as maximizing Lindor’s remaining time here, I believe we are. He’s not LeBron James or anything. He’s just another cog in our success. One of the bigger ones, sure, but I don’t expect any drop off once he’s gone.

You, sir, are one confident man of Cleveland lore and honor.

 

[Derek]

Sure, but Mercado has shown something, Bauers hasn't to this point.




I think maybe we're arguing different things here. You're looking at the 2019 season as a whole - so yeah, LF is going to look "upgraded" since Bauers played a ton of time there in 2019 and was awful. I'm looking at our roster at the end of 2019 and our roster now, and I don't think the roster now is better. Certainly there is an argument to be made that 2020's is better, but to say there's "no debate" - which was my original point pf contention - just doesn't add up to me.

Side note, Puig is projected for a 111 wRC+. A reasonable 1 year deal - should he be agreeable to it - makes a ton of sense for both sides.

I agree that we’re arguing different things.

I’m more concerned about having a better roster this year than we did throughout 2019.

So, for me, Reyes is still an addition to this roster. You saying that the outfield only looks upgraded because Bauers was out there slap dicking around for a good chunk of the season (as was Carlos Gonzalez and Leonys Martin), but that's kind of my point.

We spent a large part of the season with subpar production at a lot of key spots (Stamets, Moroff, Hanley, etc...) and at least as of now, it doesn't look like we'll have to do that.

I would be perfectly fine bringing back Puig on a 1-year deal on the cheap, but I also know that at some point we're going to need to give some of these guys a legit chance or our team will be hurting in the long run. I would like to see Zimmer, Bradley, Johnson or Bauers get a chance to play every day for the first couple of months.