2020 NBA Draft

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I'mWithDan

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You can see the effect more clearly looking at games against top-100 vs. non-top-100 teams (via RealGM):

Vs. top-100 (per-40): 23.7 points (66% true shooting), 9.0 boards, 2.4 assists, 2.6 stocks
Vs. non-top-100 (per-40): 27.5 points (71% true shooting), 10.3 boards, 3.1 assists, 2.9 stocks

Across the board, his stats are inflated by 10-20% against the weaker opponents. It's not a huge difference, but just one of several factors that's contributing to him being overrated, IMO. Eye-popping stats like 70% shooting on 2-pointers probably would've been impossible against a typical major-conference schedule.
I admittedly don't know what a reasonable spread is but that doesn't seem alarming. Or are there bigs in this draft posting considerably better numbers against top 100 comp? 24/9/2/3 on 66%TS strikes me as pretty damn good relative to his skillset but that is just a guess on my part. How do you see the split numbers referenced above?
 

MirORich

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This is what I wrote in another thread about Deni. I'm basically of the mind that in a draft where so much is an unknown, a high floor is more important than ever. Some might look at this draft in a vacuum and say, "well the high usage college guard has strong numbers, he has a high floor." Sure... which is why the Cavs took players like that two first rounds in a row. That's safe, but it doesn't get a team to the playoffs and doesn't win playoff games. Swingmen with balanced offensive and defensive skills win playoff games.

In today's NBA, the point guard doesn't just run the offense, the shooting guard doesn't just shoot, power forwards don't just defend the paint, and centers don't just block shots and score in the post. Those days are gone.

Today's NBA wants five guys who are long, athletic, and can do it all. Devi is one of those small forwards... and he looks like he is going to be really solid at it. Instead of putting up advanced stats against Louisville and Virginia Tech in regular season games, he was winning MVP of a men's league at age 19 as a 6'9 jack of all trades. He has produced on both ends of the court against grown men playing professional basketball.

Addressing the incredibly lazy argument built around stereotypes... okay fine, but I remain disappointed it needs to be said. Not every European swingman had the same production of Cedi going into the draft. They all have their own identity and future.

Time to start separating Cedi from every European wing prospect. They are all unique. Cedi was drafted at the top of the second round as a stash prospect who showed physical tools in the Euroleague at about 20 minutes a game as a teen.


Cavs fans got a little worked up in anticipation, but in the end he is limited on the defensive end and was put in the corner offensively pretty often. If you look at his European stats, he was a role player who has developed into an NBA role player. Poor guy shouldn't have been second on the team in minutes played, but they held rotation minutes for Windler.

Nobody is talking about Deni as a second rounder who gets stashed in Europe for two years.
I viewed my post more as an rambling of some irrational, anecdotal concerns about Deni being picked at 5, not as an argument against him. I fully understand that there is some problematic stuff behind part of what I brought up.

I also was not straight up comparing him to Cedi. I mentioned a triangulation of Cedi, Caspi, and Gallinari as three players(imo) of somewhat similar background professionally before they came into the league with somewhat similar height, length, builds and body types. (somewhat, not identical)

While I definitely value results in Euroleague and I appreciate that even in the Israeli league he was going up against grown men in mind/body, I still don’t know if I vire being the MVP of the Israeli league as being all that compelling a factor.

When is say “body type“ in reference to Deni, I do not mean it as coded language. I truly mean a combination of height, posture, how he moves, length, athleticism, etc. He can be a trailblazer but I’m not sure or a precedent/comparable player for him that goes beyond decent role player. Decent role player would not be the worse result by far at five, and again, he may prove that projection dead wrong. I’m just trying to sort out if I’d rather us take someone with a higher ceiling and similar to slightly lower floor, even if the odds of that other player reaching the higher ceiling are a little bit lower than the odds that Deni reaches his ceiling.

And of course how we even come to a determination over what exactly those ceilings and floors are and what the odds are of different players reaching or failing to reach their ceilings is well beyond my capabilities.
 

Randolphkeys

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When is say “body type“ in reference to Deni, I do not mean it as coded language. I truly mean a combination of height, posture, how he moves, length, athleticism, etc. He can be a trailblazer but I’m not sure or a precedent/comparable player for him that goes beyond decent role player. Decent role player would not be the worse result by far at five, and again, he may prove that projection dead wrong. I’m just trying to sort out if I’d rather us take someone with a higher ceiling and similar to slightly lower floor, even if the odds of that other player reaching the higher ceiling are a little bit lower than the odds that Deni reaches his ceiling.
I remember many of these arguments being held against Otto Porter when he came out of Georgetown. Deni has shorter arms, but he is also younger than Porter was going into the draft by two years. Neither is a high flyer or possesses a sick first step. If the Cavs are drafting a younger version of Otto Porter, someone who posseses a complete game at the small forward position on both sides of the court, I'd be happy to look past his ceiling.

 

RichieRichPaul

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I don't hate Vassell, but the idea that we should ignore ceiling and look for a solid defensive roleplayer at #5 is a wild one that I've rarely heard.
Ceilings are silly because literally 90% of players dont hit them. Just like player comps, jr smith got comp to MJ, lol

the ones that are going to hit are USUALLY identified pre draft, like zion and ja

So many dumb teams screw themselves w boom or bust prospects.

3&d wings are essential in the nba in 2020. When you have one staring you in the face who can instantly raise the team defense, you go for it. Make the smart pick, take the guy who does the things your players cant.
 

Nathan S

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I admittedly don't know what a reasonable spread is but that doesn't seem alarming. Or are there bigs in this draft posting considerably better numbers against top 100 comp? 24/9/2/3 on 66%TS strikes me as pretty damn good relative to his skillset but that is just a guess on my part. How do you see the split numbers referenced above?
Not saying his production varied with level of competition more than a typical prospect's production would vary. Just making the point that, yeah, for all prospects level of competition has an effect (source: https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Obi-Toppin/NCAA/121580). For comparison, Okongwu averaged 21 points per 40 on 64.5% true shooting, Carey averaged 29 points per 40 on 62% true shooting, and Nnaji and Stewart both averaged 21 points per 40 on 63% true shooting. Toppin's numbers are arguably superior, but it's not like he's on another planet or anything. Considering that his success hinges on him being an elite pure scorer, I expect more.

Ceilings are silly because literally 90% of players dont hit them. Just like player comps, jr smith got comp to MJ, lol

the ones that are going to hit are USUALLY identified pre draft, like zion and ja

So many dumb teams screw themselves w boom or bust prospects.

3&d wings are essential in the nba in 2020. When you have one staring you in the face who can instantly raise the team defense, you go for it. Make the smart pick, take the guy who does the things your players cant.
I'm not hating at all, just saying it's an uncommon take on the situation. I was all in on Grant Williams last year, who's a total defense/toughness/culture guy. Definitely see the value in a guy like Vassell.
 

Goldin Brown

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I know this is SUCH limited and regressive thinking, but I look at Deni, his body type, his profile as a Caucasian international player and I just don’t see a comparable success story that makes me excited about how his skills will translate here.

-Luka is a prodigy and unicorn
-Then there is a history of good quick smaller guards.
-There are the lots of successful skilled 7 footers

But Deni’s body type seems and athleticism seems to be in this in between SF/PF hybrid role and I’m not seeing the past examples of those guys from overseas being a success that my lazy mind wants.
Hedo and Peja come immediately to mind for me. Big skilled wings with playmaking ability are extremely valuable in this league. Even a guy like Joe Ingles is valuable in the league right now. I think Deni projects really well for this league, he may not be a star but he looks like he can be a really high level role player. Wouldn't be surprised if he went as high as 2 in this draft, would be an interesting fit on the Warriors.
 

MirORich

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Hedo and Peja come immediately to mind for me. Big skilled wings with playmaking ability are extremely valuable in this league. Even a guy like Joe Ingles is valuable in the league right now. I think Deni projects really well for this league, he may not be a star but he looks like he can be a really high level role player. Wouldn't be surprised if he went as high as 2 in this draft, would be an interesting fit on the Warriors.
Thanks. NGL Peja and Hedo didn’t even cross my mind. All this smoky weather out here has my memory blocked.
To be clear, I don’t think Deni will be a bad player. I’m just not certain I prefer him at 5
 

Randolphkeys

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Hedo and Peja come immediately to mind for me. Big skilled wings with playmaking ability are extremely valuable in this league. Even a guy like Joe Ingles is valuable in the league right now. I think Deni projects really well for this league, he may not be a star but he looks like he can be a really high level role player. Wouldn't be surprised if he went as high as 2 in this draft, would be an interesting fit on the Warriors.
Peja was a sniper, Deni is not. The Hedo comparison is right on though, offensively. He is a tall transition monster with great passing instincts, and competitive to his core. Once his shot jumps up to above average and he fills out, he can be a great third-best player on an NBA roster. Of course, it might not happen. That's the risk. In my opinion, this isn't a good draft so a guy with Hedo traits is a great investment at #5 if he is there.
 

Dshuks

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delaying the draft a month is just annoying
I don't really understand the logic in it. Like you can still delay the start of next season, and have the draft at the previous date. I don't see any real negatives in doing it that way.
 

MirORich

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Ah ok still annoying but at the very least more understandable.
Super annoying as fans of a team that hasn’t played a game or even had a practice report on almost 6 months now.
We’ve got to wait another TWO months till the draft. Probably another 3 months until training camp and another 4 months until the new season starts.
 

bleachkit

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I know this is SUCH limited and regressive thinking, but I look at Deni, his body type, his profile as a Caucasian international player and I just don’t see a comparable success story that makes me excited about how his skills will translate here.

-Luka is a prodigy and unicorn
-Then there is a history of good quick smaller guards.
-There are the lots of successful skilled 7 footers

But Deni’s body type seems and athleticism seems to be in this in between SF/PF hybrid role and I’m not seeing the past examples of those guys from overseas being a success that my lazy mind wants.

I keep thinking about some midpoint between Cedi, Caspi, and Gallinari. And while that would be a player worthy of being in a good teams top 8 rotation, I still want to aim for a higher ceiling at 5, even if it means someone who might be less likely to reach it. I still want that guy who’s upside could be as a legit top3 player on a high level team. I’m scared that a team with Deni as one of the three best players can not be a top contender. I understand the fallacy of thinking that other guys at 5 have a strong chance at that either, but I’m just expressing my gut feeling, even if the reasons behind it are somewhat shallow or anecdotal.

Ready for the criticisms on several fronts.
Why are you using race as part of your criteria? You are just revealing your own biases.
 

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