2020 NBA Draft

[Nathan S]

Who????

Yeah, I know. Not top-100 recruited, barely played last season. But he's been excellent so far this season. Here's how he stacks up against Green and Okoro per-100:

Vassell: 27.3 points (.50/.42/.76 shooting), 10.7 boards, 3.6 assists, 2.9 steals, 2.2 blocks, 1.8 turnovers, 3.6 fouls

Green: 21.9 points (.41/.31/.78 shooting), 8.2 boards, 4.4 assists, 2.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, 2.8 turnovers, 4.5 fouls

Okoro: 22.7 points (.51/.28/.67 shooting), 8.1 boards, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.7 blocks, 3.3 turnovers, 4.3 fouls

 

[Bulldog2Buckeye]

I just want a wing who can shoot. Literally any wing that can make over 35% of their 3s in the NBA will do. Good lord the Cavs have no spacing and if they take someone who’s a slasher that guy will struggle a lot

 

[ajz20]

What do people think of Devin Vassell? Arguably the best player on one of the best teams in the country, excellent efficiency and defensive numbers. I've seen him lurking in the teens and 20's of mocks, but he seems like he could go much higher given how fluid this draft is. He's among the youngest sophomores, turning 20 in late August.

I brought him up in a Non Draft thread. For a draft that looks like it is going to have a ton of busts, he looks safe as far being in the nba and having a role on both ends. He is probably not going top 10 but he may deserve to this year to be honest. He would be a great addition to the Cavs long term if he keeps progressing. It looks like he can’t create his own shot but that is fine, he can defend, finish, shoot, pass and rebound and has size and plays under control, which makes him valuable in a draft full of misfits. He will probably go in the teens and be a major steal for another team.

 

[ajz20]

I just want a wing who can shoot. Literally any wing that can make over 35% of their 3s in the NBA will do. Good lord the Cavs have no spacing and if they take someone who’s a slasher that guy will struggle a lot

They can’t use the mini back court and Cedi for extended minutes and win on a regular basis that is for sure. They need wings pretty badly.

 

[I'mWithDan]

What do people think of Devin Vassell? Arguably the best player on one of the best teams in the country, excellent efficiency and defensive numbers. I've seen him lurking in the teens and 20's of mocks, but he seems like he could go much higher given how fluid this draft is. He's among the youngest sophomores, turning 20 in late August.

I admittedly have been a bit more patient (or lazy) evaluating the class in a much broader sense.....I watched how much numbers changed throughout last year and have been waiting for the dust to settle a bit more before comprehensive lists. Prospects really tend to nose dive as the season grinds on and there's a lot more clarity in who separates.

With that said, here is how he shakes out in some of the things I look at (today):

SG - Good, + prospect
SF - Very Good, +++ prospect

I honestly have no clue what he is, I just ran his numbers......but at 6'6", I would assume he's a 2......but I did mention if he can be a 3 at the next level, he rightfully would be bumped up comparatively speaking. And if he can play the 3, if he sustains his current production, he suddenly becomes a possible top 5 pick if he tests well. That might sound surprising for a guy a bit off the radar but when NBA 3's hit certain college benchmarks in the many calculations I run, they are good players a vast majority of the time. If he's a 2, I think he's a possible top 10 guy if he keeps it up and tests well.

As a SG, he profiles most similarly to a Bradley Beal type. They have very similar efficiency numbers, in terms of PPFGA, 3P/PTS, PTS per 100, AST per 100, Rebounds per 100. The one area Beal was significantly better than Vassell is FTA/FGA......that is the flag I see with Vassell, that is mildly concerning about his scoring translating. It's kind of the difference between him being a Beal type on offense, who can create with the ball vs. a Klay type.....who's more of a high 3PT volume secondary scorer.

As a SF, he looks like Paul George light. I say light, because George had a better mix of FT generation / FT percentage, as well as a bit more defensive impact. But it is still high praise. As a 3, he'd slot as one of the top 10 prospects at the position, in the possession era.

He's certainly someone to keep an eye on as the season presses forward.

 

[Nathan S]

I admittedly have been a bit more patient (or lazy) evaluating the class in a much broader sense.....I watched how much numbers changed throughout last year and have been waiting for the dust to settle a bit more before comprehensive lists. Prospects really tend to nose dive as the season grinds on and there's a lot more clarity in who separates.

With that said, here is how he shakes out in some of the things I look at (today):

SG - Good, + prospect
SF - Very Good, +++ prospect

I honestly have no clue what he is, I just ran his numbers......but at 6'6", I would assume he's a 2......but I did mention if he can be a 3 at the next level, he rightfully would be bumped up comparatively speaking. And if he can play the 3, if he sustains his current production, he suddenly becomes a possible top 5 pick if he tests well. That might sound surprising for a guy a bit off the radar but when NBA 3's hit certain college benchmarks in the many calculations I run, they are good players a vast majority of the time. If he's a 2, I think he's a possible top 10 guy if he keeps it up and tests well.

As a SG, he looks a lot like a Bradley Beal type. They have very similar efficiency numbers, in terms of PPFGA, 3P/PTS, PTS per 100, AST per 100, Rebounds per 100. The one area Beal was significantly better than Vassell is FTA/FGA......that is the flag I see with Vassell, that is mildly concerning about his scoring translating. It's kind of the difference between him being a Beal type on offense, who can create with the ball vs. a Klay type.....who's more of a high 3PT volume secondary scorer.

As a SF, he looks like Paul George light. I say light, because George had a better mix of FT generation / FT percentage, as well as a bit more defensive impact. But it is still high praise. As a 3, he'd slot as one of the top 10 prospects at the position, in the possession era.

He's certainly someone to keep an eye on as the season presses forward.

Pretty much agree...lack of self-creation is the biggest negative. Tough to gauge his positional future, as his frame/athleticism clearly says SG, while his rebound/block numbers clearly say SF. 2:1 assist:TO ratio suggests he may have some sneaky PG (or point-forward) potential.

 

[weepinwillow]

I like Vassell a lot, great stroke, and can hit it with a guy draped all over him, ideal build for the 2/3 position and his shot is so good it makes him a seem a little quicker. I think he shoots up draft boards by draft night.

I also love the kid from Dayton, Obi Toppin (great feel for the game, nice shooter, knows when to cut/pop, can pass, he will be a solid NBA player for sure) and am intrigued by Deni Avdija.

Jaden McDaniels has super boom/bust potential, so freakin gifted, but his motor seems off, and those kinds of guys end up getting GM's fired left and right.

this draft is clunky, feels very much like the 2013 draft. If that is the case, I look for guys who know how to play who may have higher floors than ceilings. Ideally you get both the high floor high ceiling guy, but for the Cavs I'm choosing the former.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Jaden McDaniels has super boom/bust potential, so freakin gifted, but his motor seems off, and those kinds of guys end up getting GM's fired left and right.

Everyone knows how quick we were on the Cam Reddish stink last year......McDaniels is somehow even worse than Cam in the stuff I look at.

Some GM probably will draft him but his advanced metrics are horrendous. Unless McDaniels moves the needle to end the year, he's on pace to be the lowest rated SF to be drafted, in the possession era calculation I have....just from an analytical perspective.

This draft isn't great, so maybe you bet purely on physical tools later in the 1st.....but he just screams complete bust to me, after half a college season. He just hasn't been able to adjust to the step up in competition.

 

[Nathan S]

Everyone knows how quick we were on the Cam Reddish stink last year......McDaniels is somehow even worse than Cam in the stuff I look at.

Some GM probably will draft him but his advanced metrics are horrendous. Unless McDaniels moves the needle to end the year, he's on pace to be the lowest rated SF to be drafted, in the possession era calculation I have....just from an analytical perspective.

Has a secondary-initiator type with such a high turnover rate ever been drafted?

(and yeah, I know, calling him a secondary initiator may be generous)

 

[I'mWithDan]

Has a secondary-initiator type with such a high turnover rate ever been drafted?

(and yeah, I know, calling him a secondary initiator may be generous)

There are honestly just so few wing players that venture in to the seriously negative category in both TO's per 100 and AST/TO rate.

Here's the list of guys who lagged well below average in both categories. There's so few, I didn't consider who might be secondary initiator types.

Jaylen Brown - 6.6 TO, 0.636 AST / TO
Justin Jackson - 6.0 TO, 0.650 AST / TO
Tyler Honeycutt - 5.2 TO, 0.698 AST / TO
Taurean Prince - 5.2 TO, 0.752 AST / TO
KZ Okpala - 5.0 TO, 0.680 AST / TO
Cam Reddish - 4.9 TO, 0.735 AST / TO
Jabari Parker - 4.6 TO, 0.735 AST / TO
KJ McDaniels - 4.6 TO, 0.735 AST / TO

Out of that list, only Parker and McDaniels graded out as average to good prospect profiles. Parker you kind of throw out with injuries.....he seems like he would have been a competent NBA player had his body held up but it's a guess. McDaniels didn't pan out but was more of a flier given his athleticism and production. Brown was equally terrible and turned in to a good player.....but he was a general disaster at Cal.

Last I had pulled McDaniels stats:

Jaden McDaniels - 5.9 TO, 0.627 AST / TO

So he was tracking to have the worst AST/TO ratio and the 3rd worst TO total among drafted wing players.

That can be fine in some instances but the problem with him is that across all statistical markers, he is no better than average in anything.....and he's below average in 10 of the 21 markers that I track and slightly below average in 10 others. That is just really, really bad for a draft eligible player, let alone someone who is being talked about as a top 10 pick. His only moderately positive statistical marker is his rebound rate. Pretty bleak.

 

[Nathan S]

There are honestly just so few wing players that venture in to the seriously negative category in both TO's per 100 and AST/TO rate.

Here's the list of guys who lagged well below average in both categories. There's so few, I didn't consider who might be secondary initiator types.

Jaylen Brown - 6.6 TO, 0.636 AST / TO
Justin Jackson - 6.0 TO, 0.650 AST / TO
Tyler Honeycutt - 5.2 TO, 0.698 AST / TO
Taurean Prince - 5.2 TO, 0.752 AST / TO
KZ Okpala - 5.0 TO, 0.680 AST / TO
Cam Reddish - 4.9 TO, 0.735 AST / TO
Jabari Parker - 4.6 TO, 0.735 AST / TO
KJ McDaniels - 4.6 TO, 0.735 AST / TO

Out of that list, only Parker and McDaniels graded out as average to good prospect profiles. Parker you kind of throw out with injuries.....he seems like he would have been a competent NBA player had his body held up but it's a guess. McDaniels didn't pan out but was more of a flier given his athleticism and production. Brown was equally terrible and turned in to a good player.....but he was a general disaster at Cal.

Last I had pulled McDaniels stats:

Jaden McDaniels - 5.9 TO, 0.627 AST / TO

So he was tracking to have the worst AST/TO ratio and the 3rd worst TO total among drafted wing players.

That can be fine in some instances but the problem with him is that across all statistical markers, he is no better than average in anything.....and he's below average in 10 of the 21 markers that I track and slightly below average in 10 others. That is just really, really bad for a draft eligible player, let alone someone who is being talked about as a top 10 pick. His only moderately positive statistical marker is his rebound rate. Pretty bleak.

The reason I make the secondary (vs primary) initiator qualification is that it's easier for me to excuse a high turnover rate if we're looking at a freshman who comes in and immediately leads his team in scoring rate (Jaylen Brown, for instance). McDaniels, in contrast, is far from a volume scorer either per-possession or in points per game. The only explanation for his outlier turnover rate is that he's simply not a good player.

 

[catfish]

I think this denji guy is our pick

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I think this denji guy is our pick

At least get his name right lol

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Deni breakdown.

 

[Nathan S]

20/10 for Hayes yesterday. Could very well have 5 international guys in the lottery, or even in the top-10.