2020 NBA Draft

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daddywags

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I've become enamored with Okongwu. He's got an NBA body and seems like a really good athlete. My main concern is/was whether he can shoot a lick because he plays center for USC. Took a quick look at a few high school highlights, though, and saw a number of nice outside shots (probably HS 3s). His form looks pretty good. He's at .728 on free throws as well. If he can be a better shooting TT I think he should be in the conversation in this draft, especially if we land somewhere in 4-8 land.
 

Nathan S

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Hot take: Devon Dotson should be a lottery pick.
 

benchplayer

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here's a question, At 6'8" can Lamelo play some SF? and has anyone seen him do it?
 

ajz20

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for example, Darius Garland.
There situations are completely different so I can’t agree with your premise. Garland was projected top 5, he would have been foolish to return after already getting hurt once.

Lewis right now is between a UDFA and second round pick. Very different financial situations.
 

I'mWithDan

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Hot take: Devon Dotson should be a lottery pick.
He seems to profile as "fine" from what I see. It's tough for a guard to go in the lottery, with no real elite, stand out trait. Dotson is more of a just generally solid guy across the board.

He looks like more of a good backup guard candidate, if I'm guessing. Maybe this draft is so horrendous that a likely NBA rotational player is a lotto pick but he seems like a stretch to me. Statistically, he profiles more like a traditional late 1st. Someone who might contribute on a good team as a top 8-9 rotational player.

He's also weirdly in this zone where he's not a good passing PG but also not an elite scorer either......and I'm trying to think of anyone like that who has succeeded at the NBA level, to a lottery value degree.
 
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I'mWithDan

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Scottie Lewis anyone?
He reminds me of a 2 guard Tre Jones. His profile would be pretty solid, as a two way player, if he didn't have such a horrendously bad scoring rate. It was the same thing that eventually pushed Jones back for one more year.

Lewis' hustle stats and defensive metrics certainly indicate he's a potentially good NBA defender on the wing but it's really tough to guess on what his offensive ceiling is.
 

Nathan S

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He seems to profile as "fine" from what I see. It's tough for a guard to go in the lottery, with no real elite, stand out trait. Dotson is more of a just a generally solid guy across the board.

He looks like more of a good backup guard candidate, if I'm guessing. Maybe this draft is so horrendous that a likely NBA rotational player is a lotto pick but he seems like a stretch to me. Statistically, he profiles more like a traditional late 1st. Someone who might contribute on a good team as a top 8-9 rotational player.

He's also weirdly in this zone where he's not a good passing PG but also not an elite scorer either......and I'm trying to think of anyone like that who has succeeded at the NBA level, to a lottery value degree.
Seems harsh to say he's not a good passing PG and also not an elite scorer...whatever he's doing, he's leading the Big 12 in scoring and is the clear #1 option guy for the clear #1 team in the country. I don't think there are 14 better prospects in a draft like this.
 

Derek

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Dotson and Azubuike have been the best PnR combo in college basketball.

I like both guys a ton.
 

I'mWithDan

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Seems harsh to say he's not a good passing PG and also not an elite scorer...whatever he's doing, he's leading the Big 12 in scoring and is the clear #1 option guy for the clear #1 team in the country. I don't think there are 14 better prospects in a draft like this.
I'm not trying to be harsh.

To put it in to perspective, if we are talking lottery PG's, PP100 / PPFGA splits.....so a measure typically of volume and efficiency:

Curry - 46.9 / 1.42
Jimmer - 46.7 / 1.47
Lillard - 42.2 / 1.59
Young - 40.4 / 1.42
Walker - 38.4 / 1.31
Sexton - 36.5 / 1.44
Irving - 36.1 / 1.84
Fultz - 35.7 / 1.32
Russell - 34.4 / 1.31
Burke - 32.9 / 1.30
Fox - 30.4 / 1.35
Payton - 30.1 / 1.45
Knight - 29.1 / 1.28
Dunn - 28.5 / 1.32
Rose - 28.4 / 1.37
Westbrook - 22.6 / 1.27
Ball - 22.4 / 1.53

So, it should be relatively easy to see why there is more concern with him IMO. If you land in that 34+ zone......just from a scoring volume perspective, the only top 10 PG to flame out was Jimmer. The hit rate is just really high on guys that get in to that ++ scoring category as higher picks. A notch down from that, there are just a lot of mixed results, especially when you get in to the back of the lottery. PG is just such a competitive position at the NBA level. Calling him "fine" isn't meant to be harsh, it just is what he is. He doesn't enter in to the statistical tier of players you would like, to justify taking a PG that high....just given how the position has evolved. Rose and Westbrook had lesser statistical profiles, but were also generational athletes, which obviously helped propel them at the NBA level. If Dotson is that kind of athlete (I don't see evidence he is), I'd have a different opinion on him.

I'm just of the opinion I'd rather take a swing on a more scarce position than draft a PG like Dotson. I don't know that you regret a quality player at the end of the lottery, I just think there's a glut of PG's right now and you are better served investing elsewhere.......even if the success rate is potentially lower. The metrics I look at spit him out in the range of guys like Okoro, Green, Achiuwa, etc.....I'd just much rather gamble on those types. Can you take him in the lottery? Sure.....and I think he makes sense for a team ready to make the playoffs, as a potentially reliable contributor, I just think his ceiling is lower for a lotto pick.....and lower ceiling PG's are a relatively cheap commodity to acquire. I think he's someone that makes more sense in the 20's, when upside outcomes become way less certain.
 
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Nathan S

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I'm not trying to be harsh.

To put it in to perspective, if we are talking lottery PG's, PP100 / PPFGA splits.....so a measure typically of volume and efficiency:

Curry - 46.9 / 1.42
Lillard - 42.2 / 1.59
Young - 40.4 / 1.42
Walker - 38.4 / 1.31
Sexton - 36.5 / 1.44
Irving - 36.1 / 1.84
Fultz - 35.7 / 1.32
Russell - 34.4 / 1.31
Burke - 32.9 / 1.30
Fox - 30.4 / 1.35
Knight - 29.1 / 1.28
Dunn - 28.5 / 1.32
Rose - 28.4 / 1.37
Westbrook - 22.6 / 1.27
Ball - 22.4 / 1.53

So, it should be relatively easy to see why there is more concern with him IMO. If you land in that 34+ zone......just from a scoring volume perspective, the only top 10 PG to flame out was Jimmer. The hit rate is just really high on guys that get in to that ++ scoring category as higher picks. A notch down from that, there are just a lot of mixed results, especially when you get in to the back of the lottery. PG is just such a competitive position at the NBA level. Calling him "fine" isn't meant to be harsh, it just is what he is. He doesn't enter in to the statistical tier of players you would like, to justify taking a PG that high....just given how the position has evolved. Rose and Westbrook had lesser statistical profiles, but were also generational athletes, which obviously helped propel them at the NBA level. If Dotson is that kind of athlete (I don't see evidence he is), I'd have a different opinion on him.

I'm just of the opinion I'd rather take a swing on a more scarce position than draft a PG like Dotson. I don't know that you regret a quality player at the end of the lottery, I just think there's a glut of PG's right now and you are better served investing elsewhere.......even if the success rate is potentially lower. The metrics I look at spit him out in the range of guys like Okoro, Green, Achiuwa, etc.....I'd just much rather gamble on those types. Can you take him in the lottery? Sure.....and I think he makes sense for a team ready to make the playoffs, as a potentially reliable contributor, I just think his ceiling is lower for a lotto pick.....and lower ceiling PG's are a relatively cheap commodity to acquire. I think he's someone that makes more sense in the 20's, when upside outcomes become way less certain.
I'm looking at him in the 10-14 range, not in the mid/high lottery, to be clear. If I was drafting in that range and needed a point guard, I would have to seriously consider Dotson. Of course it's unlikely that he's going to be a star, but it's very tough to pick a star in the late lottery even in a strong draft. Okoro, Green, and Achiuwa are no closer to the "star wing" prototype than Dotson is to the "star PG" prototype.
 

I'mWithDan

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Okoro, Green, and Achiuwa are no closer to the "star wing" prototype than Dotson is to the "star PG" prototype.
Absolutely......but an average wing is significantly more valuable than an average PG. That is the only reason I mentioned them.
 

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