2020 NBA Draft

[benchplayer]

Do you think Toppin can play the five full time? I think he can get spot minutes there, but not vs interior scorers that can take advantage of his high center of gravity.

Nah he's definitely a tweener, but then again the Cavs have been playing tweeners at the center since forever.

 

[cabs]

Wouldn't draft a center over a wing until one proves they can lead a team to a ring in this era. So far Philly, Utah and Denver have failed to make it through to the finals and twolves have struggled to even just make playoffs. Those teams have the best centers in the league.

Also, Wiseman barely played any college. No one knows if he is even that good.

If wings are taken (very unlikely) I would be fine though as small point guards arent needed at all

 

[I'mWithDan]

I’d love to hear people’s rankings of the following three players (this isn’t my order):

1. James Wiseman
2. Obi Toppin
3. Onyeka Okongwu

This trio is the toughest for me this year, as they’re all completely different types of bigs.

Wiseman I’m concerned with what level his awareness is at... I’m not really concerned about all of the offensive questions, because I think you take him with the expectation that he’s never anything more than a diver offensively (that’s still a very valuable skill for a big, especially one with his hands/tools).

Toppin I’m concerned with the age and defensive position. I do think his perimeter defense is a little bit blown out of proportion. He has the athleticism to get back into plays if burned one on one or in P&R. That argument should be more focused on the longevity of that type of style IMO. I’m sold on him offensively.

Okongwu is the toughest one for me personally. This is “get off my lawn” type of material, but I’m already tired of hearing everyone immediately revert to Bam Adebayo with every single breakdown of his game. It’s lazy, and he does not have the passing or shooting Bam does. He’s also a tick smaller, which is huge when you’re talking about a do it all defensive big. I’m concerned with his size/length and think it’s being undervalued in the conversation of Okongwu vs Wiseman. Can he play center full time? I’m also concerned with the shooting... he did not look capable even from mid range last year. I know the FT% is what everyone points to, but to me he looks further away than what he gets credit for.

1. Onyeka Okongwu
2. James Wiseman
3. Obi Toppin

It's just my opinion but I think you are wrong about Okongwu. I think comps cannot be worth discussing at times but Bam doesn't need to be an inch for inch comp.......a guy can profile like Bam and not be his exact size. Anyone who makes a comparison is trying to say the players generally have the same style or skillset. Being a tick smaller doesn't mean anything IMO......some of the best NBA defenders are undersized for their position....it matters more that you play with IQ, anticipation, effort, all things OO does.....but I also don't think Okongwu is small by any means either.

The Bam comparison is mainly driven by how skilled Okongwu is with the basketball. He's an incredibly gifted and smooth guy, relative to his size. He's comfortable facing up....he has great fundamentals as he squares, quick first step, can finish with either hand......at the NBA level, you can watch the face-up highlights below and see his potential as a secondary scorer as well, if he grows in to his jump shot.

The thing that truly just cements Okongwu's value for me personally is watching his pick and roll action on both ends of the floor. I just don't think you can build a team with bigs who cannot, at minimum, tread water in the P&R......both Wiseman and Toppin show signs they are going to really be liabilities there (on defense) at the NBA level. Toppin specifically has the markers of being a possibly bad defensive player at the next level. On the flip side, Okongwu is just really good there......he has great awareness, his lateral movement is excellent, he keeps his arms extended and really does a good job using his body to reroute and cut off smaller players.

As @Cavatt mentioned, it's hard to find guys who have the talent, size and BBIQ to survive at the 4 and 5 in the NBA. Generally speaking, bigs tend to be missing one of those traits. Okongwu has all 3 of them and he readily displays his BBIQ on both ends of the floor. He's an incredibly smart defender but what I love about watching Okongwu play is seeing the awareness with which he plays on offense. Watch all of the little things he does, especially as a screener in the P&R......his read and react is just really good.....he is very good at angling the screen he is setting, relative to the defender.....he is almost always reading the slip correctly......when he rolls to the rim, pay attention to his head.....most bigs cannot take their eyes off of the ball handler because they generally don't have the hands, hand eye coordination or visual redirection skills necessary to do that and then still catch a pass. Okongwu is so skilled with his hands and eyes, that he is able to "cheat", almost like a receiver running a route.....where most bigs just barrel in to guys who flash in to the paint, you'll see Okongwu re-routing his roll based on the movement of secondary defenders, creating better passing and catch lanes. That is an absolutely elite skill for a big IMO.....and when coupled with his hands, makes him a potentially devastating roll man at the NBA level.

Then, once you consider his package of skills and production.......it's just a slam dunk, for me, considering his age. He won't even be 20 until December of this year. Seeing how much his body has grown and matured and how good his coordination and movement is at 19, just imagine him after 2-3 years of NBA conditioning. He has the potential to be a near special modern NBA big.....and in addition to that potential, also has IMO, a pretty high floor. I honestly think there are people who are just overthinking it with him. He plays with effort, production, can stay on the floor in small ball lineups, has discernible NBA skills and is young. Those are exactly the type of players you want to bet on.

As I mentioned re: hands.......he's obviously going to catch all passes, it is a highlight film .....but just pay attention to the variety of passes he is able to catch...high, low, outside of his frame, in traffic......the guy has phenomenal hand eye coordination.....another indication his defense is going to transfer IMO.

 

[Derek]

Wouldn't draft a center over a wing until one proves they can lead a team to a ring in this era. So far Philly, Utah and Denver have failed to make it through to the finals and twolves have struggled to even just make playoffs. Those teams have the best centers in the league.

Also, Wiseman barely played any college. No one knows if he is even that good.

If wings are taken (very unlikely) I would be fine though as small point guards arent needed at all

I'd be ecstatic if the Cavs could ever be as good as Utah, Philly, or Denver. 50+ wins and a puncher's chance in the playoffs on a consistent basis is the best hope we'll ever have.

 

[cabs]

I'd be ecstatic if the Cavs could ever be as good as Utah, Philly, or Denver. 50+ wins and a puncher's chance in the playoffs on a consistent basis is the best hope we'll ever have.

why? all you need in the NBA is to nail a star player in the draft, look at the bucks they were probably saying the same thing 5 years ago

 

[cabs]

I made nailing a star player sound a lot easier than it is but i mean the cavs have just as much chance as other teams in the draft

 

[Derek]

why? all you need in the NBA is to nail a star player in the draft, look at the bucks they were probably saying the same thing 5 years ago

I just don’t believe that landing the next Giannis or LBJ is realistic.

While Gobert, Jokic, Embiid and Simmons are extraordinary players, it seems more likely that we’re able to acquire players of their caliber and build a really good team.

Hell, the Pacers haven’t been bad in 30 years. Sign me up for that right now. Who knows? Maybe you luck into a title with a really good team.

 

[LackOfSkill]

1. Onyeka Okongwu
2. James Wiseman
3. Obi Toppin

It's just my opinion but I think you are wrong about Okongwu. I think comps cannot be worth discussing at times but Bam doesn't need to be an inch for inch comp.......a guy can profile like Bam and not be his exact size. Anyone who makes a comparison is trying to say the players generally have the same style or skillset. Being a tick smaller doesn't mean anything IMO......some of the best NBA defenders are undersized for their position....it matters more that you play with IQ, anticipation, effort, all things OO does.....but I also don't think Okongwu is small by any means either.

The Bam comparison is mainly driven by how skilled Okongwu is with the basketball. He's an incredibly gifted and smooth guy, relative to his size. He's comfortable facing up....he has great fundamentals as he squares, quick first step, can finish with either hand......at the NBA level, you can watch the face-up highlights below and see his potential as a secondary scorer as well, if he grows in to his jump shot.

The thing that truly just cements Okongwu's value for me personally is watching his pick and roll action on both ends of the floor. I just don't think you can build a team with bigs who cannot, at minimum, tread water in the P&R......both Wiseman and Toppin show signs they are going to really be liabilities there (on defense) at the NBA level. Toppin specifically has the markers of being a possibly bad defensive player at the next level. On the flip side, Okongwu is just really good there......he has great awareness, his lateral movement is excellent, he keeps his arms extended and really does a good job using his body to reroute and cut off smaller players.

As @Cavatt mentioned, it's hard to find guys who have the talent, size and BBIQ to survive at the 4 and 5 in the NBA. Generally speaking, bigs tend to be missing one of those traits. Okongwu has all 3 of them and he readily displays his BBIQ on both ends of the floor. He's an incredibly smart defender but what I love about watching Okongwu play is seeing the awareness with which he plays on offense. Watch all of the little things he does, especially as a screener in the P&R......his read and react is just really good.....he is very good at angling the screen he is setting, relative to the defender.....he is almost always reading the slip correctly......when he rolls to the rim, pay attention to his head.....most bigs cannot take their eyes off of the ball handler because they generally don't have the hands, hand eye coordination or visual redirection skills necessary to do that and then still catch a pass. Okongwu is so skilled with his hands and eyes, that he is able to "cheat", almost like a receiver running a route.....where most bigs just barrel in to guys who flash in to the paint, you'll see Okongwu re-routing his roll based on the movement of secondary defenders, creating better passing and catch lanes. That is an absolutely elite skill for a big IMO.....and when coupled with his hands, makes him a potentially devastating roll man at the NBA level.

Then, once you consider his package of skills and production.......it's just a slam dunk, for me, considering his age. He won't even be 20 until December of this year. Seeing how much his body has grown and matured and how good his coordination and movement is at 19, just imagine him after 2-3 years of NBA conditioning. He has the potential to be a near special modern NBA big.....and in addition to that potential, also has IMO, a pretty high floor. I honestly think there are people who are just overthinking it with him. He plays with effort, production, can stay on the floor in small ball lineups, has discernible NBA skills and is young. Those are exactly the type of players you want to bet on.

As I mentioned re: hands.......he's obviously going to catch all passes, it is a highlight film .....but just pay attention to the variety of passes he is able to catch...high, low, outside of his frame, in traffic......the guy has phenomenal hand eye coordination.....another indication his defense is going to transfer IMO.

To clarify what I was saying Re: Bam. I agree that there are similarities to their games, I just hear people's first and only thought on Okongwu is that he's similar to Adebayo. It's to a point where if you are listening to draft analysis on Okongwu, you can just go ahead and start a timer for when Bam's name gets brought up. Comparisons can be useful until they're just regurgitated over and over again by those who don't actually watch film and are used as a safety blanket for not really knowing the details of what they're good/not good at.

I'm about to go off on a tangent here, but year in and year out I've noticed this happens with a player in each draft. You look at the prior NBA season's breakout players, and you will undoubtedly get a player compared to them in the upcoming draft. After Draymond's breakout, every undersized big with a pulse was getting compared to him. Another one was Kristaps Porzingis after his rookie season --> Anzejs Pasecniks, for example. A big Latvian who could shoot who nobody was actually watching film on... because if they did they'd realize he was awful. Giannis begins to break out after having almost zero film vs low level of competition... here comes the Bruno Caboclo hype.

I do have Onyeka as the top big right now btw, I just am not as high on him as some. I agree with most of what you said... I just am concerned with the level of impact a big can make with a 9 foot even standing reach. His athleticism & timing will help, but if you run through the top interior defenders in the league, they almost all have outlier tools. It's just a high bar to reach for me... If I'm taking a big in the top 5 I want to be sure he can defend the rim.

 

[Nathan S]

Let's get a Wiseman-Ayton comparison going. I was much lower than most on Ayton, having him in the 6-10 range for his draft, but I'd easily have him top-5 in this much-weaker draft. Is Wiseman a substantially worse prospect? If so, in what way?

 

[Smooth]

Perhaps some draft fodder from Fedor:

How will Cleveland Cavaliers replace Brock Aller in the front office? Hey, Chris!

The Cavs have done a good job building a high-level front office with smart people. Some have stayed and worked their way up. Others have left for bigger jobs elsewhere.

www.cleveland.com

Hey, Chris: Should the Cavs consider trading down in the draft? How would Devin Vassell fit?

I think it makes sense to explore a trade-down possibility. The top of the draft is loaded with guards and bigs and the Cavs need help on the wing. Aside from mystery man Deni Avdija, it’s tough to make an argument for any other wing in the top 6, which is the lowest the Cavs could fall based on the current lottery setup and standings.

But moving back is easier said than done. If the Cavs view a three-player tier at the top, which is the current sense I get, would they be willing to move back, away from a chance to grab either LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards or James Wiseman? Based on talent and upside, those would likely be three targets for an opposing team in a move-up scenario as well. The Washington Wizards, with uncertainty surrounding John Wall, would be an ideal fit for Ball. Perhaps the Knicks as well, given their shaky lead guard situation. Would the return package be worth the Cavs willingly missing out on one of those targets? If the Cavs aren’t in the top 3, then which team would come to their spot in what’s considered a bad draft? Who would be worth trading up to get? And how far back would the Cavs drop?

The range for wings is around 10. Of course, Auburn’s Issac Okoro could go a bit earlier. Avdija will also. In terms of Vassell, he has the tools to be the ideal 3-and-D player. At 6-foot-7, Vassell shot at least 41% from 3-point range in each of his two seasons at Florida State. Trading down and taking him would allow the Cavs to fill their most gaping hole while also adding additional draft capital. It’s something to consider.


Hey, Chris: How do you think Anthony Edwards could fit with Darius Garland and Collin Sexton?


It’s not ideal. Edwards has a score-first mentality similar to Sexton. He’s at his best with the ball in his hands. Same with Garland and Sexton. And there’s only one ball. So, getting the most out of three players individually while trying to align that with what’s best for the franchise is a difficult balance.

Because of Edwards’ talent and an argument that he may be better than both Sexton and Garland in the future, it’s at least worth exploring how it could work.

There are lots of guard minutes available throughout the course of a game. The Cavs could move one to the bench in a sixth man role. Staggering minutes, splitting up the trio, is another possibility. It also helps that Edwards is bigger than Cleveland’s current duo. The SEC Freshman of the Year is a burly, well-built 6-foot-5 guard with a long wingspan (around 7-0) that could allow him to play up a position in certain lineups.

The Cavs are in a place where they have to take players with the most upside -- even if it’s at a position where they are congested. This early into the rebuild, it’s about acquiring as much talent as possible. Maximizing the value of one of the guards in this scenario could mean a future trade.

 

[daddywags]

I must be missing something with Edwards. My quick take is he's a volume scorer who can't shoot. That's a pretty bad combination IMO.

I really like Okongwu, don't like Toppin, and have no idea about Wiseman because nobody's ever really seen him play.

I'm at the point where I would consider trading out of this draft if we could get a good, young, player who fits our roster. I have no idea who, why, or how that would happen so it won't. So take one of Ball, Hayes or Halliburton and make it work. All three should be decent players in the NBA and are tall guards who move the ball well. Kinda sucks, but I think our mistake happened in last year's draft.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Let's get a Wiseman-Ayton comparison going. I was much lower than most on Ayton, having him in the 6-10 range for his draft, but I'd easily have him top-5 in this much-weaker draft. Is Wiseman a substantially worse prospect? If so, in what way?

It's a guess but analytically, I doubt wiseman would have been as good as Ayton. Again, just a guess.

Ayton had one of the best analytical profiles of any player in the last 10+ years, not even considering just centers.

In all the stuff my data spits out, Ayton ranked (out of nearly 400 drafted prospects):

#3 in net impact (behind Steph and AD)
#4 in impact relative to position (behind AD, Steph, KD)
#13 in raw impact (not considering age, frame, athleticism, etc).

His analytical profile was elite. I don't think he's in the class of those other guys but he was insanely productive on a per possession basis in college. And his first two NBA years he was 16/10 and 19/12.......so he has really produced relative to his age. Expecting Wiseman to do that, seems unlikely to me......but we really don't have a whole lot to go on with him. If Ayton were in this draft, I'd bet my life he'd go #1.

 

[DeeThree]

There's a lot of talent in the 6-15 range. Which teams could we trade back with?

 

[Nathan S]

It's a guess but analytically, I doubt wiseman would have been as good as Ayton. Again, just a guess.

Ayton had one of the best analytical profiles of any player in the last 10+ years, not even considering just centers.

In all the stuff my data spits out, Ayton ranked (out of nearly 400 drafted prospects):

#3 in net impact (behind Steph and AD)
#4 in impact relative to position (behind AD, Steph, KD)
#13 in raw impact (not considering age, frame, athleticism, etc).

His analytical profile was elite. I don't think he's in the class of those other guys but he was insanely productive on a per possession basis in college. And his first two NBA years he was 16/10 and 19/12.......so he has really produced relative to his age. Expecting Wiseman to do that, seems unlikely to me......but we really don't have a whole lot to go on with him. If Ayton were in this draft, I'd bet my life he'd go #1.

Eh, that's just your system though. I found Ayton to be fairly pedestrian analytically, and Wiseman much better, albeit in very limited minutes. In particular, Wiseman's free throw and block rates were over twice Ayton's, so I'd make the case that he would have outperformed Ayton in those key areas over the course of a full season (though of course by a more modest margin).

Of course, I'm a little cool on Wiseman for some of the same reasons I was cool on Ayton, namely his poor assist rate, poor steal rate, and virtually nonexistent 3-point shot. But still, in a draft with fairly little in the way out outlier talents, I feel like he has to be in play in the top-5.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Eh, that's just your system though. I found Ayton to be fairly pedestrian analytically, and Wiseman much better, albeit in very limited minutes. In particular, Wiseman's free throw and block rates were over twice Ayton's, so I'd make the case that he would have outperformed Ayton in those key areas over the course of a full season (though of course by a more modest margin).

Of course, I'm a little cool on Wiseman for some of the same reasons I was cool on Ayton, namely his poor assist rate, poor steal rate, and virtually nonexistent 3-point shot. But still, in a draft with fairly little in the way out outlier talents, I feel like he has to be in play in the top-5.

Wiseman's data means nothing though. It was 3 total games.....2 of those were against South Carolina State and UIC. The biggest starter SCS had was 6'8". UIC's match for Wiseman was a 2-star true freshman. I like Wiseman, but his entire evaluation will be based on his HS pedigree and his workouts. Trying to use any of his numbers to draw a conclusion on where he falls in any model based on statistical data is moot to me.

I think you are unusually low on Ayton as a prospect. I also don't understand the 3 point shot comment.....Ayton took 30+ 3's as a 7 foot center in his one college season...and he shot 34%. He was one of the very few modern 7 foot prospects who even had game tape of him taking shots from extended range and he also had quality tape there during AAU ball as well. If teams' think Wiseman is as good as Ayton, he should be the #1 pick in this draft......if they think he is better, they should have all have a Wiseman jersey printed out prior to the lottery.

I do think Wiseman should go in the top 5 of a draft like this......I was more so responding to Ayton, as a comparison. I think it would be really unlikely Wiseman would have put up better numbers than Ayton did, had he played 35+ games. Better than Ayton would have been Zion range and I just do not think that is reflective of the type of player Wiseman likely is.