2020 NBA Draft

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Cavatt

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I've been listening to the Chad Ford Podcast. In this one with Bill Simmons, they keep talking about the makeup of the prospects and whether they will get to their ceiling or turn out better than you thought. Ford says he really liked Kawhi because he saw that when he showed up for a workout really early, Leonard was already there and people told him that he didn't care about anything but basketball. They said this has been pretty consistent over and over that that is a good sign. Cautioned against Wiseman and Edwards because they don't seem to have that kind of motor.


Couldn't help but think about both Sexton and Porter. Sexton is Monomaniacal about Basketball, and the report on Porter was he really tried to get better and understand the game more even while he was hurt and sitting out. He came back looking really good and seemed than he did before injury. Windler is known to have a good work ethic. We will see.

My point here is that I think with the uncertainty of tiers in this draft, that background work on guys is going to be important in this draft. So far I like the way Koby has paid attention to mentality and makeup in the past couple of drafts. Darius is the only one I am slightly concerned with there, and I still think he made good improvements this year.

They said that Ball is dedicated to being great and is a hard worker, but he hasn't played much. They also emphasized that he is maybe the only one in the draft that may have an elite skill with his ball-handling/passing/feel for the game. Okongwu and Killian Hayes also seemed to fit this as tireless workers.

I listened to several in a row I think I am confusing a little bit of what was said with this one too.


I think my board is

Ball
Okongwu
Hayes
 

I'mWithDan

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I am not a huge LaMelo fan but I do think one positive shooting marker is that his mechanics from his high school years to now are demonstrably better. It would seem as he continues to get stronger, that they should continue to tighten up.

His small sample size of shooting wouldn't keep me from drafting him, that seems like something he can continue to learn to do.....I would also imagine shot selection improvement would immediately bump his percentages as well, assuming he is coachable.

The things that are pretty unique, relative to his size are his handle, vision and body control. I think his handle, similar to his shooting mechanics, is noticeably better than it was in high school as well.....if you just eyeball test his game tape.

I struggle with where to slot him in the draft. He's one of those guys I'd really like to see work out and participate at the combine but it is probably both unlikely there will even be one and if there is, probably even less likely he'll workout (outside of private ones).
 

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What you'll notice is that not a single one managed to combine a high FTr with a high percentage. The guys which have elite percentages like Hayes, Haliiburton, and Maxey only manage relatively mundane (or in Haliburton's case, dreadful) FTr numbers. The guys who really rack up the FT attempts, like Tyler Bey and Onyeka Okongwu are only mediocre FT shooters. There's nobody who is constantly getting to the line and also making them at a high rate.
I'd argue that a true big like Okongwu, shooting 72% from the FT, is certainly not a mediocre FT shooter relative to the position.

72% would comfortably slot him in the top 15 among qualifying NBA centers.

If you want to call him a Forward, 72% is still top 25 among qualifying NBA forwards.

It is not lights out but as a starting point for a young big man, it is certainly good IMO.

I think he has solid mechanics as well, so I would imagine he has the capacity to improve as a FT shooter too.

He shot 10 or more FT's 3 times this past season and shot:

17-21
9-10
9-10

It is tough for me to say any big man capable of doing that, even in a 3 game sample, is a mediocre FT shooter.
 

Cavatt

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I am not a huge LaMelo fan but I do think one positive shooting marker is that his mechanics from his high school years to now are demonstrably better. It would seem as he continues to get stronger, that they should continue to tighten up.

His small sample size of shooting wouldn't keep me from drafting him, that seems like something he can continue to learn to do.....I would also imagine shot selection improvement would immediately bump his percentages as well, assuming he is coachable.

The things that are pretty unique, relative to his size are his handle, vision and body control. I think his handle, similar to his shooting mechanics, is noticeably better than it was in high school as well.....if you just eyeball test his game tape.

I struggle with where to slot him in the draft. He's one of those guys I'd really like to see work out and participate at the combine but it is probably both unlikely there will even be one and if there is, probably even less likely he'll workout (outside of private ones).
Lamelo to me doesn't actually have much of a bust potential because his playmaking and vision are so good. The problem is with his defense. He could easily be so bad thereto negate his impact. I just keep coming back to the fact he is the only one with Elite NBA skills in the top 5.
 

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Lamelo to me doesn't actually have much of a bust potential because his playmaking and vision are so good. The problem is with his defense. He could easily be so bad thereto negate his impact. I just keep coming back to the fact he is the only one with Elite NBA skills in the top 5.
How do you think drafting Ball would affect Sexton and Garland? Because garland didn't get to play a full season, and there's no way in hell I'd trade sexton because it looks like he gonna be an all-star.
 

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How do you think drafting Ball would affect Sexton and Garland? Because garland didn't get to play a full season, and there's no way in hell I'd trade sexton because it looks like he gonna be an all-star.
I think a Sexton-Ball backcourt has potential to be phenomenal- offensively.
 

Cavatt

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How do you think drafting Ball would affect Sexton and Garland? Because garland didn't get to play a full season, and there's no way in hell I'd trade sexton because it looks like he gonna be an all-star.
Yeah I totally agree with @daddywags. Lamelo is probably the best type of pg to pair with Sexton. The defense would not be great, but the offense would. Their skillsets totally mesh as opposed to Garland. You would have to send Garland to the bench or trade him. Lamelo is the better passer and might be a top 10 or at worst 15 passer in the league from day 1. Lamelo is more comfy off the ball, but can also be a primary initiator and his vision is on Trae Youngs level. He would find Sexton all the time, great at the outlet. All the vets woudl be really happy with ball IMO and they could probably live with his shoooting because of the other shooters in the starting lineup at least for the time being.

I like Garland a lot. He looks like he could have high upside to me, but he doesn't make sense with Sexton. The people that said "Why take Garland, there will be better backcourt pairings next year" were few and far between,but they were 100% right.

Ball
Hayes
and Haliburton

Are all great pairings with Sexton, with better size, better off the ball games, and except for Ball all are for sure better defenders than Garland. Garland may have more shooting upside, but he still has to prove that. Haliburton is a really good 3 pt shooter and likely shoots better than Garland. Hayes is not the shooter Garland is yet, but appears to have that upside.

It's really a shame. I still don't know who the right pick was at 5. I guess I would have to say Cam Reddish of all people. I was very scared of him because of his motor. He has shown effort and potential on D though and we could use that, and he has started benefitiing from spacing that seems to have helped his shot. As a 3 and D with great size, he would have been underwhelming with the 5th pick and KPJ would have outplayed him, but he would have fit and then we could have taken Ball, Haliburton, or Hayes. All of whom I think will be pretty good, but Ball and Hayes have some star potential.

Also, Sexton really messed up the teams plans by playing well with others and passing the ball at the end of the year. Now, moving him to the bench as 6th man is almost impossible. I think that Garland's role instead now. It's a bummer for a guy with his talent, but he just isn't an alpha like Collin, and Collin is a year ahead of being a year ahead of Garland. I'd say just as a ready now product, Garland is somewhere between the beginning and end Collin's rookie year level. I'd be very surprised if he starts next year.
 

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Yeah I totally agree with @daddywags. Lamelo is probably the best type of pg to pair with Sexton. The defense would not be great, but the offense would. Their skillsets totally mesh as opposed to Garland. You would have to send Garland to the bench or trade him. Lamelo is the better passer and might be a top 10 or at worst 15 passer in the league from day 1. Lamelo is more comfy off the ball, but can also be a primary initiator and his vision is on Trae Youngs level. He would find Sexton all the time, great at the outlet. All the vets woudl be really happy with ball IMO and they could probably live with his shoooting because of the other shooters in the starting lineup at least for the time being.

I like Garland a lot. He looks like he could have high upside to me, but he doesn't make sense with Sexton. The people that said "Why take Garland, there will be better backcourt pairings next year" were few and far between,but they were 100% right.

Ball
Hayes
and Haliburton

Are all great pairings with Sexton, with better size, better off the ball games, and except for Ball all are for sure better defenders than Garland. Garland may have more shooting upside, but he still has to prove that. Haliburton is a really good 3 pt shooter and likely shoots better than Garland. Hayes is not the shooter Garland is yet, but appears to have that upside.

It's really a shame. I still don't know who the right pick was at 5. I guess I would have to say Cam Reddish of all people. I was very scared of him because of his motor. He has shown effort and potential on D though and we could use that, and he has started benefitiing from spacing that seems to have helped his shot. As a 3 and D with great size, he would have been underwhelming with the 5th pick and KPJ would have outplayed him, but he would have fit and then we could have taken Ball, Haliburton, or Hayes. All of whom I think will be pretty good, but Ball and Hayes have some star potential.

Also, Sexton really messed up the teams plans by playing well with others and passing the ball at the end of the year. Now, moving him to the bench as 6th man is almost impossible. I think that Garland's role instead now. It's a bummer for a guy with his talent, but he just isn't an alpha like Collin, and Collin is a year ahead of being a year ahead of Garland. I'd say just as a ready now product, Garland is somewhere between the beginning and end Collin's rookie year level. I'd be very surprised if he starts next year.
Yeah, I hate to admit it but drafting a point guard at 5 last year may put us in an awkward position. Because IF we draft ball and he's looking like a star then that means we basically drafted a backup with that 5th pick. As for fit, I think Love, Nance, KPJ, and Drummond (if he's here) would thrive with Ball's court vision. The thing that kind of worries me about Lamelo though is his low 3pt percentage. This is the age of the 3 pt shot and he's has got to knock those down at a respectable clip. The defense is another issue but I think with his height and a good defensive coach he can be taught.

As for that 5th pick, hindsight is always 20/20, but I think we should have traded down for either Jaxson hayes or Hachimura.
 

Cavatt

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Yeah, I hate to admit it but drafting a point guard at 5 last year may put us in an awkward position. Because IF we draft ball and he's looking like a star then that means we basically drafted a backup with that 5th pick. As for fit, I think Love, Nance, KPJ, and Drummond (if he's here) would thrive with Ball's court vision. The thing that kind of worries me about Lamelo though is his low 3pt percentage. This is the age of the 3 pt shot and he's has got to knock those down at a respectable clip. The defense is another issue but I think with his height and a good defensive coach he can be taught.

As for that 5th pick, hindsight is always 20/20, but I think we should have traded down for either Jaxson hayes or Hachimura.
I read that Lamelo uses that horrible push shot because he was taking NBA 3's at age 8 and wasn't strong enough for your standard shot.

He does have touch and his ft% is 72% which is on the low end of "good".

One thing I have faith in our coaches is shooting. All of Cedi, Nance, and Collin have gotten significantly better, and there were big question marks on all 3 if they would ever be able to shoot the 3. Now they are 3 of our best shooters.

I think it is really hard to say if Lamelo is as bad a shooter as his stats suggest. He takes Curry type 3's really fast, and off the dribble with >15 sec on the clock. What I am trying to say is that his shot selection/shooting on the move may be worse than his shooting overall, but it is hard to say. Definitely a work in progress.

Totally agree that if he can't raise some of those horrible percentages, he is in trouble. I think he can shoot mid 30's on 3's. very tough call.

It's tough. I believe he has the highest ceiling in the draft and is the only guy who has any business going #1.
 

I'mWithDan

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It's really a shame. I still don't know who the right pick was at 5. I guess I would have to say Cam Reddish of all people.
I personally thought it was Jaxson Hayes and had mentioned he was the guy in the middle of the lottery that had by far the best profile analytically. Pre-injury, I would have said Okeke......really interested to see how he does after healing up.

I liked Clarke as well but a trade back was in order if that was your guy......Hayes had the mix of athleticism, skill, potential and production you look for in the 5-8 area. I think he will end up being the big miss based on early returns. He was a +VORP player at a position that is tough to find, positive BPM, 2nd in win shares among rookies, in his age 19 year. He looked good in summer league, pre-season and was producing for a team competing for the playoffs. If his body fills out and his shooting range develops, ugh. That will be a tough one.

Garland flashed a bit more than I thought he would have, so it is possible he has value around the league. A good organization would course correct on that fit, seeing Sexton's growth IMO, so I'm curious to see what the Cavs do. I don't know if Garland could net a lottery pick in this draft but if he could, I would be tempted to move him and try to build a more complimentary piece around Sexton and our #1 pick.

Here is the lottery spread. Again, all the numbers I have are just one way to look at prospects.......it has been generally good but not the end all be all.....but you do see that Hayes really stood out of that middle group. The one thing that did manifest was foul concerns, which the per foul stats indicated might be a problem but the touch points across the board just indicated there was so much positive value in his profile.

 
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Derek

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I read that Lamelo uses that horrible push shot because he was taking NBA 3's at age 8 and wasn't strong enough for your standard shot.

He does have touch and his ft% is 72% which is on the low end of "good".

One thing I have faith in our coaches is shooting. All of Cedi, Nance, and Collin have gotten significantly better, and there were big question marks on all 3 if they would ever be able to shoot the 3. Now they are 3 of our best shooters.

I think it is really hard to say if Lamelo is as bad a shooter as his stats suggest. He takes Curry type 3's really fast, and off the dribble with >15 sec on the clock. What I am trying to say is that his shot selection/shooting on the move may be worse than his shooting overall, but it is hard to say. Definitely a work in progress.

Totally agree that if he can't raise some of those horrible percentages, he is in trouble. I think he can shoot mid 30's on 3's. very tough call.

It's tough. I believe he has the highest ceiling in the draft and is the only guy who has any business going #1.
I actually see the opposite of a high upside player.

I think LaMelo is a safe pick. He'll probably be a low-efficiency scorer so hopefully, he limits his volume, but his passing will play at a high level immediately.

I think the question you need to answer before taking him highly is what will he be on the defensive end?

Also, not that it really matters, but I would not consider 72% on the low end of good. That's just plain bad for a guard.
 

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I personally thought it was Jaxson Hayes and had mentioned he was the guy in the middle of the lottery that had by far the best profile analytically. Pre-injury, I would have said Okeke......really interested to see how he does after healing up.

I liked Clarke as well but a trade back was in order if that was your guy......Hayes had the mix of athleticism, skill, potential and production you look for in the 5-8 area. I think he will end up being the big miss based on early returns. He was a +VORP player at a position that is tough to find, positive BPM, 2nd in win shares among rookies, in his age 19 year. He looked good in summer league, pre-season and was producing for a team competing for the playoffs. If his body fills out and his shooting range develops, ugh. That will be a tough one.

Garland flashed a bit more than I thought he would have, so it is possible he has value around the league. A good organization would course correct on that fit, seeing Sexton's growth IMO, so I'm curious to see what the Cavs do. I don't know if Garland could net a lottery pick in this draft but if he could, I would be tempted to move him and try to build a more complimentary piece around Sexton and our #1 pick.

Here is the lottery spread. Again, all the numbers I have are just one way to look at prospects.......it has been generally good but not the end all be all.....but you do see that Hayes really stood out of that middle group. The one thing that did manifest was foul concerns, which the per foul stats indicated might be a problem but the touch points across the board just indicated there was so much positive value in his profile.

Yeah, I would be fine with Hayes now, and I knew you suggested him, I just thought no way they take him at 5, and that was born out. I didn't see anyone say take him that high. Seems like the difference between 8 and 5 isn't that big, but it is right?

I am pretty confused about this draft because on one hand, I am fine reaching because it isn't a good draft and on the other hand, Anthony Bennett.
 

Cavatt

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I actually see the opposite of a high upside player.

I think LaMelo is a safe pick. He'll probably be a low-efficiency scorer so hopefully, he limits his volume, but his passing will play at a high level immediately.

I think the question you need to answer before taking him highly is what will he be on the defensive end?

Also, not that it really matters, but I would not consider 72% on the low end of good. That's just plain bad for a guard.
72% is bad, you are right. I wouldn't say hopeless. For such a bad 3pt shooter it is in fact a little hopeful?

If he can shoot 33% from 3, and defend adequately though he will be an allstar I think. Those are big ifs for sure, but there is a pretty easy to envision path for him to be a star.

Which player has a more easily achieved upside in your opinion? I do think Edwards has that potential since he started basketball later and already came so far.
 

Derek

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72% is bad, you are right. I wouldn't say hopeless. For such a bad 3pt shooter it is in fact a little hopeful?

If he can shoot 33% from 3, and defend adequately though he will be an allstar I think. Those are big ifs for sure, but there is a pretty easy to envision path for him to be a star.

Which player has a more easily achieved upside in your opinion? I do think Edwards has that potential since he started basketball later and already came so far.
I don't think 72% gives any hope, but there are other reasons that you already mentioned to be more optimistic about his shot moving forward.

As far as the bolded, I'm not sure what makes you think that.

His brother shot a high volume of 3's at 38% this year while defending adequately, and I think LaMelo projects as a much worse defender, who also won't do much scoring inside the arc.

I guess I like Hayes upside, but I haven't really seen enough of him. I think that's a theme with this draft, the less we've seen of somebody, the more we like them.
 

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