yeah no problem I just fail to see the corelation between him working on his game and in game transferable skill.
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2020 NBA Draft
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Cavatt
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I think I've seen him listed at all 5 positions lol. Who knows. If you look at his per-40 stats and ignore defensive rebounds and blocks, you could easily think he was a point guard.
I know he is light, but maybe he is just a guard that is 7 feet tall. I would be fine with taking him outside of the lottery. Don't steals and blocks correlate better to NBA success than BMI?
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Defensive feel & jumper are the question marks. Fit questions arise with that combo. Some would argue he benefitted from athletic advantages he won't have in the NBA.
Unsure how much measurements come into play on your projections, but I'd expect him to be closer to 6'8" than his 6'10" listing.
Height factors in as a positive on D, but 2" wouldn't change the picture too much. A lot depends on whether you project him as a 4 or a 5 I guess. As a 5 he's pretty meh, but I think the jumpshot and overall perimeter feel is there for him to be a 4. 77% from the line on nearly 200 attempts bodes well.
I'mWithDan
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I like Perry. PF is a really competitive position from an analytic standpoint. Guys who are plus prospects tend to succeed a lot at that position. The band (and up) Perry lands in in my calculation has a 50% hit rate for a top 5 VORP player in a given draft. PF's below the band (average or worse) are only VORP players a little less than 10% of the time. So certainly Perry is someone who has a lot of sleeper potential, based on past draft profiles at his position.
The other guys my possession database flags are sleeper candidates, that don't get a lot of love:
Daniel Oturu, Ty-Shon Alexander, Jalen Smith, Paul Reed, Aaron Nesmith, Tyler Bey, Joel Ayayi
Joel Ayayi is a really interesting player. He just turned 20. He made pretty remarkable improvements from his freshman to sophomore year. Saw a huge volume / minute increase and still had a big leap from an offensive efficiency standpoint. Solid defensive metrics, lots of length, nice shooting improvement trajectory (with + FT%), elite PG rebounder.....he's a project but he has tools. He has such a smooth, tight, 1 motion shot too.
I'mWithDan
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That is a MASSIVE change to his mechanics. He was loading his shot from below his waste before, with a very pronounced swing up and a two motion shot. The workout video is a significantly higher entry point in to his motion, it is more compact, it is quicker and looks a lot more repeatable.
He just needs to make one last small tweak.....he needs to roll his off hand forward instead of being so rigid but he's done the hard part. If he's comfortable with that motion, I have no doubt he's going to shoot better and more consistently.
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Out of those players, my draft rater is cool on Oturu, Nesmith, Alexander and Bey. Specifically, poor assist numbers hurt Oturu, Nesmith, and Bey, while Alexander projects as a big negative on defense.
It's lukewarm on Smith and Reed. For some reason, Reed is typically mocked lower than Smith, even in the second round where he'd be a real steal.
It really likes Ayayi, which is a surprise to me -- I hadn't entered his stats and he wasn't really on the radar for me until you mentioned him here. It doesn't see him as a super high-upside guy on account of his low scoring volume, but sees him as a near lock (~80% chance) to be a positive-impact player. If I made a big board I'd probably have him in the 12-20 range somewhere.
I'mWithDan
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Yeah, it certainly is a bit of a crap shoot the lower you get but roughly, out of 100 or so prospects who are deemed in consideration to be drafted, I typically see around 14-18 that are deemed as higher than average success candidates. 18 would be a draft more like last year, 13-14 more like one this. I don't love guys like Oturu, Alexander and Smith for example......but they tend to do things, respective to their positions, that tend to lead to an increased chance of sticking. So when I say sleeper, I don't necessarily mean high upside because I think that tends to be more of a fruitless exercise but rather guys who when you look back and say "what 10 guys stuck from this draft?" that guys like Oturo, Alexander, Smith, etc. are going to be most likely to land in that group relative to the other players.
Ayayi is honestly the most intriguing guy to me outside the lottery. He's young, he has size, when you watch his film, he has NBA skills......he's smooth in the P&R, he's smart, he has really nice jumper mechanics, fast in the open floor......there's just a lot to like, especially as a reserve guard candidate who can further develop. He has also shown flashes of being a tough shot maker off the dribble, which would obviously raise his floor as a scorer if that can translate in a larger role. He still managed to emerge on a really good Gonzaga team but his FIBA highlights intimate there is some real sleeper potential, seeing how good he can be with the ball in his hands in ISO situations.
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I like Smith, just don't see him as a sleeper. He's often mocked in the teens or early 20's, on average maybe 5-ish picks lower than I'd have him. For Alexander and Oturu, my draft rater sees red flags that may cause them to flunk out. For Alexander, it's his low offensive rebound rate, block rate, and foul rate, which taken together suggest that he doesn't have a great motor and functional athleticism defensively. For Oturu, it's a poor assist:TO ratio and steal rate, which taken together suggest below-average versatility and IQ.
Ayayi though...no red flags, and lots of reasons for optimism. I don't think he can beat out Pokusevski in the "intriguing" category, but otherwise agree
there is a MASSIVE inconsistency that exists that is far more concerning than what you are suggesting is promising. The fact alone that he would be ONLY NOW after NBA scouting feedback I guess motivated to change anything is pathetic.
Personal opinion is he has been working on his shooting for a long time and inconsistency in games is the problem.
Ty-Shon is one of the best on ball defenders in the draft and is significantly underrated as a shooter/scorer smhI like Smith, just don't see him as a sleeper. He's often mocked in the teens or early 20's, on average maybe 5-ish picks lower than I'd have him. For Alexander and Oturu, my draft rater sees red flags that may cause them to flunk out. For Alexander, it's his low offensive rebound rate, block rate, and foul rate, which taken together suggest that he doesn't have a great motor and functional athleticism defensively. For Oturu, it's a poor assist:TO ratio and steal rate, which taken together suggest below-average versatility and IQ.
Ayayi though...no red flags, and lots of reasons for optimism. I don't think he can beat out Pokusevski in the "intriguing" category, but otherwise agree
Maybe if you have a team situation where he only has to defend PGs. Doesn't have the physical tools to defend NBA wings though. Small wings like him are a tough sell unless they're outlier athletes or have some other super-elite skill. He doesn't check either of those boxes. Why not draft Jared Butler, who's a year younger and arguably a better player?
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The only problem that exists is that rather than you adjusting your opinion under clear new evidence, you are throwing a temper tantrum that makes the board much less pleasant. You have mistaken "dying on a hill" on an old opinion for something stoic, when in fact it's childish.
Since Deni changed his shot, his three point percentage went up eight percent while taking more threes. His free throw percentage went up twenty percent. You are clinging to "inconsistency in games" in this argument when fifth grade math can tell you his percentages speak for themselves.
I don't know why anyone would want to be "that guy" when discussing any subject, but replacing evidence with hyperbole won't work out for you long-term.
prove that he changed his shot and it showed in games against good defenses in EL and maybe I will change my opinion. I do not agree he made any changes that were leading to significant improvements and you clearly were not paying attn to him at all if you think so. You can have your "everybody must agree with my unproven opinions" or be labelled a child mantra
surprising coming from a mod
I'mWithDan
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The concern definitely is he does sometimes get physically overwhelmed by taller players. As a defender, Alexander is a good perimeter defender against like sized players, as he does have length that is bothersome but that length seems to get mitigated by a lack of strength. I think that can be remedied to some degree but lacking a bit of defensive versatility on the wing will hurt him for sure.
With that said, I do think his elite skill is his shooting projection.........Alexander has seen rather significant year over year increases in most categories
Per 100:
Frosh: 3.9 FTA, 9 3PA, .333 3PT%, .707 FT%
Soph: 5.5 FTA, 13.7 3PA, .365 3PT%, .794 FT%
Junior: 7.2 FTA, 10.8 3PA, .399 3PT%, .860 FT%
It would be tough to find a player with similar shooting graphs.....and he couples that with rock solid shooting mechanics. Elevation, high entry, high release and it all looks very effortless......he just seems like a slam dunk 40% shooter at the NBA level.....and if he's able to guard 1's or 2's, you can certainly envision him being a plus player.
Looking at his advanced offensive metrics, it again is just a near perfect curve.
Frosh: 0.5 OWS, 0.7 OBPM, 1.9 BPM
Soph: 2.2 OWS, 3.4 OBPM, 4.5 BPM
Junior: 3.4 OWS, 5.8 OBPM, 7.7 BPM
A vast majority of metrics have continually been improving year over year.....and this past season he was a near 60% TS as a guard. That is pretty tough to do at volume. I agree his defense is the concern....but a 2 DBPM player in college should probably be able to tread water at the NBA level....and if he does that, he's become such a knockdown shooter, that I would bet on him having the chance to stick long term.
When speaking specifically about Butler, Alexander is a far more efficient scorer. He's also far better at producing defensive stats without fouling. I would imagine Butler will foul his way off the court often. That is also one of the reasons why Butlers none scoring impact is negative....whereas Alexander is a plus non scoring player with his shooting gravity, rebounding and AST/TO ratio. Alexander I think isn't being given credit for being a solid athlete, where things like his rebounding rate, steal rate and foul rate would tend to intimate he's possibly underrated. It's tough for non athletes to produce a good REB+STL/PF figure and Alexander does. I'm curious to see what his athletic testing is.