2020 NBA Draft

[Jcrawdad]

Anyone else on the Zeke Nnaji bandwagon yet? I think he's easily a lottery pick, if not more. Could be the top big in the draft if he keeps this up.

 

[Jcrawdad]

Whatever 6'2" point guard is available the Cavs will draft him.

 

[Muffinalt]

How much do you guys like Onyeka Okongwu? Is he likely to translate his rim protection and defense to the NBA?

 

[Nathan S]

How much do you guys like Onyeka Okongwu? Is he likely to translate his rim protection and defense to the NBA?

I think I buy his defense, but he doesn't seem to have the shooting/passing skill you want to see in a modern 5. Late lottery, tentatively?

Haliburton looking really, really good. Release getting quicker on the 3. He's more than doubled his scoring and assist rates from last year, with hardly any dropoff in efficiency. Rebound and steal rates way up too. By box plus/minus, he's on course for one of the best seasons ever by a college PG.

 

[daytripper]

How much do you guys like Onyeka Okongwu? Is he likely to translate his rim protection and defense to the NBA?

Fun fact my son played against him in HS. ( For reference my kid is still in HS and is a 6'-2" guard). Big O was dominant in HS and AAU. His coach over at Chino Hills wanted to feature him more which is why Lavar pulled Melo out of HS here in CA. I haven't caught any of his college games yet. I'd be fine if the Cavs draft him with a later pick assuming they acquire one. I do agree they moreso need to find a guy who can pass and shoot with their lottery pick and that's probably not Okongwu.
There's another local kid named Evan Mobley who I predict is going to be a real star in the NBA but he won't be eligible for the draft until 2021.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Avdija is looking better. I think he has one of the highest upsides in the draft. He is kind of a tweener until he either bulks up or improves his 3pt shot. Although his shot looks better.

 

[Muffinalt]

Fun fact my son played against him in HS. ( For reference my kid is still in HS and is a 6'-2" guard). Big O was dominant in HS and AAU. His coach over at Chino Hills wanted to feature him more which is why Lavar pulled Melo out of HS here in CA. I haven't caught any of his college games yet. I'd be fine if the Cavs draft him with a later pick assuming they acquire one. I do agree they moreso need to find a guy who can pass and shoot with their lottery pick and that's probably not Okongwu.
There's another local kid named Evan Mobley who I predict is going to be a real star in the NBA but he won't be eligible for the draft until 2021.

How cool that you're involved in the scene! Good luck to your kid, hope he makes the league and has fun.

Yeah I like Okongwu, just I'm so weary of 6'9 guys with no exceptional wingspan not translating their blocking skills to the NBA ever since weve seen it first hand with Tristan. But I understand O is a little different with better instincts and bigger hands. And of course there is always the Big Ben outlier.

I like Evan Mobley too. Haven't seen a ton of him yet, but a very interesting prospect for sure. I hope he can add the strength though because I'm always afraid be will break something any time I see him.

 

[benchplayer]

how would you rate this draft class compared to last year? stronger or weaker?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Haliburton looking really, really good. Release getting quicker on the 3. He's more than doubled his scoring and assist rates from last year, with hardly any dropoff in efficiency. Rebound and steal rates way up too. By box plus/minus, he's on course for one of the best seasons ever by a college PG.

His below average scoring rate and bad free throw rate are still concerning. I just don't know how he can effect the game offensively at the NBA level. His numbers are almost identical, per 100, to Lonzo Ball......and I think that is a more concerning comp to TH. He rates out really well in my stuff but that natural comp, with eerily similar numbers and weaknesses is kind of scary.

Here is that split with Lonzo mentioned......the image software on here is going haywire and won't imbed.

https://i.ibb.co/SJmvTfk/Screenshot-2019-12-10-11-43-15.png

The correlation coefficient isn't quite as predictable on shooting with guards (SHOF - Shooting Future, SHOP - Shooting Potential) but it flagged Ball as a shooting regression candidate at the NBA level and is doing the same for Haliburton. So if he regresses as a shooter in a meaningful way, he's suddenly a very unuseful NBA player on offense.

 

[Nathan S]

His below average scoring rate and bad free throw rate are still concerning. I just don't know how he can effect the game offensively at the NBA level. His numbers are almost identical, per 100, to Lonzo Ball......and I think that is a more concerning comp to TH. He rates out really well in my stuff but that natural comp, with eerily similar numbers and weaknesses is kind of scary.

Here is that split with Lonzo mentioned......the image software on here is going haywire and won't imbed.

https://i.ibb.co/SJmvTfk/Screenshot-2019-12-10-11-43-15.png

The correlation coefficient isn't quite as predictable on shooting with guards (SHOF - Shooting Future, SHOP - Shooting Potential) but it flagged Ball as a shooting regression candidate at the NBA level and is doing the same for Haliburton. So if he regresses as a shooter in a meaningful way, he's suddenly a very unuseful NBA player on offense.

I think that's a pretty fair comparison, and a good argument against prematurely vaulting Haliburton into the top-5 or top-3 of a big board. A prospect with a Ball/Haliburton kind of profile should be a lock for top-10, though, because you're looking at an excellent combo guard if the shot does translate.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Early season guy that is jumping off the page in my stuff......that no one is talking about (other than Paul Reed )

Tyler Bey - really liked him last year.....he's generally improved all around this year. Eye popping defensive metrics with an increased 3PT rate and an elite FT, STL and REB rate.

I laughed at how little youtube stuff was out there on him last year.....I feel like it is even worse this year. The handful of NBA people I still talk to absolutely love his versatility.

Probably more of a fringe lottery pick but someone who could really help a good team.

 

[daytripper]

How cool that you're involved in the scene! Good luck to your kid, hope he makes the league and has fun.

Yeah I like Okongwu, just I'm so weary of 6'9 guys with no exceptional wingspan not translating their blocking skills to the NBA ever since weve seen it first hand with Tristan. But I understand O is a little different with better instincts and bigger hands. And of course there is always the Big Ben outlier.

I like Evan Mobley too. Haven't seen a ton of him yet, but a very interesting prospect for sure. I hope he can add the strength though because I'm always afraid be will break something any time I see him.

Thx man. My kid has zero chance to go to the league but he loves to play and has had interest from a few smaller schools. It is pretty cool to see some of these pro prospects firsthand at the hs level though. Some kids like Bol you just knew wouldn't really make. Then you have someone like Lonzo where we all thought would be the next big thing. Like most hs kids Mobley needs to hit the weight room but he looks really special. I like him better than Bagley at the same age.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I think that's a pretty fair comparison, and a good argument against prematurely vaulting Haliburton into the top-5 or top-3 of a big board. A prospect with a Ball/Haliburton kind of profile should be a lock for top-10, though, because you're looking at an excellent combo guard if the shot does translate.

For sure. I wouldn't hesitate to take him in the lottery. It gets a little harder in the top 5. His floor is pretty high, just as an all around high IQ two way player..... His ceiling is just so dependent on his shot at this point. Guys with really low free throw rates tend to bust a lot more often as shooters, especially when they are more average FT shooters. Kevin Huerter is really the only guy who had Haliburton's similar combination of shooting markers (good 3PT shooter at average or better volume, low free throw rate, average FT shooter), at either guard position and went on to be a 38%+ 3PT shooter at the NBA level. There are a few guys at or a tick above league average (Hardaway, Parsons) but it's not a great spot to be in.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Yeah I like Okongwu, just I'm so weary of 6'9 guys with no exceptional wingspan not translating their blocking skills to the NBA ever since weve seen it first hand with Tristan. But I understand O is a little different with better instincts and bigger hands. And of course there is always the Big Ben outlier.

Okongwu is mentioned in several places as having a 7'0"+ wingspan. Is that not enough for someone who's 6'9"?

Analytically, he's pretty good through 10 games, especially as someone who can play the 5.....seems like a Clint Capella type profile.

I admittedly have not watched any of his games but if the main concern is his length, it appears there's enough evidence out there to tentatively refute him being below average length wise.

 

[Muffinalt]

Okongwu is mentioned in several places as having a 7'0"+ wingspan. Is that not enough for someone who's 6'9"?

Analytically, he's pretty good through 10 games, especially as someone who can play the 5.....seems like a Clint Capella type profile.

I admittedly have not watched any of his games but if the main concern is his length, it appears there's enough evidence out there to tentatively refute him being below average length wise.

Yeah didn't want to imply he has below average length, but rather that I'm afraid of guys under 6'10" who don't have an exceptional (not just good) wingspan (in the neighbourhood of 7'2"+) to compensate. So if he turns out to have a 7'0" wingspan I'm pretty sceptical.

I think it's all because of the firsthand experience with TT. He also measured a near 7'2" wingspan and was blocking a lot in college, but couldn't translate it at all to the NBA. I could be too biased based on this but that's why I'm asking.

I always wonder what really translates to being a rim protector at the next level. Is timing and jumping ability far superior to length and can it make up effectively for a below average standing reach? Or is there an actual cap? There are so many of these guys who are legit forces in college but their blocking ability disappears in the NBA.

But for what it's worth Okongwu really is putting up some good numbers. If anyone has the chance from this draft to calm my scepticism, it's probably him. Plus he seems to be pretty mobile and somewhat switchable, so even if he's just an average rim protector once he's in the league he still fits the modern game really well.