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2020 NBA Draft

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Has Aaron Nesmith been talked about at all yet? I glanced back and I don't believe I saw his name mentioned.

I was digging through some of my stuff, kind of at the halfway point here and he really jumped off the page on the wing.

Appears he is out for the season with a foot injury but his 17 game start was one of the better wing starts I have seen in the possession era. Just his mix of shooting volume, FT percentage and STL/+BLK stats.

He's definitely flagged as someone who should be a pretty big riser in mocks. Maybe that is dampened a bit by the injury.

I mentioned him a couple weeks back as a 3-point volume outlier. Obviously the injury dampens his outlook a little, and I'm wary of the weak SOS he faced, but he should be in the conversation nonetheless.
 
I mentioned him a couple weeks back as a 3-point volume outlier. Obviously the injury dampens his outlook a little, and I'm wary of the weak SOS he faced, but he should be in the conversation nonetheless.

It's too bad he got injured, just seeing his scoring volume and efficiency. He was pacing towards a top 5 PPFGA, for anyone tagged as PG/SG, SG or SG/SF in the data I have.

Even if you adjust his stats for a shooting regression, he still looks like a Klay Thompson ish player. Klay had more interesting assist numbers but if you blindly profile them over 20-25 markers, it is pretty eery how similar their production is across the board.

I admittedly know nothing about him.....and will eventually watch some film but even against weak competition, guys who are considered 1st round picks have pretty positive outcome percentages where he sits analytically. Curious to see what the announced injury is and how he measures at the combine.
 
It's too bad he got injured, just seeing his scoring volume and efficiency. He was pacing towards a top 5 PPFGA, for anyone tagged as PG/SG, SG or SG/SF in the data I have.

Even if you adjust his stats for a shooting regression, he still looks like a Klay Thompson ish player. Klay had more interesting assist numbers but if you blindly profile them over 20-25 markers, it is pretty eery how similar their production is across the board.

I admittedly know nothing about him.....and will eventually watch some film but even against weak competition, guys who are considered 1st round picks have pretty positive outcome percentages where he sits analytically. Curious to see what the announced injury is and how he measures at the combine.

I'm not even as worried about his assists as I would normally be because he was fine in that area as a freshman. More of a finisher role this season as he's often playing with two PGs.
 
-Reggie Perry didn't attract quite as much buzz as Haliburton in college last year, but surely helped his stock by claiming tournament MVP. He led a balanced USA attack with 13.1 points per game, and also averaged team-highs in rebounds (7.9) and blocks (1.0) per game. At 6'10" with a fantastic frame and a developing outside shot, he has the profile of a modern small-ball 5.

Was glad to see he got a shout out earlier in the thread. As I am slowly getting more data imported here, Perry is having a great year. He really stands out in the guys who are currently sitting on that 1st round bubble in consensus mocks. Just a great mix of stats for a big. I'd imagine he's more like a mid 1st when it is all said and done, if he carries this through the year.
 
Was glad to see he got a shout out earlier in the thread. As I am slowly getting more data imported here, Perry is having a great year. He really stands out in the guys who are currently sitting on that 1st round bubble in consensus mocks. Just a great mix of stats for a big. I'd imagine he's more like a mid 1st when it is all said and done, if he carries this through the year.

If you watched Georgia-Mississippi St, you could be excused for thinking Perry, not Edwards, was the blue-chip prospect in that game. He's been on a tear recently and definitely has room to rise if his 3-ball starts falling more consistently.
 
Keep trying to get excited about this draft but it is really really hard . I think the big O from USC and Toppin from Dayton will be good pros, but not guys you build around. Not sold that Edwards and Ball are franchise players as of now. I like Hayes from France but Man this class is very limited when it comes to guys who have major upside
 
I know he's been mentioned in here, but Paul Reed is legit. If you haven't watched a DePaul game, try to find one. His highlights are impressive, but watching a full game shows the better picture of his impact. Just so smooth and athletic, strong & long enough to guard the post and has the lateral quickness to guard on the perimeter.

Offensively, he's really solid around the basket, has a little jump hook that is money. His jump shot is certainly not a thing of beauty, but it isn't totally broken, I think he could develop a decent 3 point shot here. He's not the type that can create his own shot, but he'd be great with Garland, lobs and cuts to the basket would be fun to watch. He is everything that Nance should be.
Seems to have a high motor. Will probably carve out a nice career as a role player big ,, maybe more. Reminds me a bit of Tyrone Hill fro the 90s
 
Keep trying to get excited about this draft but it is really really hard . I think the big O from USC and Toppin from Dayton will be good pros, but not guys you build around. Not sold that Edwards and Ball are franchise players as of now. I like Hayes from France but Man this class is very limited when it comes to guys who have major upside

Edwards still clinging to the #1 spot in most mocks in hoopshype's compilation, but man, the wheels are really starting to come off for him. Statistically might be the weakest #1 pick in modern history (out of NCAA prospects) if it happens. Amazingly, 13 different players feature in the top-5 of at least one mock, highlighting just how fluid the lottery is.
 
Edwards still clinging to the #1 spot in most mocks in hoopshype's compilation, but man, the wheels are really starting to come off for him. Statistically might be the weakest #1 pick in modern history (out of NCAA prospects) if it happens. Amazingly, 13 different players feature in the top-5 of at least one mock, highlighting just how fluid the lottery is.
Edwards just has a low basketball iq . It is a shame because he has some Donovan Mitchell physical tools, but he does not play the game the right way at all. Not sure those habits can be broken. I recall wasting two years having some pretty big names on this board argue that Dion Waiters would become a smarter player. Now he has more physical gifts then Dion but sadly they both play out of control in a similar fashion.

if you could somehow make him into an off guard that handled the ball a lot less Edwards would have a much better outlook.

I see Nesmith was brought up. Crazy that this has happened to vandy two years in a row. Dude can shoot, has a pretty quick release and is 6‘6. That is worth something in today’s nba . Not a great athlete but I don’t think he is a poor one either. He could look pretty good next to Porter and Garland too. Too bad we won’t have a bigger sample size.
 
Edwards just has a low basketball iq . It is a shame because he has some Donovan Mitchell physical tools, but he does not play the game the right way at all. Not sure those habits can be broken. I recall wasting two years having some pretty big names on this board argue that Dion Waiters would become a smarter player. Now he has more physical gifts then Dion but sadly they both play out of control in a similar fashion.

if you could somehow make him into an off guard that handled the ball a lot less Edwards would have a much better outlook.

I see Nesmith was brought up. Crazy that this has happened to vandy two years in a row. Dude can shoot, has a pretty quick release and is 6‘6. That is worth something in today’s nba . Not a great athlete but I don’t think he is a poor one either. He could look pretty good next to Porter and Garland too. Too bad we won’t have a bigger sample size.

Yeah. Georgia wasn't expected to be good, but I don't think they were expected to be quite this bad either. They're losing by an average of 11 per game in conference play, and Edwards' only strategy is to jack 3's...which has worked 1 time in 6 games so far. Even if you think the 3-ball is the #1 thing that matters, there's little evidence that he's any better at it than Sexton or Garland.
 
Statistically might be the weakest #1 pick in modern history (out of NCAA prospects) if it happens.

He would be, unequivocally, the worst analytical pick in the possession era.....and he would be significantly worse than both Wiggins and Bennett, who were both in the baseline, completely average prospect profile.

His impact score is roughly 14% lower than Wiggins' was.....which is pretty eye opening. That type of gap is just generally unheard of, when considering the statistical certainty that typically comes with the #1 overall pick.

That was kind of my argument for Wiseman, pages pack.....is just that I have enough data to reasonably say someone like Edwards doesn't succeed often......and to me, that is enough to roll the dice on someone like Wiseman, who has immense physical talent.
 
He would be, unequivocally, the worst analytical pick in the possession era.....and he would be significantly worse than both Wiggins and Bennett, who were both in the baseline, completely average prospect profile.

His impact score is roughly 14% lower than Wiggins' was.....which is pretty eye opening. That type of gap is just generally unheard of, when considering the statistical certainty that typically comes with the #1 overall pick.

That was kind of my argument for Wiseman, pages pack.....is just that I have enough data to reasonably say someone like Edwards doesn't succeed often......and to me, that is enough to roll the dice on someone like Wiseman, who has immense physical talent.

I really hate rolling the dice on a guy for whom there's very little evidence that he's an elite prospect. But it's undeniably better than rolling the dice on a guy who's produced abundant evidence that he's not an elite prospect.

I imagine my draft rater might like Edwards a little bit more than Bennett or Wiggins on the grounds of his decent assist:TO numbers, but we're splitting hairs between guys who should go in the late lottery and guys who should go in the teens. None of them belong in the conversation for a #1 pick if GMs have their heads on straight.
 
Looking at the players draft rankings on espn and noticed 5 of top 8 are listed as PGs. Hate to say it but if we end up 6-7-8 in the draft lottery we could almost be forced to take another PG for the 3rd year in a row. BPA
 
Looking at the players draft rankings on espn and noticed 5 of top 8 are listed as PGs. Hate to say it but if we end up 6-7-8 in the draft lottery we could almost be forced to take another PG for the 3rd year in a row. BPA
Right now, we're 50/50 to stay in the top 4 based on having the 3rd worst record (tied with NY)

I think the Hawks will end up passing us, and I think there's a chance the Warriors do as well. However, if we stay right where we are, there's less than a 10% chance of us picking below 6th.

I understand the concern, but I don't see a scenario where our hand would be forced in that manner.
 
Took the temp of the aggregate mock at the half way point. Hold your nose.


Wiseman is limited data, so it means little.....but it is what it is.

Only 3 other players currently profile as top 5 like selections.....Haliburton, Toppin, Okongwu.

7 of the 11 college players in the current aggregate lottery profile as below average prospects. That is just horrendous. Just for context, only 4 of 14 profiled as below average prospects last year....and one of those was a limited data player. Yikes.

Cole Anthony and Maxey are historically bad in my profile. The only other lottery guard with PDIFF score in that deep purple range was Austin Rivers.

The data is definitely sobering here......it seems like a draft where someone like Haliburton may really be coveted because his floor is so high. And it's pretty clear, to me, that Okongwu will probably be a top 5 pick. He might even be the guy I take #1 considering his mix of frame, skill and age.
 

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