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2020 Offseason

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I think you are taking the wrong lesson from the stats you are looking at. If it doesn't predict anything, what good is it and why should you use it on rookies if most rookies are a net negative? Stats are meant to give us information, but in the case of rookies they tell us they are all bad. To me that is like saying a baby is bad at walking. Compared to an adult, yeah they are. What good does that do? Does it mean the baby will never walk?

Looking at full year stats for rookies tell you not much. If you look at stats on Garland's floater it looks like it sucks or is ok. But that doesn't tell the whole story because it greatly improved from horrible to real weapon for him over the course of the year. No way to tell that without looking at the stats over time.

We seem to get into this argument every day where you talk about how much stats hate rookies. I am well aware.

I guess I totally can't tell what your point is? "there's no guarantee Porter is an allstar". We all know that. You can take that argument to an absurd degree and say that the NBA may not be around by the time Porter is in his prime or the world may explode and you wouldn't be wrong, but I can't tell what it adds?

I said that about not paying attention because commentators and other fan bases like Porter more than you do. Why are all of these people and the articles below so far off about him?

USA today says he might be our best prospect


"Cavaliers may have struck gold"


IS KPJ the most underrated prospect


Voted steal of the draft by his peers before the season.

KPJ is 21stin the league in drawing fouls at the rim.

"On attempts 0-3 feet out, KPJ has hit 71.8 percent of those on a frequency of 29.5 percent" That's better percentage than Lebron his rookie year.

We all know the stats aren't all in and there is no guarantee that he is going to be an allstar, but you can't say there is no hint of him being elite.

He had a 30 pts 8 rebounds 3 steals and 3 assists in that win over Miami. Who has put up such stats before the age of 22 since 2000? The only 2 non-multiple allstars to do it of which there are 47 are Aaron Gordon and Quentin Richardson. Lebron shows up on that list a bunch. Only 2 guys did it before 20 like KPJ did. Lebron and Kevin Durant. That's it.

You can pretend our enthusiasm is not based on anything, but the Cavs spent a lot of money on him, other teams are jealous, and the fans are excited. I am not sure you are the one being realistic and we are the ones that aren't.
You might want to go back and read my posts because I feel like you're arguing against a bunch of things I never said
 
Question:
Is the lineup sexton/kpj/nance/love/drummond with the bench of garland/cedi/windler/draft pick a playoff team next year?
 
Question:
Is the lineup sexton/kpj/nance/love/drummond with the bench of garland/cedi/windler/draft pick a playoff team next year?
I don't think so, but I would hope that core could at least win 30 games which would be a good step forward.
 
Question:
Is the lineup sexton/kpj/nance/love/drummond with the bench of garland/cedi/windler/draft pick a playoff team next year?

I think it all depends on how much better the young guys get over the summer. I don't doubt Sexton will keep working. The question is if Garland and KPJ take the next step. Also how well we draft this year will have an impact. Not having those last games of this season and no summer league will set us back more than most teams. Garland, Windier, and whoever we draft would have needed summer league to work on their games.
 
For
I think it all depends on how much better the young guys get over the summer. I don't doubt Sexton will keep working. The question is if Garland and KPJ take the next step. Also how well we draft this year will have an impact. Not having those last games of this season and no summer league will set us back more than most teams. Garland, Windier, and whoever we draft would have needed summer league to work on their games.
For some reason, I can see a major trade that could change the starting lineup. I don't know who, except it probably won't be one of the big guys. The roster has been a hodge-podge since LBJ left and it needs more focus.
 
Garland
Edwards
KPJ
Love
Drummond

Sexton
Cedi
Windler
Nance
Free Agent

Garland and especially KPJ flashed at times last year and if they can both improve next season i think this team makes the playoffs. Add in the super talented Edwards and you've got numerous young wings with huge potential for the future. I'm really excited about KPJ's development, He is so smooth and naturally athletic.

 
He had a 30 pts 8 rebounds 3 steals and 3 assists in that win over Miami. Who has put up such stats before the age of 22 since 2000? The only 2 non-multiple allstars to do it of which there are 47 are Aaron Gordon and Quentin Richardson. Lebron shows up on that list a bunch. Only 2 guys did it before 20 like KPJ did. Lebron and Kevin Durant. That's it.
If I read this correctly, only 49 players ever had a 30/8/3/3 game before age 22 in the last 19 years and 47 of the 49 turned out to be multiple All-Stars?

OK, I'm liking those numbers. It sounds like statistically Porter has a 95.9% chance of being a multiple All-Star.

And it's not like he had one huge game at the end of the season against a bad lottery team tanking for the draft. The Heat are 41-24 and were trying to stay in 4th place for home court advantage in the first round.

One interesting stat I noticed was that when Porter played 0-9 minutes his true shooting percentage was 26.6%. When he played 10-19 minutes it improved to 37.6%. From 20-29 it took a huge leap to 57.1% and above that it was 55.2% and then 59.6% in his two games above 40 minutes. IOW, the more minutes he played the better he shot.

After Clarkson was traded Porter got more consistent minutes, which is what he needs. Assuming he'll play at least 30 minutes per game next year we should see a major improvement in his numbers.

What he really needs is a mid-range game. Yeah, he shot nearly 72% within three feet of the rim but beyond that the best he could do was 35.4%. From 10' to the 3-point line he was only 29.5% so he really could use a mid-range jumper, not that the Cavs want to shoot many of them.

My point is that with consistent heavy minutes and if he can work on his mid-range jumper or develop a Delly/Sexton floater he could make a big jump.
 
Garland
Edwards
KPJ
Love
Drummond

Sexton
Cedi
Windler
Nance
Free Agent

Garland and especially KPJ flashed at times last year and if they can both improve next season i think this team makes the playoffs. Add in the super talented Edwards and you've got numerous young wings with huge potential for the future. I'm really excited about KPJ's development, He is so smooth and naturally athletic.

I like that team and think it could potentially be a playoff team. The question for me is how good is that starting group defensively?
I think they could score a ton but Garland has to get a lot better defensively, he was atrocious last year. Who knows how good Edwards would be...KPJ is a question mark and we all know how rough Love is on the defensive end.
Offensively I'd love to watch that group.
 
If I read this correctly, only 49 players ever had a 30/8/3/3 game before age 22 in the last 19 years and 47 of the 49 turned out to be multiple All-Stars?

OK, I'm liking those numbers. It sounds like statistically Porter has a 95.9% chance of being a multiple All-Star.

And it's not like he had one huge game at the end of the season against a bad lottery team tanking for the draft. The Heat are 41-24 and were trying to stay in 4th place for home court advantage in the first round.

One interesting stat I noticed was that when Porter played 0-9 minutes his true shooting percentage was 26.6%. When he played 10-19 minutes it improved to 37.6%. From 20-29 it took a huge leap to 57.1% and above that it was 55.2% and then 59.6% in his two games above 40 minutes. IOW, the more minutes he played the better he shot.

After Clarkson was traded Porter got more consistent minutes, which is what he needs. Assuming he'll play at least 30 minutes per game next year we should see a major improvement in his numbers.

What he really needs is a mid-range game. Yeah, he shot nearly 72% within three feet of the rim but beyond that the best he could do was 35.4%. From 10' to the 3-point line he was only 29.5% so he really could use a mid-range jumper, not that the Cavs want to shoot many of them.

My point is that with consistent heavy minutes and if he can work on his mid-range jumper or develop a Delly/Sexton floater he could make a big jump.

Most players have similar splits.

I think you have the cause and effect flipped though. It's more likely that he's playing more minutes in the games where he's shooting well than it is that he's shooting better because he's playing more.

I like that team and think it could potentially be a playoff team. The question for me is how good is that starting group defensively?
I think they could score a ton but Garland has to get a lot better defensively, he was atrocious last year. Who knows how good Edwards would be...KPJ is a question mark and we all know how rough Love is on the defensive end.
Offensively I'd love to watch that group.

Heck, even without additional offensive talent the offense was pretty damn effective once the calendar flipped to 2020.
 
Most players have similar splits.

I think you have the cause and effect flipped though. It's more likely that he's playing more minutes in the games where he's shooting well than it is that he's shooting better because he's playing more.



Heck, even without additional offensive talent the offense was pretty damn effective once the calendar flipped to 2020.

KPJ's minutes went up because Clarkson left. I will say, he was sort of the mascot for the team. Lots of the vets liked him and when he was hot they got him the ball. JB seemed to really encourage feeding the hot hand more than Beilein who would sit a guy when he got hot because it was time to sit.

Agree the offense was decent at the end there. They need defensive players badly. I know they knew most of Andre's weaknesses, but even I was a little surprised how ineffective he is on the defensive end, and a lot of the problem is him just not staying focused.
 
KPJ's minutes went up because Clarkson left. I will say, he was sort of the mascot for the team. Lots of the vets liked him and when he was hot they got him the ball. JB seemed to really encourage feeding the hot hand more than Beilein who would sit a guy when he got hot because it was time to sit.

Agree the offense was decent at the end there. They need defensive players badly. I know they knew most of Andre's weaknesses, but even I was a little surprised how ineffective he is on the defensive end, and a lot of the problem is him just not staying focused.
yep Drummond just looks at the rebuild as a 2 year paid vacation imo. Maybe he cares even when it doesn't matter, but I am guessing the perfect situation for the Cavs org is to luck into Okongwu in the draft to replace Andre after playing behind him the 20-21 season
 
KPJ's minutes went up because Clarkson left. I will say, he was sort of the mascot for the team. Lots of the vets liked him and when he was hot they got him the ball. JB seemed to really encourage feeding the hot hand more than Beilein who would sit a guy when he got hot because it was time to sit.

Agree the offense was decent at the end there. They need defensive players badly. I know they knew most of Andre's weaknesses, but even I was a little surprised how ineffective he is on the defensive end, and a lot of the problem is him just not staying focused.
I know, but he also got dinged up and struggled in quite a few games down the stretch where he ended up playing limited minutes.

All I was pointing out was that looking at those minutes splits isn't particularly helpful. The only thing you might learn is if a guy has conditioning issues and plays substantially worse when his minutes increase.
 
If I read this correctly, only 49 players ever had a 30/8/3/3 game before age 22 in the last 19 years and 47 of the 49 turned out to be multiple All-Stars?

OK, I'm liking those numbers. It sounds like statistically Porter has a 95.9% chance of being a multiple All-Star.

And it's not like he had one huge game at the end of the season against a bad lottery team tanking for the draft. The Heat are 41-24 and were trying to stay in 4th place for home court advantage in the first round.

One interesting stat I noticed was that when Porter played 0-9 minutes his true shooting percentage was 26.6%. When he played 10-19 minutes it improved to 37.6%. From 20-29 it took a huge leap to 57.1% and above that it was 55.2% and then 59.6% in his two games above 40 minutes. IOW, the more minutes he played the better he shot.

After Clarkson was traded Porter got more consistent minutes, which is what he needs. Assuming he'll play at least 30 minutes per game next year we should see a major improvement in his numbers.

What he really needs is a mid-range game. Yeah, he shot nearly 72% within three feet of the rim but beyond that the best he could do was 35.4%. From 10' to the 3-point line he was only 29.5% so he really could use a mid-range jumper, not that the Cavs want to shoot many of them.

My point is that with consistent heavy minutes and if he can work on his mid-range jumper or develop a Delly/Sexton floater he could make a big jump.

Yes. The way he played in that game against Miami he looked like a calm vet. He started scoring at a high level, got some steals and took them full court, then as the defense locked in on him he passed the ball and basically put the team on his back. I would have thought it was a fluke, but he did the same thing against Harden in that Rockets game they came from 12 down or something to battle until the last second.

I saw people saying Barrett was better, but KPJ had a much better season and had more assists and fin shed better at the rim than Barrett(his 2 main strengths). They were touting Barrett's 27 point game against Atlanta, who cannot guard anyone.

One thing I will say about the mid range game. That is going to be an adjustment just like Darius' floater. KPJ' shot selection was terrible there in the mid range. Just taking shots he had not business taking too early in the clock. They were all off the dribble and he got space on those shots and clanked them. He needs to reduce the amount of movement he uses to get that space and get the shot off, and he really needs to work on his shot selection. Shot selection was my biggest worry for him coming in, and it was well-founded. I don't know how the Cavs coach that and if it is Garrity or not, but they have really cleaned up Collin's shot selection and KPJ made major major strides there too.

I am not concerned about his mid range game. That is going to come around. I wasn't sure about his shot in general, but his ft% is up and he shot really well at the end of the year. He needs to clean up his form and some of the extra movement he has. Didn't have aton of bad misses, just bouncing off the rim.
 

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