2020 Presidential Election Preview: The Race to the Bottom

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Who Will Now Win the Democratic Nomination

  • Uncle Joe Biden

    Votes: 14 77.8%
  • Uncle Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 3 16.7%
  • Neither, Brokered Convention in a Warren Win

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Comrade Gabbard

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Uncle Tremendous Maine Coon

    Votes: 2 11.1%
  • Jeff Bazos, Paying Cash Money

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    18
  • Poll closed .

Lee

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Also head Kelly +13 in the senate.

Only 1 poll and it's May, but if it's accurate....
I just love that McSally can no longer run on the "fighter Pilot" Martha McSally as "Astronaut Tim Kelley" sounds much better.

She is saying the $1200 stimulus check she is personally responsible for saved millions of Arizonans from poverty, really laughable commercials.
 

Sebastian

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Agree on all counts. I kinda wish the daily briefings were still taking place...

Lots of time left but Quinnipiac at least a reputable pollster.
The internal polling the GOP has was not good.

You can tell, since that came out about 10 days ago the Trump Campaign has started on the five avenues they have left unless the economy recovers in six months:

1) Beijing Biden.
2) Pedo Biden.
3) Senile Biden.
4) Obamagate stuff.
5) Democrat/Virus Conspiracy.

None of that stuff is likely to work because most people rightfully see all of it as nonsense, or, it puts Trump in a losing fight head to head with Biden in comparison.

Trump was effusive with his China praise with COVID and over the past few years, Trump is an admitted pedo, Digging into Mueller stuff only reminds people he wasn't indicted because he's a sitting POTUS and no one is in the mood to be charitable to Trump, especially since Biden is pretty blameless vis-a-vis the virus. He can't trade blows with Biden on those topics.

This is what I see happening if either the economy doesn't improve, or there isn't much of a second COVID wave:

a) Biden maintains a 3-6% lead through summer.
b) Trump has his GOP convention and it is an utter shit-show of the most ludicrous campaign messenging with a combo of Beijing Biden/Obamagate stuff. He tries to pawn off responsibility for COVID. Doesn't give Trump a bounce. Trump really digs into senile Biden.
c) Democrat Convention follows: People start to buy some of the Senile Biden stuff, but then Biden gives a great, passionate, energetic speech. Biden's VP pick makes a great impression injects some energy with the women and younger folks presuming she isn't a bad choice.
d) Biden gets a 4-6% bounce.
e) Biden takes a 6-8% lead through the Fall and unless something drastic happens Trump loses roughly by 53%-45%. Record turnout, beats 2008. GOP wins in AL, but loses in AZ, MT, CO, KS, NC and ME. And probably one of KY, SC, IA and GA.

Of course, if the economy gets worse, like millions or foreclosures as bills come due after July when the CARES Act is done, etc., or if the Second Wave is catastrophically bad, Trump probably loses by 10%.

Trump can still win if Biden falls apart, the economy mostly recovers by October, or all kinds of women start coming out saying Biden raped them and turnout is low. Or the Russians heavily interfere but that could lead to some really ugly consequences.
 

CleveRocks

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I think Biden wins regardless but don't underestimate the impact of the Obamacare stuff..

Trump's ground zero problem is his inability to appeal to women voters...IMHO..

He is a womanizer, a braggart, and aggressive to other people, often insensitive...All things that will kill his support there..

His strength is China.. if he can convince the working public that Biden will return to free trade with China, I think he will gain ground.. but I still don't see how he moves the mountain of negative..
 

Vindicate2

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This might be an ageist statement and something not pleasant to think about , but I am legitimately concerned that the winner could end up being physically incapacitated or something worse during their term.

I will be paying more attention to the VP debates. Sadly, one of them might be called into action.
 
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cavsfan1985

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At this point I think the election comes down to a few basic things, as neither one is going to get a lot of support from the other side.

Turnout in the battle ground states. I think a lower turnout helps Republicans a ton in these states as most are already red, and if you have a lower turnout I feel it will be on the Democrat side. If you see record votes in the Midwest, game over for Trump on election night before the West Coast even closed the booths.

Economy: if we are able to see any kind of recovery, or atleast a recovery in the battle ground states, I think it helps Trump a lot. I think we are going to see even more push from the Red states to get the economy going at all cost, it will help keep them Red, and help Trump. In a state like MI. The battle ground states like MI with democrat governors are going to be pounded by ads saying how the governor not Trump failed them. This will go over great with Trump supporters and could get those in the middle to consider Trump, if they were in a good spot before this, and the blame is shifted to a democratic governor.

I still think the race is wide open, and Trump has a legit shot to win again. But the margin for error is very very small.

On a separate note. I wonder how the map is looking for the House. I feel that there could be a swing back to the Republicans this year. Based solely on the fact, blue states and states with democrat governors have had some of the most restrictive stay at home orders. I think this is going to open the door for Republicans in the contested areas to have a great message.
 

Zeus69

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The internal polling the GOP has was not good.

You can tell, since that came out about 10 days ago the Trump Campaign has started on the five avenues they have left unless the economy recovers in six months:

1) Beijing Biden.
2) Pedo Biden.
3) Senile Biden.
4) Obamagate stuff.
5) Democrat/Virus Conspiracy.

None of that stuff is likely to work because most people rightfully see all of it as nonsense, or, it puts Trump in a losing fight head to head with Biden in comparison.

Trump was effusive with his China praise with COVID and over the past few years, Trump is an admitted pedo, Digging into Mueller stuff only reminds people he wasn't indicted because he's a sitting POTUS and no one is in the mood to be charitable to Trump, especially since Biden is pretty blameless vis-a-vis the virus. He can't trade blows with Biden on those topics.

This is what I see happening if either the economy doesn't improve, or there isn't much of a second COVID wave:

a) Biden maintains a 3-6% lead through summer.
b) Trump has his GOP convention and it is an utter shit-show of the most ludicrous campaign messenging with a combo of Beijing Biden/Obamagate stuff. He tries to pawn off responsibility for COVID. Doesn't give Trump a bounce. Trump really digs into senile Biden.
c) Democrat Convention follows: People start to buy some of the Senile Biden stuff, but then Biden gives a great, passionate, energetic speech. Biden's VP pick makes a great impression injects some energy with the women and younger folks presuming she isn't a bad choice.
d) Biden gets a 4-6% bounce.
e) Biden takes a 6-8% lead through the Fall and unless something drastic happens Trump loses roughly by 53%-45%. Record turnout, beats 2008. GOP wins in AL, but loses in AZ, MT, CO, KS, NC and ME. And probably one of KY, SC, IA and GA.

Of course, if the economy gets worse, like millions or foreclosures as bills come due after July when the CARES Act is done, etc., or if the Second Wave is catastrophically bad, Trump probably loses by 10%.

Trump can still win if Biden falls apart, the economy mostly recovers by October, or all kinds of women start coming out saying Biden raped them and turnout is low. Or the Russians heavily interfere but that could lead to some really ugly consequences.
6) Hunter Biden/Burisma
.
.

The Obama angle not likely to bear fruit.

 

prf100

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At this point I think the election comes down to a few basic things, as neither one is going to get a lot of support from the other side.

Turnout in the battle ground states. I think a lower turnout helps Republicans a ton in these states as most are already red, and if you have a lower turnout I feel it will be on the Democrat side. If you see record votes in the Midwest, game over for Trump on election night before the West Coast even closed the booths.

Economy: if we are able to see any kind of recovery, or atleast a recovery in the battle ground states, I think it helps Trump a lot. I think we are going to see even more push from the Red states to get the economy going at all cost, it will help keep them Red, and help Trump. In a state like MI. The battle ground states like MI with democrat governors are going to be pounded by ads saying how the governor not Trump failed them. This will go over great with Trump supporters and could get those in the middle to consider Trump, if they were in a good spot before this, and the blame is shifted to a democratic governor.

I still think the race is wide open, and Trump has a legit shot to win again. But the margin for error is very very small.

On a separate note. I wonder how the map is looking for the House. I feel that there could be a swing back to the Republicans this year. Based solely on the fact, blue states and states with democrat governors have had some of the most restrictive stay at home orders. I think this is going to open the door for Republicans in the contested areas to have a great message.
I see the things the same way. But I think turn out will be record breaking. 2020 will be the pissed off democrat version of 2016 being the pissed off Republican election.
 

Sebastian

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At this point I think the election comes down to a few basic things, as neither one is going to get a lot of support from the other side.

Turnout in the battle ground states. I think a lower turnout helps Republicans a ton in these states as most are already red, and if you have a lower turnout I feel it will be on the Democrat side. If you see record votes in the Midwest, game over for Trump on election night before the West Coast even closed the booths.

Economy: if we are able to see any kind of recovery, or atleast a recovery in the battle ground states, I think it helps Trump a lot. I think we are going to see even more push from the Red states to get the economy going at all cost, it will help keep them Red, and help Trump. In a state like MI. The battle ground states like MI with democrat governors are going to be pounded by ads saying how the governor not Trump failed them. This will go over great with Trump supporters and could get those in the middle to consider Trump, if they were in a good spot before this, and the blame is shifted to a democratic governor.

I still think the race is wide open, and Trump has a legit shot to win again. But the margin for error is very very small.

On a separate note. I wonder how the map is looking for the House. I feel that there could be a swing back to the Republicans this year. Based solely on the fact, blue states and states with democrat governors have had some of the most restrictive stay at home orders. I think this is going to open the door for Republicans in the contested areas to have a great message.
Re: The House.

For any demonstrative GOP victory turnout needs to be very low.

If the Presidential has high turnout it will filter down to the down-ballot races.

Moreover, the GOP lost most of its seats in the suburbs where Trump is not popular. It is unlikely they win back the House short of a very strong economic recovery or something big like that.
 

col63onel

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Any have any faith that the GOP will allow turnout? They are good at voter suppression even when there's not a pandemic. I can easily see them under funding blue areas in swing states to depress turnout.
 

prf100

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Any have any faith that the GOP will allow turnout? They are good at voter suppression even when there's not a pandemic. I can easily see them under funding blue areas in swing states to depress turnout.
I absolutely expect the GOP to do everything they can to depress turnout. They've been doing that for years now, and have simply stopped caring about how shitty it makes them look.
 

Sebastian

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Any have any faith that the GOP will allow turnout? They are good at voter suppression even when there's not a pandemic. I can easily see them under funding blue areas in swing states to depress turnout.
There are a lot of organizations out there making sure people are registered. And suppression tends to be heaviest in Red States anyway. It will likely mean GA is off the table for Biden.

However, the recent Wisconsin Primary demonstrated that despite outright suppression tactics like closing all the inner-city Milwaukee polling places, and only allowing three polling stations in a city of 400,000, and the pandemic, that people came out and voted in droves and sent a GOP State Supreme Court judge packing.

I think people will be willing to vote, no matter the cost or effort, in this election.
 

-Akronite-

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Is this the spot to talk Veep?

Klobuchar is getting vetted. Warren and Harris are still hot names that I'd personally prefer, but it seems like the momentum isn't there for Abrams.

I've seen some support here for a Klobe pick, do people think that's the best play electorally? She's a double down pick for the Midwest, which I can see the argument for, but on a national scale you're doing nothing to excite the base or encourage minority turnout. Probably won't be Palin bad but more likely a non-factor pick like Kaine.

We know Biden isn't in it for the long haul and the VP pick seems more weighty than usual elections. Picking Klobe as the symbol of the party's future seems like a decision that simply lacks vision. Maybe they're floating out Klobuchar so that progressives won't be as mad when he picks Harris. :chuckle:
 

Zeus69

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Is this the spot to talk Veep?

Klobuchar is getting vetted. Warren and Harris are still hot names that I'd personally prefer, but it seems like the momentum isn't there for Abrams.

I've seen some support here for a Klobe pick, do people think that's the best play electorally? She's a double down pick for the Midwest, which I can see the argument for, but on a national scale you're doing nothing to excite the base or encourage minority turnout. Probably won't be Palin bad but more likely a non-factor pick like Kaine.

We know Biden isn't in it for the long haul and the VP pick seems more weighty than usual elections. Picking Klobe as the symbol of the party's future seems like a decision that simply lacks vision. Maybe they're floating out Klobuchar so that progressives won't be as mad when he picks Harris. :chuckle:
I liked Klobuchar in the primaries, but this is going through the motions and she won’t be the pick. Tim Kaine 2.0.

Harris’s spot to lose.
 

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