2020 Series #11 Indians @ Cardinals, Aug. 28-30

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Cards are 11-11. They appear to be an average team and very similar to the Indians - great pitching, the hitting not so much. The Cardinals are 3rd in the majors in team ERA, right behind the Tribe. They're 24th in runs per game, just above the Tribe. This could be another very low scoring series similar to the games against the Twins.

However, the Tribe has one thing in their favor and that is the fact that the Cardinals had to take over two weeks off due to the virus. Since they resumed playing they have played 13 days without a day off, including four double-headers. In fact, they played a double-header last night, losing both games at home to the woeful Pirates and scoring 3 runs in 15 innings. These boys have got to be exhausted after playing 17 games in 13 days and having to get after it again tonight after 15 innings yesterday.

McKenzie goes tonight against right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon, who is 0-2, 5.75. In 12 innings of work he's given up 10 walks and 8 hits, so it pays to be patient at the plate. Opposing batters are hitting only .182, but the walks and home runs have hurt him. He's given up three HR's in three starts. The farthest he's pitched is 4.2 innings. If the Indians can work him for some walks and get a big hit early and also run up his pitch count and get to their middle relievers they should have a good chance to win.

Cookie goes against Jack Flaherty (2-0, 1.98) on Saturday afternoon. In his last start he shut out the Royals on one hit for five innings. He has a career 3.15 ERA and opposing batters are hitting .160 this season. Right-handed hitters are 3-for-21 against him and his home ERA is 1.50. This guy will be tough to score on. Hopefully Carrasco will be better than he's been his last three starts, but this game looks like it will be tough to win.

Civale goes against 38-year-old Adam Wainwright in the finale. Wainright has had a great career (164-95, 3.38), all with the Cardinals. Batters are hitting .198 off him this year. He's 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA. Another tough nut to crack. Runs are going to be difficult to find this weekend. Both teams may be playing small ball anticipating 2-1 or 3-2 games.

Former Tribesman Brad Miller, who left the team in a huff, is off to a great start at third base, hitting .318/1.015. Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .333/.985 at first base. Other than those two nobody has been all that impressive at the dish.

The Cardinals have seven pitchers on the injured list and having played 17 games in 13 days their bullpen may be a little overworked. They're averaging about 3.5 innings per game and Fangraphs has them ranked 21st in xFIP.

 

[sportscoach]

The Cards are 11-11. They appear to be an average team and very similar to the Indians - great pitching, the hitting not so much. The Cardinals are 3rd in the majors in team ERA, right behind the Tribe. They're 24th in runs per game, just above the Tribe. This could be another very low scoring series similar to the games against the Twins.

However, the Tribe has one thing in their favor and that is the fact that the Cardinals had to take over two weeks off due to the virus. Since they resumed playing they have played 13 days without a day off, including four double-headers. In fact, they played a double-header last night, losing both games at home to the woeful Pirates and scoring 3 runs in 15 innings. These boys have got to be exhausted after playing 17 games in 13 days and having to get after it again tonight after 15 innings yesterday.

McKenzie goes tonight against right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon, who is 0-2, 5.75. In 12 innings of work he's given up 10 walks and 8 hits, so it pays to be patient at the plate. Opposing batters are hitting only .182, but the walks and home runs have hurt him. He's given up three HR's in three starts. The farthest he's pitched is 4.2 innings. If the Indians can work him for some walks and get a big hit early and also run up his pitch count and get to their middle relievers they should have a good chance to win.

Cookie goes against Jack Flaherty (2-0, 1.98) on Saturday afternoon. In his last start he shut out the Royals on one hit for five innings. He has a career 3.15 ERA and opposing batters are hitting .160 this season. Right-handed hitters are 3-for-21 against him and his home ERA is 1.50. This guy will be tough to score on. Hopefully Carrasco will be better than he's been his last three starts, but this game looks like it will be tough to win.

Civale goes against 38-year-old Adam Wainwright in the finale. Wainright has had a great career (164-95, 3.38), all with the Cardinals. Batters are hitting .198 off him this year. He's 2-0 with a 2.88 ERA. Another tough nut to crack. Runs are going to be difficult to find this weekend. Both teams may be playing small ball anticipating 2-1 or 3-2 games.

Former Tribesman Brad Miller, who left the team in a huff, is off to a great start at third base, hitting .318/1.015. Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .333/.985 at first base. Other than those two nobody has been all that impressive at the dish.

The Cardinals have seven pitchers on the injured list and having played 17 games in 13 days their bullpen may be a little overworked. They're averaging about 3.5 innings per game and Fangraphs has them ranked 21st in xFIP.

Seems like the Indians need to keep working the counts and get to the bullpen ASAP. Now I believe they just gained a fresh arm (cause of Miller's DL stint) but otherwise let's put the pressure on their bullpen.

 

[CATS44]

one of the things propping up the Cards pitching numbers is a ridiculous BABIP of .203. The next lowest is .241 by the Dodgers . Ours is .277.

They rank 27th in K rate. Those two stats indicate that their pitching success so far has been a mirage, and due for significant regression.

But for a far different point of view...ten of their 22 games have come against the Cubs, White Sox, and Twins...three good offensive teams.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Good point about the Cardinals' incredibly low BABIP, however, Fangraphs ranks their defense 2nd in baseball behind the A's. The Indians are third.

So part of the reason for that low BABIP is because they play great defense. They're second in UZR/150 behind the Indians.

 

[Otsego Mar]

Good point about the Cardinals' incredibly low BABIP, however, Fangraphs ranks their defense 2nd in baseball behind the A's. The Indians are third.

So part of the reason for that low BABIP is because they play great defense. They're second in UZR/150 behind the Indians.

Care to explain UZR/150 & BABIP to us normies?

 

[Derek]

Care to explain UZR/150 & BABIP to us normies?

UZR/150 is an estimation of how many runs a defender is above or below average over the course of 150 games

BABIP is batting average on balls in play (so BA% minus HR and strikeouts pretty much)

Defensive metrics are very noisy, but BABIP is pretty useful. Since 2010, every team's pitching staff falls between .282 (Oakland - pitcher's park) and .309 (Colorado - hitter's park).

Obviously, there are many reasons for BABIP to be higher or lower than normal, but typically if you see someone performing outside a range of .270-.320, you can expect some regression to the mean at some point.

 

[LL3]

Care to explain UZR/150 & BABIP to us normies?

I will try to keep it relatively short/simplified, but you can obviously dive much deeper into it --

UZR puts a run value to defense and attempts to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding ability, involving Outfielder throws, double plays turned, actual fielding range, and errors...put those all together and you get a defensive score -- UZR. A good bit more in depth than just fielding percentage, which even Tom Hamilton must know is lame when he cites it on a broadcast. The "150" part signifies scaling for a season.

BABIP -- Batting average for balls in play. HR, K, Catcher's interference, HBP etc are not factored in. It probably has more to say more about pitchers (fielding, luck, etc., elements not in their control.) than hitters

 

[Otsego Mar]

UZR/150 is an estimation of how many runs a defender is above or below average over the course of 150 games

BABIP is batting average on balls in play (so BA% minus HR and strikeouts pretty much)

Defensive metrics are very noisy, but BABIP is pretty useful. Since 2010, every team's pitching staff falls between .282 (Oakland - pitcher's park) and .309 (Colorado - hitter's park).

Obviously, there are many reasons for BABIP to be higher or lower than normal, but typically if you see someone performing outside a range of .270-.320, you can expect some regression to the mean at some point.

Thank you. As you mention, I can see the usefulness of BABIP and I can understand it.

However, I'm having a hard time understanding how runs correlate with an individual's defense? Can you give an example or explain further?

EDIT - looks like LL3 gave some further info.

 

[LL3]

UZR/150 is an estimation of how many runs a defender is above or below average over the course of 150 games

BABIP is batting average on balls in play (so BA% minus HR and strikeouts pretty much)

Defensive metrics are very noisy, but BABIP is pretty useful. Since 2010, every team's pitching staff falls between .282 (Oakland - pitcher's park) and .309 (Colorado - hitter's park).

Obviously, there are many reasons for BABIP to be higher or lower than normal, but typically if you see someone performing outside a range of .270-.320, you can expect some regression to the mean at some point.

I'm a slow typist.

 

[CATS44]

I dont look at defensive metrics too much because of the wide variance between them.

But BABIP is useful as a measurement of luck, with some caveats. A batter who consistently hits line drives and hits them at a greater velocity will generally maintain a higher than normal BABIP. Choo is an example.

From a pitching standpoint limiting hitters ability to barrel up balls will lower BABIP. A better defense absolutely helps, also.

But the Cards number is far beyond sustainable. The lowest BABIP for a staff last year was .270. Numbers are down this year, but not nearly to that extent. Too be fair, though, the Cards staff had the fifth lowest BABIP last season at .284.

The lower the K rate means the more that BABIP comes into play...and the Cards staff doesn't strike out a ton of batters. They were below average last year, too.

 

[Andrew Scheid]

Are we sure the game is getting played tonight?

Considering that the NBA is scheduled to resume tomorrow, I'd imagine that the MLB will resume games moving forward.

 

[Gson]

Are we sure the game is getting played tonight?

Considering that the NBA is scheduled to resume tomorrow, I'd imagine that the MLB will resume games moving forward.

Two causes.. rain/thunderstorms are all in and around St Louis.. may mean a delay.. doubt enough there to shut the game down..

Protest.. probably not.. St Louis has so many double headers already.. they can't afford another..

 

[LL3]

 

[Phil Mixtape]

Great Lakes Oktoberfest just hit out here in Chicago. Cheers gentlemen . . .

 

[xmasbuck]

for te sake of humanity, we need to knock this pitcher out of here early