• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

2020 Series 3 | Indians @ Twins | July 30-31 & August 1-2

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
No, not yet...lots giving up on tonight’s game...including people in my living room
 
Franimal hitting lots of balls into the dirt early.

Dobnak in control.
 
Clevinger has given up five runs in the first inning in his first two starts. In the other nine innings so far he's given up one run.

Maybe he's having trouble finding a good rhythm in the first inning. It wasn't a problem last year; he had a .185 BAA the first time through the order.
 
Blow it up

source.gif
 
These Karinchak comps...
 
Again, you need to actually read people’s posts.

All that was ever said about Civale was that he wouldn’t be able to sustain last year’s success without figuring out how to miss more bats. That’s undeniable.

And yes, minor league track record does matter for young players! It’s not everything, but nobody said it was. You need to stop with the strawmen!
Actually, Jup said this about Civale:

"What they [his excellent numbers last year] are a result of - the league not having time to get a fix on what he does and how he does it. That simply won't be the case this year."

I didn't see anything about Civale having to miss more bats. Jup said Civale's success last year was not due to good pitches; it was due to unfamiliarity. Jup seemed to be saying that with the element of surprise no longer in his favor Civale will not be able to replicate his numbers from last year.

I simply asked why, if he throws the same pitches to the same batters this year, he won't have similar success. Jup responded by saying he could still be successful even without being a "mystery" to opposing hitters.

"So once a hitter knows you throw a CB or SL, doesn't necessarily mean he will be effective hitting them. But he is one step closer knowing what you do and how you do it than he was before there was a book on you. There are natural dynamics that make the pitches deceptive or hard to hit that will remain, it depends on how you deploy those dynamics that will determine the success rate with them...The biggest single change he made (relative to the bulk of his minor league career) was he started to throw his FB at the top of the zone. Changed the dynamics of how his entire arsenal worked. That made him very effective, and could continue to have him be effective as there are dynamics when you do that, that are not easy for hitters to ever combat."

So we seem to be in agreement that Civale could have a successful season this year, although Jup said it was an "open question" because of the small sample size. Maybe somebody else said something about needing to miss more bats, but I can't find it.

I also noticed that Jup said Civale made a significant change from his minor league strategy and it "changed the dynamics of how his entire arsenal worked. That made him very effective, and could continue to have him be effective..."

Which is why I don't put TOO much emphasis on minor league track records. Players make adjustments. Bieber said he made some adjustments and now he's missing more bats. I put the quote up. Civale made an adjustment and it seems to be working. Plesac worked with Clevinger in the off-season and now he's missing bats.

It's very simple. I put more weight on major league performance than minor league performance (aka his "track record"). I put more weight on how a player is performing now than how he performed in previous years, especially with young players that are not yet finished products. I don't think that's unreasonable. But others disagree. You, for example, said this:

"Even after this year, we’ll still know next to nothing about Civale and Plesac."

Maybe you're right, but sorry if I feel like I already know a little something about them, and after 10 more starts from each of them I might know something more. You think we don't know anything until a guy throws 300 innings in the bigs. OK, fine with me. I won't try to change your mind.

I believe that if a pitcher limits the opposition to two runs or less in 11 of his first 12 starts then there's something more than unfamiliarity going on. If that's what it was, this would be a pretty common occurance. In fact, it's never been done in franchise history. And what if he does the same thing this year? We'll still know "next to nothing"? Sorry, I can't accept that information you're giving me. Nothing personal.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-13: "Backup Bash Brothers"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:11: "Clipping Bucks."
Top