2020 Starting Pitching Discussion

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Tonedef75

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Fortunately we won’t have to wait too much longer to see if Bieber is up to the challenge of making in-season adjustments as his next start is against a good hitting Twins team that has already face him this year. He’ll be going up against Berríos again, who other then making 1 mistake to Frankie, also pitched a great game.

Now that I think about it, it could also see if the Tribe’s hitters have improved since then.

Not expressing an opinion on Biebs ability to achieve in the future, or change, or adjust. Just talking about what is happening right now.

Major league scouting report are put together certain ways and that leaves them susceptible to certain outcomes. What is happening for/with Biebs right now is one of them. Hitters work off historic tendencies, when the season is 5 starts old, that isn't very "historic" in baseball terms. So what the scouting reports are telling hitters, won't be as clear today as it will be a month from now. And that will change the dynamics of the matchup. Not saying Biebs won't be successful because of it, just saying the advantage he holds today by the change he made will start to evaporate as the season progresses further.
 

LL3

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So scouting reports are usually done off of some kind of heat map that tells hitters where pitchers use certain pitch types in what zones and counts. But it takes a long time to fill up an entire strike zone with enough data to give reliable heat maps.



Now I don't want to make this to complicated so 30 thousand foot view.

Left => all pitches Biebs has thrown in 2020,
Middle => RH only 2020,
Right => RH only 0-2 count 2020

So what seems like a large sample set 698, gets narrowed to 24 pitches when you are looking at a particular type hitter in a particular type count. And how do you generate a heat map off those 24 pitches. Even more so when you start looking by pitch type where you have 8 FBs, 10 SL and 6 CBs.

Point being, scouting reports tend to be broken into

Last YEAR,
Last THREE MONTHS,
Last 3 STARTS

for sample size purposes.

Hitters don't have time to watch film of every pitcher the way we watch on TV. So they get these scouting reports on paper, work from them and then see what is happening in the game itself. And the scouting reports are still back in 2019 as far as generating any reliable type heat maps.
Interesting -- thanks!
 

xmasbuck

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So scouting reports are usually done off of some kind of heat map that tells hitters where pitchers use certain pitch types in what zones and counts. But it takes a long time to fill up an entire strike zone with enough data to give reliable heat maps.



Now I don't want to make this to complicated so 30 thousand foot view.

Left => all pitches Biebs has thrown in 2020,
Middle => RH only 2020,
Right => RH only 0-2 count 2020

So what seems like a large sample set 698, gets narrowed to 24 pitches when you are looking at a particular type hitter in a particular type count. And how do you generate a heat map off those 24 pitches. Even more so when you start looking by pitch type where you have 8 FBs, 10 SL and 6 CBs.

Point being, scouting reports tend to be broken into

Last YEAR,
Last THREE MONTHS,
Last 3 STARTS

for sample size purposes.

Hitters don't have time to watch film of every pitcher the way we watch on TV. So they get these scouting reports on paper, work from them and then see what is happening in the game itself. And the scouting reports are still back in 2019 as far as generating any reliable type heat maps.
it would be kinda cool to know how many of those pitches biebs threw out of the zone on 0 and 2 counts, were swung at
 

sportscoach

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Well i am late towards the Plutko discussion, but I was going to say this, I dont think Plutko is super long for this organization just because of the fact we have much better talent in the minors. I would be surprised if he is on the 2021 roster just because of who needs to be protected in the Rule 5.

That being stated, I think the organization would benefit more this season by keeping him because we always need a long man/spot starter and he has shown he can do well in that role. We dont get to have guys pitching regularly in games in the minors so who we can call up is very limited so unless we get an overpay, moving Plutko will potentially hurt us more than help us.

Though personally I would love another Catcher that is upgraded over Leon and Beau, but I doubt we could get that for Plutko let alone merit the reason to upgrade that spot getting rid of a guy who has a legit role on the roster.
 

CATS44

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Will batters try to adjust to Biebers remodeled arsenal?

Sure

Just like they tried to adjust after his rookie season, when he relied primarily on spotting his fastball, and supplementing it with a slider/curve assortment.

That didn't work, as Biebs dropped the usage of his heater significantly, replacing it with higher usage of both breaking balls.

Batters came in, prepared for this new formula.

That didn't work, either.

Biebs has added a cutter, reduced the usage of his heater yet again...and his slider...and upped the usage of his curve somewhat. He has also improved his velocity.

Batters are always trying to adjust. Against elite pitchers, it often doesn't work.
 
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I think Bieber is at the point now where he has four or five pitches that he can throw to any location in any count. There's no way hitters can "adjust" to that like they can to a pitcher who relies on one or two pitches.

Take Karinchak, for example. Fastball or curve, that's about it. Fangraphs has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. What happens when batters start ignoring one pitch and just sitting on the other? No way his 17.1 K/9 rate can continue, right?
 

KluberSociety

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I think Bieber is at the point now where he has four or five pitches that he can throw to any location in any count. There's no way hitters can "adjust" to that like they can to a pitcher who relies on one or two pitches.

Take Karinchak, for example. Fastball or curve, that's about it. Fangraphs has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. What happens when batters start ignoring one pitch and just sitting on the other? No way his 17.1 K/9 rate can continue, right?
Relievers are generally able to get away with 2 pitches. The potentially greatest reliever of all time, Mariano Rivera, was essentially a one-pitch pitcher, throwing about 90% cutters. If you look at dominant closers in the last whatever years (even our best, Miller and Allen), there's probably way more one and two-pitch pitchers than there are three and four-pitch pitchers. Part of the reason why pitchers are groomed to be relievers is because they don't have that third and fourth pitch, but generally they don't need it because hitters just see them once and that's it. And over such a long season as a hitter do you think you are going to time up Karinchak because you saw him a month ago or even 2 days ago, in between 5 other pitchers?

With two great pitches, Karinchak has a surplus of stuff needed to be a lights-out closer. What is shaky is the command and I'm not an expert on mechanics but his motion looks scary for injury risk. Hopefully neither of these will be problems.
 

Obscured By Clouds

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I think Bieber is at the point now where he has four or five pitches that he can throw to any location in any count. There's no way hitters can "adjust" to that like they can to a pitcher who relies on one or two pitches.

Take Karinchak, for example. Fastball or curve, that's about it. Fangraphs has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. What happens when batters start ignoring one pitch and just sitting on the other? No way his 17.1 K/9 rate can continue, right?
Career 16.4 K/9 in the minors.

Like the post above stated, command is his issue. He will walk a ton, and currently is with a 4 BB/9. Career 5.5 BB/9 in the minors.
 
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Karinchak has been awesome. In 12 appearances he has given up only one earned run and that was in a 7-2 loss. As for the walks, he is spreading them out. In 7 of 12 games he did not walk a batter. In four games he walked one. In only one game has he walked two batters.

His walk rate is lower than in the minors and the swing-and-miss rate on his fastball is actually higher in the bigs. From Fangraphs:

According to Baseball Savant, only Cam Bedrosian and Walker Buehler have generated more perceived rise above average on fastballs this year. That movement, when combined with the extreme over-the-top arm angle the pitch is delivered from, makes it a nearly unhittable offering.
 

macbdog

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Career 16.4 K/9 in the minors.

Like the post above stated, command is his issue. He will walk a ton, and currently is with a 4 BB/9. Career 5.5 BB/9 in the minors.
It's possible, that straight as an arrow fastball is something that bigleague hitters, after a good look, learn to time up and crush. However I'm not sure if there is some deception going on there with his delivery which could help (Rafael Betancourt had the same straight speedball but his varied pause threw hitters off) which could help. And hes almost 50/50 fastball/curve, so it's not like he is over reliant on the fastball. Honestly my biggest concerns with him are: his mentation (seems high strung) and violent delivery (feel free to direct me to the Science behind his mechanics), making him either never have good command or be injury prone. Just strikes me as the type who one day will just lose it and develop Wohleritis. Edit: is Karinchak using a modified Mike Marshall delivery with his over the top motion?
 
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Derek

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6x through the rotation (plus Bieber's 7th)
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1598448850762.png

For the most part, everybody's raw numbers align with their peripherals.

McKenzie, in his debut, worked within the strike zone more than any pitcher not named Plutko. His contact% in the zone is significantly lower than every other staff member, so it will be interesting to see if he can continue this trend due to his electric stuff, or if he'll learn to work off the plate a bit more as scouting catches up.
 
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