2020 Starting Pitching Discussion

[petes999]

It be nice if they would have a list somewhere for projections. We will have 30 to start off with anyways, so it won't be to hard to project things.

If you missed it ...

https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/final-predictions-for-the-cleveland-indians-30-man-roster/95-614d521f-1803-491b-b9d8-1a0caa80b695

As for pitchers, I think it is easy ...
Bieber, Clevinger, Cookie
Civale (heard he has had the best camp)
Pleasac (he went a good 4 innings out of 5 at Pitt ... think this says he is ahead of Plutko -- by going to there)

There are 17 straight games to start season, so you need a 5-man rotation. I don't see 6-man as you skip a start for Beiber. And, if you want to get pitch count up to get to 6-7 innings, does adding an extra day really help that much? This is a sprint finish, not a marathon. Plutko, can do a 2-3 inning piggy back every other day or so type thing to avoid taxing pen. Yet, two-three additional relievers (going from 12-13 to 15 pitchers) will help with starters who are not fully stretched out.

Relievers
Hand, Wittgren, Karinchak, Cimber, Perez then combo of
Hoyt, Wood, Maton, Leone and if one is dropped Hill (don't see him added till they go through the other options first).

Catchers (2) -- Leon and Perez
Infielders (6) -- Lindor, Jose, Carlos, Hernandez ... plus 2 of Chang, Arroyo and Freeman ... (tough choice)
Outfielders (7) -- Reyes, Domingo, Naquin, Mercado and a choice of 3 -- Bauers, Zimmer, Allen, Luplow (DL to start?), DeShields (DL to start?), Johnson (will be shipped out)

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

If you missed it ...

https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/final-predictions-for-the-cleveland-indians-30-man-roster/95-614d521f-1803-491b-b9d8-1a0caa80b695

As for pitchers, I think it is easy ...
Bieber, Clevinger, Cookie
Civale (heard he has had the best camp)
Pleasac (he went a good 4 innings out of 5 at Pitt ... think this says he is ahead of Plutko -- by going to there)

There are 17 straight games to start season, so you need a 5-man rotation. I don't see 6-man as you skip a start for Beiber. And, if you want to get pitch count up to get to 6-7 innings, does adding an extra day really help that much? This is a sprint finish, not a marathon. Plutko, can do a 2-3 inning piggy back every other day or so type thing to avoid taxing pen. Yet, two-three additional relievers (going from 12-13 to 15 pitchers) will help with starters who are not fully stretched out.

Relievers
Hand, Wittgren, Karinchak, Cimber, Perez then combo of
Hoyt, Wood, Maton, Leone and if one is dropped Hill (don't see him added till they go through the other options first).

Catchers (2) -- Leon and Perez
Infielders (6) -- Lindor, Jose, Carlos, Hernandez ... plus 2 of Chang, Arroyo and Freeman ... (tough choice)
Outfielders (7) -- Reyes, Domingo, Naquin, Mercado and a choice of 3 -- Bauers, Zimmer, Allen, Luplow (DL to start?), DeShields (DL to start?), Johnson (will be shipped out)

Johnson has already been shipped out, Bauers is awful, and DeShields is on the 10-day and even when he comes off he hasn't faced live pitching since March. That leaves Zimmer, Allen, and Luplow in addition to the four you named.

By the way, Tito said Reyes will be a DH, not a right fielder. He missed some time due to being quarantined after not wearing a mask to a party and then he tweaked something on a bad slide, so he hasn't had the chance to play in the outfield. That means D. Santana will be out there if they want his bat in the lineup and he was rated as the second worst defensive outfielder in baseball last year.

Get ready for a return of the Shelly Duncan shit show. At least this guy hits a lot better than Shelly.

 

[petes999]

Johnson has already been shipped out, Bauers is awful, and DeShields is on the 10-day and even when he comes off he hasn't faced live pitching since March. That leaves Zimmer, Allen, and Luplow in addition to the four you named.

By the way, Tito said Reyes will be a DH, not a right fielder. He missed some time due to being quarantined after not wearing a mask to a party and then he tweaked something on a bad slide, so he hasn't had the chance to play in the outfield. That means D. Santana will be out there if they want his bat in the lineup and he was rated as the second worst defensive outfielder in baseball last year.

Get ready for a return of the Shelly Duncan shit show. At least this guy hits a lot better than Shelly.

Only saving grace for Bauer’s is that he can play first to give Carlos a rest. Other than Freeman, can anyone else fill in?

 

[AZ_]

 

[Derek]

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Opposing hitters were 9-for-22 (.409) against Plutko in relief last year. Really small sample, though. However, as a starter it's not like he was any better the first time through the order as he was the next two times. I can't say I think this is going to work but it's better than having him start.

 

[MadThinker88]

Actually I could see any of Antonetti, Chernoff or Tito saying the above regarding the pitchers for the rotation.
Mandy Bell, the rest of the reporters and the all of us are sitting in 'Ryan's' place at the table..

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Fangraphs has ranked the starting pitching staffs going into the season. The Indians are 8th, just behind the Reds in 7th. We don't play any of the top six during the regular season.

They think the Reds rotation is the best they've had since the late 50s or early 60s. And guess who they project to pitch the most innings? Yep, Trevor Bauer.

What the hell are they thinking?

They have Bauer, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo with ERA's between 3.79 and 3.95. No aces on that staff, just three interchangeable parts. The last two starters, Miley and DeSclafani, are projected at 4.60 and 4.79.

How this equates to the 7th best rotation in baseball is beyond me.

They have a big problem with Aaron Civale because he didn't strike out a lot of batters in the minors so he's not projected to have any success up here, so they can't explain last season. Their computers don't know what to make of him.

The Twins are 10th. Four of their five starters are projected to have ERAs between 4.17 and 4.50 and Homer Bailey is at 5.11. I suppose in these days of higher launch angles and aerodynamic baseballs a 4.50 ERA is considered pretty good for a starter. Rich Hill is projected to have the best ERA and FIP on the staff and he's 40 years old.

2020 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (No. 1-15)

The best rotations in baseball are studded with stars, and showcase the importance of depth.

blogs.fangraphs.com

 

[jup]

Fangraphs has ranked the starting pitching staffs going into the season. The Indians are 8th, just behind the Reds in 7th. We don't play any of the top six during the regular season.

They think the Reds rotation is the best they've had since the late 50s or early 60s. And guess who they project to pitch the most innings? Yep, Trevor Bauer.

What the hell are they thinking?

They have Bauer, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo with ERA's between 3.79 and 3.95. No aces on that staff, just three interchangeable parts. The last two starters, Miley and DeSclafani, are projected at 4.60 and 4.79.

How this equates to the 7th best rotation in baseball is beyond me.

They have a big problem with Aaron Civale because he didn't strike out a lot of batters in the minors so he's not projected to have any success up here, so they can't explain last season. Their computers don't know what to make of him.

The Twins are 10th. Four of their five starters are projected to have ERAs between 4.17 and 4.50 and Homer Bailey is at 5.11. I suppose in these days of higher launch angles and aerodynamic baseballs a 4.50 ERA is considered pretty good for a starter. Rich Hill is projected to have the best ERA and FIP on the staff and he's 40 years old.

2020 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (No. 1-15)

The best rotations in baseball are studded with stars, and showcase the importance of depth.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Your wrong about the Reds - that is a swing and miss bunch over there - DeScafani included. Miley is the only guy which won't rack up the K's. Watch for that rotation to be at the top in the league in K's

And on the pitching front - K's is the single biggest predictor of success at the ML level. So when you start discounting K's in favor of ERA, you are missing the boat.

 

[jup]

Fangraphs has ranked the starting pitching staffs going into the season. The Indians are 8th, just behind the Reds in 7th. We don't play any of the top six during the regular season.

They think the Reds rotation is the best they've had since the late 50s or early 60s. And guess who they project to pitch the most innings? Yep, Trevor Bauer.

What the hell are they thinking?

They have Bauer, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo with ERA's between 3.79 and 3.95. No aces on that staff, just three interchangeable parts. The last two starters, Miley and DeSclafani, are projected at 4.60 and 4.79.

How this equates to the 7th best rotation in baseball is beyond me.

They have a big problem with Aaron Civale because he didn't strike out a lot of batters in the minors so he's not projected to have any success up here, so they can't explain last season. Their computers don't know what to make of him.

The Twins are 10th. Four of their five starters are projected to have ERAs between 4.17 and 4.50 and Homer Bailey is at 5.11. I suppose in these days of higher launch angles and aerodynamic baseballs a 4.50 ERA is considered pretty good for a starter. Rich Hill is projected to have the best ERA and FIP on the staff and he's 40 years old.

2020 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (No. 1-15)

The best rotations in baseball are studded with stars, and showcase the importance of depth.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Cleveland fans tend to over value their players, so sometimes it is hard for them to deal with projections made by groups that do not have that particular bias.

Guys like Plutko & Civale don't inspire a lot of confidence on the larger stage because they do not have the raw skills that are associated with swing and miss. And in the pitching market, the premium outcome is not allowing the ball to ever be put in play - no chance of a hit or an error - no chance of a runner period. And that is the most assured way to keep the other team from scoring.

 

[jup]

I wonder how Clevinger takes to Biebs being opening day guy. That has got to sting a little bit.

 

[LL3]

I have no real issue with the Cleveland ranking...being a little under the radar is just fine. The only thing that really matters is how many games can they win... I like the Tribe’s chances in this short season. We’ll see how it goes very soon.

 

[LL3]

I wonder how Clevinger takes to Biebs being opening day guy. That has got to sting a little bit.

You may or may not know when it comes to Clev, but is there not some respect for the guy who was the horse last season while others were injured or less effective?

 

[jup]

You may or may not know when it comes to Clev, but is there not some respect for the guy who was the horse last season while others were injured or less effective?

Among pitchers there clearly is - respect.

And I am not sure in Clev's case. So maybe it is just fine. That is why I say I wonder. But on the other hand he really is the heir apparent after the departure of Kluber, Bauer and Cookie's illness. So that is why I say it probably has to sting a little bit. Don't know Clevinger well enough to really have an infiormed opinion.

Adam Plutko I know. And fairly well. Although he will be happy he made the team (not traded or DFA'd), and he is a real team guy, there will clearly be some disappointment in the fact he wasn't included in the rotation. But you will never hear a peep from him.

Cookie (and that great smile) is just happy to be back. Got a chance to talk with him before the virus ... That guy is so uplifting to be around. Great jest for life.

Wonder how Kluber will fit in down in TX - guy is damn stoic, very hard to get to know. Not sure many guys in Cleveland really did ever know him. First time out of the environment he became very comfortable in and was very protective of. Will be interesting to hear what emerges.

Bauer seems to be fine going third over in Cincy. But that isn't surprising, he never has been worried about being the "spotlight guy" in the rotation. The word is he feels the other guys performed better and are deserving. That guy is all about winning, he just loves to compete one hitter at a time for as long as they will leave him out there.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Cleveland fans tend to over value their players, so sometimes it is hard for them to deal with projections made by groups that do not have that particular bias.

Guys like Plutko & Civale don't inspire a lot of confidence on the larger stage because they do not have the raw skills that are associated with swing and miss. And in the pitching market, the premium outcome is not allowing the ball to ever be put in play - no chance of a hit or an error - no chance of a runner period. And that is the most assured way to keep the other team from scoring.

I'm trying not to overvalue our players and I agree it happens.

However, on a team like the Indians I think the swing-and-miss thing is a little overrated simply because the defense looks to be very good, especially if they go with an outfield of Mercado, Naquin, and Zimmer/Luplow. DeShields will be available in the late innings. It will be very hard for hitters to get a bloop to fall in or to hit a ball in the gap that doesn't get cut off.

The infield will be above average defensively and there's no better catcher than Berto. This should be a team that turns batted balls into outs better than most, maybe all. For example, Civale's ERA was 2.34 last year; his FIP was 3.40. He clearly benefitted from the defense.

Besides, his K/9 in Columbus last year was 9.78 followed up with a 7.18 in Cleveland. Not that bad.