• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

2020 Starting Pitching Discussion

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
From The Athletic:

The latest FanGraphs projections have 17 teams lined up to win between 30 and 33 games this season. Right. Seventeen! For those of us who have always dreamed of, say, a six-team tiebreaker to decide the last wild-card spot, who says dreams never come true?

I mentioned this projection to an executive of a team that fought bullpen-meltdown issues for much of last season. He had to go hunt for some Advil immediately.

“If you’re kicking away games in the eighth inning every night this year,” he said, “oh my god. That’s gonna hurt.”

An AL exec had the same thought.

“Say your closer has a bad week,” he said. “They all have one. He gives up a bomb one night. He can’t find the plate the next night. There’s a bad break —somebody doesn’t make a play — the next night. Is somebody going to get demoted out of the ninth inning based on three games? That’ll definitely happen, because it won’t feel like three games. It will feel like 10 games.”

“But now the value of ‘every day’ is amplified by almost three. So I think you’re going to see some wild emotional swings in some of these front offices. It’s going to be very weird and very strange.”

(By the way, of those 17 teams projected to win 30-33 games three are in the AL Central and four are in the NL Central. If Fangraphs is right there won't be much separation at all between seven of the ten teams in those divisions. Should be a lot of games between evenly matched teams with every game's importance multiplied by a factor of 2.7. This season is going to be intense from start to finish. The last few weeks will be insane.)
 
Indians Set Rotation

By Jeff Todd | July 22, 2020 at 8:49am CDT

The Indians have set their rotation to open the 2020 season, manager Terry Francona told reporters including MLB.com’s Mandy Bell (Twitter link). Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac have made the five-man unit.
That decision leaves righty Adam Plutko on the outside looking in. He’ll jump into the relief unit to begin the season. With the short run-up to the season, there ought to be plenty of frames to go around.
The 28-year-old Plutko made twenty starts for the Indians last year, working to a 4.86 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. He had a lot of ground to make up to catch the other two hurlers.
Both Civale and Plesac are 25-year-old righties who debuted with aplomb in 2019. The former limited opponents to 2.34 earned per nine in his first ten starts. The latter posted a 3.81 ERA in 115 2/3 frames.
In both cases, there’s some cause to question the repeatability of the output. Civale benefited from a .250 BABIP-against, though Statcast suggests he has a real skill for inducing soft contact — related, no doubt, to his exceptional spin rates. Plesac’s own .255 BABIP-against doesn’t seem quite as sustainable. Opposing hitters produced a .315 wOBA against him last year, but Statcast spit out a far-less-promising .343 xwOBA based upon the quality of contact.
 
Cleveland fans tend to over value their players, so sometimes it is hard for them to deal with projections made by groups that do not have that particular bias.

Guys like Plutko & Civale don't inspire a lot of confidence on the larger stage because they do not have the raw skills that are associated with swing and miss. And in the pitching market, the premium outcome is not allowing the ball to ever be put in play - no chance of a hit or an error - no chance of a runner period. And that is the most assured way to keep the other team from scoring.
I think just about every fan base over estimates their guys. I am not sure how guys like Civale and especially Plutko could inspire confidence in any situation...where there could be optimism, especially for Civale, there is nothing there yet to suggest long term success. I hope they both do well, of course, but it is hard to bank on it.
 
I think just about every fan base over estimates their guys. I am not sure how guys like Civale and especially Plutko could inspire confidence in any situation...where there could be optimism, especially for Civale, there is nothing there yet to suggest long term success. I hope they both do well, of course, but it is hard to bank on it.

Civale, actually increased his velocity last season and so did Plesac. I have a bigger question mark about Plesac over Civale from watching them pitch. Civale has much better control over his off speed pitches and like I mentioned earlier, with his increased velocity in his fastball, they become more effective. Civale has a legit chance to become a Kluber, the guy who knows how to pitch, but doesn't hit 99. Kluber was only hitting 93 on his fastball when he won the Cy Young.

Civale keeps his pitches off of the barrel of the bat, plus he has one of the better spins in the league. I am not worried about him. I am worried about Plesac developing his off speed and keeping himself under control since he gets out of control sometimes
 
  • Like
Reactions: LL3
Civale, actually increased his velocity last season and so did Plesac. I have a bigger question mark about Plesac over Civale from watching them pitch. Civale has much better control over his off speed pitches and like I mentioned earlier, with his increased velocity in his fastball, they become more effective. Civale has a legit chance to become a Kluber, the guy who knows how to pitch, but doesn't hit 99. Kluber was only hitting 93 on his fastball when he won the Cy Young.

Civale keeps his pitches off of the barrel of the bat, plus he has one of the better spins in the league. I am not worried about him. I am worried about Plesac developing his off speed and keeping himself under control since he gets out of control sometimes
Good point. Civale's fastball averaged 92.2 last year per Fangraphs. Kluber averaged 92.4 in 2018, the year he won 20 games.

What is concerning is Civale's xFIP last year was 4.61 while his ERA was 2.34. He was helped by two things; the Indians' defense (he's not a big strikeout guy) and the fact that his HR/FB percentage was 6.6%. The xFIP number is calculated based on a HR/FB percentage of 10.5%, which I assume is average.

The big question is whether last year was a fluke or if Civale can continue to prevent fly balls from leaving the yard at a rate well below average. Kluber's HR/FB rate in 2018 was 9.8%. His xFIP was 3.08.

Last year Civale allowed 0.6 HR's per 9 innings, lowest on the Indians. Clevinger was next at 0.7. Civale was tied for 12th best in baseball among pitchers with more than 50 innings. A small sample, but if he can keep the ball in the yard with this defense he could be on his way to being a successful starter. So far he seems to be in the Kluber/Bieber mold.
 
Over the last decade, only one pitcher with over 500 IP has had a HR/FB% under 8.2% and that was Chad Billingsley at 6.8%. Only four guys were below 9%!

So, even if you think Civale is going to be elite at keeping the ball in the park, he's still likely to settle around 9.2-9.4% range which is where Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, Zito, and Verlander are.

As far as BABIP goes, Civale was at .250 last year. Under the same criteria mentioned above, nobody even sniffed that low of a BABIP. Marco Estrada was the lowest at .263, but only a handful of guys were even under .270 (including Kershaw at .267). If you believe Civale is really good at limiting hard contact, it's still likely he takes a significant jump from .250 to probably something in the .275-.280 range, if not higher.

Much like with Plesac, he's going to have to start missing a lot more bats if he wants to be a high-level pitcher, and not just a back-end guy/spot starter.

Civale produced an 8.8% swing and miss rate last year. That would have ranked him 51 out of 61 qualified starters last year. Even pitch to contact guys like Wade Miley and Miles Mikolas managed swing and miss rates of 9.3% and 9.6%, respectively.

For reference, here are Plesac's numbers in the same categories:
HR/FB%: 14.5% (above average, but within the expected range)
BABIP: .255 (absurdly low, just like Civale)
Whiff%: 9.5% (below league average)

 
Last edited:
Over the last decade, only one pitcher with over 500 IP has had a HR/FB% under 8.2% and that was Chad Billingsley at 6.8%. Only four guys were below 9%!

So, even if you think Civale is going to be elite at keeping the ball in the park, he's still likely to settle around 9.2-9.4% range which is where Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, Zito, and Verlander are.

As far as BABIP goes, Civale was at .250 last year. Under the same criteria mentioned above, nobody even sniffed that low of a BABIP. Marco Estrada was the lowest at .263, but only a handful of guys were even under .270 (including Kershaw at .267). If you believe Civale is really good at limiting hard contact, it's still likely he takes a significant jump from .250 to probably something in the .275-.280 range, if not higher.

Much like with Plesac, he's going to have to start missing a lot more bats if he wants to be a high-level pitcher, and not just a back-end guy/spot starter.

Civale produced an 8.8% swing and miss rate last year. That would have ranked him 51 out of 61 qualified starters last year. Even pitch to contact guys like Wade Miley and Miles Mikolas managed swing and miss rates of 9.3% and 9.6%, respectively.

For reference, here are Plesac's numbers int he same categories:
HR/FB%: 14.5% (above average, but within the expected range)
BABIP: .255 (absurdly low, just like Civale)
Whiff%: 9.5% (below league average)

Great numbers. It would seem impossible for Civale to come close to replicating last season's numbers, especially the home runs. He only allowed two home runs in his first 54 innings before the White Sox got him twice in his final start. Insane numbers.

Still, he pitched 17 innings against the Twins and Yankees, who both hit more home runs than any previous team in major league history. Civale gave up one home run in 17 innings to the best home run hitting teams of all time. Was that just luck?

I suppose it was, or we have a pitcher the likes of which has not been seen before in major league baseball. I guess we'll find out soon. He faces the White Sox on Monday and the Twins in nine days.
 
Great numbers. It would seem impossible for Civale to come close to replicating last season's numbers, especially the home runs. He only allowed two home runs in his first 54 innings before the White Sox got him twice in his final start. Insane numbers.

Still, he pitched 17 innings against the Twins and Yankees, who both hit more home runs than any previous team in major league history. Civale gave up one home run in 17 innings to the best home run hitting teams of all time. Was that just luck?

I suppose it was, or we have a pitcher the likes of which has not been seen before in major league baseball. I guess we'll find out soon. He faces the White Sox on Monday and the Twins in nine days.
Across 17 innings, no, I wouldn't call it luck. He pitched great. Numbers not being sustainable don't necessarily mean it was all luck. It's simply variation within a small sample size. If a guy gives up 1 HR/9 innings, you don't expect him to give up exactly 1 HR every 9 innings like clockwork. Sometimes he'll give up 0 and other times he'll give up more.

If Franmil hits 5 HR in a weekend series and absolutely tattoos each ball, he wasn't lucky, it's just not a sustainable level of play.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LL3
Since he's been mentioned a few times as a mold for Civale, here are Kluber's numbers from 2011-13 (pre-breakout):

Whiff%: 10.7%
BABIP: .335
HR/FB: 12.5%

He pitched in 41 games (36 starts) over that span with 214.2 IP
4.32 ERA
8.18 K/9
2.26 BB/9
 
Looking at the Fangraphs BABIP+ for Indians pitchers, Civale and Plesac are the lowest at 84 and 86, respectively. That’s 14-16% below league average, if I understand this correctly. Plutko is next at 91 followed by Bauer and Bieber at 95 and 99 (2019 numbers).

The only Indians pitchers above average were Clevinger (103), Carrasco (119) and Kluber (124).

So what to make of this? What doesn’t make sense to me is that Civale and Carrasco both gave up line drives at slightly above league average rate (104). Civale got a few more ground balls (96-93) while Carlos put it in the air a little more (106-103). They should have similar BABIP numbers unless I’m missing something.

Plesac, whose BABIP was almost as low as Civale’s, actually had a higher line drive percentage than Carrasco (106-104) and his fly ball and ground ball percentages were identical. So how can his BABIP+ number be 33 points lower?

The only obvious answer is that Civale and Plesac had once in a generation type of luck last year in balls being hit right at someone. But so did Tyler Clippard whose BABIP+ was well below Civale’s at 68. Clippard’s secret seems to be making batters hit it in the air; his FB%+ was 148 while his GB%+ was 79. He was the most extreme fly ball pitcher on the staff last year.

Nick Goody had the second lowest BABIP+ at 82, also lower than Civale and Plesac. HIs FB%+ was 146, just a shade behind Clippard. Maybe the secret is getting batters to hit the ball in the air but keep it in the park. It sure worked for Clippard and Goody last year. With an outfield of Mercado, Naquin, and Zimmer or Luplow plus DeShields in the late innings it will be tough for hitters to find some grass.

Brad Hand’s LD%+ was an astonishing 147 last year, 37 points higher than the next worst reliever on the team. No surprise - his BABIP+ was the highest on the team at 121. Hand needs to bring that line drive percentage down. However, his K%+ was 153. He made up for it with a lot of K’s. He got tons of swings-and-misses but allowed way too many barreled balls. Odd combination.
 
Last edited:
Since he's been mentioned a few times as a mold for Civale, here are Kluber's numbers from 2011-13 (pre-breakout):

Whiff%: 10.7%
BABIP: .335
HR/FB: 12.5%

He pitched in 41 games (36 starts) over that span with 214.2 IP
4.32 ERA
8.18 K/9
2.26 BB/9
If Civale pitches 160 innings this year that will bring him up to the same number of innings you cited for Kluber and we'll really have a good comparison, especially since they started their major league careers at the same age. As for now, Civale strikes out fewer hitters (10.7% vs. 7.8%) but gives up fewer home runs (6.6% vs. 12.5% HR/FB). Neither guy walks anybody.

My comparison is Civale and Charles Nagy. Both are right-handed, rely on poinpoint command and mixing pitches, and are from Connecticut. What else do you want?

Nagy was 17-10 at age 25 after 41 mostly unimpressive starts his first two years where he went 12-19. In his third year he made the All-Star team. He was similar to Civale in that his home run number was absurdly low (0.39 per 9 innings; Civale was at 0.62 last year) and his K/9 rate was also low (6.0, lower than Civale's 7.18).

Nagy's formula was to keep the ball on the ground and pitch for a team that scored like crazy. Civale doesn't have Lofton, Manny, Belle, Thome etc any more but he should get more run support than last year when the Indians scored a total of five runs in the five Civale starts that were losses.
 
Last edited:
Great numbers. It would seem impossible for Civale to come close to replicating last season's numbers, especially the home runs. He only allowed two home runs in his first 54 innings before the White Sox got him twice in his final start. Insane numbers.

Still, he pitched 17 innings against the Twins and Yankees, who both hit more home runs than any previous team in major league history. Civale gave up one home run in 17 innings to the best home run hitting teams of all time. Was that just luck?

I suppose it was, or we have a pitcher the likes of which has not been seen before in major league baseball. I guess we'll find out soon. He faces the White Sox on Monday and the Twins in nine days.
What they are a result of - the league not having time to get a fix on what he does and how he does it. That simply won't be the case this year.
 
If Civale pitches 160 innings this year that will bring him up to the same number of innings you cited for Kluber and we'll really have a good comparison, especially since they started their major league careers at the same age. As for now, Civale strikes out fewer hitters (10.7% vs. 7.8%) but gives up fewer home runs (6.6% vs. 12.5% HR/FB). Neither guy walks anybody.

My comparison is Civale and Charles Nagy. Both are right-handed, rely on poinpoint command and mixing pitches, and are from Connecticut. What else do you want?

Nagy was 17-10 at age 25 after 41 mostly starts his first two years where he went 12-19. In his third year he made the All-Star team. He was similar to Civale in that his home run number was absurdly low (0.4 per 9 innings; Civale was at 1.1 last year) and his K9 rate was also low (6.0, lower than Civale).

As I recall, Nagy was more of a sinker ball guy who kept the ball on the ground. In his 14-year career he averaged 1.0 HR/9, even lower than Civale last year, so it's doable.

Nagy's formula was to keep the ball on the ground and pitch for a team that scored like crazy. Civale doesn't have Lofton, Manny, Belle, Thome etc any more but he should get more run support than last year when the Indians scored a total of five runs in the five Civale starts that were losses.
It's nearly impossible to compare pitchers now to the ones in the 90's.

For example, you point to Nagy's low K/9, but he was typically in the top third of the league during his better years. In 1995, his 7.03 K/9 ranked 19th of 75 qualified starters. In 2019 that same figure would rank him in the bottom 10 starters in the league. The 19th ranked pitcher in 2019 was Aaron Nola with 10.19 K/9.

Nagy's value in the 90's was fairly similar to MadBum's in the 10's. So, it's not entirely accurate to paint him as somebody relying on run support to be successful.

Civale is Civale, he'll create his own mold. We know what he has in his arsenal, and we know the improvements he needs to make to stick in the majors. Now we just have to wait and see if he actually does it.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, back then there was more value placed on putting the ball in play. No launch angle revolution yet. It will be interesting to follow Civale's season particulary with respect to his HR/FB rate and K rate. And BABIP, of course. If he can continue to keep the ball in the park at a well above average rate he should win a lot of games if the Tribe's offense and defense is as good as I expect it to be. Even without being in the upper half in K rate.
 
Even after this year, we’ll still know next to nothing about Civale and Plesac. They’ll barely have 100 career innings under their belt which is far lower than the threshold for the stabilization of most pitching statistics.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-13: "Backup Bash Brothers"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:11: "Clipping Bucks."
Top