2020 Starting Pitching Discussion

[jup]

I was responding to Jup's statement about Civale's success being due to "the league not having time to get a fix on what he does and how he does it. That simply won't be the case this year."

IOW, Civale's success last year was due not to his pitching ability but batters simply being unfamiliar with "what he does and how he does it". I responded by saying that wasn't the case for Kluber or Nagy. They didn't get worse their second or third years as hitters saw more of them, they got better.

The difference is Civale was better as a rookie than Kluber or Nagy. Is it possible he's already developed the pitches he needs?

Both you and Jup agree that if Civale and Plesac pitch at exactly the same level as last year they will have worse results. You said neither of them will be "effective without substantial improvement in key areas". Not minor improvements - "substantial" improvements. You both seem to agree that neither of them was anywhere near as good as their 2019 numbers indicate and if they trot out the same crap they threw last year it won't be pretty. Well, maybe that's an exaggeration - sorry.

But then you said Civale pitched "great" in 17 innings against the Twins and Yankees where he only allowed one home run. If he pitched great against the two best offenses in baseball last year and probably in many years, why wouldn't those same pitches work this year? Why would he need "substantial" improvement?

In Civale's first nine starts he allowed 11 earned runs and three of those starts were against the Yankees and Twins, the highest scoring teams in the majors. If he throws the same stuff this year you’re saying he won’t be effective? Why not?

You’re also saying that if he throws another 60-70 innings this year with the same results as last year we’ll still know “next to nothing” about whether he has a succesful future in the bigs. If he limits the opponents to two earned runs or less in 18 of his first 20 starts we'll still know "next to nothing"?

Under that logic if a pitcher had an ERA of 6.60 after his first 20 starts we should just keep trotting him out there until he gets to 300 innings, then start tracking his progress. We don't know anything until the numbers stabilize, right?.

I prefer to look at what the guy is throwing. Here’s a quote from a Justin Lada column:

“What Civale does well is spin the fastball (2268 - 85th percentile), which helps his 93 mph fastball play up. He did touch 95 at times, something we didn’t see in the minors from him. His curveball spin is in the 96th percentile and gets 12% better than league average on his vertical drop on it. He limited hard contact well, finishing with a 2.4% barrel rate, the top 1% of the league [in 2019]...It’s a mid-rotation type arsenal just lacking above average velocity.”

I guess we’ll see if he’s improved his pitches this year and if the league smacks him around if he doesn’t.

Civale did a very good job of using tunnels with his arsenal to be effective. The biggest single change he made (relative to the bulk of his minor league career) was he started to throw his FB at the top of the zone. Changed the dynamics of how his entire arsenal worked. That made him very effective, and could continue to have him be effective as there are dynamics when you do that, that are not easy for hitters to ever combat. So his strategy was his best asset last year. I am sure he will deploy a very similar one this year as it is a change he made coming to the big leagues based on work with Carl after he watched it play out on the big league staff for a few years before Civale's assent.

Now how effective that strategy will work (in his particular case) once hitters are aware of what he does, is still an open question because of his short stint at the big league level.

His arsenal is setup much like Bauer's, and one of the key pitches in it is his cutter. How he handles his cutter/ FB mix and zone placement will go a long way in determining the success of his strategy going forward.

 

[jup]

Does this suppose that great pitchers from other eras would not take advantage of modern techniques, conditioning, nutrition, etc? Is the concept that they were not physically equiped?

Edit: would they be unable to generate more spin and/or throw harderif they were born in this era?

Nope, great pitchers would probably be great today because they would probably be in on the latest and best techniques. But what it does say, is that trying to compare yester-year pitchers, not changing the way they went about things, to todays pitchers is a farce. They simply could not compete in todays game. At least not at the level they did during their era.

And what has changed is the way pitchers prepare and the knowledge base they use to pitch with. And those training techniques and deployment of metrics, analytics and technology is new school stuff. So when CATS starts in with all his - "we will see if these new school things last" - he is just wrong.

Just look at the discussion on the board about spin rates and velocity and tunneling and .... If I told you that there was this RH prospect throwing low nineties with average spin rates and a three pitch mix - you would wonder why I was bothering. A yester-years MLB starter that would not even get drafted today.

 

[jup]

I think I understand. You're saying analytics prove that numbers like HR rate don't "stabilize" until a pitcher has faced 1,320 batters, which equates to roughly 300 innings. That's what the Baseball Prospectus guy says. So we can't get excited about Civale giving up two home runs in his first 54 innings because he'll need to pitch six times that many innings before the numbers will be relevant.

That's what the analytics says. But is it relevant to simply look at what a guy is throwing - the velocity, command, depth of break, and pitch variation and get a good idea of his future success based on his stuff? And what if after 10 starts he's in the top 1% in barrel rate? Could that be an accident? Unlike BABIP there's zero luck involved in that. Ok, he only faced 227 batters. He needs to face over a thousand more before we know anything according to BP.

If he can throw a 92 mph fastball with a spin rate in the 85th percentile and consistently put it on the black while mixing in a curve that has 12% more break than average does that mean anything? Will those pitches be as effective as they were last year or will he need "substantial improvement in several key areas" just to keep up? I understand his sample is too small, but given the quality of his pitches and the success he's had so far against the best offenses in baseball, I'm a little more optimistic that this guy is on track for a pretty good career.

Very relevant, because it tells you a lot about why he is effective. Evaluating pitches in isolation is just MISDIRECTED, because no pitch exists in isolation. They are all relative to the prior one you threw or the next one you will throw. And that is why pitch values are of so little value and discussion of individual stats about a pitch without how it relates to the rest of the arsenal and how it is deployed is somewhat nonsensical.

Bieb's is very effective. It all has to do with the interplay between his FB and SL and what that allows him to do with any other offerings. His slider moves 1 to 1.5 inches horizontally and 0 to 1.5 inches vertically downward (spin induced movement without gravity). To say that a dead straight pitch at 84 to 85 mph would be a problem for a MLB hitter to hit is ridiculous, simply based on the pitch stats alone. But in reality it is. And that is because of the inherent problem of identifying Sliders from FB's.

Has it worked for Bieb's so far ?
Is there any WOW factor to the pitch in isolation ?

That is why one day, if hitters ever get smart, and go to the plate and swing FB, no matter what he throws, OR Slider no matter what he throws, Bieb's will be in DEEP SHIT. Because there is nothing inherently hard about hitting either of his offerings. It is just the idiocy of hitters trying to swing at both of them and not doing a good job at hitting either of them. If they were willing to go to the plate, look like an idiot if he threw them a SL because they were going to swing FB no matter what, or vise versa, they would be right on one of the pitch types, and when they are, they would hit it hard and do serious damage. And it doesn't take many at bats that do damage to wreck a pitchers start.

 

[LL3]

Very relevant, because it tells you a lot about why he is effective. Evaluating pitches in isolation is just MISDIRECTED, because no pitch exists in isolation. They are all relative to the prior one you threw or the next one you will throw. And that is why pitch values are of so little value and discussion of individual stats about a pitch without how it relates to the rest of the arsenal and how it is deployed is somewhat nonsensical.

Bieb's is very effective. It all has to do with the interplay between his FB and SL and what that allows him to do with any other offerings. His slider moves 1 to 1.5 inches horizontally and 0 to 1.5 inches vertically downward (spin induced movement without gravity). To say that a dead straight pitch at 84 to 85 mph would be a problem for a MLB hitter to hit is ridiculous, simply based on the pitch stats alone. But in reality it is. And that is because of the inherent problem of identifying Sliders from FB's.

Has it worked for Bieb's so far ?
Is there any WOW factor to the pitch in isolation ?

That is why one day, if hitters ever get smart, and go to the plate and swing FB, no matter what he throws, OR Slider no matter what he throws, Bieb's will be in DEEP SHIT. Because there is nothing inherently hard about hitting either of his offerings. It is just the idiocy of hitters trying to swing at both of them and not doing a good job at hitting either of them. If they were willing to go to the plate, look like an idiot if he threw them a SL because they were going to swing FB no matter what, or vise versa, they would be right on one of the pitch types, and when they are, they would hit it hard and do serious damage. And it doesn't take many at bats that do damage to wreck a pitchers start.

Interesting stuff...do you feel any of the hitters today currently employ this “swing at just one speed/type of pitch every time” technique? Just bravado holding them back? ...cannot all be stupid/ignorant, right?

 

[jup]

Interesting stuff...do you feel any of the hitters today currently employ this “swing at just one speed/type of pitch every time” technique? Just bravado holding them back? ...cannot all be stupid/ignorant, right?

Most often you hear of them called guess hitters. Guys that guess what pitch is coming and swing at that no matter what is thrown. And NO I do not know of a hitter that approaches it that way on every pitch of every at bat against a particular pitcher. But a guess hitter isn't a whole lot different in many ways.

Eddie Rosario is a very good example of a guess hitter. He will pick a pitch, swing that speed and profile no matter what is coming. That is why you will see him hit certain pitches you just can't believe he could hit. Cutters coming right at him (and would hit him dead in the ribs or back, not on the hands) that he pulls over the right field wall. He guessed cutter, and swung cutter no matter what. Hit a pitch nowhere close to the strike zone for a homerun.

With Bieb's he alternates his slider and FB to keep anyone from being able to get too many on either. Rarely (if ever) backs to backs to backs a pitch, because it is the combination of the two that is effective not a given one. They are linked and need to be looked at as a pair. And for most hitters, if they went to the plate and swung one or the other, over a 3 pitch sequence, they would likely get the right one at least once. But that is very difficult for a hitter and especially to coordinate it through multiple hitters in a lineup.

The Dodgers employee a very similar strategy in a different way. There are many pitchers they face (RH against RH) where they will just not swing at anything that starts on the inner 3rd of the plate. And will swing FB at everything else. It has to do with the way the pitcher profiles. But for those at bats against those pitchers, they are swinging FB at anything that starts on the outer 2/3rds of the plate without concern for what the pitch actually is. And the whole intent is to do serious damage when they get the pitch that matches what they are swinging. ADVANCED ANALYTICS AT WORK (just for CATS), because all the odds and percentages doing that favors them in those match ups. Now does every hitter in the lineup pull it off ???? NO - but enough do that their hitters do enough damage that the win goes up on the scoreboard and the HR totals keep climbing.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

@jup when you shorten Bieber, why do you add an apostrophe?

It's like a nagging hangnail every time I see it. Either go full, standard and correct with "Bieber," or shorten it to "Biebs" without adding an erroneous apostraphe!

Ok, now that I've kicked the kids off my lawn, we can return to our regularly scheduled programming.

 

[Derek]

Interesting stuff...do you feel any of the hitters today currently employ this “swing at just one speed/type of pitch every time” technique? Just bravado holding them back? ...cannot all be stupid/ignorant, right?

There's no issue with going up and sitting on a single pitch, but you have to adjust depending on the count.

Once you get behind in the count and it becomes really tough to sit on a single pitch without putting yourself in a position to give away an easy out without making the pitcher work at all.

It's a big reason why the result of the first pitch creates such a disparity in a hitter's success.

 

[jup]

@jup when you shorten Bieber, why do you add an apostrophe?

It's like a nagging hangnail every time I see it. Either go full, standard and correct with "Bieber," or shorten it to "Biebs" without adding an erroneous apostraphe!

Ok, now that I've kicked the kids off my lawn, we can return to our regularly scheduled programming.

Will try to mind my apostrophe's Rafter's - Ha Ha Ha

Sorry, I couldn't resist

 

[Randolphkeys]

Your application of these stats is not correct. It’s not that hitters never “figured them out”. They improved! From 2013 to 2014, Kluber increased his whiff% by a substantial amount, mostly due to the development of his slurvey pitch. He also almost cut his HR/FB ratio almost in half during his breakout year (it returned to normal levels in years since).

This is all we’re saying, Civale and Plesac were effective last year, but they won’t continue to be without substantial improvements in some key areas.

I’ve already posted about the stabilization threshold multiple times, but here it is again:

Baseball Therapy: Should I Worry About My Favorite Pitcher? - Baseball Prospectus

When pitching stats stabilize.

www.baseballprospectus.com

In short, you need at least two years worth of starts (300+ innings minimum) before you’ll see numbers like BABIP and HR/FB stabilize (which then stabilizes ERA, FIP, xFIP, and any other number that derives from the aforementioned stats).

So, no. After a little more than 100 innings I don’t think we’ll know much at all about Plesac or Civale’s long-term outlook.

Appreciate that article. I'm a casual baseball fan and I spend most of my downtime on hoops and football. I'm really optimistic about Plesac and Civale after last season and had no idea why people are so unsure about them. I might just have rose colored glasses regarding Indians young starting pitching since they have handled their prospects so well in the past.

 

[Derek]

Appreciate that article. I'm a casual baseball fan and I spend most of my downtime on hoops and football. I'm really optimistic about Plesac and Civale after last season and had no idea why people are so unsure about them. I might just have rose colored glasses regarding Indians young starting pitching since they have handled their prospects so well in the past.

Yeah, it's not to say they won't turn out fine, but if both of their BABIP (batting average on balls in play) hold up over the next decade, it would put them in the 99.9th percentile. While it seems incredibly unlikely that they are that damn good in that regard, it does seem possible that they're both good at limiting BABIP to below league-average, but simply being good would still result in significant regression over time.

That's why I believe it's important to see them both increase the rate at which they make hitters swing and miss. Both had subpar rates last year.

Anything can happen when the ball is put in play, so limiting the number of times that happens limits the possible number of bad things that can happen.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

That is why one day, if hitters ever get smart, and go to the plate and swing FB, no matter what he throws, OR Slider no matter what he throws, Bieb's will be in DEEP SHIT.

This sounds like a stupid question (and it probably is) but if hitters swing FB every time they'll miss the slider, curve and change-up every time but hit a fastball or two hard. In that case, wouldn't Bieber think, "This guy can hit a fastball but can't touch my breaking stuff. He's never going to see another fastball from me?"

Also, don't pitchers and catchers make a priority out of reading hitter's swings? So if Bieber throws a heater just out of the zone and the hitter fouls it back but it's obvious his swing was timed to a fastball, won't he get nothing but breaking stuff until they see a different swing?

I'm just skeptical that the rest of the league can easily get Bieber in DEEP SHIT simply by assuming every pitch is a fastball (or slider or curve) and swinging appropriately. Are you saying that you’re the only guy who’s thought of this approach and if the league adopted it Bieber would go from being a starter in the All-Star game to being in deep shit?

I guess it’s a good thing you’re smarter than all the hitters and hitting coaches in the major leagues. I sure hope none of them are reading this forum or it’s bye-bye Biebs (no apostrophe required).

 

[ncinthenext3]

I hope Bieber comes out strong tonight. He's my Fanduel starter, too.

 

[LL3]

There's no issue with going up and sitting on a single pitch, but you have to adjust depending on the count.

Once you get behind in the count and it becomes really tough to sit on a single pitch without putting yourself in a position to give away an easy out without making the pitcher work at all.

It's a big reason why the result of the first pitch creates such a disparity in a hitter's success.

Sure, I understand and acknowledge what you are saying here, just seemed Jup was exploring a slightly different concept.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Yeah, it's not to say they won't turn out fine, but if both of their BABIP (batting average on balls in play) hold up over the next decade, it would put them in the 99.9th percentile. While it seems incredibly unlikely that they are that damn good in that regard, it does seem possible that they're both good at limiting BABIP to below league-average, but simply being good would still result in significant regression over time.

That's why I believe it's important to see them both increase the rate at which they make hitters swing and miss. Both had subpar rates last year.

Anything can happen when the ball is put in play, so limiting the number of times that happens limits the possible number of bad things that can happen.

I don't get where the 99.9 percentile for BABIP comes in. Civale ranked 45th and Plesac 55th in BABIP last year among pitchers with over 40 innings pitched (398 total). That puts Civale in the 88th percentile and Plesac in the 86th. Neither was even in the top 10% much less the top 1%.

The top two Indians pitchers in that category were Tyler Clippard (4th at .204) and Nick Goody (35th at .245). The Indians let both of them go, possibly because they figured they won’t be able to repeat those BABIP numbers. Clippard’s ERA was 2.90 against an xFIP of 4.94, so it appears he was very lucky. Goody had similar numbers.

Wittgren (.253) was between Civale (.250) and Plesac (.255). So Civale and Plesac ranked 3rd and 5th on the Indians in BABIP. They weren't even the best on their team.

I suspect it was a combination of some good luck and the Indians defense being very good. Neither of them pitched the first half of the season when we had Martin, Bauers, and CarGo roaming the outfield at various times. By the second half they were gone or benched and we had Mercado, Naquin, Luplow and Allen covering a lot more turf than was covered in the first half. Oops, I almost forgot Puig.

It would be interesting to compare the BABIP of Beiber in the first and second half to test the theory.

That’s why I’m so excited about the Indians outfield from a defensive standpoint. With some combination of Mercado, Zimmer, Naquin, Luplow, and DeShields or Allen out there even minor league pitchers like Civale and Plesac look good. Not to mention the infield and our elite defensive catcher. Bieber could have an even better season. His BABIP was .296 but he gave up too many dingers (16.1% HR/FB).

Maybe you were referring to HR/FB ratio where Civale was 9th out of 398, putting him just outside the top 2%. His secret last year was avoiding barreled balls (top 1% according to Lada) and having an excellent defense to gobble up all those soft and medium hit balls. Can he do it again this year? I have to admit the top 2% in HR/FB seems unlikely. The eight guys who finished ahead of him were all relievers, by the way.

 

[jup]

This sounds like a stupid question (and it probably is) but if hitters swing FB every time they'll miss the slider, curve and change-up every time but hit a fastball or two hard. In that case, wouldn't Bieber think, "This guy can hit a fastball but can't touch my breaking stuff. He's never going to see another fastball from me?"

Also, don't pitchers and catchers make a priority out of reading hitter's swings? So if Bieber throws a heater just out of the zone and the hitter fouls it back but it's obvious his swing was timed to a fastball, won't he get nothing but breaking stuff until they see a different swing?

I'm just skeptical that the rest of the league can easily get Bieber in DEEP SHIT simply by assuming every pitch is a fastball (or slider or curve) and swinging appropriately. Are you saying that you’re the only guy who’s thought of this approach and if the league adopted it Bieber would go from being a starter in the All-Star game to being in deep shit?

I guess it’s a good thing you’re smarter than all the hitters and hitting coaches in the major leagues. I sure hope none of them are reading this forum or it’s bye-bye Biebs (no apostrophe required).

Thanks for the dig.

But notice I never said that. Or implied that I was the only one, or that I am smarter than anyone else.

It is a way of explaining something without have to right a thesis - not interested in wasting my time doing that. In fact I was a little bit hesitant to even spend the time I did because this is the type thing that most usually comes back.

It would be very hard to have hitters that are just not geared up this way to follow this approach steadfastly. So is it reasonable to think it will happen on a wide scale basis - NO. Does it explain theory associated with pitch sequencing strategy - YES.

So just chalk it up to me blowing hot smoke Wham, and it won't have to bother you. You can just look at it that way and move along. But for someone who asked me a question that I am trying to explain in a brief and succinct way ...

Do pitchers and catchers try read hitters - YES. Do they recognize (often to late) that a team is sitting on a pitch - YES. Can they recognize that different hitters up and down the lineup are sitting on different pitches and flip flopping in different at bats - I guess if they are mind readers.