1 by land, 2 by sea, 3 Baerga
- Jan 10, 2009
- Reaction score
I already made multiple extensive posts on the topic. If you're not going to bother to actually read them, why should I continue speaking in circles with you?I don't get where the 99.9 percentile for BABIP comes in. Civale ranked 45th and Plesac 55th in BABIP last year among pitchers with over 40 innings pitched (398 total). That puts Civale in the 88th percentile and Plesac in the 86th. Neither was even in the top 10% much less the top 1%.
The top two Indians pitchers in that category were Tyler Clippard (4th at .204) and Nick Goody (35th at .245). The Indians let both of them go, possibly because they figured they won’t be able to repeat those BABIP numbers. Clippard’s ERA was 2.90 against an xFIP of 4.94, so it appears he was very lucky. Goody had similar numbers.
Wittgren (.253) was between Civale (.250) and Plesac (.255). So Civale and Plesac ranked 3rd and 5th on the Indians in BABIP. They weren't even the best on their team.
I suspect it was a combination of some good luck and the Indians defense being very good. Neither of them pitched the first half of the season when we had Martin, Bauers, and CarGo roaming the outfield at various times. By the second half they were gone or benched and we had Mercado, Naquin, Luplow and Allen covering a lot more turf than was covered in the first half. Oops, I almost forgot Puig.
It would be interesting to compare the BABIP of Beiber in the first and second half to test the theory.
That’s why I’m so excited about the Indians outfield from a defensive standpoint. With some combination of Mercado, Zimmer, Naquin, Luplow, and DeShields or Allen out there even minor league pitchers like Civale and Plesac look good. Not to mention the infield and our elite defensive catcher. Bieber could have an even better season. His BABIP was .296 but he gave up too many dingers (16.1% HR/FB).
Maybe you were referring to HR/FB ratio where Civale was 9th out of 398, putting him just outside the top 2%. His secret last year was avoiding barreled balls (top 1% according to Lada) and having an excellent defense to gobble up all those soft and medium hit balls. Can he do it again this year? I have to admit the top 2% in HR/FB seems unlikely. The eight guys who finished ahead of him were all relievers, by the way.
I did not misspeak.
If Civale and Plesac maintain their BABIP from last year over the next decade they will be in the 99.9th percentile. Nobody sniffed their numbers over the last 10 years.
Feel free to actually go back and read my posts, most of which were in response to you with links included.